Torque

There really aren't any actual bookies left are there. A bookmaker is supposed to run a book, taking bets on all sides of a contest and finessing the odds so as to make a profit no matter the outcome. On that basis, no bookie should impose limits - at least not until the stakes get particularly strong. Bookies these days should be done under trade descriptions as they're nothing of the sort.

I think it’s easier to try and calculate fair odds for binary events (over/under, player to score or not) than horse races or anything with a big field. The ratings angle seems more appropriate for them. You also need less data to be confident about the validity when there’s just two possible outcomes at relatively short odds.

I guess you're seeing things very much through the prism of a mainstream racing punter. It's not so easy if you bet on other sports, especially if you stray away from the obvious main markets. Sometimes the prices are better with the bookies, sometimes there's no liquidity on the exchange, sometimes there's no markets.

I'm putting a few mug bets and blackjack bets on which hopefully might help me
I won £100 a couple of days ago but lost £50 on blackjack (hope I'm not in a slippery slope !)

I suppose a system is something where "computer says yes/no" and you bet regardless of how good or bad the bet strikes you. A "method" might be where you consider the system rating alongside other variables and make an informed choice. The use of speed ratings seems to fall more into the latter category. Compare the output to the prices on offer and make an informed choice on how many selections to back and how to combine them. 
From a goalscorer perspective I have a simple system that only involves two variables. 3 x 25 =  75 = bet, no other considerations involved (where 3 is the fixed odds price). 3 x 24 = 72 = a possible bet if I have time to look at the players stats. The former is very much a pure system bet whereas I record the latter as a "studied" bet which you could definitely say uses a consistent method. The studied bets have the better ROI this year though it was the other way round last year.
I've had many systems or methods that have worked well for a while over the years but fallen away over time. That will be for a variety of reasons; sometimes there was no real edge as the approach was based on too small a data sample, sometimes the bookies or other punters cotton on and the prices adjust, sometimes the market gets dropped because the firm was taking a hammering. Sometimes the value is still there like low hanging fruit but the b*****d farmer bans you from the orchard! 

as unprofessional as ever, eh? what makes me laugh is that Ronnie pretends like he's a fighter but he couldn't be any less of a fighter. He is so good that he rarely needs to fight and when he has to, he just does that and gives up.

This is like the final against Williams the other week now. Ronnie going for everything - head has gone. Can't see past Bingham now.

Trump was poor but the safety play from Jones was top tier. I still think Ronnie pulls away. Could be a very interesting couple of semi-finals. I've not ruled out Higgins making a comeback either

Over the line easily in the end. Must admit I didn't see that one coming.

Early days yet but Ronnie's long game doesn't look like it's where it needs to be - apart from a great opening red in the first frame. It was the same against Day, or at least it was in the latter part of the match and you just wonder if that could cost him in the end. Bingham won't be intimidated, he's beaten Ronnie here before at this same stage and you could make the argument that if he could beat Lisowski without scoring he can certainly beat O'Sullivan if the scoring that he's renowned for returns.

might not seem a great price for -4.5 but I just can't see Bingham getting close. He didn't even play well against Jack and just defended with solid defensive snooker. Jack hit 10 50+ breaks and a century whilst Bingham hit 3 50+ breaks.
Ronnie also dominates the h2h. 6-2 / 9-3 / 6-2 last three meaningful matches. Bingham hasn't beaten Ronnie in a serious match since his title win in 2015.
obviously I could get it completely wrong but I just can't see Bingham even getting to 6 frames. (famous last words)
6pts Ronnie -4.5 to beat Bingham 4/6 bet365
 

yeah but lucky for him he has Bingham today. Should beat him easy. Would love to see Gilbert win it now.

He said as much himself. That's my interest in the outrights over in any case - I'd backed Allen without putting it up here as well as Page. It looks like it's O'Sullivan's to lose now but I'm not so sure. I didn't think he was that great against Day and he looked vulnerable to me.

Do you have any idea whether you’d be up or down from backing singles? For me that’s the difference between this being a bit of fun with a genuine expectation of a long term profit or it only being profitable if you get lucky. I must admit that I’m sceptical of the correct score market being one that’s readily beatable.
It’s also relevant to the singles/patent consideration. If you’re losing money on them then don’t waste stake on them, just stick to the approach of hoping for a big win. And if you do think singles are worthwhile then take the effort to get the best possible price on them rather than settle for whatever a single firm is offering. I’d say you’d do better by just backing them all on the exchange. It’s a bit of extra effort but that’s usually the key to turning a small loss into a modest profit.

Bolton v Port Vale (1) 1.44
PSG v Lyon (1) 1.44
Girona v Cadiz (1) 1.40
10pt treble

Agree. Maguire is flaky as anything and is liable to have a sulk at some point if things aren't going his way.

No. Complete bottle job. He's missed almost everything he's played and he's had chances in every frame. And 4-0 down. If it's not a bottle job then I don't know what is. It makes me wonder what's gone through his head - beaten before the first break-off. Surely what you do is remind yourself of some of Ronnie's poor first matches down the years and then that gives you the confidence to believe you can give him a match. The first thing I'd have done is shown Page the O'Sullivan - Cahill match where Cahill won and then from there the mindset should have been if Cahill can do then so can I.

Finally he's on the board and the break of 142 and the way he compiled it just confirms he was bottling it before. If he'd played like that from the start then we'd have a match. As it is it's game over. O'Sullivan isn't losing from 6-1 up.

No. Complete bottle job. He's missed almost everything he's played and he's had chances in every frame. And 4-0 down. If it's not a bottle job then I don't know what is. It makes me wonder what's gone through his head - beaten before the first break-off. Surely what you do is remind yourself of some of Ronnie's poor first matches down the years and then that gives you the confidence to believe you can give him a match. The first thing I'd have done is shown Page the O'Sullivan - Cahill match where Cahill won and then from there the mindset should have been if Cahill can do then so can I.

Only just seen this. Well done to your dad on picking Horschel he had a beauty of a last round 👏

I'm happy enough to back Scheffler to win again from here. 1.87 on the exchanges seems fair enough and I'm also backing Straka as a saver, although I'll still lose some if Scheffler doesn't win. In the Corales tourney I'm backing Tway at 5.61 who's a shot off the lead - it's a wide open leader board but Tway looks a reasonable price to me.

Agree about Stephens - I backed her for the tournament a couple of rounds back and she looks dialled-in which is a rare sight. Although saying that, she's currently playing a sloppy 2nd set against Linette after flaming through the 1st and the match is set to go the distance. Who knows what happens then but it's fair to say Linette is the more consistent and reliable player so my hopes won't be high.
Munich is done and Struff got the win. Typical Struff really - every now and then he goes on a tear-up and this week was one of those weeks. As you said, home conditions helped him and what also helped is he's more comfortable on clay than Fritz is - although the American is definitely improving on the surface.
Bucharest final has started and I'd have backed Navone as the younger, hungrier player - which would have been a mistake as he's just lost in straights. Maybe it's like you said and Navone ran out of gas.
Stuttgart is also done and Rybakina was an easy winner. I'd have backed her which would have been an easy decision to make after she outlasted Swiatek. As much as Rybakina's levels can fluctuate, having just beaten the best clay player in the world and beaten her pretty well and with this being a final it was hard to see her not playing well and that proved to be the case. As an aside, I didn't like the look of Swiatek at all this week but she'll still be a big favourite for RG and so there could be some good prices elsewhere. Increasingly it looks to me that she struggles when put under pressure, which seems to be happening more than it used to - as though the other players have figured out how to play her. When you steamroll through match after match you lack the practice of dealing with tight matches and that's also a factor in Swiatek looking panicky when it's not a procession for her.
Barcelona final has just started and Tsitsipas has an early break. I'm on him to win the tournament but it's far too early to say that's a done deal. I'll be surprised if there isn't more than two sets and I think there'll be plenty of fluctuations as nerves play a part. Tsitsipas is 0-10 in finals like these and Ruud has never won a tournament at this level.

Sometimes it's just not your day. And when you hear Brecel saying he was ill and then that he didn't like the attention that came with being World Champion and then comments about being glad he's lost so the spotlight is off him, you know it was never going to be your day. It was interesting when he spoke about being ill where he said he probably would have pulled out at another tournament, but because this is such a big tournament he felt he had to play. Apparently though it's not big enough to try to overturn one snooker in a deciding frame.

Excellent analysis guys! Swiatek is definitely overhyped against players that can hit big - not many out there, and she tends to have an incredibly easy time against the rest, but it's always worth considering going against her in those specific cases.

Agree about Stephens - I backed her for the tournament a couple of rounds back and she looks dialled-in which is a rare sight. Although saying that, she's currently playing a sloppy 2nd set against Linette after flaming through the 1st and the match is set to go the distance. Who knows what happens then but it's fair to say Linette is the more consistent and reliable player so my hopes won't be high.
Munich is done and Struff got the win. Typical Struff really - every now and then he goes on a tear-up and this week was one of those weeks. As you said, home conditions helped him and what also helped is he's more comfortable on clay than Fritz is - although the American is definitely improving on the surface.
Bucharest final has started and I'd have backed Navone as the younger, hungrier player - which would have been a mistake as he's just lost in straights. Maybe it's like you said and Navone ran out of gas.
Stuttgart is also done and Rybakina was an easy winner. I'd have backed her which would have been an easy decision to make after she outlasted Swiatek. As much as Rybakina's levels can fluctuate, having just beaten the best clay player in the world and beaten her pretty well and with this being a final it was hard to see her not playing well and that proved to be the case. As an aside, I didn't like the look of Swiatek at all this week but she'll still be a big favourite for RG and so there could be some good prices elsewhere. Increasingly it looks to me that she struggles when put under pressure, which seems to be happening more than it used to - as though the other players have figured out how to play her. When you steamroll through match after match you lack the practice of dealing with tight matches and that's also a factor in Swiatek looking panicky when it's not a procession for her.
Barcelona final has just started and Tsitsipas has an early break. I'm on him to win the tournament but it's far too early to say that's a done deal. I'll be surprised if there isn't more than two sets and I think there'll be plenty of fluctuations as nerves play a part. Tsitsipas is 0-10 in finals like these and Ruud has never won a tournament at this level.