Darran Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 Going up early with my Saturday bets this week as bar the odd game at Step 3 the only league action is in the National League this weekend as Step 2 sides enter the FA Cup. I am hopeful that at least Bet365 will price up the FA Cup Thursday/Friday so if anything catches my eye then I will add the bets later in the week. In the National League 4 bets catch my eye. Halifax v Barnet Granted I am writing this before Barnet play Aldershot on Tuesday night, but I think Barnet are worth backing here. They missed a couple of games over the international weekend so I don't expect them to be a mid-week game to make too much of a difference. Halifax might be 6 points ahead of their opponents, but they have lost two more matches than them. Fair play to Halifax who have had an incredible start to the season and one I certainly didn't see coming, but they have lost their last two games and I just wonder if they are about to start dropping down the table. Barnet have only lost to Dover this season and are currently unbeaten in their 4 away games. They look as if they can be potential title challengers this term around and although they might lack a star striker, they have scored a goal in every game apart from the one they lost. Barnet look value to me at 101/50 to make it 3 defeats on the bounce for Halifax. Solihull v Yeovil I haven't been overly kind to Yeovil this season, but fair play to them they have won 4 on the bounce now and they really do look over priced to make it 5 on Saturday. They are looking especially strong up front at the moment and have scored 9 goals in those 4 wins. It doesn't really make much sense that they can be backed at 17/5 (BetVictor) to beat a side who are in an awful run of form at the moment. Solihull are still favourites for the title, but they haven't even been playing like a team who can reach the play-offs let alone the title at the moment. They have only picked up a point in their last 5 league games and as I have mentioned on here before their defence has been particular bad at times. However on Saturday it was both ends of the pitch that were the issues as they couldn't even muster a shot on target as well as conceding 3 goals. I'm sure they will turn it around at some point, but for me the prices are very wrong here and Yeovil should be around 7/4 shots not over 3/1. Sutton v Chesterfield Very simple here as I am going with the draw. Chesterfield did win for the first time on Saturday which will come as a big relief for their fans and manager John Sheridan who is under big pressure. I did consider putting Chesterfield up as that win might well see them kick on, but they have drawn 5 times and Sutton have drawn 6 times and have yet to win at home. At 121/50 it seems worth a speculative punt that two of the draw specialists in the league can draw again. Torquay v Dagenham & Redbridge Will the problem I have of calling Dagenham right continue here? Hopefully not as I think they look a big price at 27/10 with Marathon to win this. I have been a bit scathing of Peter Taylor and it did look at one stage like he could be in trouble as Dagenham got off to a slow start, but they have really turned it around and have put in some impressive performances of late. They are now unbeaten in 7 games and I was impressed with them last week when they played Bromley on BT Sport. Bromley deserved the point, but the equaliser did come with basically the last kick of the game. Beating a good Hartlepool side 3-1 on Saturday was a decent effort and it is hard to see why they should be so big to beat a Torquay side who are a bit in and out as their record of 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses suggests. They have only won once in their last 5 games and they were the first team to lose to Chesterfield this season on Saturday. Dagenham look the stronger side to me and although their have not been many goals in their away games they can edge it for me. Again like Yeovil I would make them around 7/4 shots. Barnet 1pt @ 101/50 with Marathon Yeovil 2pts @ 17/5 with BetVictor Sutton v Chesterfield draw 1pt @ 12/5 with Marathon Dagenham & Redbridge 2pts @ 11/4 with Marathon Neubs, Mindfulness and blueboy199 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindfulness Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 1 hour ago, Darran said: Dagenham & Redbridge 2pts @ 11/4 with Marathon Papa Lazarou 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted September 16, 2019 Author Share Posted September 16, 2019 Barnet have been searching for a striker and finally they have found one as they have signed Alfie Pavey from Dover which seems a good move to me. Just slightly annoying they did it just after I wrote the preview! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted September 16, 2019 Author Share Posted September 16, 2019 The National League has been more bizarre than ever so far this season. At the start of the season we pretty much had 3 favourites in Notts County, AFC Fylde and Chesterfield. After 10/11 games the last two of those are currently in the relegation zone and Notts County have are in 13th 10 points off the leaders but have only won 3 of their games. Wrexham were just behind them in the betting at they sit in 19th just one point above Fylde. All that means is the bookmakers haven't a clue who to make favourites as the top 7 were all pretty big prices before the season started. The fact Solihull currently head the betting despite the fact they have only picked up 1 point in their last 5 games and are 10 points off the leaders sums up the fact the bookies haven't a clue. I personally would make Bromley favourites and fortunately they were one of my 3 bets before a ball was kicked. Still unbeaten and just 1 point behind leaders Woking they looked nicely poised to mount a serious title bid. Woking and Halifax are into single figures in places having had amazing starts to the season. I put them both up to be relegated, but it is hard to see either of them dropping off that much. Indeed I was impressed by Woking against Hartlepool on BT Sport last week and if they continue in that sort of form I wouldn't rule out a play-off bid. However neither team will win the title and they are both to short. Yeovil are up to 4th and look stronger than they did at the start of the season. Maidenhead are 6th, but even Alan Devonshire won't keep them up that high and Dover in 7th have just lost Alfie Pavey and seem to be struggling to win at home. Dagenham & Redbridge are currently 5th and they interest me a lot more than they did at the start of the season. As mentioned above I didn't fancy them at all pre-season and didn't think Taylor would last, but they have been looking good in recent weeks and maybe they do have it in them to be contenders. Even so at this stage to me they look more play-off hopes than title contenders. Notts County are probably fairly well placed as they should continue to improve and in reality might not have too much ground to make up on the title contenders if Woking and Halifax do drop away. I was tempted to put them up as a bet, but for now I will leave them. Instead there is one team I am going to add to me AP portfolio and that is the team I nearly put up in the first place Barnet. Signing Alfie Pavey looks a good bit of business as they needed a goalscorer and they have only lost one of their opening 9 games. The fact they have two games in hand means they have gone under the radar a little I think and even if they just won one of them they would only be 5 points behind Woking. Defensively they look strong and to me they now look to have one of the best squads in the division. It does look a hard league to call, but at 16/1 they look the best value at this stage. I am happy with Bromley obviously and Hartlepool have potential as well. As for Wrexham whilst I haven't entirely given up they do look in a bit of a mess at the moment and things clearly aren't right. They have a talented squad but are just under performing right now. Barnet 1pt e/w @ 16/1 with William Hill, Betfair, Paddy Power and Betway Mindfulness, Bedlam, yossa6133 and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted September 19, 2019 Author Share Posted September 19, 2019 No fa cup prices as of yet so looks like it will be tomorrow which is annoying. Johnmccain and Mindfulness 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted September 19, 2019 Author Share Posted September 19, 2019 Added a post to the ante post thread for those who have backed Billericay as advised Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindfulness Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 @Darran With regards to the FA Cup qualifiers, do you see any value with Cirencester @ 3.40 (I've been told Chippenham have poor record there) and Truro City @ 4.00 away to Hereford FC? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted September 20, 2019 Author Share Posted September 20, 2019 So Bet365 have priced up the games they are betting in play on so its a bit of a random list out of all the ties. The FA Cup is the one time I allow myself to do a short priced acca so I have put a 1pt 5 fold together for the games 365 have priced up which pays just over 4/1. They are York to win at Irlam (in the live game covered by the BBC), Dulwich to beat Bognor, Wealdstone to win at Farnborough, Maidstone to beat Cheshunt and Tiverton to beat Bristol Manor Farm. Torque and Mindfulness 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted September 20, 2019 Author Share Posted September 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, Mindfulness said: @Darran With regards to the FA Cup qualifiers, do you see any value with Cirencester @ 3.40 (I've been told Chippenham have poor record there) and Truro City @ 4.00 away to Hereford FC? Couldn't care less what a team's record is at another team's as it is meaningless. Could be worth having a look at their record on a 3g pitch as Ciren have one of them but even then past last season that wouldn't be overly reliable. They have yet to win away from home having drawn 3 and lost 3 so I did have a look but I actually think the underdogs rarely seem to be value at this stage and the price looks tight enough given we are talking about a 2 step gap. I did also look at Truro, but again 3/1 seems tight enough. I would probably want a couple of points on that to want to back it. Mindfulness 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mijOsim Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 46 minutes ago, Darran said: So Bet365 have priced up the games they are betting in play on so its a bit of a random list out of all the ties. The FA Cup is the one time I allow myself to do a short priced acca so I have put a 1pt 5 fold together for the games 365 have priced up which pays just over 4/1. They are York to win at Irlam (in the live game covered by the BBC), Dulwich to beat Bognor, Wealdstone to win at Farnborough, Maidstone to beat Cheshunt and Tiverton to beat Bristol Manor Farm. Mate from this matches what do you think is the safest ? O Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted September 20, 2019 Author Share Posted September 20, 2019 10 minutes ago, mijOsim said: Mate from this matches what do you think is the safest ? O The bet is what it is. I think they will all win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindfulness Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 2 hours ago, Darran said: Couldn't care less what a team's record is at another team's as it is meaningless. Could be worth having a look at their record on a 3g pitch as Ciren have one of them but even then past last season that wouldn't be overly reliable. They have yet to win away from home having drawn 3 and lost 3 so I did have a look but I actually think the underdogs rarely seem to be value at this stage and the price looks tight enough given we are talking about a 2 step gap. I did also look at Truro, but again 3/1 seems tight enough. I would probably want a couple of points on that to want to back it. Ok cheers, I will avoid both since they are not going beyond expected value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted September 21, 2019 Author Share Posted September 21, 2019 Nuneaton v Alvechurch One final bet for today and it comes in the BetVictor Southern Premier Central. I opposed Nuneaton on Tuesday but a few changes and they looked a much improved side in thrashing Stourbridge 4-0. That could well mean they are worth following closely as it might be the changing point in their season. At the very least they ought to be winning this and look a nice price at 5/4 with Marathon to do so. Alvechurch look a shadow of the team who reached the play-offs last season as they have only won twice in the league and they were against the bottom two sides Hitchin and Leiston. One of the draws was against 18th placed Peterborough Sports so they have struggled against teams higher up in the table. Apart from the opening day of the season the 4 losses Nuneaton have had have all come against teams higher than them in the table. I think Nuneaton should be odds on for this and they look a decent bet. Nuneaton 2.5pts @ 5/4 with Marathon yossa6133 and Mindfulness 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doverwhite Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 On 9/16/2019 at 7:00 PM, Darran said: Barnet have been searching for a striker and finally they have found one as they have signed Alfie Pavey from Dover which seems a good move to me. Just slightly annoying they did it just after I wrote the preview! Pavey is a lazy player without any work ethic, granted he’ll get a few at Barnet, but I’m pleased he’s gone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yossa6133 Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 FA Cup acca looking good if Tiverton can turn it round from 2-1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yossa6133 Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 Bollocks, 3-1 now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted September 21, 2019 Author Share Posted September 21, 2019 7 hours ago, doverwhite said: Pavey is a lazy player without any work ethic, granted he’ll get a few at Barnet, but I’m pleased he’s gone. Interesting you are pleased a player who you think will score a few goals for a rival team has gone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted September 21, 2019 Author Share Posted September 21, 2019 2 hours ago, yossa6133 said: FA Cup acca looking good if Tiverton can turn it round from 2-1. That's why its hard to land accas but frustrating as the others won with ease. Still nice to get a profit after a tough couple of sessions. freddie01 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doverwhite Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 18 hours ago, Darran said: Interesting you are pleased a player who you think will score a few goals for a rival team has gone. He’s a striker, so by rights he should score a few, but he’s not the striker Barnet are looking for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted September 22, 2019 Author Share Posted September 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, doverwhite said: He’s a striker, so by rights he should score a few, but he’s not the striker Barnet are looking for. If he scores a few for them then he is the striker they are looking for. Anyway I think its a good signing and would have backed them even if he hadn't signed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted September 22, 2019 Author Share Posted September 22, 2019 Had it flagged up to me by @Shipsupstreets about the Biggleswade v Chertsey game in the FA Cup today. It would seem Bet365 have priced the game up based on it being Biggleswade Town playing and not Biggleswade FC. Town play at Step 3 but FC play at Step4 the same level as Chertsey. Chertsey won the FA Vase last year and are 8th in their league having lost just once. FC are 15th in their league having won just once. 365 have Chertsey at 3/1 but the person flagging the bet up to me reckons they should be 13/8. That is why I think 365 have priced up the wrong team as Chertsey at 3s to beat Town would seem about right to me. Might be available with other bookies as well. I have had a point on freddie01 and yossa6133 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sb1961 Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 Darran , many thanks to @Shipsupstreets and your goodself for passing that info on . nice to get one over the bookies , does not happen too often !! yossa6133 and Darran 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yossa6133 Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 Nice one, thanks for passing on, saved my weekend! Darran 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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