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LePapo last won the day on February 27 2017

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  1. Ufff bad loss here, Russian defence all over the place and Scotland punishing every Russian mistake.. Hastings pretty accurate today. Failed analysis from my part. Have a bet remaining on fiji -1.5 tries...
  2. For tomorrow, I’ll just bet on Scotland-Russia. The spread a week or so ago was 43,5 which was huge for this match. I just forgot to bet on that and now it’s around 33-35 I think which I think is a bit high but not enough to get involved. Scotland is resting their main players for their crucial match against Japan and Russia imo has performed really well during this WC. So I can’t see this being a blowout like SA or NZ against Canada and Namibia. I’m on -5.5 conversions @2.20. Laidlaw is not playing so it should be Adam Hastings who kicks the conversions and penalties. I did some research on his stats and he has an all time record of 52/72 conversions , about a 72.20% conversion rate. The other one that might kick conversions as well is Peter Horne but according to the stats he has a lower conversion rate than Hastings. On the other hand, Russia have shown little in attack in this WC, their one try came after a mistake in the opening match so I expect little from them tomorrow and their Fly half Kushnarev is not starting tomorrow and it will be Gaisin who kicks the penalties and conversions (I imagine) I found he has an all time record of 18/25 = 72%. So to have +5.5 conversions with that conversion rate (72% for both) there should be around 8-9 tries which I just think it’s quite a lot for this match. Also I’m on no team to score 40 points at 2.25. Both teams have been really poor offensively in this WC and even if Scotland manage to score a few tries early in the match I can see them playing with less intensity and resting more players once they got the bonus point. 4 tries are 20 points if they are converted it’s 28, still 12 points away from 40... Argentina Usa: nothing that I particularly like. Argentina are already out but a victory against Usa will guarantee qualification for the next WC. I read that there’s still some motivation as it’s probably the last world cup match for several players.. If I had to bet, I’d be more on the argentinian side Wales Fiji: I have an outright on Fiji , I need them not to score 3 tries. Regarding the match not much appeals here. Wales have not disappointed in the WC and I think they can easily beat France in the QF. So all in all it’s just two bets for me tomorrow both with Unibet -5.5 conversions (2.20) No team to score 40 points (2.25)
  3. First shock of the tournament today! Matavesi had a shocker today scoring just 1/3 conversions and missing a penalty... same for Volavola who missed two conversions which eventually costed them the match. Probably not betting for tomorrow's matches, maybe backing USA on the handicap is the most interesting option as teams have struggled to cover big handicaps but I'm not entirely conviced.. Any suggestions for tomorrow?
  4. Still can't believe how russia didn't score a try with two more players for almost ten minutes... I don't think tomorrow match will be a blow out, most of the players that took part against Australia are either on the bench or were left out of the squad. Still there's a gap in quality between Fiji's second team and Uruguay's first. The spread looks about right to me.. so not bet for me on this market. There's one bet I really like which is -5.5 conversions at 2.45, -6.5 conversions is available at 1.65, I've even seen one bookie offering 1.45 on -7.5 conversions which to me is value. No match has seen 8 conversions in this world cup so far, and the only ones with more than 5 were ITA-NAM and WAL-GEO.. Wales and Italy have accurate shooters. Tomorrow, Volavola is not starting and I imagine it will be Matavesi who'll shoot the penalties and conversions. From what I could find, he has an all time record of 17/25 conversions which equals to 68%. Alright but far from outstanding. In Uruguay, I found that Berchesi has around a 73% conversion rate (8/11). It's true that the sample is not big enough to correctly assess the shooting ratio but it can show more or less some trends. Then with a 70% conversion rate, there should be around 8-9 tries to have over 5.5 conversions.. The spread on tries is currently at 7.5 (1.80-1.90 more or less), so -5.5 conversions at 2.45 represents nice value to me. I think -6.5 is a safer option but would have loved higher odds than 1.65... -5.5 conversions at 2.45 with Unibet
  5. solid bets all of them, russia first team to score 10 points at 9/1 is just massive value. I will bet on that. I'm on +3.5 penalties scored as well, weather forecast says it will rain tomorrow afternoon and evening.. so fly halves might have a big role in the match.
  6. after a solid opening match, i’m now 2-2 with overall less than a unit lost. ive bet on russia +29.5 against samoa, i haven’t seen yet a blowout in this world cup and teams are struggling to cover big handicaps (italy , england, japan). i was quite impressed by the russian side on friday. they put up a decent performance for about 50 minutes against japan. samoa is not a team that scores lots of points , in fact their highest score in the last 3 years was against usa B (48-26). so i think a 29.5 is quite a big task for the samoan side. had russia not play just a couple of days before the match this would definitely be a full stake bet for me. also i think the current handicap on argentina tonga is quite short. tonga was really poor yesterday against england, they never were a threat in attack and if england hadn’t made lots of handlings mistakes this would have been a huge loss for tonga. on the other side , argentina needs to win this match to keep alive any chance they might have to qualify to the QF. in theory they should go all in to win this match and to get the bonus point. i’ve already bet on -29.5 a days ago but the spread now is set at 23.5-24.5.. i’ll just wait the confirmation of the line ups ... i’m quite tempted on the handicap for uruguay against fiji as well. the line is currently at 31.5 i think and this might be a bit high given that fiji play on saturday. other than that, the outright bets are going better than expected. this is so far a low scoring world cup. i saw today one bookie is offering 1.80 on -308.5 tries. i think they just didn’t update the odds so i’m almost certainly betting on that.
  7. tough loss for argentina and for me. referee not spot on to me but you can’t give away like that 40 minutes in a world cup. still fuming about the decision to kick the penalty instead of going for the line out especially because their maul was solid during the match. i’m not betting on SA NZ, i’ll just enjoy a nice match of rugby. i like your bet on a yellow card to be shown , good luck i imagine now argentina will do everything to get a bonus point against tonga and usa. can’t see france putting a fight against aus or wales. i would love to see argentina and england getting through the group phase
  8. 2 out of 2 for me. The handicap was never in doubt maybe a bit during the first 10 minutes of the second half but overall it was a solid bet. +2.5 scored penalties looked nowhere near to be a winner at half time but eventually it was.. Not quite sure for tomorrow yet , the handicap on SA looks the most solid bet for me but might risk a bit more and bet on 1-12 points margin on SA. I'm tempted to back argentina, i think there's been a bit of overreaction as they've lost 10 of their last 11 matches but truth is they've played 6 of them against NZ, SA and Australia and one more against barbarians.. Argentina usually overperforms during the WC, also they play with lot of pride which might be the differential in the match. they have nico sanchez who is more accurate than a sniper, so they should be fine with penalties and conversions.. Also, i've made an early bet on Arg -29.5 against Tonga.. the 92-7 loss against the AB shows how weak is their defense.. I'll skip aus fiji from the betting persective...
  9. I'm tempted by the 39-40 points handicap on Russia as well and +2.5 penalties to be scored at 2.20. I can see the russians deciding to shoot instead of going for a line out if the score is quite close or even japan early in the match just to be ahead in the score. They played a test match back in novemeber and japan won 32-27 after russia wasted a 22-10 lead at the first half. 7 penalties were scored in the match which would cover the spread...(although circumstances now are totally different) I think there's too much pressure on Japan, I even read today (cant remember if it was the captain or the coach) that said they were not favourites to win this match!! it can be a long match for japan if they dont get an early lead which will take some pressure off them. I think they'll eventually outclass russia but can't see them winning by more than 40 tomorrow.
  10. nice job mate, my bookie is offering 1.75 on less than 242 conversions to be scored which according to your stats is just a massive price. will have a bit of research myself but definitely i'm betting something on that ! also i'm probably betting on georgia to score +7.5 tries and uruguay to score -4.5 tries, i'm tempted as well by argentina to score +13.5 tries. originally i had planned to have a bet on japan to qualify but i'm not conviced, i will just follow them closely and maybe i'll have a bet on their match against scotland.
  11. My bookie offers Verstappen to win -2.5 races at 2.10 and that will be my main outright bet. RB is just behind Ferrari and Mercedes. 1.75 on RB to win under 4.5 races looks value to me but not enough to bet on that. At 1.9ish i'd bet some money. 5 units on Verstappen to win -2.5 races at 2.10
  12. Liverpool to qualify looks massive value to me, the team is just flying now. They are at 2.8ish to do it so that'll be my main bet for the quarterfinals. They beat city 4-3 early this year and i think the team has improved since then, now they have van dijk, salah is messi now, lovren looks like a decent centre back now. I'll wait the international matches to finish to bet on them (in case salah gets injured) but all in all 2.8ish is a generous price to me, also aguero is injured , he's supposed to be fit for this match but he'll lack some playing time IMO. Liverpool DNB for the first leg looks a decent bet as well. 3 units on Liverpool to qualify at 2.85 2.5 units on Liverpool DNB at 2.00
  13. I had a bet on Edmund to beat Dimitrov in Brisbane haha . Tennis is an incredible sport, Anderson led him 2-1 in the first round and was a break up in the fifth but somehow managed to lost it, Basilashvili should have beaten him as well and Seppi was in full control for one set and a half but then he entered in some self destruction mode. And today he beats easily the number 3 in the world and he is now 6 sets away from winning a grand slam. just amazing
  14. F**k Seppi just checked out after the second set. Good run for the outright on him but a bit dissapointed at the same time as he was set and break up in the second set and he was playing better than Edmund. Schwartzman played a good match today just rafa served so well on break points, now against cilic for a place in the last four. For the other round of 16 matches maybe no tiebreaks in Djokovic-Chung is the most attractive bet... but overall prices are right
  15. Impressive from Berdych, although I don't even consider him anymore to go deep in big tournaments he always manages to find a way to reach at least QF/SF in grand slams and it's been 8 years in a row doing so. He has one more match to play to reach QF but it's a winnable match for him so hats off. Thiem has every chance to reach the QF. I think it would be too much for Chung to beat Djokovic. Regarding today's matches, I had thought about no tiebreak in nadal-schwartzman however odds are low imo. I imagine PCB run will end today. Kyrgios-Dimitrov is the best match of the day. I was expecting a more convicing performance from Kyrgios in the last round but he couldn't outplay tsonga and beat him with 3 tiebreaks. It should've been a 5 setter but tsonga threw away a 5-2 lead in the last TB. Dimitrov has a good serve so this match might feature a couple of tiebreaks. This should be a close match and I think there's slight value on dimitrov however not worthy enough to risk my money. And finally I'm backing seppi to get past edmund but with low stakes. Edmund physical condition is in doubt after that 5 setter under almost 40 degrees. I was expecting hotter conditions today to bet a bigger amount here but let's just keep it reasonable. Also the 40/1 on Seppi to reach the last four is alive and kicking so no need to overbet on him. 1.5 units on Seppi to beat Edmund at 3.15
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