MCLARKE Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 Trends for the International Stakes (Ascot 3.00) Not in the top 10 in the weights, 2 from 102 Not in the top 3 in the betting, 3 from 143 This leaves JUMBY and DARK SHIFT Bred in UK, 4 from 72, AE 1.09 This leaves DARK SHIFT at 4/1, 6 places alexcaruso808 and The Equaliser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 (edited) Isn't it strange, I have Pyledriver as the top in my ratings, but it's the worst backed horse according to the markets. I really think I need to revise what I'm looking at. In any case, I'm backing Mishriff with my free £5 bet. Edited July 23, 2022 by alexcaruso808 Nigwilliam, The Equaliser, justice and 1 other 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 3.00 Ascot I like these big 7 furlong handicaps in the straight track at Ascot ...... and I got a system ! Well, not really a system ..... but look for horses drawn high, who have won over a mile, are still young (maybe 4 or 5) and from a big yard and have course form or Kempton form ...... King Zain - 12/1 bet365 - won at Kempton last time out, has won over a mile, from the Charlton yard, drawn in 21 Zilzalian, Bronxie, alexcaruso808 and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 5.20 Ascot - Carazon - win at 6/1 Paddy Power was a group race 2yo last season and appears to have trained on based on seasonal debut where he was beaten 4 lengths in a similar CD handicap three of the horses that beat him turn up again today so I'm depending on him coming on a lot for the run and needing that race to 'blow away the cobwebs' as they say alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, MCLARKE said: What's stout Grandad ? ! Stop pretending your of the lager generation. ? Edited July 23, 2022 by Zilzalian alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 57 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said: Isn't it strange, I have Pyledriver as the top in my ratings, but it's the worst backed horse according to the markets. I really think I need to revise what I'm looking at. In any case, I'm backing Mishriff with my free £5 bet. Reckon Pyledriver is the value myself its always underrated Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Zilzalian said: Reckon Pyledriver is the value myself its always underrated I've put a small bet on Pyledriver. We'll see what happens. The Equaliser and Zilzalian 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 3 hours ago, The Equaliser said: I don't like ew betting but at the prices I feel that @richard-westwood is being greedy in going for win bets at the prices. It looks like a dark shift from the norm to me. I do wish him all the best and hope he collects on both his races Greedy? he gave you a perfectly good reason for why he goes win only, being greedy is better than being whimpy in my book its not like he bets in 100's which is a different scenario. alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bang on Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 4.25 York - Fox Vardy - 5/1 - Dropping down the weights and becoming well handicapped, and trainer Ralph Beckett is in good form ( 6 wins, 7 places from 24 runners). steps up to 2 miles for the 1st time and this son of Frankel should go very close. 4.52 Nmkt - Manettino - 4/1 - Another dropping down the weights, has dropped a stone in just 6 runs. Drops down to a class 5 from the class 4 he ran on thursday, and wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see a much better run, will surely be winning soon. alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 23 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 240 york Gale force maya 8.6 7/1 Hyperfocus 8.2 19.5 Aberama gold 8.2 10/1 These 3 are a little clear of rest so at decent prices I'll try 3x 10pt wins top 3 Gale force wins .....and because I went wins I'm guaranteed to finish +20.00 on day regardless of 3.00 result ....?? Tedthewolf, alexcaruso808, Bedlam and 4 others 4 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 1 minute ago, richard-westwood said: Gale force wins .....and because I went wins I'm guaranteed to finish +20.00 on day regardless of 3.00 result ....?? I'm with you 100% EW is pitiful when you have a good day. like i have said elsewhere if you were backing large stakes maybe ew is a consideration in my book 16/1 or greater but even then i have to grit my teeth and more often than not i say sod it all or nothing. richard-westwood, alexcaruso808 and yossa6133 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 Can anyone remember an arc winner being available at 12/1 before in a subsequent race? yes i get the ground angle but still thats a big price by any measure last night i thought when i saw 7/1 was a big price so im putting it in the forecast with pyledriver. i'll take the loss all day long at those prices. kroni, Alley Cat Glover, BBBC and 1 other 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 (edited) On 7/22/2022 at 2:48 PM, richard-westwood said: 3.00 ascot Jumby 8.8 8.4 Bless him 8.7 14.5 Chief of chiefs 8.5 13.5 Accidentally agent 8.0 25/1 Air to air 7.9 7/1 As you'd expect a very very difficult cavalry charge but top 3 are big prices on betfair so let's have a,shot at a decent payout Accidental agent could outrun his big price ...looks overpriced 10pt wins top 3 rated 2nd ...almost a bumper day ?..finished +20.00 on day ... Edited July 23, 2022 by richard-westwood The Equaliser, alexcaruso808, Wildgarden and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 Following on from the ew debate if you look at King Zain (i and a few others on here backed it at 16/1) in the 3:00 ascot getting beat if you believed all the noise and commentaters and the betting you would have bet serious ew money and returned exactly the same as the win bet which was £000.00 richard-westwood, alexcaruso808 and Bang on 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 2 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said: Isn't it strange, I have Pyledriver as the top in my ratings, but it's the worst backed horse according to the markets. I really think I need to revise what I'm looking at. In any case, I'm backing Mishriff with my free £5 bet. Told yous that Pyledriver would win! ?? justanotherpunter, Bronxie, Bedlam and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 41 minutes ago, Zilzalian said: Can anyone remember an arc winner being available at 12/1 before in a subsequent race? yes i get the ground angle but still thats a big price by any measure last night i thought when i saw 7/1 was a big price so im putting it in the forecast with pyledriver. i'll take the loss all day long at those prices. Filled my Fookin boots only Zilzalian gives you monster 216/1 forecasts Bedlam, Bang on, richard-westwood and 12 others 9 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronxie Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 Just now, Zilzalian said: Filled my Fookin boots only Zilzalian gives you monster 216/1 forecasts So glad I read your post - sounded worth £1. Thank you! Time to trust your ratings @alexcaruso808 ? Bang on and alexcaruso808 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Zilzalian said: Filled my Fookin boots only Zilzalian gives you monster 216/1 forecasts Fair play to you alexcaruso808 and Bedlam 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Bronxie said: So glad I read your post - sounded worth £1. Thank you! Time to trust your ratings @alexcaruso808 ? thank you, and I'm glad that you were following and won something. Bronxie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brigadier Posted July 23, 2022 Author Share Posted July 23, 2022 On 7/22/2022 at 2:48 PM, richard-westwood said: 3.00 ascot Jumby 8.8 8.4 Bless him 8.7 14.5 Chief of chiefs 8.5 13.5 Accidentally agent 8.0 25/1 Air to air 7.9 7/1 As you'd expect a very very difficult cavalry charge but top 3 are big prices on betfair so let's have a,shot at a decent payout Accidental agent could outrun his big price ...looks overpriced 10pt wins top 3 rated A small loss of under a point today with a nice 7/1 winner tipped. Nice to see the underdog win the big one. black rabbit, alexcaruso808 and richard-westwood 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 Hero to zero i was waiting on Power of Darkness 4:45 Ascot for 2 x huge L15 payouts. Jockey pulled its head off, i just cant understand why they dont just let them go because pulling its head off usually reslts in plumb last like this did, how odd that it ran a screamer LTO to get 3rd in a class 3 hcap but took a walk in the betting in this race. I know, i know, im talking thru my pocket but at least if a horse is going to get beat at least give it a chance ffs. richard-westwood, The Equaliser, alexcaruso808 and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 15 hours ago, Tedthewolf said: 2.05 york-SOUL SEEKER 14/1 2.40 york MUSIC SOCIETY 16/1 3.00 Ascot ROPEY GUEST 16/1 5.20 Ascot HURRICANE IVOR 12/1 All 4 e/w singles and a e/w L15 bog 3.00 Ascot RHOSCOLYN 25/1 e/w bog 6places Only Tedthewolf can give 5 horses each way and get none of them placed ? BBBC, Bronxie, Bedlam and 5 others 1 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fd1972uk Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 Decent profit, oscula getting pipped on line woulda brought an even better return. alexcaruso808 and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 6 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Gale force wins .....and because I went wins I'm guaranteed to finish +20.00 on day regardless of 3.00 result ....?? Yes. Very well done. I should have at least had half a point on Gale Force Maya because of Michael Dodds good record at the track. Got myself confused with all the racing going on today From a punter's point of view, I feel that an each-way bet when one is backing more than one horse in a single race may appeal more because he/she can possibly collect on all three bets. I don't know the maths, perhaps @MCLARKE has stats or @Valiant Thor. I do remember the shocking number of permutations of getting 3 horses coming in the first 3 places in races where there are a lot of runners. I also remember the old adage that rather than back a horse each way it is better to back two horses to win. On a different note, since you do not seem to know which of your selections is more likely to win your chosen race it could pay to re-arrange your stakes so that you make the same amount of profit no matter which horse wins the race. For example in the 2.40 race at York instead of having 10 points to win on each of your selections had you placed 14.03 pts on the 7/1 shot 5.76 pts on the 19.5 shot and 10.21 pts on the 10/1 shot (= 30 points) you would have made 82 points profit no matter which horse won the race. Just a thought and only trying to help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, The Equaliser said: From a punter's point of view, I feel that an each-way bet when one is backing more than one horse in a single race may appeal more because he/she can possibly collect on all three bets. I don't know the maths, perhaps @MCLARKE has stats or @Valiant Thor. No particular logic in that but plenty of logic backing each way when 7 places are available in a 21 runner race. The Equaliser and Zilzalian 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 ew offers security to get some.money bk instead of long potential losing streaks Tedthewolf, The Equaliser and MCLARKE 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 8 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said: Isn't it strange, I have Pyledriver as the top in my ratings, but it's the worst backed horse according to the markets. I really think I need to revise what I'm looking at. In any case, I'm backing Mishriff with my free £5 bet. Twas a free bet.............................................5X25 125.00 dabs my friend the price talked you out of it. Rubbing it in ?? alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 25 minutes ago, The Equaliser said: Yes. Very well done. I should have at least had half a point on Gale Force Maya because of Michael Dodds good record at the track. Got myself confused with all the racing going on today From a punter's point of view, I feel that an each-way bet when one is backing more than one horse in a single race may appeal more because he/she can possibly collect on all three bets. I don't know the maths, perhaps @MCLARKE has stats or @Valiant Thor. I do remember the shocking number of permutations of getting 3 horses coming in the first 3 places in races where there are a lot of runners. I also remember the old adage that rather than back a horse each way it is better to back two horses to win. On a different note, since you do not seem to know which of your selections is more likely to win your chosen race it could pay to re-arrange your stakes so that you make the same amount of profit no matter which horse wins the race. For example in the 2.40 race at York instead of having 10 points to win on each of your selections had you placed 14.03 pts on the 7/1 shot 5.76 pts on the 19.5 shot and 10.21 pts on the 10/1 shot (= 30 points) you would have made 82 points profit no matter which horse won the race. Just a thought and only trying to help. Can't argue with an ew bet ....the chances of 1 or 2 of my top rated placing is very probable and one of the other members follows my tips rigidly with ew bets on top 3 4 or even 5 sometimes depending on places and they got more back than me today ??....I mean its the stewards cup next Sat I think .. probably 28 30 runners so in that case an ew bet seems sensible ......the bet today was geared towards Gale force maya being the only winner the overall bet woukd make a profit and that's exactly how it played out so sometimes I'm looking at the big picture to make even a small profit if x y z win etc ....but like I said ...someone backs them ew all the time and has loads of returns so there's no wrong answer but ....sometimes I get huge wins and they get half . ....that's the only diff ....and I like big wins lol Zilzalian, vikki37, The Equaliser and 1 other 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 (edited) 56 minutes ago, The Equaliser said: Yes. Very well done. I should have at least had half a point on Gale Force Maya because of Michael Dodds good record at the track. Got myself confused with all the racing going on today From a punter's point of view, I feel that an each-way bet when one is backing more than one horse in a single race may appeal more because he/she can possibly collect on all three bets. I don't know the maths, perhaps @MCLARKE has stats or @Valiant Thor. I do remember the shocking number of permutations of getting 3 horses coming in the first 3 places in races where there are a lot of runners. I also remember the old adage that rather than back a horse each way it is better to back two horses to win. On a different note, since you do not seem to know which of your selections is more likely to win your chosen race it could pay to re-arrange your stakes so that you make the same amount of profit no matter which horse wins the race. For example in the 2.40 race at York instead of having 10 points to win on each of your selections had you placed 14.03 pts on the 7/1 shot 5.76 pts on the 19.5 shot and 10.21 pts on the 10/1 shot (= 30 points) you would have made 82 points profit no matter which horse won the race. Just a thought and only trying to help. Actually ....I think your right to be fair ....I always keep an open mind and I know my fellow punter made more money than me today so let's,see what happened.... 240 Win 7/1 4th 16/1 5th 8/1 All bets returned with sky bet 3.00 2nd 14/1 7th 20/1 Both bets returned with sky So instead of 1 win yiu get 1,win and 5 place bets .....so ? ...ew betting gives you much more chance of return but you also need the extra place with sky or other because it really makes a diff .......that happens a lot where 2 or 3 will place top 5 or 6 ...so that really does seem the better strategy.... back ew with sky or most places you can get Today 5pt ew lets say for arguments,sake 1/4 odds ....woukd have returned approx 140 -60= +80.00 .....can't argue with that !! Ew bets it is from now on Edited July 23, 2022 by richard-westwood Wildgarden, The Equaliser, MCLARKE and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 42 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Actually ....I think your right to be fair ....I always keep an open mind and I know my fellow punter made more money than me today so let's,see what happened.... 240 Win 7/1 4th 16/1 5th 8/1 All bets returned with sky bet 3.00 2nd 14/1 7th 20/1 Both bets returned with sky So instead of 1 win yiu get 1,win and 5 place bets .....so ? ...ew betting gives you much more chance of return but you also need the extra place with sky or other because it really makes a diff .......that happens a lot where 2 or 3 will place top 5 or 6 ...so that really does seem the better strategy.... back ew with sky or most places you can get Today 5pt ew lets say for arguments,sake 1/4 odds ....woukd have returned approx 140 -60= +80.00 .....can't argue with that !! Ew bets it is from now on Half a stout in the snug for you now my friend. ?? Pssst stick with your FC & TC to small stakes as well. richard-westwood and Tedthewolf 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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