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No because I don’t trust the jockey the trainer or the owner ie pulling up not trying and even failing off 😂

Catterick Time: 14:10 pm Kubler Ross 22/1 EW Time: 15:10 pm - Merrijiig 25/1 EW Time: 16:40 pm - A taste of honey 10/1 EW Time: 17:12 pm - The waiting game 11/1EW Good Luck all, we could all do with some luck 😀

7.50 Southwell Miss Mocktail 100/1 bet365 EW

It's Finals night. Just 4 remain with pre-tournament pick Clayton taking on Price. Michael Smith taking on MVG and then we'll see the final of the 2023 Premier League. I'm effectively on Clayton to beat Price at 5/1 here so I will leave that match alone but I will take Smith to beat MVG and hit the most 180s in the match, also. MVG had injury concerns last week and withdrew to allow Van Den Bergh to go on and win the night. He then didn't look too great in the Players Championship events. Meanwhile, Clayton won one of those events, which bodes well for pre-tournament backers. I feel like Smith wins this evetn as of right now but hopefully Clayton can atleast make another Premier League final. 2pts Smith to beat MVG and hit most 180s 7/4 Bet365

Limerick 6pm Hurricane Georgie Win Receives 15lb from Jeremy’s flame and is only rated 4lbs inferior to the top rated runner. The five pound claim is crucial. In their only previous meeting jf was a last fence faller and horses and jockeys fall under pressure. The pressure came from both dolchita and the selection who were first and second. Goes well fresh and Gordon Elliott likely to have this race targeted as winnable.

Bet 35 Cat 3.40 Chamber Choir 5/1 Cat 5.12 The Waiting Game 20/1 Wol 4.20 Huscari 14/1 San 6.12 Lady Reset 10/1 10p L15 with Boylesports

Mr Zippi 19.20 Southwell 20/1 bet365 Each way

Would you trust AI programme at an expert level to predict results of races? If results were shown to make consistent profits over a selected period.

Patent. 3.10. Catt. Paisano 9/4 2.10. Catt. Peace Wall 2/1 8.42. Sand. Umberto 11/2 stk 3.50 rtn 63.00 Good luck all.

It’s inevitable isn’t it, but it can only do so much like the information now can only do or show us so much . It will become very popular though and bookies will no doubt use it so expect slimming of the odds. Probably better finding an angle to go against AI

Day 6 mine and Carole’s lucky 31 should have had the £40 cash out after 2 races of day 1 😂 Carole’s top 3 🐎

Another cracking each way return for @Craig bluenose, 100/1 3rd place Miss Mocktail at Southwell, takes him over 100 points

1720 War BLOWAVEGO 6/1 BETFAIR

Ermmm why? thing is if you get one you will wish you had put all the stake on the acca try for 5 gg acca at least when you eventually get one up you can pay @Carole-dawney back because you will be using her dosh coz urs will have run out....🤣😂 no 🍷 for you Lee.

I stuck a fiver on United win and Martial to score at 7/2 when they were the standout 13/5 earlier (see goalscorer thread). Used the daily 10% boost to edge the odds upwards.

I was aware of the offer but pretty sure I don’t get it. Applies to most player markets if a player is subbed off before the break. I think it might mean a bet builder is voided if it included that player.

Speaking of subs, last night you tipped Haksabanovic to score and I backed him on your advice. After 20 minutes he was subbed and I didn't think any more of it - it was only a £5 so no big loss. Turns out Bet365 gave me £5 bet credits because he was subbed in the first half - I didn't know they did that!

A quick look at Uni's rules (and a post on their forum) suggests that they void anytime bets where a player doesn't start so, with that in mind, 10 points on Martial at 13/5 with Uni (should be voided if he doesn't start). I'm happy to back him at that price. I'll be querying it should the bet not be voided if he starts on the bench. I'll post an update if it ends up not being a bet for this system but his spread price would need to drop quite a bit for it not to qualify.

Back on the lucky train tomorrow. Some half decent flat races

I've done the rest of the players who are priced in system range. Martial is the only other potential bet for this system (spreads 20-35) and he would be a bet at 13/5 which is a massive standout. He'd be a bet at anything over 2/1 and is shorter than that everywhere else. Shame it's not with 365 who offer "void if not starting" as I've been burnt a few times lately backing players who end up coming on as sub. Weghorst, Antony and Fernandes are all potential "B" system bets (spreads 15-19) but are shorter than I'd be willing to back them at unless I could get my target price on the exchange.

Incidentally, if you wanted a very simple system for picking goalscorer bets based purely on the spread and fixed odds prices you could go with this: Back any player whose spread price is 20 or more provided the best bookies price is 13/10 (2.3) or more. Based on data from around 3000 players such selections have an ROI of around 1% and you'll get better on BF sometimes. Worth knowing as a starting point and if you're looking for a component in a Bet Builder that is fair at worst. @MCLARKE maybe a pity I can't get such selections in a L15 with double the odds for one winner! "Spread price" = the market midpoint as per the Rashford example above. "Best bookies price" is taken from Oddschecker. I only use firms I've had accounts with to avoid the occasional fly by night firm who offer silly prices to attract black type but you probably wouldn't go far wrong just looking at all firms at the moment. My "panel" of 15 firms is the 12 from 365 on the left up to Boyles on the right plus Lads, Betway and SPIN.

Went with speith, hovland and Burns wins only. Ew on Davis and Rodgers. Kitayama 1st round leader Used the Ladbrokes random golfer, but not sure if it's the best option, this is my 4th time, first 3 were random 125/1, not had anyone under that and this time is down to 100/1 and I pulled Fritelli who is 500/1, 😕 My Dad has went Fleetwood and S W Kim.

Saved by a non runner £0.20 back out £31.00 in £8.60

418 long curvature 9/1 bet 365

5.20 Warwick Kilfilum Woods ( each way ) 13/2 Bet 365

Dunno if it's just me but this years Derby looks a little sub standard at first glance .......I've completed the first scan of the race and it's put 2 horses well clear over the 3rd ....a full .7 so although that might adjust a little on ground I can't see anything surpassing them on rating now Arrest 9.2 13/2 The foxes 9.0 9/1 Both are improving fast ....both are from good trainers who do well in race ....if I had to separate them ...on paper arrest stands out as a progeny of Frankel....so that rings bells as being top rated and that pedigree ....overall I think both these will carry my money this year in the derby...there's a bit of value in prices too .......anyone else got thoughts on race ??

The Greek & The Abbey Both won to make up for reading Jeremy wrong. ( I probably backed him when he fell) but he had the class from winning in the lead up to Cheltenham and ran well there when, but for a mistake he'd have got fourth. I forget the race tonight was no better than a handicap so he easily dealt with his few rivals. Chef de troupe grabbed fourth place at a nice 12/1.

@alexcaruso808 Thanks for your question about Rashford earlier as I might not have grabbed that price about Martial if it wasn’t for that. You led me to take an early look at the game and check out Uni’s rules on non-starters, which is worth knowing for future reference. I think that might just push the ROI for this thread above the target ROI based on the overall data sample, for however long that might last. The decision to switch off one of the filters at the start of this month has certainly paid off as the additional selections have performed really well.

Superboost Man U v Chelsea both teams > 2.5 SOT

Limerick 6.30 San Salvador 9/2ew 3pl Limerick 7.00 Repeat That 18/1ew 4pl Limerick 7.30 Bonne Debut 25/1ew 4pl Limerick 8.00 Tullyhogue Fort 13/2ew 5pl £3.00 Lucky15 Pot returns £3,020.77

Thanks Harry, I was reading through the thread and trying to better understand your selections.

I also added a couple of well backed ones. Bezuidenhout 50/1 and Reavie 175/1 both ew.

Just for a laugh can we get a 4 timer what’s the odds 😂😂

Sandown 18.20 £10 EW Regal Rambler @20/1 bet365

Manchester United vs Chelsea Manchester United fans will want a repeat of their previous result, the 1-0 Premier League triumph against Bournemouth. In that match, Manchester United had 59% possession and 20 attempts on goal with five on target. After that success, the Red Devils need only one point to lock the top-four finish. They are currently three points ahead of the fifth-placed Liverpool, with a game in hand. Man Utd will also search their third straight Premier League win on Thursday evening. However, Tom Heaton (Ankle Injury), Scott McTominay (Unknown Injury), Marcel Sabitzer (Meniscal Injury), Lisandro Martínez (Metatarsal Fracture), and Donny van de Beek (Knee Injury) aren't available for Manchester United manager Erik ten Hag. Since tasting defeat last time out to Manchester City in Premier League action, Chelsea and their traveling supporters will be hoping that they can get a better result in this one. In that game, Chelsea managed 35% possession and 13 attempts at goal, with 6 of them on target. The Blues want to forget this disappointing campaign since they are closer to the relegation zone than the continental qualification spots. They won only once on the previous 12 occasions in all competitions, and a lot of work will be ahead of their new boss Maurizio Pochettino. Chelsea manager Frank Lampard has to choose from a squad that has some fitness concerns. Marc Cucurella (Muscle Injury), Benoît Badiashile (Unknown Injury), Ben Chilwell (Hamstring Injury), N'Golo Kanté (Groin Injury), Reece James (Hamstring Injury), Mason Mount (Pelvis Injury), and Armando Broja (Cruciate Ligament Rupture) can't be considered. Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction Although this is considered a derby match, Manchester United has a much better momentum ahead of this game. The hosts will be more motivated to stay in the top-four zone, and we expect them to beat the Blues at Old Trafford. Goals Market Prediction Manchester United was involved in games with at least three goals only twice on the previous nine occasions. They tend to get the lead and play without much risk. On the other hand, Chelsea has trouble in front of the opponent's net, and this game should stay under a 2.5 margin. Manchester United to win @ 1.65 Under 2.5 FT @ 2.35 Correct score 1:0 @ 8.40

Sandown Time 19:42 pm - Chichester 50/1 £10 EW

Frustrating isn’t it . I noticed your selection win and as you said it went off much shorter, so good value .

Nao Hibino to beat Ylena In-Albon at 1.58 with Unibet Hibino has been one of the most pleasant surprises for me in recent times, she's really played herself into quite some form ahead of the qualifiers, and she looked very prepared in the previous round, completely out-playing a semi-competent opponent without wasting much energy. I think she's two levels ahead of In-Albon form-wise, and I like the odds for her to win.

With all the main trials run I thought it would be a good time to take stock and have a fresh look at the Epsom Derby to be run over a mile and a half a week this Saturday. There are currently twenty one still entered with two declaration stages to go plus the possibility of a horse/s being supplemented at a cost of £85,000 Here’s a horse by horse analysis with an ante-post play at the end. ADELAIDE RIVER Trainer: Aiden O’Brien One of eight O’Brien horses still left in the race. Was 6 1/2L behind Arrest in Chester Vase on his re-appearance and will need to improve considerably on that to feature. Current odds: 66/1 ALDER Trainer: Donnacha O’Brien Runner up to San Antonio in Chester’s Dee Stakes over 10F following a win at Cork in April. Stepping up in trip here may bring about some improvement but will need to. Current odds: 25/1 ARREST Trainer: John & Thady Gosden Bidding to give Frankie Dettori a winning Derby ride in his last year and has sound claims of doing so. Best run as a two year old when finishing a head runner up in Group 1 Criterium de Saint Cloud in October on heavy ground to Dubai Mike and sluiced through the mud when a very easy winner of the Chester Vase by 6 1/2L from Adelaide River. Has won on good to firm although his two best runs have come with plenty of ease in the ground so any rain will suit this Juddmonte owned Frankel colt who has a live chance. Current odds: 13/2 ARTISTIC STAR Trainer: Ralph Beckett Shown good form in winning a Nottingham maiden last October and a 10F novice stakes contest at Sandown earlier this month from Torito. A promising sort who his trainer stated after his recent victory that the Derby may come too soon and Royal Ascot is a more realistic target. Current odds: 50/1 AUGUSTE RODIN Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Arguably the best two year old from last season winning a Naas maiden, Group 2 at Leopardstown and the Group 1 Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes at Doncaster all with give in the ground. Went off 13/8 favourite when a major flop in the 2000 Guineas, getting bumped by his stable mate Little Big Bear and trailing home in 12th (of 14) place beaten 22L. Steps up from a mile to a mile and a half here and his trainer has been talking him up since but looks poor value at his current odds on his 2000 Guineas run. Current odds: 7/2 COVENT GARDEN Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Placed third on re-appearance in 1M 5F listed race at Navan. Yet another Aiden O’Brien runner who looks more of a stayer and hard to fancy. Current odds: 100/1 DEAR MY FRIEND Trainer: Charlie Johnstone Won the Burradon Stakes on the all weather at Newcastle in April but was beaten 6 3/4L into 8th place in the Dante Stakes at 22/1 and looks highly unlikely to give rookie trainer Charlie Johnstone a Derby winner in his first year training in his own name. Current odds: 66/1 DUBAI MILE Trainer: Charlie Johnstone Smart juvenile finishing runner up to The Foxes ( beaten 1/2L) in the Royal Lodge before taking the Group 1 Criterium de Saint Cloud on heavy ground by a head from Arrest over 10F. Made a highly satisfactory re-appearance when fifth in 2000 Guineas, beaten 5 1/4L by Chaldean and the longer trip of The Derby looks highly likely to suit. Looks overpriced and looks a very interesting runner for his first season (in his name anyway) trainer. Current odds: 16/1 ESPIONAGE Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Not seen since last October when beaten a head by Proud And Regal in Group 1 Criterium International at Saint Cloud on heavy ground. Longer trip today should suit and one of the better outsiders if allowed to take his chance for Aiden O’Brien. Current odds: 40/1 GOOLOOGONG Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Naas 10F winner on heavy ground back in March by 2 1/4L from Nation’s Call ( beaten since) with the pair a long way clear of the remainder. Form doesn’t amount to much and would need a giant leap of faith if allowed to take his chance. Current odds: 40/1 GREENLAND Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Another Aiden O’Brien entry who finished just a length and a quarter behind The Foxes in the Royal Lodge last backend. Winner of a Group 3 at Saint Cloud over 10 1/2F on very soft ground at beginning of this month and needs to step his form up further to play a part in the finish if allowed to take his chance. Current odds: 66/1 KING OF STEEL Trainer: Roger Varian Last seen when running down the field in the Vertem Futurity at Doncaster in October beaten some 9 3/4L by winner Auguste Rodin for owners Amo Racing for trainer David Loughnane. Has since joined Roger Varian and was a 28/1 chance when playing up in stalls for the Dante Stakes at York last week when being withdrawn. Current odds: 100/1 MILITARY ORDER Trainer: Charlie Appleby A full brother to the 2021 Derby winner Adayar and has followed his hoof prints in winning at Newbury impressively on his re-appearance and following up in the Lingfield Derby Trial, run on the all weather, by 1 1/4L from Waipiro at a track that wouldn’t have shown him at his best. Already done more than his illustrious brother, who got beat in the Lingfield Derby Trial, prior to winning this and looks sure to run a big race. Current odds: 3/1 MODESTY Trainer: Freddie & Martyn Meade Ran out a comfortable 3L winner of a 1M York maiden last October from a 74 rated maiden. That form looks average enough and a massive ask to step up from that to be involved here. Current odds: 100/1 PASSENGER Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute Will need to be supplemented at a cost of £85,000 if his connections wish to run. Was the unlucky horse in the Dante Stakes at York when jockey Richard Kingscote continually failing to get a clear passage flashing home to finish 1 1/2L third to The Foxes and White Birch. That was only his second ever start having won the Wood Ditton at Newmarket in April on his racecourse bow. Stoute’s last three Derby winners (including last year with Desert Crown) ran in this, with Workforce finishing runner up on his second career start prior to winning at Epsom. I'm reliably informed that he will be supplemented and looks likely to be a springer in the market when that news breaks. PADDINGTON Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Has improved this season winning a Naas handicap comfortably when well backed and a listed race at The Curragh earlier this month by a length and a half from Drumroll. Yet to race beyond a mile although his dam won at upto 1M 5F so should stay well enough. Going the right way and if allowed to take his chance there would be worse 40/1 chances than him. Current odds: 40/1 SAN ANTONIO Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Followed up a comfortable 3 3/4L Dundalk maiden win in March with victory in the listed Dee Stakes at Chester by 1 /4L from Alder over 1M 2 1/2F. Extra distance here should be fine and progressing the right way. Current odds: 25/1 SPREWELL Trainer: Jessie Harrington Followed up his Naas win in March with comfortable 3L victory in the Leopardstown Derby Trial from a couple of useful sorts in Up And Under and Proud And Regal. Extra 2F here will no doubt suit and looks a player although has only run on soft ground so possibly wouldn’t want a fast ground (unlikely) Derby. Current odds: 10/1 SQUIRE DANAGHER Trainer: A Oliver A thrice raced maiden that looks totally out his depth here. Likely to finish last if turning up. Current odds: 200/1 THE FOXES Trainer: Andrew Balding Has some top class form in winning Group 1 Royal Lodge as a juvenile and following a credible runner up in the Craven Stakes at Newmarket took the Dante Stakes at York last week by a neck from White Birch. Extra furlong and a half here should suit and holds genuine each way claims. Current odds: 10/1 WAIPIRO Trainer: Ed Walker Stepped up when giving current favourite Military Order a scare at Lingfield in their Derby Trial run on the all-weather earlier this month when going down by a length and a quarter. Lightly raced and no shock were he to hit the frame at nice odds on that run alone. Current odds: 20/1 WHITE BIRCH Trainer: John Joseph Murphy Stepped up from his Group 3 Leopardstown victory in April when running a stormer in the Dante Stakes in chasing home The Foxes only going down by a neck. Highly rated by his trainer and has solid each way claims. Current odds: 14/1 Aiden O’Brien has left eight in although he has stated not all will run with his main hope Auguste Rodin still very high in his thoughts. I can’t get over his poor run at Newmarket and for me is opposable at his current odds. Military Order is going the right way for the boys in blue although he didn’t blow me away last time on the all weather in winning the Lingfield Derby Trial although to be fair the track wouldn’t have played to his strengths that day. Arrest had little to beat when winning well at Chester and obviously prefers some cut in the ground likewise Irish challenger Sprewell. Passenger will no doubt be a springer in the market when he’s supplemented for this as he was the one to take out of the Dante Stakes in finishing an unlucky third. His trainer is never one to rush his horses mind so until he’s committed to the race has to be watched. The value in the race may be with Charlie Johnstone’s Dubai Mile who beat Arrest as a two year old but can be backed at over double the odds. There was plenty to like about his 5th in the 2000 Guineas over a trip woefully too short for him (he won a Group 1 as a juvenile over 10F on soft ground) and looks each way value at a top priced 16/1. DUBAI MILE 1 point each way @ 16/1 Watch DubaiMile work this morning:- https://twitter.com/ValueRacingPlus/status/1661299085071077377?s=20

Ayr 430. muker. 9/2. Bet365.

Epsom Derby Speed figures, I will agree with Richard that most of this lot seem pretty average with the exception of a few. 1. The Foxes 139 8/1 2. White Birch 136 12/1 3. Passenger 131++p 13/2 (needs to be supplemented) 4 Military Order 129 3/1

Wolverhampton Time: 14:40 pm - you're Cool 10/1 with bet365

3.30 Huntingdon Thorpeness 50/1 bet365 EW

Pateen 20.50 Hexham 9/1 Bet365

brighton 3-23diamond cottage 7/1 bet365

Stockport (1) 1.75 Carlisle (1) 2.15 Brighton (1) 1.20 £10 treble thankingtons 😀

50$ Lens @1.65 PSG @1.35