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LePapo

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LePapo last won the day on February 27 2017

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About LePapo

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  1. Ufff bad loss here, Russian defence all over the place and Scotland punishing every Russian mistake.. Hastings pretty accurate today. Failed analysis from my part. Have a bet remaining on fiji -1.5 tries...
  2. For tomorrow, I’ll just bet on Scotland-Russia. The spread a week or so ago was 43,5 which was huge for this match. I just forgot to bet on that and now it’s around 33-35 I think which I think is a bit high but not enough to get involved. Scotland is resting their main players for their crucial match against Japan and Russia imo has performed really well during this WC. So I can’t see this being a blowout like SA or NZ against Canada and Namibia. I’m on -5.5 conversions @2.20. Laidlaw is not playing so it should be Adam Hastings who kicks the conversions and penalties. I did some research on h
  3. First shock of the tournament today! Matavesi had a shocker today scoring just 1/3 conversions and missing a penalty... same for Volavola who missed two conversions which eventually costed them the match. Probably not betting for tomorrow's matches, maybe backing USA on the handicap is the most interesting option as teams have struggled to cover big handicaps but I'm not entirely conviced.. Any suggestions for tomorrow?
  4. Still can't believe how russia didn't score a try with two more players for almost ten minutes... I don't think tomorrow match will be a blow out, most of the players that took part against Australia are either on the bench or were left out of the squad. Still there's a gap in quality between Fiji's second team and Uruguay's first. The spread looks about right to me.. so not bet for me on this market. There's one bet I really like which is -5.5 conversions at 2.45, -6.5 conversions is available at 1.65, I've even seen one bookie offering 1.45 on -7.5 conversions which to me is value. No match
  5. solid bets all of them, russia first team to score 10 points at 9/1 is just massive value. I will bet on that. I'm on +3.5 penalties scored as well, weather forecast says it will rain tomorrow afternoon and evening.. so fly halves might have a big role in the match.
  6. after a solid opening match, i’m now 2-2 with overall less than a unit lost. ive bet on russia +29.5 against samoa, i haven’t seen yet a blowout in this world cup and teams are struggling to cover big handicaps (italy , england, japan). i was quite impressed by the russian side on friday. they put up a decent performance for about 50 minutes against japan. samoa is not a team that scores lots of points , in fact their highest score in the last 3 years was against usa B (48-26). so i think a 29.5 is quite a big task for the samoan side. had russia not play just a couple of days before the
  7. tough loss for argentina and for me. referee not spot on to me but you can’t give away like that 40 minutes in a world cup. still fuming about the decision to kick the penalty instead of going for the line out especially because their maul was solid during the match. i’m not betting on SA NZ, i’ll just enjoy a nice match of rugby. i like your bet on a yellow card to be shown , good luck i imagine now argentina will do everything to get a bonus point against tonga and usa. can’t see france putting a fight against aus or wales. i would love to see argentina and england getting through the g
  8. 2 out of 2 for me. The handicap was never in doubt maybe a bit during the first 10 minutes of the second half but overall it was a solid bet. +2.5 scored penalties looked nowhere near to be a winner at half time but eventually it was.. Not quite sure for tomorrow yet , the handicap on SA looks the most solid bet for me but might risk a bit more and bet on 1-12 points margin on SA. I'm tempted to back argentina, i think there's been a bit of overreaction as they've lost 10 of their last 11 matches but truth is they've played 6 of them against NZ, SA and Australia and one more against
  9. I'm tempted by the 39-40 points handicap on Russia as well and +2.5 penalties to be scored at 2.20. I can see the russians deciding to shoot instead of going for a line out if the score is quite close or even japan early in the match just to be ahead in the score. They played a test match back in novemeber and japan won 32-27 after russia wasted a 22-10 lead at the first half. 7 penalties were scored in the match which would cover the spread...(although circumstances now are totally different) I think there's too much pressure on Japan, I even read today (cant remember if it was the captain or
  10. nice job mate, my bookie is offering 1.75 on less than 242 conversions to be scored which according to your stats is just a massive price. will have a bit of research myself but definitely i'm betting something on that ! also i'm probably betting on georgia to score +7.5 tries and uruguay to score -4.5 tries, i'm tempted as well by argentina to score +13.5 tries. originally i had planned to have a bet on japan to qualify but i'm not conviced, i will just follow them closely and maybe i'll have a bet on their match against scotland.
  11. My bookie offers Verstappen to win -2.5 races at 2.10 and that will be my main outright bet. RB is just behind Ferrari and Mercedes. 1.75 on RB to win under 4.5 races looks value to me but not enough to bet on that. At 1.9ish i'd bet some money. 5 units on Verstappen to win -2.5 races at 2.10
  12. Liverpool to qualify looks massive value to me, the team is just flying now. They are at 2.8ish to do it so that'll be my main bet for the quarterfinals. They beat city 4-3 early this year and i think the team has improved since then, now they have van dijk, salah is messi now, lovren looks like a decent centre back now. I'll wait the international matches to finish to bet on them (in case salah gets injured) but all in all 2.8ish is a generous price to me, also aguero is injured , he's supposed to be fit for this match but he'll lack some playing time IMO. Liverpool DNB for the first leg look
  13. I had a bet on Edmund to beat Dimitrov in Brisbane haha . Tennis is an incredible sport, Anderson led him 2-1 in the first round and was a break up in the fifth but somehow managed to lost it, Basilashvili should have beaten him as well and Seppi was in full control for one set and a half but then he entered in some self destruction mode. And today he beats easily the number 3 in the world and he is now 6 sets away from winning a grand slam. just amazing
  14. F**k Seppi just checked out after the second set. Good run for the outright on him but a bit dissapointed at the same time as he was set and break up in the second set and he was playing better than Edmund. Schwartzman played a good match today just rafa served so well on break points, now against cilic for a place in the last four. For the other round of 16 matches maybe no tiebreaks in Djokovic-Chung is the most attractive bet... but overall prices are right
  15. Impressive from Berdych, although I don't even consider him anymore to go deep in big tournaments he always manages to find a way to reach at least QF/SF in grand slams and it's been 8 years in a row doing so. He has one more match to play to reach QF but it's a winnable match for him so hats off. Thiem has every chance to reach the QF. I think it would be too much for Chung to beat Djokovic. Regarding today's matches, I had thought about no tiebreak in nadal-schwartzman however odds are low imo. I imagine PCB run will end today. Kyrgios-Dimitrov is the best match of the day. I was expec
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