Tennis Tips - September 30 - October 6

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Matteo Berrettini (-2.5) to beat Andy Murray at 2.00 with Pinnacle

Going against Murray once again. Granted, Berrettini shouldn't pose him the same fitness issues as De Minaur, but he's a better player overall and he's been crunching it for a while now. Motivation shouldn't be an issue at all and he shouldn't have too many nerves after facing both Monfils and Nadal with reasonable success in the US Open, so I think Murray is going to suffer another defeat here. He just doesn't seem to be in a competitive shape at the moment.

[Torque]

5 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Matteo Berrettini (-2.5) to beat Andy Murray at 2.00 with Pinnacle

Going against Murray once again. Granted, Berrettini shouldn't pose him the same fitness issues as De Minaur, but he's a better player overall and he's been crunching it for a while now. Motivation shouldn't be an issue at all and he shouldn't have too many nerves after facing both Monfils and Nadal with reasonable success in the US Open, so I think Murray is going to suffer another defeat here. He just doesn't seem to be in a competitive shape at the moment.

Completely agree. Opposing Murray could be a rewarding strategy in the months to come. He's a long way from being able to compete on a consistent basis at this level, but because of his name his price is nearly always going to be shorter than it should be.

[CzechPunter]

He's improving with each match though, so I'm not sure that I'd like to be opposing him blindly, but Berrettini isn't just your random player. On the up all year long and, well, he might even make it to the World Tour Finals with a little bit of luck!

[Torque]

Of course not opposing him blindly. Should have been clearer.

[Torque]

It'll always depend on the opponent and the situation i.e first round of a tourney or later

[Crespo]

Most of the time if odds seem too good to be true they are, but can anyone explain to me why Uchida is being offered at 1,2 and even higher against Iakovlev in the Nur-Sultan Challenger? On Betfair this is, but also at some bookies Uchida's odds are rising.  Iakovlev, didn't play for a year and before that he lost I don't know how many singles matches in a row, a lot of times with him only winning one or two games and sometimes against total nobodies. If I saw it right, his last win came in december 2016.

Now Uchida is no world beater, but he should absolutely have zero problems with Yakovlev. So maybe someone knows if Uchida has injury problems? The only other explanation for such odds to me would be fixing - and I've seen my share of fixes on Betfair - but I have never seen Uchida involved with this. So this is not a tip, because these odds make me very cautious, but I would like to know what other people think about it. 

Edited September 29, 2019 by Crespo

[kedbet]

on oddsportal 85% are on the russian. there must be some infos around, but i don't have any. skip and play andreescu at same odds 

Edited September 29, 2019 by kedbet

[Crespo]

Thanks for the input kedbet! Uchida won very very easily so it was a very weird odds movement after all. 

[CzechPunter]

One more for me tomorrow.

Diego Schwartzman (-2.5) to beat Fernando Verdasco at 1.80 with Bet365

Diego hasn't played since the US Open and that is of some concern, but Verdasco didn't look all that great last week and he has a terrible record against the Argentinian, who's better than ever now in many respects.

[fizrukas]

Gael Monfils (-2 games) to beat John Isner  || 2.05 @ OLYBET 

I was considering an over here, but the line is too high! Theese two met 11 times with 7-4 in favor of frenchmen!  Last 4 matches won by Gael. Isner didn't play that much after US open where he also ended L to Cilic in L32. I believe Gael in some advantage vs big american and the line is just -2 games!  GL ?

Edited September 30, 2019 by fizrukas

[fizrukas]

Diego Schwartzman (-2.5) to beat Fernando Verdasco 1.78 @ OLYBET!  

The argentinian is a clear fav here, Verdasco never was a great hard surface player,  and considering fact that Diego is in shape and had good US open tourney, he is on a dareto do smth!  H2H 3-0 to Diego!  All fact speaking itself,  and there should be no problem against bad hard player!  GL!

[fizrukas]

Novak Djokovic - Alexei Popyrin UNDER 20.5 @ 1.9 with OLYBET 

I just think that there should be no problem for Djoker,  just a way too good!  Alexei have lost to Verdasco most recently. They have not met before. -4.5 games also the bet to pick, but i will stick with that, for smth like 6:4 6:4 will be good. But i think they will finish earlier GL! 

[fizrukas]

Pablo Andujar - Gilles Simon || Over 21.5 @ 1.78 with OLYBET!  

Two very equal players, maybe Andujar has a little bit edge, Simon is not the same that he was several years ago! Pablo beat last 2 times pretty easily,  but i am just think that,Simon could play well when no one is expected!  Over can come also in just two sets!  GL!

[CzechPunter]

Obviously I'm looking at Thiem like an idiot and then don't tip him . Just let the season be over already and let me finish in a profit .

[four-leaf]

2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Obviously I'm looking at Thiem like an idiot and then don't tip him . Just let the season be over already and let me finish in a profit .

I'm not doing better myself since US open. I haven't posted a winning bet for a long time now.

[CzechPunter]

Alexander Zverev to beat FAA at 1.53 with Pinnacle

Zverev looked fine to me in the previous round and I think that he's actually got a really nice confidence boost due to the Laver Cup with him clinching the final match and what not. He's already crushed FAA in this season and I think that he's going to emerge on top yet again, although I wouldn't be shocked to see him drop a set due to his mentality at some point.

[kedbet]

combo pick @ 1.55 with asianodds

De Minaur - Harris / ATP Tokyo / De Minaur +1.5 Sets @ 1.11 / 3-6, 7-6, 0-0
Brady - Keys / WTA Beijing / Keys +1.5 Sets @ 1.16 / 2-6, 0-0
Djokovic - Soeda / ATP Tokyo / Djokovic @ 1.05 / 6-3, 7-5
Barty - Zheng / WTA Beijing / Barty +1.5 Sets @ 1.08 / 6-3, 0-0
Thiem - Zhang / ATP Beijing / Thiem +1.5 Sets @ 1.06 / 6-3, 0-0

not popular in this forum, so let's make it popular. if you don't like it, just ignore my postings  

de minaur is a few levels above the south african. played very good tennis in zhuhai, likes the asian swing. normally i skip keys, but she is very solid the past weeks. brady is not good enough to beat an opponent like this in straight sets imo. djokovic banker, soeda nowhere near. barty h2h 4-0 and too clever for the sneaky way of tennis played by saisai. thiems backhand was clicking vs gasquet and i expect her to do so against the local hero zhang.

Edited October 2, 2019 by kedbet

[kedbet]

combo pick @ 1.66 with bet365

Taberner - Giustino / ATP Barcelona / Taberner +1.5 Sets @ 1.14 / 6-4, 0-0
Wozniacki - Siniakova / WTA Beijing / Wozniacki +1.5 Sets @ 1.18 / 7-5, 0-0
Aoyama/Shibahara - Babos/Mladenovic / WTA Beijing / B&M +1.5 Sets @ 1.083 / 6-3, 6-4
Andreescu - Brady / WTA Beijing / Andreescu +1.5 Sets @ 1.14 / 6-1, 0-0

taberner 19-1 athc (against the handicap) lately, plays at home soil. giustino on the other side 3-17 athc. wozniacki seems to have found some kind of rhythm in beijing, where she is the defending champion. she beat siniakova all three times they met on hard courts in straight sets. i don't overrate the czechs win over ostapenko, we all know why. babos/mladenovic always the couple to beat. they played 28 matches this year, won 22 and lost only twice in straight sets. aoyama/shibahara won't be able to be the third combo to do so. andreescu with an hilarious run, she didn't lose in straight sets all year.

Edited October 3, 2019 by kedbet

[CzechPunter]

Dominic Thiem (-2.5) to beat Andy Murray at 1.81 with Pinnacle

Should be the end of Murray honestly, Thiem is a giant step up from Norrie and Murray shouldn't have the fitness to fight against one of the fittest players on the tour. Could be somewhat similar to the match with De Minaur from last week in many ways, but Thiem is obviously even better and (hopefully) isn't going to choke like Berretini did.

[Hermes]

5 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Dominic Thiem (-2.5) to beat Andy Murray at 1.81 with Pinnacle

Should be the end of Murray honestly, Thiem is a giant step up from Norrie and Murray shouldn't have the fitness to fight against one of the fittest players on the tour. Could be somewhat similar to the match with De Minaur from last week in many ways, but Thiem is obviously even better and (hopefully) isn't going to choke like Berretini did.

Most solid bet of the week imho so far.

[Finchez]

Jaziri is not serious at all

[Finchez]

Cilic M. has really messed me up today. 

[CzechPunter]

Hi and welcome to the forum @Finchez! Looking forward to some more valuable contributions though .

[Bettingboots]

I do expect Murray to lose to Thiem, but the problem with Thiem is he can lose to anybody on a hard court.

So for that reason, its a watching brief only for me. 

[vvararu]

Beijing WTA

Andreescu - Osaka

Osaka to win @2.3 Unibet or Osaka +1.5 set @1.49 Unibet.

I think that Osaka is the perfect candidate to disappoint Andreescu. She has the power in serve and the power in return. Andreescu bases her game mostly on power and that works great against the players with weak serve/shot. Well, Osaka has beef on her as well and is fully capable of beating canadian, against of what odds say.

[four-leaf]

On 10/3/2019 at 12:10 AM, CzechPunter said:

Dominic Thiem (-2.5) to beat Andy Murray at 1.81 with Pinnacle

Should be the end of Murray honestly, Thiem is a giant step up from Norrie and Murray shouldn't have the fitness to fight against one of the fittest players on the tour. Could be somewhat similar to the match with De Minaur from last week in many ways, but Thiem is obviously even better and (hopefully) isn't going to choke like Berretini did.

I'm on this one also! I decided to make a move this morning. Dominic could drop a set but I don't see him losing this match or failing to win by 3 games.

[CzechPunter]

Wow, Thiem making three double faults when serving for the match. WTF? 

[CzechPunter]

Dodig/Polasek to beat Murray/Skupski at 1.85 with Pinnacle

It's obviously rather hard to separate these two really good pairings, but I have to side with Dodig and Polasek due to the 2-0 record they hold over their opponents, with both of those matches coming in this season. Based on that, I think that there's some value in the odds here, although the margins are rather fine obviously.

[four-leaf]

Karen Khachanov to beat Dominic Thiem at 2.38 with Unibet

I think Karen Khachanov might be worth thinking about tomorrow because I don't think Dominic Thiem has been all to impressive on the chinese hardcourts. He's had an easy road to the semis and Karen is a step up in level of play.