Darran Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 A poor day on Saturday, but days like that will happen so we move on to the midweek action and I have 2 bets I like the look of. Aldershot v Dover It really annoys me that the only time I have backed Dover when they have played away from home was the only time they haven't won on their travels this season. That game ended in defeat to Boreham Wood, but apart from that they have been exceptional on the road this season and I fancy them to win here against a poor Aldershot side. Aldershot have only managed to beat Wrexham at home so far this season and obviously given where they are in the table it doesn't say a great deal. They played out a dire 0-0 on Saturday against Chorley and you would expect Dover to have too much for them. Dover played their part in a good game on Saturday where they were denied the 3 points late on by Notts County in a 2-2 draw. For me Dover should be odds on for this and I can't see the 13/10 lasting. Stockport v Hartlepool This game is the live BT Sport game on Wednesday night and I think Hartlepool are a big price to back up their win against Yeovil on Saturday. They played really well and to get a winner in injury time a couple of minutes after Yeovil had equalised showed a real strength in character. That was their first win in 6, but they are unbeaten in 3 now and they have decent away form only losing to Halifax and Dagenham so far on their travels. I still think they look a side capable of being in the promotion mix and to be fair despite the fact they are 15th they are only 4 points from the play-off places. Stockport are in desperate form at the moment and lost 5 on the bounce before getting a 0-0 draw at Sutton on Saturday. There were some shocking performances in those defeats as well and they were conceding goals for fun. Manager Jim Gannon saw some improvement on Saturday, but it wasn't a great game and I think Hartlepool can punish them. I'm surprised that Hartlepool are as big as 5/2 because I think they are the better team and would have them no bigger than 7/4. Dover 4pts @ 13/10 with BetVictor Hartlepool 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365 Mindfulness, mcfoley, monty63 and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theadder Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 On 13/10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted October 7, 2019 Author Share Posted October 7, 2019 Gloucester v Whitby Part of me doesn't want to get involved in this game as obviously I already have a lot riding on it from an emotional point of view as I am always desperate for us to progress in the FA Cup, but take my heart out of it the game looks to be potentially one that money can be made from and ultimately I would be getting involved if I wasn't a Gloucester fan. Whitby should have won the first tie on Saturday and Gloucester equalised very late in the game to take the match to a replay. Not surprisingly the Whitby players looked gutted after the goal goes in and that for me was the moment their hopes in the FA Cup ended. Just 48 hours later they have to travel over 200 miles to Evesham to take in the replay. That is tough for plenty of reasons but the main one being they could well struggle to raise a team tonight. They were already suffering from injuries and the squad was pretty depleted on Saturday and then the players have to try and get a day off work at very short notice. Now until the final team sheet is seen it is impossible to know for certain who is on that team bus, but I have seen it suggested that they may not have 10 outfield players. I did consider waiting to see the team news before having a bet, but I think it is a case of trying to beat the crowd on this one. Given the Gloucester players had a massive scare on Saturday I don't think they will take things lightly tonight and with the draw given them a home tie against a lower league side in the next round, it looks a decent opportunity to get to the 1st Round. Gloucester have done us a few favours already this season and even if Whitby do have 10 outfield players on the pitch I still think City will be too strong at the 2nd time of asking. For me the bet is on the -1 handicap with is 15/8 with Betfair and Paddy Power which could look very big depending on team news and looks a good bet anyway. Gloucester City -1 3pts @ 15/8 with Betfair, Paddy Power and Boylesports mcfoley, yossa6133 and Mindfulness 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted October 7, 2019 Author Share Posted October 7, 2019 Just after posting Whitby Tweeted this confirming the news I had been told https://whitby-town.com/injury-woes-mount-as-wearmouth-added-to-missing-party Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yossa6133 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 Looks like the price has well and truly gone as you suspected! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindfulness Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 13 minutes ago, yossa6133 said: Looks like the price has well and truly gone as you suspected! The price went faster than a toilet stop in Rattlesnake country. We will need the asian sovereign wealth funds to back Whitby into oblivion before more punters can get back on the Gloucester cash wagon. Darran and yossa6133 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted October 7, 2019 Author Share Posted October 7, 2019 It was annoying Whitby tweeted their news story just after I posted on here as that meant the info was out there for everyone so was going to go even quicker than I initially thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neubs Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 Today i will try small Mickleover against Morepeth... Mickleover on a good Run with just 1 Lose in last 7 Games. Opponent Morepeth with only 6 Games left, and they now have to Midweek-Games in a Row. This is the First and it will be difficult - also they must made a trip around a little bit over 3 Hours - so interesting to see how they can handle this in a Midweek Game, after tough Away Lose in FA-Cup Q Round against League Opponent Nantwich. For me price for Home Win is little bit too High. So i will try it with 2/10 Mickleover @ 2.25 2/10 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neubs Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 @Darran Any Opinion to the Fa-Cup Replay Game of Weston against Kingstonian. My feeling is that Kingstonian Odd is too High. They´ve good a late equalizer Goal in 90th Minute after they was down to 10 Men. So for me little bit unlucky. And they are not the weakest Travlers in League... Maybe here we´ve got here a surprise? sammydubs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted October 8, 2019 Author Share Posted October 8, 2019 6 hours ago, Neubs said: @Darran Any Opinion to the Fa-Cup Replay Game of Weston against Kingstonian. My feeling is that Kingstonian Odd is too High. They´ve good a late equalizer Goal in 90th Minute after they was down to 10 Men. So for me little bit unlucky. And they are not the weakest Travlers in League... Maybe here we´ve got here a surprise? Don’t have any strong view to be honest. Might be a bit high but they have under performed for me so far this season Neubs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teodore Posted October 8, 2019 Share Posted October 8, 2019 Dover ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neubs Posted October 8, 2019 Share Posted October 8, 2019 22 hours ago, Neubs said: Today i will try small Mickleover against Morepeth... Mickleover on a good Run with just 1 Lose in last 7 Games. Opponent Morepeth with only 6 Games left, and they now have to Midweek-Games in a Row. This is the First and it will be difficult - also they must made a trip around a little bit over 3 Hours - so interesting to see how they can handle this in a Midweek Game, after tough Away Lose in FA-Cup Q Round against League Opponent Nantwich. For me price for Home Win is little bit too High. So i will try it with 2/10 Mickleover @ 2.25 2/10 >bet365 Should have taken Kingstonian.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnmccain Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 Sounds like someone bet more money than they could afford... Shep65 and 0114soulman 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shep65 Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 1 hour ago, the bastardian said: and 20 dover only 4 hartlepool ? with darran stop no good from 3 years sorry mate Grow up. Darran is the best tipster on this site. Period. He's not infallible, but his record is superb. Unlucky week mate, that's the way it goes sometimes. My bank balance is much better for your hard work and altruism in sharing. Keep doing what you're doing. Many thanks. Gidds, freddie01, Sir Puntalot and 2 others 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yossa6133 Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 Didn't bring their shooting boots tonight, more than enough chances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindfulness Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 55 minutes ago, Shep65 said: Grow up. Darran is the best tipster on this site. Period. He's not infallible, but his record is superb. Unlucky week mate, that's the way it goes sometimes. My bank balance is much better for your hard work and altruism in sharing. Keep doing what you're doing. Many thanks. Couldn't have put it better myself. It's extremely rare to find a tipster / poster of Darran's quality. If people can't handle a couple of harsh coupons then they shouldn't even be gambling. I would echo @Johnmccain's post and say bettors need to have good bankroll management and not have too much faith in any given bet. Personally I never bet more than 2% of my total bankroll on any one bet. Your average betting odds should be an important factor when considering your BR management structure (the higher the average odds = smaller percentage of total bankroll per bet). If you can learn not to be outraged when you loose and not intoxicated when you win then you will be a better gambler, and perhaps a better person aswell. Johnmccain, freddie01, Shep65 and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted October 9, 2019 Author Share Posted October 9, 2019 Must admit I have never really understood his posts so have just ignored him. I've had bad spells, but this past week has been one of the toughest I have had. Tonight Hartlepool defended terribly for the two goals and despite having lots of possession didn't do enough with it in the final 3rd. If people want to stop following that's up to them, but prior to Saturday I had a great couple of sessions with 4 late goals making a huge difference to things. I've been posting on here for nearly 10 years now and only a couple of times have I struggled on match betting so it is proven that I will nearly always make a profit over a season. Obviously I can never guarantee that as it is gambling at the end of the day, but hopefully come the end of April we will all be a few quid up. Torque, Mindfulness, monty63 and 12 others 11 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 It's ridiculous to get on anyone's back about a losing run. Without the aid of a crystal ball, no matter how good you are at assessing the odds and trying to pick out value, there will always be losing runs. It's just impossible to avoid. What counts is results over a long series of bets. Mindfulness, monty63 and vikki37 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gruja Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 Yeah, people like this Bastardian deserve special ring of hell. Just ignore them Darran, at the end of the day you know who you are and what you gave to this community.? Shep65 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shep65 Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 Clearly someone has just wandered in, seen a few bad results, probably has a poor money management approach to betting and has sulked. Darran has had some spectacular results consistently and if you're sensible enough to bank those and continue following at modest stakes you, like me, are already massively in profit and see the bigger picture. I know Darran backs his own tips as much as posting, so it's a joint venture. He doesn't really follow the classic "justification" way of Profit/loss that many paid for tipsters do. He just "does" and succeeds. Thanks Darran. black_baar and monty63 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black_baar Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Probably he will sign up with another name and keep looking Darran's posts again ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ratty Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 I remember reading something along the same lines last season after a couple of adverse results and I posted figures. Unfortunatly some expect everything to win, have no idea about money management or don't understand odds too chance of success. Just for the record I bet Darran's recommendations. I don't always get the prices that Darran posts because of delay on my part from when Darran posts, often up to 8 hours later. My figures are as follows, Darran's profit will be bigger due to getting on at top end of market. Note that the Nap's are 6 wins and 10 losses for -5.86 points. I take the Nap as the biggest stake for that weekend or midweek. Total Stakes 158 points Returns 174.48 Profit 16.48 ROI 10.4% 10% ROI on football 1X2 market is more than credible and I would safely say that at prices recommended the ROI would be in excess of 12%. Resolvedtwo, Darran and Torque 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddie01 Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 I think that poster almosts deserves a red card for that post. It's unpleasent and not needed. Thankfully a lot of level headed people realise the hard work Darren puts in for free. Thanks Darren. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted October 10, 2019 Author Share Posted October 10, 2019 6 hours ago, Ratty said: I remember reading something along the same lines last season after a couple of adverse results and I posted figures. Unfortunatly some expect everything to win, have no idea about money management or don't understand odds too chance of success. Just for the record I bet Darran's recommendations. I don't always get the prices that Darran posts because of delay on my part from when Darran posts, often up to 8 hours later. My figures are as follows, Darran's profit will be bigger due to getting on at top end of market. Note that the Nap's are 6 wins and 10 losses for -5.86 points. I take the Nap as the biggest stake for that weekend or midweek. Total Stakes 158 points Returns 174.48 Profit 16.48 ROI 10.4% 10% ROI on football 1X2 market is more than credible and I would safely say that at prices recommended the ROI would be in excess of 12%. Cheers for those stats. I don't always get top price as I don't have easy access to a BetVictor account. The Naps would have been showing a profit before Saturday and Tuesday's disaster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Levred Moler Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Hi Darran That idiot's unnecessary posts motivated me to finally register, having been a silent follower for the last year. I bet in a similar manner, i.e. rarely odds on, mainly 2s or longer shots that I think should be 6/4 chances.....betting in that way does mean that no one is gonna get it right all the time, or even 50%, but then you don't need to at those average odds. I've found your analysis very helpful as I mainly bet Isthmian Prem as that's the League I see most games (following my team Leatherhead), and generally combinations of trebles & 4 folds which can mean longish losing runs but I don't need to nail many to get a decent return. Anyway, just wanted to belatedly add my thanks, and keep up the sterling work! Darran and Gidds 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Hi and welcome to PL @Levred Moler! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 @the bastardian Calm down and stop acting like you’re 12 years old or I’ll happily pull the trigger on you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theadder Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 I started betting Darrans tips last season made gd profit over season its a marathon not a Sprint Darran 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theadder Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 5 hours ago, freddie01 said: I think that poster almosts deserves a red card for that post. It's unpleasent and not needed. Thankfully a lot of level headed people realise the hard work Darren puts in for free. Thanks Darren. Well said Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horseoats Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Haters guna hate Darran, I’m glad you’ve ignored him. been following your posts for years and use a lot of what you put up to track and use further down the line, football and horses. Your non league knowledge is excellent and I’ve got a great couple of antepost bets running thanks to your info and input ? keep up the good work and please ignore the haters black_baar and Darran 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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