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Racing - Chat. Saturday 12th March.


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Lively Citizen    1/4    pt win     25/1     sand   2 25

Surprise Package 1/4 pt win    16/1      sand  2 25

marble sands  1 50 san     1/4 pt win    25/1

dance fever    2 04 san 1/4 pt win    16/1   

 

P/L  + 119 pt  

Edited by black rabbit
adding selections
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The calm before the storm! Still 7 winners to be found on Imperial Cup Day at Sandown where the ground is on the slow side of good but drying. Here’s my thoughts on the 4 at Sandown and 3 at Wolverhampton where its Lincoln Trial Day.

 

Wolverhampton 1.31

Nine sprinters go to post for this class 2 6F handicap with a winners purse of only £10,308 which is to be honest pitiful. Zarzyni arrives in excellent shape and looks a big player for sprint king David Barron whilst the Horse Watcher’s runner here Whittle Le Woods also arrives in excellent form and is another for the short list. I’m going to take a chance on a big priced runner though in Full Authority. He races off of the same mark today as when he won over the course and distance in October 2020 when in the care of Sir Michael Stoute. He spent 2021 in the care of Yorkshire trainer Richard Fahey showing very little in three outings in top sprint handicap grade and now back in calmer waters having been gelded and with Jane Chapple-Hyam who has a very good record when taking over other trainers ‘cast-offs’ he can run a nice race at big odds. He only went for 7k when joining Chapple-Hyam which is a bit of a worry but at double figure odds I’ll take my chances.

 

FULL AUTHORITY 1 point each way @ 18/1 1/5th 1234 Skybet

 

Sandown 1.50

Always a competitive handicap, the EBF Novices’ Handicap Hurdle looks no different this season with a near maximum field of 17 going to post. With 11 of the 17 making their handicap debut it’s worth monitoring the market during the run up to post time. Current favourite is top weight Knappers Hill who looks the one they all have to beat. His trainer Paul Nicholls won this with the gambled on McFabulous two years ago and his representative here was a very credible 6th in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last month on his handicap bow. Royaume Uni finished just behind him that day and bolted up at Fontwell earlier in the week to give the form a boost. Off of the same handicap mark he looks sure to be competitive. Nicholls also saddle Complete Unknown ridden by Lorcan Williams. Peejaybee, trained at Newmarket by Richard Spencer is another for the shortlist having already won a handicap over course and distance in February and now 7lb higher having landed the odds at Sedgefield in a poor novice hurdle since. Olly Murphy runs Thunder Rock who stepped into handicap company at Huntingdon last month when defeating Dorking Boy by a length and a quarter. He’s been re-assessed since though and is now 6lb higher. The Skelton’s are always feared in races of this kind and they run three with trainer’s brother Harry presumably choosing Our Jet who looks the pick of the trio. Harry Fry has his string in decent form and his Dubrovnik Harry is making his handicap debut here following on from a slightly disappointing effort at Leicester when turned over at 1/3 by a Pipe horse who’s pulled up in a grade 2 since. A tough race but the selection has to be Knappers Hill off of the same mark as when running a stormer last time and he can give weight all round under Harry Cobden.

 

KNAPPERS HILL 2 points each way @ 5/1 1/4 1234 Ladbrokes / Coral

 

Wolverhampton 2.05

The MansionBet Lincoln Trial Handicap is run over 1m 142 yds and has attracted a dozen runners. Likely warm favourite La Tihaty represents Roger Varian and is obviously a smart type who’s chasing a fifth consecutive victory and is one of five in this race that actually holds an entry in the Lincoln in a fortnights time. He’s up 9lb for his recent win at Kempton with the negative today, in my eyes anyways, being the wide draw. Drawn 12 in the widest stall is a big negative and at around the 2/1 mark I’m happy enough to take him on. There’s little between Baldomero and United Front on recent form and both have chances but I’ll take a chance with the Ed Walker trained Hafeet Alain, a recent winner at Lingfield. He has already met La Tihaty back in January at Kempton going down by a length but now 7lb better off which gives him a proper chance of turning over the favourite. Richard Kingscote has the reigns today.

 

HAFEET ALAIN 1 point each way @ 5/1 1/5 1234 BetVictor

 

Sandown 2.25

A maximum field of 22 assemble for this year’s renewal of the Imperial Cup, a handicap hurdle run over the minimum trip of two miles. The weights are headed by Miranda, one of three runners for Paul Nicholls, who has his team back in decent shape. Samarive is the chosen one of that trio by Nicholls’ stable jockey Harry Cobden and has to be given plenty of respect although he did blow out last time. Neil King runs his exciting handicapper Onemorefortheroad who was last seen when running a stormer at Ascot under Bryony Frost before Christmas when runner up to Tritonic. Only a pound higher now and with Jack Quinlan taking over from Frost he looks likely to be in the shake up if employing his customary front running tactics. Also very much on the short list is Nicky Henderson’s Balco Coastal, a novice stepping into a handicap for the first time off of what appears to be a workable mark. The only downside to his chance has to be the form of the stable who have now gone 23 runners and 19 days since their last win, although to be fair they haven’t run anything of note in that period. If you’re a Constitution Hill/Jonbon/Shishkin fan you’ll be looking for a big run from either him or Lucia in the 3.00 today that’s for sure. Hystery Bere is also worth mentioning as his latest form has been boosted since by the win of Cormier who beat him at Cheltenham. The selection though has to be Onemorefortheroad with a small saver on the favourite Balco Coastal.

 

ONEMOREFORTHEROAD 2 points each way @ 8/1 Betfred 1/5th 123456

BALCO COASTAL 1 point win @ 7/2 William Hill

 

Wolverhampton 2.40

The listed Wulfruna Stakes is run over 7F and has attracted a field of ten today. On official ratings Happy Power comes out best and although he has never run on the all-weather has a definite chance for the in form Andrew Balding team. Internationalangel is an interesting contender who’s chasing her seventh consecutive victory at this trip although they have all been in handicaps and Jane Chapple-Hyam’s five year old takes a step up in grade today. The most interesting runner to me is the Tom Dascombe trained Misty Grey. He’s unbeaten in four outings at the Midlands track and chased home the progressive La Tihaty (runs in 2.05) at Kempton last time out over a mile. Dropping back a furlong should suit and he would have as good a chance as any at his favourite track. The best outsider maybe Rae Guest’s mare Fauvette who beat one of todays rivals Highfield Princess at Chelmsford last time fair and square by 3/4L and although 3lb worse off today shouldn’t be four times the price of that one. The form has subsequently been boosted by the horse that was sandwiched between that pair, Arousing, winning well earlier in the week.

 

MISTY GREY 1 point win 10/3 Bet365

FAUVETTE 1/2 point each way @ 28/1 1/5 1234 William Hill

 

Sandown 3.00

A dozen mares assemble for this listed mares only bumper with a warm favourite in the Milton Harris trained Mullenbeg who was very impressive when bolting up at Cheltenham in a similar contest in January. She runs here in preference to taking on the boys in the Cheltenham Champion bumper next week and must have a major chance. At the prices though I’ll take her on with the Nicky Henderson trained Luccia who made a promising racecourse bow when running away from Blow Your Wad (runner up earlier in the week at Exeter) at Warwick. As a four year old she gets the 10lb age allowance and that may make the difference here with Nico De Boinville taking over from Ben Ffrench Davis who rode her at Warwick. With some firms paying four places she can be backed each way. Flirtatious Girl won this last year and is back to defend her title but this looks a stronger heat than a year ago.

 

LUCCIA 2 points each way @ 13/2 1/5 1234 Bet365

 

Sandown 3.35

Only six go to post for this novices’ handicap chase with all of the competitors having a chance of sorts. With the ground noticeably drying it may be worth sticking with Charlie Longsdon’s top weight who appears to need good ground. Impressive in winning all three of his starts over fences under Jonathan Burke he looks sure to be competitive here. Paul Nicholls saddles a brace of runners in Flic Ou Voyou and Danny Kirwan with preference with the latter who impressed at Wincanton in a novice chase last time. The drying conditions look likely to be against the Venetia Williams trained Frenchy Du Large who has been pulled out before due to good ground. Killer Kane drops in trip and has claims along with Dorking Lad who’s chasing a hat trick but is creeping up the handicap.

A tough race but it’s Scene Not Herd for me.

 

SCENE NOT HERD 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365

 

 

 

 

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I'm with the brigadier in imperial cup just favouring balco

In the 150 I think knappers hill will win

131wol zarzyni

150 San knappers hill 4/1 from 5s nap gone to 7/2 at 1745 lol 4/1 at Ladbrokes 928am

240wol happy power

335 San scene not heard

Hopefully sum extra money for Cheltenham

 

Edited by Budgie 65
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150 San knappers hill 10/3 nap

After having doubts and thinking about changing to the 335 scene not heard I've decided to stick with knappers hill only £7.50 win but he is the class horse and my speed figure has him 5 lengths clear. So good luck everyone our jet is 13 lbs better off but raced in cl4 last time I think the money for our jet is ew money

Why 2 feeds for Saturday the brigadier has been doin writeups with excellent info for years

Edited by Budgie 65
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2.25 Sandown 

not my idea of fun 22 horses going hammer and tongs over hurdles but I’ll have a go 

 

Hydroplane 8.9

Current Mood 8.6

Samarrive 8.56

Balco Coastal 8.48

Onemorefortheroad 8.46

Calico 8.42

2.50 points ew Hydroplane 33/1 paying 7 places 

 

Edited by Villa Chris
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For what it’s worth Sandown 2.25 have a share in Hacker des Place and Miranda, ultra competitive handicap. Can’t really give Miranda a chance off top weight, gets her ground after overnight rain, last race ground was too quick and PN’s horses were off for me, was she also? However Hacker des Place is right in with a chance, run and won mainly on Heavy but be interesting on slightly better ground, Angus (5lb claimed) has won on him twice, don’t see him making the pace but will be just off it. Had 3 solid runs after long lay off due to a bad cut when he won impressively at Wetherby if PN’s horses have been off slightly he has not really shown it. However also like Lively Citizen and Leboski (dodgy pulled up) behind Jon Bon on heavy at Haydock.

Anyway Eachway on Hacker and Leboski to 6 places with Paddy bog at 14’s and 25’s respectively

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On 3/10/2022 at 9:34 PM, richard-westwood said:

Current mood  8.5 22.0.

Hacker des places  8.2 18.5 

Kivavah     8.2  36.0 

Balco coastal  7.7   

One more for road   7.6 

Mr Grey sky      7.3 

Tough tough race as you'd expect .....some big prices in top 3 so I'll roll the dice .....5pts win top 3 

i shortlisted these 4Screenshot_20220312-083631.thumb.png.dd0afd515e2e41e1f04a23e7d24c1966.png

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Going for a whopper today, prices as of last night.

131 wolve           Full Authority     14/1
150 sand            Georges saint      25/1

225 sand            Hydroplane         33/1

1215 jebel ali      Gabr                   14/1

Fiver wins on all and a quid on the lucky 15 (£15). total 35 quid the lot.

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Trends for Imperial Cup (Sandown 2.25)

Last ran more than 30 days ago, 0 from 42. This reduces the field from 22 to 8.

Top 6 in the weights, 1 from 38. This reduces the field to 7.

Irish bred, 4 from 33. This reduces the field to 4, MONVIEL, MR GREY SKY, HOWDYALIKEMENOW and UP FOR PAROL.

Age = 5, 4 from 25. This leaves MONVIEL, available at 33/1, 6 places.

 

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Two Trixies today

2.45 Ayr Leitrim Chief 15/8

3.41 Her Prince Escalus 5/4

4.16 Her Holly Hartingo 6/4

1 x 4 pt win Trixie poss return 35.43

1.50 San Knappers Hill 9/2

2.25 San Balco Coastal 9/2

3.31 Lin Stine Soldier 10/3

1 x 2 pt win Trixie = poss return 104.48 pts

Singles

1.56 Her Abegusam 0.5 pts win at 3/1

3.00 San Luccia 0.5 pt win at 10/3 and Eabha Grace 0.5 pt win at 11/1

5.04 Wolv Tabeeb 0.5 pts win at 13/2

4.06 Lin Soyounique 0.5 pts win at 5/1

= Total stakes of 8.5 points

 

 

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On 3/11/2022 at 12:20 PM, black rabbit said:

Lively Citizen    1/4    pt win     25/1     sand   2 25

Surprise Package 1/4 pt win    16/1      sand  2 25

marble sands  1 50 san     1/4 pt win    25/1

dance fever    2 04 san 1/4 pt win    16/1   

 

P/L  + 119 pt  

Pity you didn’t do reverse forecast . That would have paid well 

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On 3/11/2022 at 1:35 PM, The Brigadier said:

The calm before the storm! Still 7 winners to be found on Imperial Cup Day at Sandown where the ground is on the slow side of good but drying. Here’s my thoughts on the 4 at Sandown and 3 at Wolverhampton where its Lincoln Trial Day.

 

Wolverhampton 1.31

Nine sprinters go to post for this class 2 6F handicap with a winners purse of only £10,308 which is to be honest pitiful. Zarzyni arrives in excellent shape and looks a big player for sprint king David Barron whilst the Horse Watcher’s runner here Whittle Le Woods also arrives in excellent form and is another for the short list. I’m going to take a chance on a big priced runner though in Full Authority. He races off of the same mark today as when he won over the course and distance in October 2020 when in the care of Sir Michael Stoute. He spent 2021 in the care of Yorkshire trainer Richard Fahey showing very little in three outings in top sprint handicap grade and now back in calmer waters having been gelded and with Jane Chapple-Hyam who has a very good record when taking over other trainers ‘cast-offs’ he can run a nice race at big odds. He only went for 7k when joining Chapple-Hyam which is a bit of a worry but at double figure odds I’ll take my chances.

 

FULL AUTHORITY 1 point each way @ 18/1 1/5th 1234 Skybet

 

Sandown 1.50

Always a competitive handicap, the EBF Novices’ Handicap Hurdle looks no different this season with a near maximum field of 17 going to post. With 11 of the 17 making their handicap debut it’s worth monitoring the market during the run up to post time. Current favourite is top weight Knappers Hill who looks the one they all have to beat. His trainer Paul Nicholls won this with the gambled on McFabulous two years ago and his representative here was a very credible 6th in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last month on his handicap bow. Royaume Uni finished just behind him that day and bolted up at Fontwell earlier in the week to give the form a boost. Off of the same handicap mark he looks sure to be competitive. Nicholls also saddle Complete Unknown ridden by Lorcan Williams. Peejaybee, trained at Newmarket by Richard Spencer is another for the shortlist having already won a handicap over course and distance in February and now 7lb higher having landed the odds at Sedgefield in a poor novice hurdle since. Olly Murphy runs Thunder Rock who stepped into handicap company at Huntingdon last month when defeating Dorking Boy by a length and a quarter. He’s been re-assessed since though and is now 6lb higher. The Skelton’s are always feared in races of this kind and they run three with trainer’s brother Harry presumably choosing Our Jet who looks the pick of the trio. Harry Fry has his string in decent form and his Dubrovnik Harry is making his handicap debut here following on from a slightly disappointing effort at Leicester when turned over at 1/3 by a Pipe horse who’s pulled up in a grade 2 since. A tough race but the selection has to be Knappers Hill off of the same mark as when running a stormer last time and he can give weight all round under Harry Cobden.

 

KNAPPERS HILL 2 points each way @ 5/1 1/4 1234 Ladbrokes / Coral

 

Wolverhampton 2.05

The MansionBet Lincoln Trial Handicap is run over 1m 142 yds and has attracted a dozen runners. Likely warm favourite La Tihaty represents Roger Varian and is obviously a smart type who’s chasing a fifth consecutive victory and is one of five in this race that actually holds an entry in the Lincoln in a fortnights time. He’s up 9lb for his recent win at Kempton with the negative today, in my eyes anyways, being the wide draw. Drawn 12 in the widest stall is a big negative and at around the 2/1 mark I’m happy enough to take him on. There’s little between Baldomero and United Front on recent form and both have chances but I’ll take a chance with the Ed Walker trained Hafeet Alain, a recent winner at Lingfield. He has already met La Tihaty back in January at Kempton going down by a length but now 7lb better off which gives him a proper chance of turning over the favourite. Richard Kingscote has the reigns today.

 

HAFEET ALAIN 1 point each way @ 5/1 1/5 1234 BetVictor

 

Sandown 2.25

A maximum field of 22 assemble for this year’s renewal of the Imperial Cup, a handicap hurdle run over the minimum trip of two miles. The weights are headed by Miranda, one of three runners for Paul Nicholls, who has his team back in decent shape. Samarive is the chosen one of that trio by Nicholls’ stable jockey Harry Cobden and has to be given plenty of respect although he did blow out last time. Neil King runs his exciting handicapper Onemorefortheroad who was last seen when running a stormer at Ascot under Bryony Frost before Christmas when runner up to Tritonic. Only a pound higher now and with Jack Quinlan taking over from Frost he looks likely to be in the shake up if employing his customary front running tactics. Also very much on the short list is Nicky Henderson’s Balco Coastal, a novice stepping into a handicap for the first time off of what appears to be a workable mark. The only downside to his chance has to be the form of the stable who have now gone 23 runners and 19 days since their last win, although to be fair they haven’t run anything of note in that period. If you’re a Constitution Hill/Jonbon/Shishkin fan you’ll be looking for a big run from either him or Lucia in the 3.00 today that’s for sure. Hystery Bere is also worth mentioning as his latest form has been boosted since by the win of Cormier who beat him at Cheltenham. The selection though has to be Onemorefortheroad with a small saver on the favourite Balco Coastal.

 

ONEMOREFORTHEROAD 2 points each way @ 8/1 Betfred 1/5th 123456

BALCO COASTAL 1 point win @ 7/2 William Hill

 

Wolverhampton 2.40

The listed Wulfruna Stakes is run over 7F and has attracted a field of ten today. On official ratings Happy Power comes out best and although he has never run on the all-weather has a definite chance for the in form Andrew Balding team. Internationalangel is an interesting contender who’s chasing her seventh consecutive victory at this trip although they have all been in handicaps and Jane Chapple-Hyam’s five year old takes a step up in grade today. The most interesting runner to me is the Tom Dascombe trained Misty Grey. He’s unbeaten in four outings at the Midlands track and chased home the progressive La Tihaty (runs in 2.05) at Kempton last time out over a mile. Dropping back a furlong should suit and he would have as good a chance as any at his favourite track. The best outsider maybe Rae Guest’s mare Fauvette who beat one of todays rivals Highfield Princess at Chelmsford last time fair and square by 3/4L and although 3lb worse off today shouldn’t be four times the price of that one. The form has subsequently been boosted by the horse that was sandwiched between that pair, Arousing, winning well earlier in the week.

 

MISTY GREY 1 point win 10/3 Bet365

FAUVETTE 1/2 point each way @ 28/1 1/5 1234 William Hill

 

Sandown 3.00

A dozen mares assemble for this listed mares only bumper with a warm favourite in the Milton Harris trained Mullenbeg who was very impressive when bolting up at Cheltenham in a similar contest in January. She runs here in preference to taking on the boys in the Cheltenham Champion bumper next week and must have a major chance. At the prices though I’ll take her on with the Nicky Henderson trained Luccia who made a promising racecourse bow when running away from Blow Your Wad (runner up earlier in the week at Exeter) at Warwick. As a four year old she gets the 10lb age allowance and that may make the difference here with Nico De Boinville taking over from Ben Ffrench Davis who rode her at Warwick. With some firms paying four places she can be backed each way. Flirtatious Girl won this last year and is back to defend her title but this looks a stronger heat than a year ago.

 

LUCCIA 2 points each way @ 13/2 1/5 1234 Bet365

 

Sandown 3.35

Only six go to post for this novices’ handicap chase with all of the competitors having a chance of sorts. With the ground noticeably drying it may be worth sticking with Charlie Longsdon’s top weight who appears to need good ground. Impressive in winning all three of his starts over fences under Jonathan Burke he looks sure to be competitive here. Paul Nicholls saddles a brace of runners in Flic Ou Voyou and Danny Kirwan with preference with the latter who impressed at Wincanton in a novice chase last time. The drying conditions look likely to be against the Venetia Williams trained Frenchy Du Large who has been pulled out before due to good ground. Killer Kane drops in trip and has claims along with Dorking Lad who’s chasing a hat trick but is creeping up the handicap.

A tough race but it’s Scene Not Herd for me.

 

SCENE NOT HERD 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365

 

 

 

 

A 10 point profit on the day with Luccia the stand out bet. Good to see Mr Henderson back in form with next week in mind.

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On 3/11/2022 at 12:20 PM, black rabbit said:

Lively Citizen    1/4    pt win     25/1     sand   2 25

Surprise Package 1/4 pt win    16/1      sand  2 25

marble sands  1 50 san     1/4 pt win    25/1

dance fever    2 04 san 1/4 pt win    16/1   

 

P/L  + 119 pt  

1st   and  2nd  in the  Imperial      and  2nd in  1 50 also 

beers   wine  and  a curry  i think 

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10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Two Trixies today

2.45 Ayr Leitrim Chief 15/8

3.41 Her Prince Escalus 5/4

4.16 Her Holly Hartingo 6/4

1 x 4 pt win Trixie poss return 35.43

1.50 San Knappers Hill 9/2

2.25 San Balco Coastal 9/2

3.31 Lin Stine Soldier 10/3

1 x 2 pt win Trixie = poss return 104.48 pts

Singles

1.56 Her Abegusam 0.5 pts win at 3/1

3.00 San Luccia 0.5 pt win at 10/3 and Eabha Grace 0.5 pt win at 11/1

5.04 Wolv Tabeeb 0.5 pts win at 13/2

4.06 Lin Soyounique 0.5 pts win at 5/1

= Total stakes of 8.5 points

 

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Only 1 winner today so a poor showing.  At least my Nap won and I think that I got through into the next round of the KO Cup.  Anyway, -6.33 on the day.  MTD -8.21 points and YTD -120.28

 

 

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On 3/11/2022 at 12:20 PM, black rabbit said:

Lively Citizen    1/4    pt win     25/1     sand   2 25

Surprise Package 1/4 pt win    16/1      sand  2 25

marble sands  1 50 san     1/4 pt win    25/1

dance fever    2 04 san 1/4 pt win    16/1   

 

P/L  + 119 pt  

that was one hell of a bet!  

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