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KennyDelight

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Everything posted by KennyDelight

  1. Alja Tomljanovic 2.10 to beat Anastasija Sevastova Bet365 Reasons: Home crowd support, a good lead up to the first major with preparation games v Halep, Sharapova, Pliskova and Putintseva Sevastova leads 2-0 h2h but both in Mallorca on grass. Has been a bit average at end of 2019 and continued with 2 losses in lead up games to the Open to similar players to Tomljanovic (Kenin, Vekic)
  2. Ludmila Samsonova 2.20 to beat Jelena Ostapenko Bet365 Reasons: Samsonova has had a full two months of training and playing. Had a full run in Australia including 3 qualifiers. Ostapenko hasn't featured in any matches in the lead up to the Australian Open and her father recently passed away
  3. Thanks Money Was a bit worried when she came onto court with strapping on her thigh, her first service dropped to about 30%, even conspired to throw away a double break lead, but she pulled through against a pretty here and there performance by Stephens I would not back Ludmila v Pavlyuchenkova/Kvitova, but glad she had enough to get it done today
  4. Ludmila Samsonova 2.50 to beat Sloane Stephens Bet365 @WTA Brisbane Reasons: Ludmila has been training and playing during the month of December during the indoor swing, pulling off wins v Corbet and Giorgi Has 3 matches under her belt in Brisbane, including a decent win v Mladenovic Sloane Stephens had an average 2019 and has an average record in Australia, so a match on the outside courts first up at 11am may not get her motivated v a big hitting opponent who can frustrate her
  5. This Bol final so far has pretty much been about pushing. Most of the shots are mild power into the middle. And now Sorribes-Tormo seem to have changed her service style, when she's hitting the serve now both arms parallel like someone playing volleyball BTW Nottingham weather is bad for the whole week. Keep that in mind for this week. Only Vekic has anything meaningful to defend and the majority of the field didn't play last year
  6. Tamara Zidansek @1.80 to beat Sara Sorribes-Tormo Bet365 Backing the defending champion here based on the two styles. Zidansek is quick around the court, her positioning is solid and she has the ability to push players around the court from the baseline due to her forehand which is powerful yet controlled more often than not. She has the ability to slice as seen this week in countering Voegele and Juvan, so I fail to see how Sorribes-Tormo has any advantage over Zidansek. Sorribes-Tormo's serve is lacking power and is ripe for plunder against Zidansek. Zidansek's serve hasn't been great this week but I don't see how Sorribes-Tormo can take advantage with her lack of power and will most likely resort to her moonball and slice game. With Zidansek's power from the back of the court, this tactic may not come up trumps against an in form clay player who has good defence to to with her attack minded game.
  7. WTA Bol 125k Tamara Zidansek 2.10 v Timea Bacsinszky I don't think Zidansek has started off great in her first two matches. It took her time to get into both matches but she eventually got the job done. She's the form player out of the two this year on clay, finalist here last year. Timea hasn't really been impressive on clay this year, also had two soft matches to come into this (Nao Hibino and Anna Tatishvili). Also bombed out of the French to Kurumi Nara in qualifying. There is value imo in the slight outsider whose massive forehand is a weapon when on and is fairly quick in her movement
  8. Darko is Garin value in the final? Odds opened Garin 1.80 Berretinni 2.00
  9. I noticed the trend on tennis explorer too. I feel about 6/10 confidence despite the slight change in odds (about 10 cents). I don't think it's too much a fluctuation to take much notice, for me this should be more a 1.80 v 1.80 matchup. Edit: Odds on Yafan Wang have drifted to 1.72 and now Saisai has shortened to 2.00 with Bet365
  10. Saisai Zheng 2.20 to beat Yafan Wang Bet365 Reasonings behind pick: - h2h 4-0 Zheng - Wang's first Madrid Open, slower surface. Her game doesn't have the most variety and her strength is her power, but I don't see her being able to outhit Zheng. Zheng has a little bit more variety and can utilise her slices, approaches to the net, moonballs and - Wang doesn't have a outstanding record on clay, neither Zheng but Zheng has played on this surface 2 years ago and made the second round including a win over Svitolina. Zheng just won the clay tournament in Anning whilst Wang came off a 3 set loss to Konta on a bit faster clay surface. I feel Zheng's style is more suited to this slower surface
  11. I didn't bet on this one but was watching the match and what you said about Kyrgios being an asshole came true. Kyrgios was again acting a fool in the final set. Not sure if truly injured but his last set was typical Kyrgios and even managed to dance to the music on a changeover His matches are really blacklisted for me no matter where he plays
  12. Jennifer Brady 2.10 to win a set v Petra Kvitova (Bet365) Total player games Jennifer Brady over 8.5 games 1.83 (Bet365) I don't see why Kvitova is such a heavier favourite than she was against Siniakova (1.22 v 4.30). Brady is in better form in humid conditions in Hua Hin and Dubai and Siniakova is a bit of a mental wreck and is one of the Czech players who Petra has a stangelhold on. Last week I saw Siniakova break down and cry against Bonaventure and she showed too much respect to Petra, even running through so Petra didn't have to wait at the net at changeovers. Not that I am downplaying her match v Siniakova but feel she'll be playing an opponent in Brady with a slightly better mental state than Siniakova and no history of friendship, matches or understanding of. Watching the Kvitova match, she didn't really enjoy the warm humid/windy conditions yesterday. She will be playing 11am start again in Dubai which is set to be windy and humid again. She looked to be breathing very heavy from the early points and looked to shorten the points early on. Looking at her record in Dubai all her matches have gone 3 sets (albeit her only 3 appearances have come between 2014-2016)
  13. As much as I think Ostapenko is normally a class above Brady, today could be more challenging. Ostapenko's serving will be under much scrutiny against a big hitter and the challenging wind conditions in Dubai. Brady has 2 matches under her belt this year in Dubai conditions, both straight sets. Ostapenko's record in Dubai is 2 times losing her first match of the tournament (Wang, Vesnina) and 1 time losing in second qualifying round (Mattek-Sands)
  14. She is playing like Hsieh did last night. To make it worse, Brady has a long service game and immediately takes a MTO for a back rub. Fuming
  15. Hsieh Su-Wei -2.5 games to beat Monica Niculescu 1.80 Bet365 One of the more in form Asian players in the game right now, and quite underrated. Niculescu's style should not trouble Hsieh, who has enough variety (unorthodox) and intelligence around the court in her game to counteract the typical Niculescu style (slowing the points down, slices here and there). The players who are usually troubled by Niculescu are the players who don't have the variety in their game and base their game around all out attack, power, or limited in their repertoire.
  16. The Sasnovich - Kvitova match has been delayed at least 1 hour 25 minutes due to storms in Sydney. 2.75 on Sasnovich wouldn't be out of the question given Kvitova has defended her points from last year and given storms are predicted for rest of tonight Chances are it'll be delayed until tomorrow if forecasts are correct (right now in Sydney thunder and lightning, medium to heavy rain)
  17. Tatjana Maria 2.00 v Andrea Petkovic @ 2.00 Bet365 The courts in Linz aren't that fast or very high bouncing, matches have been stretched out for well over 2 hours yesterday. Can anticipate a longer match as Tatjana Maria has shown she is able to hang around in matches especially when she utilises her slices which would be extremely effective in these conditions. Looking at Petkovic's history this year, she struggled last month against Sorribes Tormo and Cabrera. This year losses against Gavrilova, Vinci, Niculescu. Similar players to Maria. I feel this is a pattern in her game which reflects the lack of patience in longer matches especially with players who don't offer the greatest power for their opponents to feed off but have good court positioning and utilise the slice and drop shots effectively, like to stretch matches out.
  18. Muguruza/Sorribes Tormo under 18.5 games 1.72 @Bet365 Based on recent form, Muguruza has covered under 18 games recently in the Asian swing this year against van Uytvanck, Golubic, Makarova who are a little better than Sorribes Tormo. Sorribes Tormo is a player lacking any power behind her serve and not as big groundstrokes as the average WTA player and can't really hit past Muguruza. Muguruza's only losses this Asian swing this year have come against players with more power and the ability to move her round the court and simply don't see that in Sorribes Tormo. She's like a b-grade Errani
  19. Kanepi 1st set v Ostapenko @ 2.00 Bet365 Even on her best day Ostapenko's serving can be unreliable at times and given this is her first outing on grass this year I expect her to take time to settle into the match and Kanepi is a solid enough player and can destroy Ostapenko's typical weak flat second service when available like she did to Nara's second serves yesterday
  20. Beat me to it Yogg. I am backing Goerges based on Barty's win last week and how she got a bit fortunate against Dodin in that first set. There were signs of fatigue against Dodin and Goerges is a step up on Dodin, even if she can be a bit inconsistent. But if she gets it right especially on serve she can win Tailing. Good luck
  21. Kudermetova 2.20 to beat Krunic Bet365 Kudermetova 2.10 1st set Bet365 Happy to back Kudermetova once again in this one. I don't know if she'll win the tournament but don't see Krunic being a person to be able to match up well going on what I saw yesterday from both players. Once again I feel Krunic's odds have underestimated Kudermetova. In the first set Schoofs threw away the set and even in the second Krunic's serve looked vulnerable. She gave away 10 break points opportunities in the match and that is plenty for Kudermetova if Krunic serves the same. In the match Krunic won only 60% points on first serves and 50% second serves. Converted only 6/15 break point opportunities and the way Kudermetova is serving she'll probably won't get as many as that. At times in the match especially in the first set Krunic struggled with Schoof's angles and it was Schoof's unforced errors which cost her in the first set. Kudermetova is a step up from Schoofs especially in the power and I'm going to repeat the same bets as yesterday
  22. I'm on French as well. Jakupovic is inconsistent and when struggling in matches tries the drop shot too often. I don't think that tactic will work out as well on grass as it does for clay
  23. Kudermetova 2.75 to beat Belinda Bencic Bet365 Kudermetova 2.50 to win 1st set Bet365 I feel the odds were made with Bencic's name and past form in this tournament (2 years ago) in mind and have not considered Bencic's lack of regular form and fitness over recent times. She won against a lucky loser in round 1 and I think the odds for Bencic didn't factor in the step up in promising opponent If Kudermetova can replicate the standard of serving and returning as she did v an in form and reigning 'bosh champion Kontaveit then she will have a solid opportunity to win against Bencic who is still finding her feet with form and fitness
  24. Ashleigh Barty 6.00 to win WTA Nottingham Bet365 Barty twice in a row quarter finalist at Nottingham, only losing to Konta and Karolina Pliskova in the past. The draw has been very kind to her, with Konta/Vekic/Rybarikova/Giorgi on the opposite side of the draw. Looking at the half of the draw Barty is in, it seems pretty average. Seeded players on her side are Naomi Osaka, Diyas and Buznarescu. Naomi Osaka is in there but I don't see her as a potential threat on the grass and Buznarescu has no record on playing grass. Last year Barty pushed Kvitova and Mugaruza on grass and I think her style and patient style of play will be why she will succeed. She'll mix up her shots and her slice backhand will be a weapon once again. Konta has been in average form the whole season thus far and with Vekic and Rybarikova, I hardly see her having an easy run to the final if she makes it Further Edit 11/06/2018: Barty is not playing doubles in Nottingham Seeded singles players Konta, Diyas, Vekic, Buznarescu all playing doubles