Tennis Tips - April 11 - April 17

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Monte Carlo Masters and then BJK Cup qualifiers!

[CzechPunter]

Roberto Bautista Agut to beat Daniel Evans at 1.50 with Pinnacle

Evans produced a huge run in Monte Carlo last year, beating Djokovic and Goffin before folding rather tamely against Tsistipas, but I don't see him following that up this time around. He was awful against Andujar in Marrakech and hasn't been in any great form recently overall. RBA has been plugging away at it nicely and hasn't done much wrong except folding against Brooksby in a horrible manner in the decider. Still, I'd have him at around 1.30 given the conditions.

[DrO]

3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Roberto Bautista Agut to beat Daniel Evans

 

[Torque]

One for me today and it's starting soon. Baez takes on Carreno Busta and I think he's got a good chance of getting the win. He's come through qualifying, although it has to be said not all that convincingly, and now he's facing a player in Carreno Busta who must be low on confidence right now. He's been struggling to get wins recently, even when winning the opening set of matches so even if he does get ahead in this one that doesn't mean he'll feel like he can get the job done in straights. It may be that this match comes a little too early for Baez, who I think has real potential on clay, but even so at this price he's the play for me.

20pts Baez to beat Carreno Busta @ 3.00 365

Edited April 11, 2022 by Torque

[CzechPunter]

I find it quite funny that Cressy is in the main draw of this. He's going to rack up some wins on clay at nice odds, though. Not sure if Djere is the right opponent and that Monte Carlo are the right conditions, but I'll be looking to back him at some point. 

[Torque]

3 hours ago, Torque said:

20pts Baez to beat Carreno Busta @ 3.00 365

Key point performance is so often the difference at the highest level. Baez didn't face a break point in the first set until he served to stay in it, and so of course that was when he got broken. He did well to take the second set, but then in the third after starting with a break he gives it straight back and then fails to convert 15-40 to go a break ahead again and after that he only won one more game. Carreno Busta saved 9 of 12 break points faced and took 5 of 6 break point opportunities compared to Baez who only saved 1 of 6 break points faced and only took 3 of 12 break point opportunities. As I said at the start, key point performance is so important in tennis.

[Simeon Borisof]

For tomorrow i definetely think that Lajovic-Dimitrov will see over 21.5 games@ 1.89 and Lajovic to take a set @ 1.69 with efbet. Lajovic is a real fighter and he showed that in the previous round against Krajinovic when he succeeded to make a comeback at 1:4 in the 2nd set. As i said before, Monte Carlo clay is Grigor's favourite clay tournament and he will no doubt give his best. Historically these two usually make tight games and i cannot see a clear favourite once again.

[darko08]

1 hour ago, Torque said:

Key point performance is so often the difference at the highest level. Baez didn't face a break point in the first set until he served to stay in it, and so of course that was when he got broken. He did well to take the second set, but then in the third after starting with a break he gives it straight back and then fails to convert 15-40 to go a break ahead again and after that he only won one more game. Carreno Busta saved 9 of 12 break points faced and took 5 of 6 break point opportunities compared to Baez who only saved 1 of 6 break points faced and only took 3 of 12 break point opportunities. As I said at the start, key point performance is so important in tennis.

The only way Baez could win this match was doing it quickly, in straight sets. PBC is better player than Baez, so much better. I don't care about the surface. The problem for Pablo was that it was his first match of the european clay season. I have seen a lot of Pablo and I know him quite well. He always struggle to win matches when he starts a new season. It's not easy for him to acclimate to a new surface... I know all players do but Pablo struggles more than the others players. That's the reason why Baez needed to win it quickly. After losing the first set his chances of winning the match were really low. It meant that he should play 2 more sets to win the match and that was a lot of time for Pablo to acclimate to the surface. In the third set the superiority of PBC over Baez was clear. He played more aggressive and Baez was barely winning points even when he was playing with first serves. I think he even was under 50% of points won with 1st serves, which is not good at all. Pablo was dominating almost every single point and taking the right choice, always. He played so much better with his serve and did more winners. He also gave to Baez a master class of how to drop shot.  He was already acclimated!

[Torque]

34 minutes ago, darko08 said:

The only way Baez could win this match was doing it quickly, in straight sets. PBC is better player than Baez, so much better. I don't care about the surface. The problem for Pablo was that it was his first match of the european clay season. I have seen a lot of Pablo and I know him quite well. He always struggle to win matches when he starts a new season. It's not easy for him to acclimate to a new surface... I know all players do but Pablo struggles more than the others players. That's the reason why Baez needed to win it quickly. After losing the first set his chances of winning the match were really low. It meant that he should play 2 more sets to win the match and that was a lot of time for Pablo to acclimate to the surface. In the third set the superiority of PBC over Baez was clear. He played more aggressive and Baez was barely winning points even when he was playing with first serves. I think he even was under 50% of points won with 1st serves, which is not good at all. Pablo was dominating almost every single point and taking the right choice, always. He played so much better with his serve and did more winners. He also gave to Baez a master class of how to drop shot.  He was already acclimated!

Agree. PCB was the better player no question.

[CzechPunter]

Emil Ruusuvuori to beat Oscar Otte at 1.70 with Pinnacle

Ruusuvuori was supposed to play Garin, so Otte will be a big step down from that hurdle and I think he'll take the opportunity. He was troubled by Cobolli in the qualifiers, but he produced a great comeback and I think that will only boost his chances here. He was around 2.30 to beat Garin and yet, he's 1.70 against Otte, which I simply have to take. Otte can sometimes trouble the big names, but his mental fortitude is questionable.

[raduvlad1995]

5 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Emil Ruusuvuori to beat Oscar Otte at 1.70 with Pinnacle

Ruusuvuori was supposed to play Garin, so Otte will be a big step down from that hurdle and I think he'll take the opportunity. He was troubled by Cobolli in the qualifiers, but he produced a great comeback and I think that will only boost his chances here. He was around 2.30 to beat Garin and yet, he's 1.70 against Otte, which I simply have to take. Otte can sometimes trouble the big names, but his mental fortitude is questionable.

also this is clay, haven t realyy watched ruusovori on clay but his game seems far more suited to clay than otte's.

[raduvlad1995]

went with tsitsipas and alcaraz to win their matches..tsitsipas seems to have grown in form lately and he feel great on clay, while fogna is extremely talented and also good on clay I just see tsitsipas as more reliable and stronger...carlito is just a beast at this point and clay is even more at home for him, korda is good but doesn t have anywhere near the same clay pedigree at all.

[Grass Cash]

Goffin to beat Jiri Lehecka 

Quick question here guys.. Is anyone betting on Goffin because it looks absolutely free? I don't understand the price.. Should be closer to -200 ? My book has taken down the line, and I'm waiting for some live betting line if they offer it. 

[Grass Cash]

2 minutes ago, money44 said:

Goffin to beat Jiri Lehecka 

Quick question here guys.. Is anyone betting on Goffin because it looks absolutely free? I don't understand the price.. Should be closer to -200 ? My book has taken down the line, and I'm waiting for some live betting line if they offer it. 

They put the line back at -145.. Don't understand this.. If Goffin loses this match it feels like a big surprise to me. There's also reverse line movement coming in if the Goffin price is improving. 

Edited April 12, 2022 by money44

[CzechPunter]

Well, that's factoring in that Goffin had a long week last week, playing the finals on Sunday. Lehecka has also made it through the qualifiers.

[Grass Cash]

@CzechPunter+all. Do you have any opinions on Emil Ruusuvuori's next match? Maybe this could be tough for Sinner dealing with foot blisters. I might try somehting safer, and punt Goffin again. I also picked Daniel Evans today, one was more impressive to me, but both players are in form.. So, this would be a bit of a risk.. There might be a difference in quality. 

Edited April 12, 2022 by money44

[CzechPunter]

Well, Sinner is actually Ruusuvuori's most recent loss! Was a tight match, Sinner is probably somewhat more comfortable on clay than the Finn though. The handicap is pretty high at +4.5, you don't see that all that often in high-profile matches and this one certainly is that. But then, there's a chance that he's physically unfit, so perhaps the higher odds offer a much better value. Just make sure to back him with a bookie that doesn't void retirements after the first set.

Emil Ruusuvuori to beat Jannik Sinner at 3.68 with Pinnacle

 

[Grass Cash]

I'm not sure my bookie's rules on the first set.. They changed the grading rules, and its confusing. Maybe Emil or Korda will take the match.. I am going to strongly consider this though.. The odds look funny.

[Grass Cash]

Durasovic to beat Mejia Live @ Mexico @ odds pk em around

I took +165, and estimating odds to get this in quick in case anyone sees.. 10 minutes ago the odds was +340 on Durasovic.. I figured half the value is good enough to try.

I have arbitraged the bet. not confident enough to ride it out, and will pull a profit on either side.. Don't recommend the play though

Edited April 12, 2022 by money44

[AgaRadwanska]

uhm, Cilic to beat Fritz.

If you are unsure why Cilic is odds on, then perhaps watch Fritz vs. Catarina. 

[raduvlad1995]

2 hours ago, AgaRadwanska said:

uhm, Cilic to beat Fritz.

If you are unsure why Cilic is odds on, then perhaps watch Fritz vs. Catarina. 

I have cilic to take one set atleast(didn t know who to take as outright winner between him and sonego and I took sonego),I also have musetti taking a set against alliassime and busta beating bublik. But yeah fritz strugling against such a mediocre player like catarina was prety telling

[Grass Cash]

Sebastian Korda to beat Carlos Alcaraz @+320 with William Hill

I tend to agree with Czech Punter that Emil Ruusuvori has a chance today, but considering that Korda has had more success on clay, a match under his belt, and Carlos first match on clay. Well, I think it will be a difficult transition for him, and he may be preparing for the Spanish tournaments such as Barcelona, Madrid, Rome, and Roland Garros. I like what I've seen from Korda. He hits a heavy ball, and could put alot of pressure on Carlos if he falls behind. I feel that Alcaraz has had an incredible amount of success on hard courts recently because is so solid from the back line, but if there is some doubts on clean ball striking today.. This match could be up for grabs to the other extremely high rated prospect.

[raduvlad1995]

11 minutes ago, money44 said:

Sebastian Korda to beat Carlos Alcaraz @+320 with William Hill

I tend to agree with Czech Punter that Emil Ruusuvori has a chance today, but considering that Korda has had more success on clay, a match under his belt, and Carlos first match on clay. Well, I think it will be a difficult transition for him, and he may be preparing for the Spanish tournaments such as Barcelona, Madrid, Rome, and Roland Garros. I like what I've seen from Korda. He hits a heavy ball, and could put alot of pressure on Carlos if he falls behind. I feel that Alcaraz has had an incredible amount of success on hard courts recently because is so solid from the back line, but if there is some doubts on clean ball striking today.. This match could be up for grabs to the other extremely high rated prospect.

if alcaraz is at his normal level which I don t see why he wouldn t be, I don t see what advantages korda has on clay...sebi can be prety erratic and he ll find it hard to get through alcaraz's defence and speed

[Grass Cash]

He will need to serve much stronger to win the match, which I see possible, and explained that Korda has a match under his belt in Monte Carlo already which could be useful.

[raduvlad1995]

25 minutes ago, money44 said:

He will need to serve much stronger to win the match, which I see possible, and explained that Korda has a match under his belt in Monte Carlo already which could be useful.

I guess we ll see, also korda's serve is not the weapon it could be yet and alcaraz has clay as his bread and butter , it's not like the kid doesn't know how clay works.

[vvararu]

Hey guys, who do you think is more of a sure thing for today between Schwartzman (against Fucsovic) and Carreno Busta (against Bublik)? Both are hard-workers, both prefer clay... What would be your pick?

[Robinnho]

Both are young and talented and H2H 1-1 but @1.60 I think it is worth a punt on Felix AA to beat Musetti.  Felix form was good in the beginning of the year before fading before Monte Carlo but I think he is preparing to do well here.

 

Good Luck! 

[Grass Cash]

Holger Rune to beat Casper Ruud@+450 with William Hill

Rune has had alot of matches on clay already now.. He has some injury problem in his career, but I am not sure how healthy he is.. Odds look way off.. closer to a 30% chance.. Will try it.

I am watching the match.. I guess Rune will probably lose.. That's my last post for today.. gl

Edited April 13, 2022 by money44

[CzechPunter]

@vvararu There are good reasons for them being favorites. I think both are likely to win, especially PCB.