US Open 2019

[CzechPunter]

[DrO]

One early bet for me.

Bianca Vanessa Andreescu to win US Open - Yes - @19 local bookie

The young Canadian is a revelation of the season and a most pleasant surprise. She won Indian Wells this year. She got injured on Roland Garros but she's now back with a Toronto title.
The Grand Slam is a two-week long tournament and anything can happen of course and it's true that Bianca doesn't have much experience at that level, but that didn't stop Osaka from winning the title last year, for example.
No one is playing better on American HC this season than Andreescu and I think the bet is worth a small punt.

GL

Edited August 13, 2019 by DrO

[CzechPunter]

Men's Draw = https://www.usopen.org/en_US/scores/draws/2019_MS_draw.pdf

Women's Draw = https://www.usopen.org/en_US/scores/draws/2019_WS_draw.pdf

[CzechPunter]

So who's doing the preview this time around? 

[DrO]

C.Moutet - D.Goffin under 31.5 games @1.75 Local bookie

Moutet is more clay court player and he suffered a convincing defeat to Goffin in RG last year. It was 75 60 61 for the Belgian. Moutet lost against Steve Johnson in Winston Salem last week 36 36,while Goffin played final in Cincinnati so he's in good run. I expect a easy win for David.

[CzechPunter]

Right, so it's apparently time for the last Grand Slam of the season. Usually, I'd be rather excited and thrilled for the event, but, somehow, I find it really hard to get my hopes up, as I've been a bit disappointed by this season so far. Not results-wise, not betting-wise, I don't know what it is, but I just found it really hard to like a lot of matches. Some of the finals were great and the Grand Slams were quite nice as well, but the smaller tournaments...meh. Anyway, we now have a full set of matches ahead of us on Monday and Tuesday, so I suppose that I should just shut up and get right to them, eh? On another note, good luck to everyone who participates and an even better luck to everyone who gets a few posts in!

Day One

Let's start with the obvious one here, which is Williams to beat Sharapova. I've been looking at that bet pretty much ever since the draw was published and I think that there's every chance we're going to see a quick win for the American here. She's not at her best, of course, but there's still a lot of bad blood between the two and Sharapova is in an even worse form, so Serena should just get the job done in what should be an exciting night session. Sharapova doesn't have enough power to compete with ball-bashing right now, it really is that simple.

The second bet that I like is Muchova to recover from her defeat against the in-form Linette with a good win over Rybakina, who just doesn't have enough experience at this level and who will probably need a year or two before becoming competitive in Grand Slams. Muchova is solid, did well in the tournament last time out, and has enough match practice under her belt.

In terms of upsets, I wouldn't be shocked to see Martincova being fairly competitive against Pliskova, who tends to have slow starts and who might not fancy trying really hard against a compatriot that she knows isn't particularly strong. Martincova is coming off the qualifiers and should get the 17.5 games line covered much more often than not imo.

Finally, on the acca side of things, I'm picking Berdych to beat the young American Brooksby, the in-form Nishioka to beat the very average Giron, and Kerber not to mess up against Mladenovic.

Serena Williams (-4.5) to beat Maria Sharapova at 1.87 with Pinnacle
Karolina Muchova (-2.5) to beat Elena Rybakina at 1.83 with Bet365
T.Martincova/K.Pliskova - Over 17.5 games at 1.72 with Bet365
Berdych + Nishioka + Kerber at 2.08 with Bet365

Day Two

On day two, I very much fancy Linette to continue her good form and beat Sharma, who hasn't been doing all that well recently and who doesn't have much Grand Slam experience either. The fact that Linette has an extra day off should be of a great help and she is a solid type that doesn't have too many letdowns.

Apart from that one, I also like two underdogs, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and Andrey Rublev. The latter was naturally very good lately, while Tsitsipas is one of those players that blow hot and cold and who's blowing cold at the moment by the looks of everything. He's obviously somewhat better and more composed, but he's also sliding into some sort of a Zverev situation and could be ripe for a loss in what is a not particularly ideal first round draw. The outright price is juicy and appeals. Meanwhile, GGL seems to be going through a nice patch with a good run in the qualifiers, while Isner has been very disappointing recently. He would in an even poorer form without the serve to fall back on and this is the factor that isn't exactly making me love the outright option, but we're getting a nice price for four or more sets and that's what I'm going to go for.

Magda Linette (-2.5) to beat Astra Sharma at 1.88 with Pinnacle
Andrey Rublev to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas at 2.92 with Pinnacle
J.Isner/GGL - Over 3.5 sets at 1.83 with Unibet

Outrights

In terms of outrights, there are only a couple that I fancy. First, I like the odds for Nadal to win the entire thing, as he's been the most convincing of the bunch in the lead-up tournaments and as he still has what it takes to win. Second, Medvedev looks a juicy price to go further than Federer, as I think that the latter might suffer some sort of a Millman accident again after looking mentally beaten after Wimbledon. And, even if that doesn't happen, Medvedev's form might be good enough to carry him further on its own.

Rafael Nadal to win US Open 2019 at 4.00 with Bet365
Daniil Medvedev (vs. Roger Federer) at 3.00 with Bet365

[Teodore]

I think about triple for all 3 polish players. 

Linette and Hurkacz yesterday won in the finals... Światek also have quality to beat Jovoric. 

Polish power, come on! 

2.71 is ok for this triple. 

 

[South_African_Punter]

Outright US Open Men - Thiem to win @ 28.0

I will probably cash out the following bet at SF or Final stage, but I do believe Thiem is being underestimated by the bookies here at 28.0. The US Open courts aren't the fastest which obviously benefits Thiem. He has had an impressive year, most notably winning in California and making the finals of Roland Garros. Last year he was excruciatingly close in knocking out Nadal and I think he has got better since then.

[CzechPunter]

One more actually.

Prajnesh Gunneswaran (vs. Daniil Medvedev) - Over 9.5 games at 1.96 with Pinnacle

While I do fancy Medvedev to do really well, this is overshooting the mark a bit imo. Gunneswaran is bound to be pumped up for the challenge and ten games isn't a particularly massive line, as it pretty much requires just one tight set. Medvedev might be a bit nervous at the start of the even, while the Indian has nothing to lose and everything to win, so yeah, I'm definitely backing him to win ten games here.

[WinningTipster]

2 PICKS FOR US OPEN:

KENIN-VANDEWEGHE 2-0 SETS @ 1.55 pinnacle
BENCIC-MINELLA 2-0 SETS @ 1.41 unibet and others, 1.4 pinnacle
Vandeweghe is out-of-form, her serve is not working, has no tools to face-off Kenin.
Bencic is a better player, more powerful and better consistency also.
 

[CzechPunter]

Hi and welcome to the forum @freeyourself84! I think that his performances against Seppi and Krajinovic would be more than enough to beat Brooksby 3-0 or 3-1.

[bobix]

On 8/12/2019 at 3:55 PM, DrO said:

One early bet for me.

Bianca Vanessa Andreescu to win US Open - Yes - @19 local bookie

The young Canadian is a revelation of the season and a most pleasant surprise. She won Indian Wells this year. She got injured on Roland Garros but she's now back with a Toronto title.
The Grand Slam is a two-week long tournament and anything can happen of course and it's true that Bianca doesn't have much experience at that level, but that didn't stop Osaka from winning the title last year, for example.
No one is playing better on American HC this season than Andreescu and I think the bet is worth a small punt.

GL

Completely agreed, I also really like Bianca at this odds. Of course, it remains to be seen how she will progress during a 2-week tournament, how she will cope with the conditions, but currently I definitely rate her in the top 4 to raise the trophy.

Not really much else for me on the women's side regarding the outrights.

I think Lucas Pouille can have a decent chance to win the 2nd quarter and at odds 21.00 I have no choice but to back him  We saw him being able to raise his level of play on the big occasions, so why not?! I feel FedEx more than vulnerable and even the rest of the players are all but thrustworthy in a grand slam. Guido Pella in the same quarter is also very tempting at 67.00.

The 3rd quarter is also very interesting. Thiem no way, he barely played HC matches recently and was affected by a virus in Cincinnati, he even admitted that he does not expect miracles in this event, and that he does not even consider himself being able to reach the quarterfinals. I see no value in the bookies favorite Tsitsipas, but Bautista-Agut @7.00 could well do it. The Spaniard has the chance to finish in the ATP top 8, so he could qualify for London, this should be another good motivation for him to play a good tournament. I would also give a slight chance to Shapovalov and Rublev.

4th quarter winner: Nadal for me, without a doubt. Even at 1.66 I think it is clear value, there is literally nobody who can possibly bother him over there.

 

[DrO]

Berdych is embarrassing himself

[Torque]

That really was atrocious from Berdych. He made Brooksby look like Djokovic. Incredible to think he's five years younger than Fed. He looks done to me - wouldn't be surprised if he calls it quits soon.

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, not the start that I wanted obviously. Better days to come hopefully (although Martincova did well, for example) and a good call from @freeyourself84!

[CzechPunter]

Andy Murray to beat Norbert Gombos at 1.49 with Pinnacle

One last try with Murray for me, but I think he is going to do well this week. Gombos is far from both Sandgren and Gasquet, while Murray is getting better with each match. He's obviously going to have a tougher time than today, but he should get the job done.

[CzechPunter]

Pablo Cuevas to beat Kamil Majchrzak at 1.67 with Pinnacle

Reilly Opelka (-1.5 sets) to beat Dominik Koepfer at 1.88 with Betsson

Majchrzak was the lucky loser after Raonic withdrew and he did well to beat Jarry, but Cuevas represents a step up in quality and should be an even bigger fav imo. More quality, more experience, and Cuevas is class on almost all surfaces. Meanwhile, I very much liked Opelka's composure against Fognini and I think that he's going to record his fourth win in a row against Koepfer, who had a comparatively easier opponent in the first round and who's still on the edge between Challengers and ATP events quality-wise.

[WinningTipster]

1 PICK FOR THE US OPEN:

KENIN-SIEGEMUND 2-0 SETS @ 1.5 pinnacle
SIegemund plays her best on clay. On US hard courts Kenin is simply a better player and she is in great form recently.

 

[notanotherdonkey]

Us open women’s Jil Teichmann to beat E Mertens 11-4 

[bobix]

Guys, what do you think about the today Popyrin - Delbonis match? I have a 7-fold fun bet alive from yesterday: Booksby to win a set, Dellien to win a set, Djokovic to win 3-0, Pouille to win, Benchetrit to win a set, Pella to win a set, and... Popyrin to win. Total odds is 13.23, so I am considering countering the Australian, albeit I still trust and consider him the right favorite against Delbonis. He is already starting to be a regular at ATP appointments and his progression is being very positive. Apart from being his favorite surface, this will be his sixth consecutive HC tournament, so the adaptation should be maximum. During the AO and Wimbledon he already showed that is not afraid against the already established names in the circuit.

Edited August 27, 2019 by bobix

[CzechPunter]

I have that match down as almost a coin-flip. Popyrin is better on hard courts, but I'd say that Delbonis is still slightly classier overall and yesterday was fairly pleasant for clay court players. If you can cash things out live, wait for the start and then decide. If Popyrin starts well, he should win easily. Otherwise, you should probably lay things off.

[bobix]

3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

I have that match down as almost a coin-flip. Popyrin is better on hard courts, but I'd say that Delbonis is still slightly classier overall and yesterday was fairly pleasant for clay court players. If you can cash things out live, wait for the start and then decide. If Popyrin starts well, he should win easily. Otherwise, you should probably lay things off.

Yeah, I have to agree, and probably this is what I am going to do. I also feel some sort of danger in Delbonis, mainly because of his experience, let's see how it goes.

[darko08]

Radu Albot to beat Alexander Zverev at 2.75 with bet365

Ernesto Escobedo to beat Hyeong Chung at 4.33 with bet365

Nothing much to say here, the "favorite" players are in a very bad form and I think that their opponents will have more chances than the odds suggest.

[cialivinci]

Zverev vs Albot no one to win in straight sets  at 1.61 with @bet365

Firstly i dont see zverev as i high favorite due to his personal issues and lack of persistance in his perfomances this year while Albot has a 30-17 record on hard court this year and could be dangerous against a not in form zverev which would make a bet against the favorite considerable.

I‘m going with a bit „safer“ alternative and say that no one will win in straight sets.

[darko08]

I can't imagine why anybody posted the victory of Dellien against Kwon Soon-woo at 9.00. Like 3 weeks ago i posted here the victory of Ivashka against him at almost 3.00. Anybody can explain me why this korean guy that had done nothing remarkable in the ATP is constantly treated by the bookies like a top 10 player..? 

[bobix]

15 minutes ago, darko08 said:

Radu Albot to beat Alexander Zverev at 2.75 with bet365

Ernesto Escobedo to beat Hyeong Chung at 4.33 with bet365

Nothing much to say here, the "favorite" players are in a very bad form and I think that their opponents will have more chances than the odds suggest.

I am not quite sure about Escobedo, who is nothing more than a challenger level player, albeit with some decent results recently. OK, Chung is coming back from a serious injury, but he already appeared at some challenger tournaments and crushed all his opponents in the qualies, apparently ready to compete at the highest level again. Quality-wise there is no question for me who is the better player, and I think the odds are correctly allocated. Therefore I personally don't see any value in backing any of the players.

[bobix]

6 minutes ago, darko08 said:

I can't imagine why anybody posted the victory of Dellien against Kwon Soon-woo at 9.00. Like 3 weeks ago i posted here the victory of Ivashka against him at almost 3.00. Anybody can explain me why this korean guy that had done nothing remarkable in the ATP is constantly treated by the bookies like a top 10 player..? 

IMHO Kwon is one of the most overrated players right now and you can well make advantage from that. It was a joke to give him odds under 1.10 yesterday. Dellien might be a sole claycourt player, barely playing on HC, but he has a good mentality and is fighting for every point. Backing him to win a set at evens was a real gift. 

[Teodore]

I cant understand what Hurkacz did but ok... 

 

I see small value on Linette against Osaka. Linette play good tennis last week. Yesterday also she show great form and I think Osaka is currently maybe not under form but for sure itd not her top. 

 

[aphro]

I would assume that it's almost strangest day from my point of view:

Vasek Pospisil won Karen Khachanov odd: 8.76

Thomas Fabbiano won Dominic Thiem odd: 6.5 (started at 11.96)

Cedrik-Marcel Stebe won Filip Krajinovic odd: 5.27

Pablo Andujar won Kyle Edmund odd: 5.03

 

Is it solar or moon influence? should i go to astrologyst next time before betting?

[South_African_Punter]

3 hours ago, aphro said:

I would assume that it's almost strangest day from my point of view:

Vasek Pospisil won Karen Khachanov odd: 8.76

Thomas Fabbiano won Dominic Thiem odd: 6.5 (started at 11.96)

Cedrik-Marcel Stebe won Filip Krajinovic odd: 5.27

Pablo Andujar won Kyle Edmund odd: 5.03

 

Is it solar or moon influence? should i go to astrologyst next time before betting?

Also Kukushin against Agut (8.75)