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StevieDay1983

Serie A & B Predictions > Oct 19th - 21st

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This looks like quite a difficult card comming off the back of the international break which does not help matters.

Important to consider that the sword of damocles looms over Di Francesco (Sampdoria), Giampaolo (AC Milan), Andreazzoli (Genoa) and possibly Tudor (Udinese). There may have been one or two managerial changes by the time this league restarts on the 19th, which again can muddy the waters even more.

Both Brescia and Sassuolo will have had a 3 week gap between Serie A fixtures as their match was postponed on Friday. Brescia at least will play a club friendly this weekend.

I have my shortlist drawn up, will track price movements and team news but no early bets so far. The Italian landscape remains foggy for now.

 

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Parma V Genoa

Parma +0 AH @ 1.769 Matchbook

It seems that Genoa are going to keep faith with Aurelio Andreazzoli, for now at least, and so I don't anticipate a radical change in playing style for Genoa here. Under Andreazzoli the team has been exceedingly bad at defending counter-attacks and coping with skillful opposition forwards. They currently have the joint 2nd worst defence in the division with 15 goals conceeded from 7 games thus far. To compound matters further, Genoa will miss their two strongest defenders for this match with Domenico Criscito and Cristian Romero injured and suspended respectively.

What are Parma's main strengths? Counter-attacks and through ball attacks. The front 3 of Inglese, Gervinho and Kulusevski are perfect for this kind of football and I think they have the capability to exploit Genoa's weaknesses here. We can also see that the ELO ratings are moving favourably in Parma's direction which is encouraging.

Parma will have to be wary of Genoa's threat from set-pieces in this match as the Gialloblu are not so good at defending them. That aside, I like the quality and characteristics of this Parma team verses a Genoa with various tactical and personnel issues.

I will go for the conservative approach and take full draw cover here rather than the -0.25 line. Parma themselves are quite a conservative team under Roberto D'Aversa and although this current Genoa outfit seem to be the perfect opposition for them, we still have to be mindful of Parma's underwhelming home record last season.

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Serie A

Atalanta have won with at least a 2 goal margin in their last 3 matches in Serie A.
Juventus are undefeated in their last 24 home matches in Serie A.
Atalanta have won 86% of their last 7 away matches in Serie A.
Atalanta are undefeated in 95% of their last 20 matches in Serie A.

You can find interesting 48 Football Betting Streaks for 19.10.2019 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-19-10-2019-2-16141

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On 10/12/2019 at 4:16 PM, Mindfulness said:

Claudio Ranieri is the new coach of Sampdoria.

They're screwed then! I say that, his record in Italy isn't too bad with a 49.36% win ratio at five clubs since 2007. Not going to include his three first jobs in the mid to late 90s. A manager that certainly divides opinion.

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Cagliari vs SPAL

Yes, guess who's back? Serie A's back! In true Italian sports betting fashion I'm going to build on @Mindfulness great preview above and take the anticlimactic stance by covering Cagliari versus SPAL which is scheduled to kick-off at 2pm BST on Sunday at the Sardegna Arena. The home side are chasing down the leading pack but will potential relegation candidates halt their cause?

Cagliari are really proving to be a surprise package this season. Rolando Maran is doing a cracking job with his club positioned in 7th place and just 2 points off the pace of the Champions League qualification spots after 7 league games. Granted, it's early days but an unbeaten run of 5 league games is showing that the team has what it takes to give European qualification a real crack this season. Taking points off the likes of Napoli and Roma has shown they can mix it with the big guns.

SPAL served us well last season. The little team that could are struggling to get away from the danger zone this season. Manager Leonardo Semplici has overseen his side win 2 and lose 5 of their 7 league games up until now. It's left the club in 17th place and only outside the drop zone on goal difference. The 1-0 win at home against Parma in their most recent league game provided a slight remedy to the poor start of 5 losses from their first 6 league matches. However, the failure to take a single point on the road so far is a concern.

The fact this is a SPAL team that haven't even scored an away goal this season shows exactly why Cagliari are fantastic value. Especially because this Cagliari team are looking like a team that can push the top teams. The only catch is that Cagliari have only won 1 of their 4 home games in the league. I believe they'll double that win record here with a narrow win.

Cagliari to Win @ 2.17 with Marathonbet

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.76 with Unibet

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3 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

They're screwed then! I say that, his record in Italy isn't too bad with a 49.36% win ratio at five clubs since 2007. Not going to include his three first jobs in the mid to late 90s. A manager that certainly divides opinion.

I think he is an ok appointment for them. He will probably be pragmatic rather than a mad tinkerer. The current reports suggest he will revert to a back 4 which will help the Sampdoria defenders out a lot as they just weren't confident in a back 3 with wing-backs under Di Francesco. The team was also devoid of creativity with previous lineups and so I expect Gaston Ramirez to return to the first eleven as an advanced playmaker.

The signing of Andrea Bertolacci on a free transfer will prove shrewd and good value if the midfielder can stay fit.

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3 minutes ago, sajtion said:

dzeko is out for ac roma which makes sampdoria appealing bet. i think they will win

Trouble is Nikola Kalinic will now start for Roma and he is adept at playing off the shoulder and hurting teams who cannot defend counter-attacks, like Sampdoria under Di Francesco. Obviously Ranieri taking charge should improve Sampdoria's defence but I cannot speculate that their problem with defending through balls and counter-attacks will disappear overnight.

If you do back Sampdoria then I wish you luck but I cannot get involved in this match from a betting perspective. Trying to price the game is scary and weird so I will hide behind the sofa instead.

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Lazio vs Atalanta Bergamo

Lazio

Doubtful: Berisha (1/0 m)

Out (injuries/other): -

Suspended: Lucas Leiva (6/0 m)

Atalanta Bergamo

Doubtful: -

Out (injuries/other): Zapata (7/6 f, top scorer)

Suspended: -

 

SSC Napoli vs Hellas Verona

SSC Napoli

Doubtful: -

Out (injuries/other): Maksimović (4/0 d), Hysaj (3/0 d), Lozano (5/1 f)

Suspended: -

Hellas Verona

Doubtful: -

Out (injuries/other): Pazzini (2/0 f), Badu (0/0 m), Bessa (0/0 m)

Suspended: -

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Serie A

There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 80% of Inter’s last 10 away games in Serie A.
Sampdoria have lost 86% of their last 7 matches in Serie A.
Inter have won their last 3 away matches in Serie A.
Genoa have failed to win their last 12 away matches in Serie A.

You can find interesting 47 Football Betting Streaks for 20.10.2019 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-20-10-2019-16161

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Parma has to win this fight. It has momentum at home, winning the last two fights in Tardini. In addition, Genoa is in bad shape and in a very disadvantaged position. Coach Andracoli has three main suspension players unavailable. Parma must take advantage of the situation and get the win in every possible way
PARMA CALCIO 1913 S.R.L. vs GENOA CFC @@ PARMA CALCIO, odds 2.55

Many games like every Sunday in Serie A and ahead of Sassuolo-Inter early. The Nerazzurri are looking for a 2-1 defeat to Juventus in the derby and this year they have the seriousness to beat rivals like today's
US SASSUOLO CALCIO vs INTER MILANO @@ INTER MILANO, odds 1.70

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Serie A

Fiorentina have won their last 3 matches in Serie A.
There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 80% of Fiorentina’s last 10 away games in Serie A.

You can find interesting 22 Football Betting Streaks for 21.10.2019 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-21-10-2019-16163

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