Tennis Tips - April 11 - April 17

[raduvlad1995]

oh wow today was just freacking terrible...same story every year , hard courts I make alot of money, clay comes and I ruin everything... I just don t know how to bet on claycourt matches untill atleast Roland Garros comes around..

[CzechPunter]

Sebastian Korda to beat Taylor Fritz at 1.79 with Unibet

Even with potential fatigue for Korda, I can't see how you can make a case for Fritz here. Catarina could've beaten him, Cilic should've beaten him, hopefully Korda will beat him.

[AgaRadwanska]

2 hours ago, raduvlad1995 said:

oh wow today was just freacking terrible...same story every year , hard courts I make alot of money, clay comes and I ruin everything... I just don t know how to bet on claycourt matches untill atleast Roland Garros comes around..

welcome to clay season. what, you didn't foresee Foki beating Novak? ?

Edited April 13, 2022 by AgaRadwanska

[AgaRadwanska]

49 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Sebastian Korda to beat Taylor Fritz at 1.79 with Unibet

Even with potential fatigue for Korda, I can't see how you can make a case for Fritz here. Catarina could've beaten him, Cilic should've beaten him, hopefully Korda will beat him.

I really like Fritz as a bloke but please can he just lose already. Catarina was 2 service holds (or a hold and a break - and he had broken Fritz A LOT) away from dumping him out before he crumbled

 

[Grass Cash]

4 hours ago, AgaRadwanska said:

welcome to clay season. what, you didn't foresee Foki beating Novak? ?

I had a feeling Novak would lose.. I love to bet against him in Monte Carlo. I had bet Jiri Vesely to beat him here in 2016 at around 18/1 in his opener.  Davidovich looked great in the first round, but I avoided the match like the plague for my own superstitious reasons, and was disgusted when I saw the result. 

[Grass Cash]

@CzechPunter@darko08 @four-leaf@opole@Torque@raduvlad1995can you hit us with another pick for todays card? Definitely going to be a few dogs hitting somewhere.  I've been on the Goffin train since Marrakech, and missed a few punts on him. I'm worried it's arriving at the station today.. Feels like the match could go either way, and the better price is with the Spaniard. I really couldn't say who will win but I'm sure it will be a fun match, and my mind won't let me take Goffin anymore, but the problem is I have a history of losing Davidovich Fokina, or watching careless tennis from him.. He seems very motivated this time though, and its probably unlikely to see alot of that today.  The more people we can get making punts in here the better.. I'd love to see some analysis also from new guys.

Edited April 14, 2022 by money44

[CzechPunter]

I'm not interested in anything else betting-wise, really.

[Grass Cash]

Djere to beat Tsitsipas @+600 - Ridiculous price for a competent clay court player in form and confident. Stefanos has had too many letdowns in the past, and his bright future might have to wait a year or two. If those goes to a dog fight, then I'm gonna trust Laslo's consistency on the backhand wing and mental fortitude more.  I've made alot of betting mistakes in the past, but win or lose this won't be one of them. I've had success betting Djere in the past on clay, and expect this to be no different.  Disrespectful line to the Serbian.. I think he gets alot of balls back returning, and the match plays out extremely close. You would only need to win 14% of your bets at these odds to break even.. I would say there's atleast an 11% advantage, and I'm giving Djere 25% chance or more. I've already placed this straight, and parlayed hours ago. 

[raduvlad1995]

8 hours ago, AgaRadwanska said:

welcome to clay season. what, you didn't foresee Foki beating Novak? ?

nah I didn t bet anything on that, alcaraz loosing to korda did me dirty and bublik almost beating busta is also amazing to me..

[raduvlad1995]

11 minutes ago, money44 said:

Djere to beat Tsitsipas @+600 - Ridiculous price for a competent clay court player in form and confident. Stefanos has had too many letdowns in the past, and his bright future might have to wait a year or two. If those goes to a dog fight, then I'm gonna trust Laslo's consistency on the backhand wing and mental fortitude more.  I've made alot of betting mistakes in the past, but win or lose this won't be one of them. I've had success betting Djere in the past on clay, and expect this to be no different.  Disrespectful line to the Serbian.. I think he gets alot of balls back returning, and the match plays out extremely close. You would only need to win 14% of your bets at these odds to break even.. I would say there's atleast an 11% advantage, and I'm giving Djere 25% chance or more. I've already placed this straight, and parlayed hours ago. 

went with tsitsipas on this one since I needed him for an acumulator bet, but you definetly had a great prediction yesterday with korda beating alcaraz so who knows. You re very corect that djere is competent on clay , but tistsipas has a masters to defend and this is his best surface so I believe he ll pull through in the end.

[raduvlad1995]

1 hour ago, money44 said:

@CzechPunter@darko08 @four-leaf@opole@Torque@raduvlad1995can you hit us with another pick for todays card? Definitely going to be a few dogs hitting somewhere.  I've been on the Goffin train since Marrakech, and missed a few punts on him. I'm worried it's arriving at the station today.. Feels like the match could go either way, and the better price is with the Spaniard. I really couldn't say who will win but I'm sure it will be a fun match, and my mind won't let me take Goffin anymore, but the problem is I have a history of losing Davidovich Fokina, or watching careless tennis from him.. He seems very motivated this time though, and its probably unlikely to see alot of that today.  The more people we can get making punts in here the better.. I'd love to see some analysis also from new guys.

went with fokina to take a set against goffin, to me last year it seemed that fokina is the new goffin, and I still believe that since their styles are very similar IMO(with fokina having bigger weapons though).If alejandro is pumped which  definetly seems to be the case , there s no reason for him not to win against goffin, he s just as fast, he hits harder and I think he's also more creative than the belgian. I'd take ruud to beat dimitrov also even though he seems to be overrated by the bookies IMO, but he s just so solid from the baseline and definetly more comfortable on clay than grigor.

Edited April 14, 2022 by raduvlad1995

[CzechPunter]

Seems like Korda is coming back to Earth after beating Alcaraz unfortunately. What a tournament lol.

[Torque]

Carreno Busta to beat Sascha would be my underdog bet today. PCB has such a consistent and steady level and Sascha wasn't convincing against Delbonis and isn't in great form.

[Foo_Fighter]

30 minutes ago, Torque said:

Carreno Busta to beat Sascha would be my underdog bet today. PCB has such a consistent and steady level and Sascha wasn't convincing against Delbonis and isn't in great form.

H2H is 3-0 in Sascha's favour though. Indicates another win for the German. 

[Torque]

Just now, Foo_Fighter said:

H2H is 3-0 in Sascha's favour though. Indicates another win for the German. 

True. I'm not sure but I'd guess he was in better form ahead of those 3 wins though.

[Foo_Fighter]

6 minutes ago, Torque said:

True. I'm not sure but I'd guess he was in better form ahead of those 3 wins though.

Yeah but I mean, a player who's in bad form for an extended period of time isn't necessarily doomed to remain in this bad form. Also, let's not forget that this is a very prestigious and glamorous Masters 1000 event. I feel pretty sure that Tsitsipas and Zverev are cruising past Djere and Carreno Busta respectively today. Let's see what happens.

[Torque]

32 minutes ago, Foo_Fighter said:

Yeah but I mean, a player who's in bad form for an extended period of time isn't necessarily doomed to remain in this bad form. Also, let's not forget that this is a very prestigious and glamorous Masters 1000 event. I feel pretty sure that Tsitsipas and Zverev are cruising past Djere and Carreno Busta respectively today. Let's see what happens.

Also true. However, it's classic Gambler's Fallacy to say that a player's form is bound to turn. It may well do, but I've always felt that good or bad form is more likely to continue rather than change, even though it is inevitable at some point that it will change. To illustrate further, I'd rather back a player in form or oppose a player in bad form than back a player in bad form or oppose one in good on the basis that their form has to change.

[CzechPunter]

Dimitrov delivers, who would've expected that against Ruud. Seems that no matter how many times we write him off, he always finds a way to produce a big shock out of nowhere.

[Torque]

13 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Dimitrov delivers, who would've expected that against Ruud. Seems that no matter how many times we write him off, he always finds a way to produce a big shock out of nowhere.

Really inconsistent these days. I tend to just avoid him now as you never really know what you're going to get.

[CzechPunter]

Angelique Kerber to beat Yulia Putintseva at 1.70 with Pinnacle

Well, Kerber is hardly the greatest around, but she's been performing steadily in the few matches so far. With Putintseva, meanwhile, I've been largely disappointed throughout the season. She seems to be slower than before and that's a huge concern given that her game is basically all about running and returning everything back with a few counter-punches. She's not as reliable in this before and, on that evidence, I think Kerber is slight value at 1.70. I'd have her at 1.57.

[Simeon Borisof]

59 minutes ago, Torque said:

Really inconsistent these days. I tend to just avoid him now as you never really know what you're going to get.

That is true only if by ,, these days,, you mean the last 15 years... 

[Torque]

Yeah I suppose he's always been inconsistent.

[DrO]

I'm sorry @Simeon Borisof..i only laugh because your statement is so true

[raduvlad1995]

I fuly expect to get screwed by grigor today when I finaly decide to back him up against hurkacz, even though he should probably beat the pole on clay if he was able to beat ruud prety easily...what do you guys see from today's matches ?

[KennyDelight]

Martincova to beat Raducanu seems simple enough? Am I missing something but Raducanu has very little clay experience. The match is a Billie Jean (Fed) Cup tie in front of a traditionally passionate Czech crowd. Raducanu's record this year is average even from being a set up

[raduvlad1995]

went with fokina to win and sinner to take a set from zverev. Normaly I see no reason why fokina shouldn t be able to expose with his skillset fritz's movement and the fact that fritz's serve ain t that big of a weapon on clay, but who knows in monte carlo. With sinner I was impresed by his hitting against rublev , I could see zverev straight setting him since he has a big serve and sinner doesn't but I went with my gut felling that jannick will push alexander prety hard.

[raduvlad1995]

fritz might aswell win the tourney , he's playing freacking unreal tennis

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, Fritz is unreal in terms of what he's accomplished. After that Catarina match!

[raduvlad1995]

what an amazing match..for as annoying clay is for bettors, matches wise I believe it's easily the most entertaining surface

[Torque]

3 hours ago, KennyDelight said:

Martincova to beat Raducanu seems simple enough? Am I missing something but Raducanu has very little clay experience. The match is a Billie Jean (Fed) Cup tie in front of a traditionally passionate Czech crowd. Raducanu's record this year is average even from being a set up

A word of warning here @KennyDelight A lot of players really step up when representing their country and do things that are completely unexpected. A few years back Norrie played Bautista Agut on Spanish clay in Davis Cup having - IIRC - never played a tour match on clay. He promptly went two sets down before coming back to win in five sets. Needless to say 1.01 was completely busted.