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Racing Chat - Saturday 28th September
Brahmin and 2 others reacted to The Brigadier for a topic
Newmarket 1.15 The day’s terrestrial TV action starts with a 7F class 2 fillies nursery which has attracted eleven runners. It has an open enough look about it with recent winners Ghost Run, Naina, Harmonia, Geo and Magic Love all having claims. My pick is the latter who is trained by Harry Charlton and ridden by Trevor Whelan. The grey filly made a winning handicap debut at Thirsk on good to soft ground earlier this month when well backed. She ran on well to score by 1 1/4L and this step up to 7F looks likely to suit as there’s plenty of stamina on her dam’s side. She’s been raised 6lb for that victory but may have more to give now at this trip and can reward an each way bet. MAGIC LOVE 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 Haydock 1.30 The first of two races covered by the ITV cameras to be raced on very soft ground. Ten go to post for this class 2 1M handicap in which the ability to handle conditions will be paramount. Wednesday’s Goodwood winner Rhoscolyn will be one of them but he does have a 5lb penalty and top weight of 10-5 which will make this tough. Irish raider Earls is another who will love conditions and can run well for Gavin Cromwell but the value pick may well be the George Boughey trained Amo Racing owned Raadobarg who sports a first time visor and has dropped 8lb for his last four starts which have come on unsuitably good fast ground. 8lb lower today than his excellent Irish Lincoln third at The Curragh in March he looks well handicapped and will relish the sloppy conditions. RAADOBARG 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 123 Newmarket 1.50 The first of three Group races for two-year-olds at Newmarket today is this Group 2 Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes run over a mile. The form horse, and highest rated, is James Owen flag bearer Wimbledon Hawkeye who took his form to a new level last time out when runner up to current Derby favourite The Lion In Winter in the Acomb Stakes at York. He’s yet to encounter any cut in the ground however and with the ground looking likely to ride on the soft side preference is for Charlie Fellowes’s Luther who he has stated is the best he’s ever trained. A Salisbury maiden win preceded a 1/2L second to subsequent Grade 1 Canadian winner New Century which in hindsight was no disgrace before getting back to winning ways in a hot eight runner listed race at Haydock. He too has yet to encounter easy ground but his mother won on easy ground and he’s the pick. LUTHER 1 point win @ 9/4 William Hill Newmarket 2.25 A field of eight run in this Group 1 Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes for juvenile fillies. The two fillies at the top of the market are both unbeaten in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes winner Lake Victoria for Aidan O’Brien and the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes winner Babouche trained by Ger Lyons. Neither of the two Irish fillies have encountered easy ground although on breeding both could actually relish it. Preference of the duo is the latter who looks very smart. Owned by today’s sponsors she beat subsequent Group 1 winner Whistlejack by a length and a half at The Curragh and with her full sister Zarinsk a three time winner on soft ground can run well if coping with the sloppy conditions. Lowther winner Celandine (Leovanni held) may prefer it faster with her trainer Ed Walker stating that the “quicker the ground the better” for her. With the ground testing the two French fillies are maybe the value bets. P Cottier’s Daylight is already a winner on heavy ground and her third last time out behind Whistlejack and Rashabar in the Group 1 Prix Morny reads very well. Back against her own sex and with slight doubts on the ground against the front two Irish fillies she looks the bet although the F-H Graffard’s trained Rayevka who impressed in the mud last time out and is worth a small each way saver in a terrific contest. DAYLIGHT 1 point win @ 9/2 William Hill RAYEVKA 1/2 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 123 Curragh 2.35 Just five assemble for the Group 2 Beresford Stakes for two-year-olds run over 1M. A strong fancy here is the Jessie Harrington trained Hotazhell who followed up a Group 3 victory at Leopardstown in July with a 1L second to the useful Henry Matisse in the Group 2 Futurity Stakes here over 7F with Scotty Champ a length back in third. The latter has gone on to beat Henry Matisse in the Group 1 National Stakes to frank the form and Hotazhell will be hard to beat. British raider Windlord who was impressive when winning at York and 12L Galway maiden winner Trinity College look the dangers but neither have achieved as much as the selection who will be ridden today by Shane Foley on what, hopefully, could be a big day for Harrington. HOTAZHELL 1 point win @ 5/2 William Hill Newmarket 3.00 The Group 1 Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes run over 6F for two-year-old colts will have eight runners and a warm favourite in the shape of the Aidan O’Brien trained Whistlejacket who will be very hard to beat. Last seen winning the Group 1 Prix Morny at Deauville in August from Coventry Stakes winner Rashabar on good to soft ground he has 7lb and upwards ahead of his field on official ratings and can even run a bit below par and still win this. The two most likely to take advantage if he doesn’t run up to his form are stable companion Ides Of March who’s chasing a hat trick of victories following a maiden and Group 3 win at The Curragh in good style and the Charlie Appleby trained Shadow Of Light who was pulled out of the Mill Reef Stakes last weekend at Newbury due to the heavy ground. His Gimcrack form at York has worked out well and he can be the one to chase home Whistlejack. WHISTLEJACK 1 point win @ Evens William Hill Haydock 3.15 Ten run in this class 2 5F handicap in which I have a strong fancy. Top weight and current favourite Wiltshire comes here having been upped 6lb for a win on the all-weather at Newcastle in June. A winner on good to soft he has been soundly beaten on his two career starts on soft and makes the market here for my pick the seven-year-old Alberma Gold who adores the mud. His figures on heavy ground read 11194 with the ninth when not staying at 7F and the 4th when not disgraced in listed company. David O’Meara’s mudlark is 11lb lower than when winning at Doncaster 11 months ago on heavy ground and this will be the first time since that he has had his conditions. The only negative is the draw as he’s drawn in one on the wing but as long as that’s not an issue here he looks worth a decent bet with Mark Winn on top. ALBERAMA GOLD 1 point each way @ 15/2 bet365 1/5th 123 Newmarket 3.40 The day’s big handicap and feature race is the bet365 Cambridgeshire Handicap with thirty five horses spread actress the Rowley Mile racing over 9F. High numbers have had an advantage in recent years so with that in mind my short list comprises of last year’s third Bopedro who can race off of a 6lb lower mark today and teed up for this with his best run of the season when runner up to Johan at Doncaster, Norwalk Havoc who I can not understand why he is currently three times the price of the gambled on favourite This Songisforyou when he finished 1 1/2L ahead of him in a Curragh handicap at the Galway festival and is now 5lb better off. The softer the better for Jessie Harrington’s charge and he will be my number one pick. Also worth a mention and a small stakes ew saver is the Iain Jardine trained Paddy The Squire who looks massively overpriced on his Hamilton form with Theoryofeverything when going down by a short head on his first run for a year and is now 5lb better off. Again he is four times the price of Theoryofeverything and must surely be closer in the betting. John & Thady Gosden’s Roi De France has yet to encounter easy ground and lacks experience and with the last four winners priced at 40/1,40/1, 25/1 and 20/1 it seems its a race to look away from the front of the market. NORWALK HAVOC 1 point each way @ 18/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456 PADDY THE SQUIRE 1/2 point each way @ 66/1 bet365 1/5th 1234563 points -
Well I held my nerve and copped the full £12.01 so cheers to @Zilzalian for flagging that one, though I've made more following some of his racing selections! Some "highlights" of the cashout offer in play: £7.14 when Arsenal were 1-0 up and Liverpool had just kicked off £6.85 with Arsenal 2-0 up and Liverpool 1-1 (just before HT in the former and half an hour into the latter) £6.10 with Liverpool still 1-1 at the break and Arsenal 3-1 up £8.94 when Liverpool were 2-1 up after 54 minutes and Arsenal 4-1 up £9.06 around 15 minutes later with just another Arsenal goal scored £10.67 with Liverpool 3-1 up and 5 minutes to go, Arsenal won. Liverpool 1.01 to lay by this point Once it was safe to regard Arsenal as weighed in I think it's equally safe to say you'd have been quite a bit better off laying Liverpool on the exchange than taking the cashout. What's the point though, stick the bet on and let it run. I don't do a lot of these sort of bets but once I've done the study and got my bets on I'm ready to chill and just keep an eye on the scores without having to manage the bets on an ongoing basis. There's only so much time I want to spend "on duty"!3 points
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Not had a proper dig into it yet, do you pay any attention to the Grand Prix qualification standings? Players like Dirk/Gilding just outside as it stands and needs a result this weekend.2 points
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I'll be going with this lot at the weekend Chisnall 22/1 R.Smith 25/1 Rock 28/1 Van Veen 40/12 points
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£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome
LEE-GRAYS and one other reacted to silver fox for a topic
Won Profit: £140 Month: +£1352 points -
Racing Chat - Saturday 28th September
Brahmin and one other reacted to Tedthewolf for a topic
Cracking race and an enjoyable puzzle to try and solve but i am very keen on last years 3rd BOPEDRO having said that i feel there is a horse at outstanding price a must e/w bet for me that is 33/1 shot MAJESTIC from the Channon yard looks a good draw, nice weight, won't mind the soft ground & super value imho . I'm on 6 places and hopefully my Irish eyes will be smiling after the race i think i have two very good e/w chances!2 points -
Swiss Darts Trophy starts tomorrow afternoon Think Callan Rydz is a good favourite over Dolan after giving him a good beating a couple of weeks ago 1.8 with SpreadEx2 points
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After everybody's opinion on here, I think it's safe to say that HighBet are one to avoid and they've been removed from the website.2 points
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Racing chat- Thurs 26th sept
calva decoy and one other reacted to Brahmin for a topic
Hi all, well 3 days of top class racing at Newmarket with 'The Cambridgeshire meeting' on the Rowley Mile course 🐎......which also includes the Oktoberfest 🍻 🌭 🍗 🎵.... our local HQ friends going and said the going will be 'good to soft'......🤞 for same luck a last year for them, as they did very nicely over the 3 days 🥂 💷...... 'we' not going as off to the sunshine for 2 weeks for 'someones' birthday 😜 💃 🍸 🌞......... a few choices we told are..... in opener is Gosdens 'Devils Advocate' / race 3 Osbornes 'Executive Decision' / race 5 'Al Nayyir' ............ so wish you all good luck 🤞 💷 whether going racing or just betting.......2 points -
I find using Betfair very easy to use (I simply pick Betfair Starting Price so don't have to worry about the odds or when I place my bets). The prices are generally much better than the bookies even with BOG.2 points
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Racing Chat - Saturday 28th September
Brahmin reacted to richard-westwood for a topic
Just rated the race with the par class system Par for class is 196 so that omits around 9 horses ....but as you'd expect for such a classy race the other 25 all qualify !! Currently after rating I have a shortlist of 5 Liberty lane 220 214 434 Bopedro 207 224 431 ROI de France 200 225 425 Teumessias fox 212 212 424 Belmacara 208 211 419 Silver fox. 198 216 414 Quite a big rating range 434 to 414 at bottom with all other runners below this so from a ratings perspective these look the six to concentrate on .......I'll have a look at the trends to see if anything jumps out .......final decs tomorrow night help us any are non runners too1 point -
Racing Chat - Friday 27th September
azzybear reacted to The Brigadier for a topic
Newmarket 1.50 Seven run in the opener of the three day Cambridgeshire meeting at Newmarket on the Rowley Mile course. There’s plenty of rain around and I fully expect the ground to be on the easy side for day one and the listed Rosemary Stakes for fillies and mares run over a mile. Best in at the weights here is Jane Chapple-Hyam’s Rolica who is 3lb better off with the penalised Spiritual on their Sandown form in July for 2L. There shouldn’t be much between them but preference is for the Ryan Moore ridden David Menuisier trained Sirona who has plenty of form with soft in the description and only went down by a short neck in a listed contest at Longchamp at the beginning of the month. A reproduction of that effort should put her right in the mix here and she’s the selection. SIRONA 1 point win @ 10/3 BetVictor Newmarket 2.25 A field of eight have declared for the 1M 4F Group 3 Princess Royal Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Stakes for fillies and mares. Best in at the weights is the Harry Charlton trained Time Lock who always runs well on the Rowley Mile course here with form figures of 112 with one of the wins coming in this very race a year ago when coasting home by 4 1/4L. That win was gained on fast ground by the Juddmonte owned five-year-old mare who has also got soft ground form and with Oisin Murphy booked looks the one to be with here with the easy ground likely to be against the likes of Divina Grace and Mistral Star who have both been pulled out twice in their careers when the ground was too soft. TIME LOCK 1 point win @ 9/4 bet365 Newmarket 3.00 The 7F Group 2 Rockfel Stakes is next up for two-year-old fillies and we have a very warm favourite in the shape of the Sir Michael Stoute trained Formal who’s looked smart on her two victories so far. Impressive on her debut on good to firm ground she showed she can handle easier conditions when again hosing up on officially soft ground at Leicester 47 days later, landing the odds laid on her by a comfortable 2 1/2L. With Ryan Moore required for Aidan O’Brien’s Ecstatic William Buick comes in for the ride. Best of the two O’Brien fillies may well be the aforementioned Ecstatic who lost any real chance she had when sitting down in the stalls as they opened in the Group 2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster and finishing fifth (of 9) beaten 4 1/4l. She’s better than that. With Sir Michael retiring at the end of the season it would be great to see his smart filly Formal win this and I fully expect her to. FORMAL 1 point win @ 6/4 bet365 Newmarket 3.35 The Group 2 1M Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Joel Stakes has attracted just six runners and with just 4lb officially covering the sextet has an open look about it. Ease in the ground is not ideal for the John & Thady Gosden runner Lead Artist who was pulled out at Goodwood recently on account of the soft ground. The same owners Task Force has yet to encounter easy ground whilst it can’t be softer enough for recent Group 2 Goodwood winner Ice Max who had the re-opposing Poker Face 1L back in second place and now 5lb better off as the former has to shoulder a 3lb penalty today. The horse that I am attracted to however is the current outsider of the field in the Roger Teal trained Dancing Gemini. Easily his best run this year came on soft ground over a mile, the same conditions as today’s when going down by just half a length in second place to Metropolitan in the French 2000 Guineas back in May. He may not have stayed when 6th in the Epsom Derby and the Coral Eclipse over 1M 4F and 1M 2F respectively and possibly found the ground against him when fifth to Lead Artist at Goodwood in the Thoroughbred Stakes. Back on his favoured ground and trip and with Tom Marquand in the plate for the first time he looks a value bet. DANCING GEMINI 1 point win @ 7/1 bet3651 point -
Yeah, I would do if it was real solid players down there. Like for example a Dobey, Searle, etc but DVD is just all over the place at the moment. He can’t string two good results together. Gilding though, I think he could potentially make the QF on a great weekend. He could beat Cross and Rock. I just can’t see him getting through Humphries/Littler. You’ve made me think about a little outsider E/W cover bet on old Gilding now. 150/11 point
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European Tour
Fader reacted to ThunderDan9 for a topic
It'a true. Dirk needed the results in the PC's too, though - and he failed.😐1 point -
Racing chat- Thurs 26th sept
Brahmin reacted to richard-westwood for a topic
505 newm class 164 Repertoire. 175 174 349 Stockpile 166 164 330 Bajan bandit 170 163 333 Mr baloo 168 159 227 Amsterdam 167 151 318 Heronymous 170 170 340 Classic encounter 170 165 335 Island bandit 164 160 324 Where's Freddie 153 168 321 Drink dry 158 161 319 Pressures on 161 162 323 Terries royal 154 170 324 Desperate Dan 143 136 279 Lake teo 145 151 296 BOttom 6 don't make the grade which helps .....top 3 are heronymous ...repertoire and classic encounter .....heronymous is very much a fast ground horse so with ground good sft with more rain possibly I'll oppose that one ...the other two can arguably go on good so 5pt each classic encounter 6/1 and repertoire 18/11 point -
Racing chat- Thurs 26th sept
MCLARKE reacted to EviL ZippY for a topic
wants just a little bit further I reckon1 point -
Racing Chat - Saturday 28th September
Wildgarden reacted to richard-westwood for a topic
34 runners ...jeez ...it's anyone's !!!.....bopedro failed on age (8)...and recent topspeed (64)....but he was rated top 4 overall1 point -
NFL Week 4 Bets
MinellaWorksop reacted to PercyP for a topic
Week Four NFL Predictions (1) Bengals to win ATS -4.5 points @ 10/11 The Bengals are 0-3 and let me down last week. This week I can’t see how the Benegals will fail to beat the Panthers. I can see a ten point victory (if not more) for the Bengals in this must win game. (2) Bears to win ATS -3.0 points @ 10/11 Another team which let me down in week 3 was the Bears. However I saw some progress. At home the Bears are much better and I see them defeating a depleted Rams team. (3) Eagles to win ATS -2.0 points at 10/11 The Eagles defence stopped the Saints bandwagon in its tracks last week. Saquon Barkley should have a good weekend. (4) Steelers to win ATS -1.5 points @ 10/11 The Steelers will be all over Anthony Richardson who is prone to a lot of mistakes. The Steelers run offence should also be successful against the Colts who have the worst run defence in the NFL. (5) Cardinals to win ATS -3.5 points @ Evens Kyler Murray has a lot of players to throw to. Contrast that to rookie Jayden Daniels for Washington. Washington is also travelling across country. YTD P15 W5 D1 L9 Staked 90 pts, returned 3.73 pts = loss of 86.27 pts. Bet: 10 x 1 point trebles 5 x 3 point 4 timers 5 point accumulator 30 points staked All prices Bet3651 point -
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£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome
Wildgarden reacted to MCLARKE for a topic
Southwell 6.00 FRAM CASTLE £20 win BSP1 point -
Naps - Thursday 26th September
Wildgarden reacted to adamross for a topic
1 pt win Rogue De Vega 10/1 William Hill 8.00 Southwell1 point -
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Tennis Tips - September 22 - September 28
Torque reacted to CzechPunter for a topic
Yes, Watson was really bad indeed. Two veterans slugging it out, low quality match. Worked out well!1 point -
£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome
Wildgarden reacted to Nigwilliam for a topic
Ponte 523 Broken Spear 16/1 £10 ew skybet 4pl. Meet Abd.1 point -
Naps - Thursday 26th September
LordMulberry reacted to Quartu SE for a topic
Olympus Point 1410 hrs Nmk 15/8 B3651 point -
SPEED RATINGS
In Play Race Reader reacted to Zilzalian for a topic
years ago you didn't have all this sunshine taking out the obstacles 😂 and years ago you had fixed distances now we have flexi rails that are constantly moved in and out (often not reported). nothing seems to be constant in nh racing, even the going is variable over say 3 miles but you rarely read "first mile soft, last mile soft to heavy".1 point -
£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome
Nigwilliam reacted to silver fox for a topic
2.45 Newmarket: Sophia`s Starlight @ 7/1 (WHill)1 point -
Midweek Football Bets > 24th - 26th September
CraigH1988 reacted to harry_rag for a topic
A nice bit of good fortune with the 2 scorers landing in the same game and having the freebie to use. Nothing else later on but 3 in the earlier games (2 posted in the anytime system thread). Nice bit of cosmic ordering for a change in fortune after last night!1 point -
Racing Chat - Saturday 28th September
The Equaliser reacted to In Play Race Reader for a topic
High draw usually a big advantage1 point -
I wonder if maybe there is an edge in speed ratings over Jumps in that I expect not many people do it or take much notice of the speed ratings in the Racing Post Because it doesn't look as relevant over much longer distances where the pace is often very slow or variable from race to race If you could come up with figures which compare performances on different tracks and aren't rendered meaningless by the pace of bulk of the distance run being the main determinant of the final time ......... well, you could be sitting on a goldmine that very few other people have Of course it doesn't take much imagination to start thinking of lots of difficulties. For a start you might only have 3 chases on a card ....... very small sample for producing a reasonable going allowance !1 point
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Tennis Tips - September 22 - September 28
Do rade reacted to CzechPunter for a topic
Mananchaya Sawangkaew to beat Zarina Diyas at 1.90 with Bet365 Backing Sawangkaew to get her first win over Diyas. The conditions are better for her bigger hitting here, Diyas looked a bit sluggish against Watson, and she's slowly aging away, while Sawangkaew has a decent future ahead of herself.1 point -
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Midweek Football Bets > 24th - 26th September
MinellaWorksop reacted to harry_rag for a topic
Gakpo 43/20 and Jota 33/20 both look a little generous to me. Played the singles and used a BB freebie on the 8/1 double. Hopefully tonight follows the script a bit more than last night in terms of the players who "should" score doing so!1 point -
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Racing chat- weds 25th sept
Bang on reacted to richard-westwood for a topic
Disappointed 2nd ...but top 4 have finished 1st 2nd 4th ...beaten in a photo1 point -
Racing chat- weds 25th sept
Bang on reacted to richard-westwood for a topic
Rhos first ....thunder 2nd ...Naxos third ....I said they were the only ones in this class 😁1 point -
BILLY HILLS NAP TABLE - September 2024
MinellaWorksop reacted to MCLARKE for a topic
1 point -
20 pt win treble Crewe (1) 1.85 Barrow (1) 1.50 Birmingham (2) 2.101 point
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Aston Villa (1) @ 1.60 Wrexham (1) @ 1.50 Mansfield (1) @ 1.73 10pts treble1 point
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Division 2 - Week 4 Selections
avongirl reacted to glavintoby for a topic
Huddersfield 1.40 Wrexham @ 1.50 Chesterfield 1.50 already kicked off.Notts County @ 2.00 please 20 treble Sorry1 point -
Division 1 - Week 4 Selections
avongirl reacted to blackfritz for a topic
Chelsea (2) 2.05 Man City (X) 3.50 10 pt double please1 point -
Liverpool to win @1.30 16pts single1 point
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Division 2 - Week 4 Selections
avongirl reacted to Jediknight for a topic
Southampton Vs Ipswich (x) 3.60 £101 point -
Sheff Utd (1) @ 1.60 Preston (x) @ 3.25 Barrow (1) @ 1.50 £10 Treble please1 point
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Werder Bremen - Bayern Munich (Over 2.5) @1.40 Leverkusen - Wolfsburg (Over 2.5) @1.50 Villareal - Barcelona (Over 2.5) @1.40 15 points treble1 point
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West Brom (1) 1.44 Burnley (1) 1.50 Mansfield (1) 1.73 £15 treble please1 point