keef75 Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 After feeling bad about hijacking someone else's thread in this part of the forum I thought it would be best to start afresh. I have something that I have been following for a while - a horse racing selection system. I know, if you've seen one you've seen them all blah blah blah. Well, prepare to be amazed haha! So far there have been 265 selections between January 2017 and today, mainly around the weekends and big festivals etc.. Here are some stats: Strike rate: 46% Longest losing run: 9 Longest winning run: 6 Average WIN SP: 2.76 (Betfair: 2.88) Point profit to level stakes: +71.76 (Betfair: +86.00) I'm not going to say too much about the selection process - there are 8 base rules - but I will post the selections here. The only rule you need to know is that the selection MUST START CLEAR FAVOURITE so having access to Betfair or whatever is essential to be able to watch the prices just before the off. There will be cases where it's too close to call - in these situations I scrap the selection. As for staking plans, this is where the aforementioned hijacked thread comes into play. I am currently looking at some quite aggressive plans. I have the following figures for the first 264 selections (all from a starting bank of £1000): Level stakes (£10) 26.84% ROI - Current Profit £708 (Normal SP) - Total Staked £2640 32.23% ROI - Current Profit £850 (Betfair SP) - Total Staked £2640 Multiplier on loss (x1.2 previous stake) 25.21% ROI - Current Profit £858 - Total Staked £3405 Percentage bank (1% of bank always) 25.79% ROI - Current Profit £969 - Total Staked £3758 Square root (base stake of £10 plus the square root of the current bank minus start bank) 23.79% ROI - Current Profit £3052 - Total Staked £12831 1-3-2-6 Staking (based on a 1% stake) 27.36% ROI - Current Profit £2803 - Total Staked £10246 Ratchet (1% of current bank increasing over time but never reducing) 26.02% ROI - Current Profit £1017 - Total Staked £3909 Ratchet square root (combination of two above methods) 24.88% ROI - Current Profit £4028 (Normal SP) - Total Staked £16193 27.39% ROI - Current Profit £4873 (Betfair SP) - Total Staked £17794 Incidentally, selection 265 also won but I can't be bothered updating all those figures! The plans I will be following on here are:Level stakes (for control purposes) Square root 1-3-2-6 Ratchet square root I'll be posting the selections below as I find them and also running totals. I'll keep the above totals going but I'll also start from £1000 again for the purposes of this thread so we can all follow it together. Sometimes there will be conditions for the bet such as 'only qualifies if there are at least 5 runners' or 'only qualifies if xxx is a NR' etc. Finally I've attached a graph showing how some of the plans have performed. Hopefully things will continue in a similar manner. Last thing to say... I'm posting these selections for information only and I can't take any responsibility for losses that might occur from errors or otherwise. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance for any system! Let's go! footysystems, Xtc12 and harry_rag 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keef75 Posted September 11, 2019 Author Share Posted September 11, 2019 Thursday, 12th September 2019 6:50 Chelmsford City - IBRAZ or SOLAR HEIGHTS Neither is currently clear favourite so we'll keep an eye on this. If neither starts clear favourite this is a no-bet. Zico10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
footysystems Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 @keef75 Excellent post will follow with interest ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, footysystems said: @keef75 Excellent post will follow with interest ? Yeah, good luck. Will be keeping an eye, albeit as an occasional horse punter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liero1 Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 Very good, let's go! It's not a big amount of bets so the results can easily be simply luck, but who knows!! Also depending on the criteria you could automate this for betfair.. cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zemside Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 (edited) Yep lets ride this pony.? 265 picks over what time period? Just to get an idea of the volume. Edited September 11, 2019 by Zemside Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keef75 Posted September 11, 2019 Author Share Posted September 11, 2019 @Zemside between 25 January 2017 and 6 September 2019, so quite a while. Progress will be slow but, hopefully, steady and sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keef75 Posted September 11, 2019 Author Share Posted September 11, 2019 Friday, 13th September 2019 2:10 Doncaster - FARZEEN Currently 7/2 fav. 4:20 Doncaster - MOLATHAM Currently 9/4 2nd fav to the 2/1 fav (Visinari) - don't forget it has to start CLEAR FAVOURITE to be included. Also 5 runners is the lower limit for a selection. There are 5 runners in this race so if there are any non-runners this will not be a selection. For info I use the Sporting Life website to get the selections so I use their odds when selecting (The price doesn't have any bearing on the selections although I did run a filter on price and found a very small improvement to some staking plans when capping the SP but others didn't perform as well). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 On 9/11/2019 at 9:37 AM, keef75 said: After feeling bad about hijacking someone else's thread in this part of the forum I thought it would be best to start afresh. Don't worry about it @keef75 hope it goes well for you will be looking in for the excellent results.? keef75 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keef75 Posted September 12, 2019 Author Share Posted September 12, 2019 It's very tight at the top of the 6:50 at Chelmsford City with IBRAZ currently just clear favourite on Betfair (5.3) but the next three (all at 6.0) are all within touching distance. It's not the best race to start with as it could go any way but it's a pick and if it meets the criteria then I'm going with it (although, for the sake of transparency, I'm still not using real money yet). Again, if there's no clear favourite it'll be a no-bet anyway. Staking: Level stakes: £10 Square root: £10 1-3-2-6: £10 Ratchet square root: £10 As this is the first race all four plans are at the base level of £10. Stakes will change for some plans on the next bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keef75 Posted September 12, 2019 Author Share Posted September 12, 2019 I'm officially calling the 6:50 Chelmsford City off - it's too risky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keef75 Posted September 12, 2019 Author Share Posted September 12, 2019 We ended up with joint favourites in the 6:50 Chelmsford City anyway so it was a no bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keef75 Posted September 13, 2019 Author Share Posted September 13, 2019 Saturday, 14th September 2019 1:55 Leopardstown - RAVEN'S CRY or BLISSFUL Currently 5/2 fav and 7/2 respectively. Only if no non-runners. 2:25 Doncaster - SHINE SO BRIGHT Currently 11/8 fav. 2:45 Chelmsford City - WAR GLORY Currently 5/1 2nd fav (fav is 9/2). Only if starts as favourite. 3:00 Doncaster - THREAT Currently EVS fav. Only if no non-runners. 3:05 Leopardstown - MOGUL Currently 4/11 fav. 3:40 Leopardstown - BUCKHURST Currently 9/4 2nd fav (fav is 15/8). Only if starts as favourite. 4:10 Doncaster - INCINERATOR Currently 15/8 fav. Only if no non-runners. 4:15 Leopardstown - HEADMAN or MADHMOON Currently 7/2 joint 2nd fav and 6/1 respectively (fav is 15/8). Only if starts as favourite. 4:50 Leopardstown - LANCASTER HOUSE Currently 15/8 fav. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keef75 Posted September 13, 2019 Author Share Posted September 13, 2019 I'm going to struggle to keep up with all these tomorrow so here's a little more information about the staking plans. Base stake is always £10 and the base percentage is always 1%. Level Stakes This is the easiest one. Simply £10 per bet. Square Root This is the base percentage of the current bank (1%) plus the square root of the difference between the current bank and the start bank (£1000) but only when the current bank is in profit. For example if the current bank is £960 then the stake is £9.60 (1% of the current bank). If the current bank is £1250 the stake is £12.50 + £15.81 (SQRT of 250) = £28.31. Stakes will increase and decrease as the bank goes up and down. 1-3-2-6 Again, using the base percentage of the current bank (1%) but a negative balance doesn't affect the progression through the multipliers. The first stake is 1% of the current bank. If the first selection loses we remain on 1%. After the first winning bet the stake becomes 3% of the current bank. If this second selection loses we revert back to 1%. If the second selection wins we then put 2% of the current bank on the third selection. If the third selection loses we revert back to 1% but if it wins we reach our final step, 6% of the current bank. If the fourth selection wins or loses we revert back to 1%. This plan is aggressive and can only really be profitable where there are several winning runs of 4+ bets. Ratchet Square Root This is almost exactly the same as the Square Root plan above but with the exception that the stake does not decrease with the current balance (hence the 'ratchet'). For example, the first bet is 1% of the start bank (£10 from a bank of £1000). If this wins at 4/1 the bank now stands at £1040. The stake for the next selection will be £10.40 (1%) + £6.32 (SQRT 40) = £16.72. If this loses the bank is down to £1023.28 but the stake remains at £16.72. Xtc12 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zemside Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 Busy day tomorrow...Farzeen odds went out ,no good for today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keef75 Posted September 13, 2019 Author Share Posted September 13, 2019 RESULTS - Friday, 13th September 2019 2:10 Doncaster - FARZEEN Drifted before the off and did not start favourite. NO BET. 4:20 Doncaster - MOLATHAM Backed in to EVS and started as favourite. BET and WINNER. Xtc12 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keef75 Posted September 13, 2019 Author Share Posted September 13, 2019 STAKES - Saturday, 14th September 2019 The first bet of the day will be: Level Stakes: £10.00Square Root: £13.261-3-2-6: £30.30Ratchet Sq Root: £13.26 It's going to be too hard to keep up with the individual stakes for the races tomorrow as there are so many possibilities. I'll give a summary after each day's racing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keef75 Posted September 13, 2019 Author Share Posted September 13, 2019 (edited) STANDINGS - Friday, 13th September 2019 Bets: 1 Wins: 1 Losses: 0 Strike Rate: 100% BANKS Level Stakes: £1010Square Root: £10101-3-2-6: £1010Ratchet Sq Root: £1010 Edited September 13, 2019 by keef75 Removed a word Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 @keef75 is Saturday always this busy ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keef75 Posted September 13, 2019 Author Share Posted September 13, 2019 @Xtc12 some of them won't make it as selections but we just happen to have two big meetings tomorrow so it is a little out of the ordinary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keef75 Posted September 14, 2019 Author Share Posted September 14, 2019 It's going well today lol! Two losers out of two, both finishing last but one! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keef75 Posted September 14, 2019 Author Share Posted September 14, 2019 RESULTS - Saturday, 14th September 2019 1:55 Leopardstown - RAVEN'S CRY or BLISSFUL Raven's Cry started 3/1 favourite but failed to deliver finishing 8th of 9. BET and LOSER. 2:25 Doncaster - SHINE SO BRIGHT Started 10/11 clear favourite but, again, a poor run finishing 4th of 5. BET and LOSER. 2:45 Chelmsford City - WAR GLORY Not close to starting favourite. NO-BET. 3:00 Doncaster - THREAT Started 6/5 favourite, not a convincing win but we'll take that. BET and WINNER. 3:05 Leopardstown - MOGUL Started 1/2 favourite. BET and WINNER. 3:40 Leopardstown - BUCKHURST Started joint favourite, it was clear this wasn't going to be a selection on the run up to the start. NO-BET. 4:10 Doncaster - INCINERATOR Didn't start favourite. NO-BET. 4:15 Leopardstown - HEADMAN or MADHMOON Neither started as favourite. NO-BET. 4:50 Leopardstown - LANCASTER HOUSE Disappointing run in this step-up. BET and LOSER. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keef75 Posted September 14, 2019 Author Share Posted September 14, 2019 STANDINGS - Saturday, 14th September 2019 Bets: 6 Wins: 3 Losses: 3 Strike Rate: 50% BANKS Level Stakes: £997.00Square Root: £991.671-3-2-6: £976.34Ratchet Sq Root: £992.76 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keef75 Posted September 14, 2019 Author Share Posted September 14, 2019 POSSIBLE SELECTIONS - Sunday, 15th September 2019 1:55 Curragh - GODDESS or LADY WANNABE or LOVEISTHEHIGHERLAW or WAITINGFORTHEDAY Currently 4/1 2nd fav (fav is 9/4), 9/1, 14/1 and 16/1 respectively. Possibility for Goddess but she's going to need a lot of support. 3:35 Curragh - PINATUBO or ARMORY Currently 9/4 fav and 10/3 respectively. Pinatubo was a winning selection at Goodwood in July. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zemside Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 That Blissfull paid nice today...albeit 2nd choice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keef75 Posted September 15, 2019 Author Share Posted September 15, 2019 @Zemside very nice priced winner. Goddess is now favourite for the 1:55 Curragh so is a definite possibility. Pinatubo is strong favourite and is almost certainly going to be a bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keef75 Posted September 15, 2019 Author Share Posted September 15, 2019 RESULTS - Sunday, 15th September 2019 1:55 Curragh - GODDESS Started 15/8 fav but failed to beat the competition, Tarnawa. BET and LOSER. 3:35 Curragh - PINATUBO Easy fifth win on the bounce for Pinatubo at 1/3 fav. BET and WINNER. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keef75 Posted September 15, 2019 Author Share Posted September 15, 2019 STANDINGS - Sunday, 15th September 2019 Bets: 8 Wins: 4 Losses: 4 Strike Rate: 50% BANKS Level Stakes: £990.33Square Root: £985.031-3-2-6: £969.80Ratchet Sq Root: £983.92 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keef75 Posted September 15, 2019 Author Share Posted September 15, 2019 There are no selections between now and next Friday. Once Saturday's declarations are up I'll have a look and post the possible selections, if any. It's been a disappointing start, despite the 50% strike rate, but not to worry I'm sure things will pick up over time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keef75 Posted September 17, 2019 Author Share Posted September 17, 2019 POSSIBLE SELECTIONS - Saturday, 21st September 2019 2:20 Newbury - DESERT ENCOUNTER or WALDSTERN or LAST LOOK No prices up yet, I'll update later in the week. This is the only selection for the weekend, a bit different to last weekend! thecurlyone1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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