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Racing Chat - Saturday February 19th

The Brigadier
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The Brigadier

The Brigadier

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Posted

Seven races to be shown by ITV this Saturday from Haydock (subject to a 8AM inspection), Ascot and the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton. Soft ground is forecast at all three meetings with Haydock actually claiming heavy conditions so its all about mudlarks this weekend.

 

Ascot 1.50

Six novice’s assemble over just short of three miles of the Berkshire track for the Bateaux London Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase. On official ratings there’s only 8lb between the sextet with the current favourite being the Kim Bailey trained Does He Know. He’s not been seen since the Autumn but is over looked here as his best form is on better ground and his trainer is on record as saying he’s quirky. Lucinda Russell think the world of her Corach Rambler who wears a first time tongue tie here. Only 4lb off if the top rated Does He Know is the total outsider of the field in the Laura Morgan trained J’Ai Froid who looks the value bet here. He’s yet to hit the heights of his hurdles form (he was a four time winner last term) but has shown enough in two starts to suggest he can be competitive for a trainer who’s in red hot form at present winning with 5 of her last 13 runners.

 

J’AI FROID 1 point win @ 9/1 888Sport

 

Haydock 2.05

Six go to post or the 3m 58 yds Rendlesham Hurdle. Last years winner Third Wind had to shoulder a 6lb penalty here but his trainer Hughie Morrison has his team in top shape so can’t be ruled out. Also shouldering a 6lb penalty is the Olly Murphy runner Thomas Darby who’s the best in at these weights having won the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury in November. The only mare in the race is Molly Olly’s Wishes who also has to carry a 6lb penalty. Dan Skelton’s eight year old is unbeaten in two attempts at three miles and arrives here following a win in a grade two at Ascot in January. I’ll take here to beat her five rivals.

 

MOLLY OLLYS WISHES 1 point win @ 9/4 William Hill

 

Ascot 2.25

A competitive ten runner 3 mile handicap chase where cases can be made for the majority of these. The current favourite is Fiddlerontheroof who we haven’t seen since finishing runner up in the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury in November. He must have a decent chance but has to give weight all round and his price is rather skinny at around 11/4. Ask Me Early is a progressive chaser who’s won 5 of his last 7 starts but this is his second preference and all being well goes to Wincanton for a weaker race. Venetia Williams string is in terrific form and she saddles bottom weight Hold That Taught who’s a lively outsider but the horse that catches my eye is the Henry Daly trained Fortescue. He’s kept good handicap company in his last two starts, finishing runner up to Four Star Getaway at Kempton and a decent third to Royale Pagaille in the Peter Marsh at Haydock. With conditions to suit he looks a good each way bet.

 

FORTESCUE 1 point each way @ 11/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Haydock 2.40

This year’s William Hill Grand National Trial Handicap Chase has attracted eleven runners and will be a severe stamina test run over 3m 4F 97yds on very testing ground.

Secret Reprieve ran a lot better than his finishing position would suggest in this year’s Welsh National and the handicapper has kindly dropped him a couple of pounds. He’ll love both trip and ground and looks the one to beat for Evan Williams and Adam Wedge.

Teenager Blaklion has found a new leash of life this season and has absolutely bolted up here twice this term. The handicapper has however taken his revenge and pushed him back up the handicap. He too mind will love conditions. Confirmed mudlark and Haydock specialist Bristol De Mai shoulders top weight here and wouldn’t be totally out of it and the same can be said about last years winner Lord Du Mesnil, who can race today off of only a one pound higher mark. Sam Brown trained by the very much in form Anthony Honeyball is another out and out staying mudlark and ran his best race for a while last time out in the Peter Marsh here when pushing the smart Royale Pagaille all the way. A tough race but Secret Reprieve looks well handicapped still and can take the winners prize.

 

SECRET REPRIEVE 2 points win @ 3/1 William Hill

 

Ascot 3.00

A competitive thirteen runner handicap hurdle run over 2m 3F 58yds with Easyland heading the weights. He showed nothing last time and is easily dismissed here. A warm favourite here in the Sam Thomas trained Good Risk At All who will be very hard to beat having been backed in from a s big as 5/1 during the week. He followed up a 6L second to the smart Jonbon by running Donald McCain’s Barrichello to a neck on his handicap debut at Warwick. Given four weeks to get over that race and with a rise of just 3lb he can take this with Charlie Deutsch doing the steering. Paul Nicholls is back in better form now and his Cap Du Mathan maybe the biggest threat to the selection. He came back from a 714 day absence to easily win at Taunton last month and as long as he doesn’t ‘bounce’ should be thereabouts despite a 9lb rise in the weights. Zacony Rebel, a winner of two novice hurdles this season for up and coming trainer Toby Lawes, is another with claims but this should be all about Good Risk To All.

 

GOOD RISK TO ALL 3 points win @ 2/1 William Hill

 

Wincanton 3.20

A small but select field of four go to post for the Kingwell Hurdle run over 1m 7F 50 yds of the Somerset track. With Faivoir coming back from fencing and Llandinabo Lad having a stone to find this looks a match between last years winner Goshen and Adagio. Goshen was ultra impressive in this contest a year ago but isn’t always the most straight forward although to be fair to Gary Moore’s six year old did nothing wrong when winning at Sandown last time. I’m not sure I can fully trust him especially at the likely odds so the bet here has to be the David Pipe trained Adagio. He’s not been seen since an excellent second in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham back in November. He was a smart four year old and his trainer was making all the right sounds in the trade paper earlier in the week so I’ll take him to win and throw his hat into the Champion Hurdle picture against Honeysuckle.

 

ADAGIO 3 points win @ 11/8 William Hill

 

 

Ascot 3.38

A decent turnout for this year’s renewal of the Betfair Ascot Chase, a grade 1 contest run over 2m 5F. Irish raider Fakir D’oudairies has has the mis-fortune to bump into Allaho on his last two outings and is officially the best horse in the field. He sets the standard here. Dashel Drasher has won four of his five starts at Ascot including this contest last year and is another with claims. Venetia Williams has her string in such fine form that her runner here Fanion D’Estruval has to be given plenty of respect with Charlie Deutsch taking over from Lucy Turner. Two For Gold looks overpriced on his recent short head defeat of Dashel Drasher at Lingfield receiving 6lb and could also make his presence felt. Paul Nicholls’ Saint Calvados hasn’t been seen since a credible third in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day and the drop back in trip looks likely to suit. He looks the biggest danger to Fakir D’oudairies who’s the one to beat.

 

FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES 2 points win @ 5/2 William Hill

 

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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

Posted
Posted

Getting more focussed on the big weekend racing now in the run up to chelt .........this weekend a lot will hinge on weather and courses are running heavy but I fancy a go still its good practice 

Race 1 240 hay 

Sam brown   8.7 11/2 

Blaklion   8.2   7/1 

Lord du mesnil  8.0 12/1 

Galloping bear  8.0 8/1 

5th Secret reprieve  7.7 

 

Race 2 315 hay 

Tamar Bridge  8.3 5/1 

Small present 8.1 4.7 

Bushy Park  8.1 7/1 

Flashjack  7.8 14/1 

 5th Bill baxter  7.2   

 

 

 

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The Scientist

The Scientist

Posted
Posted

Excellent help for me. I am no longer a proffesional gambler. Enke at 66-1 triggered my retirement. I have watched a bit more on TV and what shocked me was the various types of "Soft Ground". Each course has a unique version. But whatever the horses struggles, those trained by Venetia Willuams seem to plough on happily.

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The Scientist

The Scientist

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

AW selection

Newcastle 6.00

VESPASIAN 15/8

I have not even got close to working out the Newcastle track so your advice is respected. When a professional I walked every track before ever having a bet and tried to think like a horse. Despite the best efforts of ATR cameras, I am still clueless about thr new all weather course. Vespasian? Ok I ll give it a look

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Trotter

Trotter

Posted
Posted

Been looking a the bumper collection of Grade races today ...... and for a change have ben trying to use 'trends' though obviously there are limitations and problems with that approach ..... so this is a mixture of trends and old fashioned form and hunch etc. Prices bet365

Asc 1.50 - Doyen Breed 5/1 is a solid contender who acts in the conditions and has placed form in a grade race last time out. 

Hayd 2.05 - Third Wind 4/1 won this last year and looks like he's been campaigned for this again, The danger could be Thomas Darby 7/2

Gowran 2.20 - Bit of a strange one for 'trends as the winning-most age group is 6/7 year olds and there aren't any in the field. I'm going with the 5 year olds ....... Teahupoo 2/1 has beaten Quilixios 11/4 twice recently and no reason to think he won't do it again

Hayd 2.40 - (Grade 3 Handicap) Sam Brown 13/2 finished 2nd in a similar race here last time and a repeat performance could see him winning today. Secret Reprieve 9/2 has form in these top level handicaps but does seem to save his best for Chepstow.

Winc 3.20 - Just leave this to Goshen 8/13 with Adagio 7/4 to give him a race and bring home a forecast

Gowran 3.30 - Just leave this to Melon 8/11 who looks better class than these and drops in grade. Daly Tiger 13/2 to chase him home

Asc 3.38 - Fakir D'oudaires 11/4 looks a grade one horse and comes over from Ireland which is generally a pointer. Mister Fisher 6/1 has been running in top races and regained his sparkle last time out

Hayd 3.50 - Green Book 9/4 looks solid. Could be vulnerable to one of the promising types stepping up in trip ..... Hillcrest 11/8 is a bit of a hype horse

Happy punting !

 

 

 

 

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Wildgarden

Wildgarden

Posted
Posted (edited)

lets make some winnings. use it wisely. all bsp

125 lingfield state legend

235 lingfield marchetti or miss sligo

150 ascot annual invictus nap

358 wincanton mr glass

220 gowran teahupoo

338 ascot fakir d'oudaries won

205 haydock third wind

240 haydock the galloping bear

350 haydock hillcrest

Edited by Wildgarden
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The Equaliser

The Equaliser

Posted
Posted

Going for a more open Trixie today with a @richard-westwoodstyle singles bets in one of the races.

3.00 Asc Zacony Rebel 9/2

3.38 Asc Fakir D'oudairies 5/2

4.10 Asc Art Of Diplomacy 4/1

1 x 2 pt win Trixie = poss return 80.23 pts

Singles bet

4.10 Asc Guerlain De Vaux 8/1, Glencassly 9/1 and Atakan 9/1 = 3 x 1 pt win bets (Have left out Imphal because of "going" conditions but no surprise if it wins)

Did consider the 3.00 at Ascot for this type of bet but I don't like Good Risk At All in the race and it looks very dangerous to leave it out

Anyway 5 pts risked in total

Good luck to all but caution is needed I believe today

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The Scientist

The Scientist

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, The Scientist said:

I have not even got close to working out the Newcastle track so your advice is respected. When a professional I walked every track before ever having a bet and tried to think like a horse. Despite the best efforts of ATR cameras, I am still clueless about thr new all weather course. Vespasian? Ok I ll give it a look

Its a pity there are not 8 runners or I would raye LUNASA at 11/2 a better ew bet than VESPASIN the win at 7/4.

But a lot to like about Vespasian and with even a miducum of improvement (settle better/ no bend) he will win.

LUNASA. Athough small, she is game and has a beautiful racing action so who knows?

pays yer money take yer choice.

 

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Wildgarden

Wildgarden

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Trends for the Swinley Chase at Ascot (2.25).

10 yo 5 from 10. This limits the field to 2, Truckers Lodge and Cobolobo.

Weight less than 10st 7lbs, 0 from 13. This leaves Truckers Lodge at 22/1.

 

nicholls due too imo. running 65%. i got all his to certain criteria from now till end march potential for 4-5 winners today just nicholls!

Edited by Wildgarden
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Bang on

Bang on

Posted
Posted (edited)

A short price selection for me with one of my least fav jockeys !!

3.10 Ling - Chrysos - (5/4 P.Power - 11/10 B.O.G. 365) - WON

Jame Spencer's only ride of the day, Trainer Kevin Ryan does a 520 mile round trip.Cost 315K as a2yo, has had 1 run travelling well before a tame finish.

Edited by Bang on
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Wildgarden

Wildgarden

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

lets make some winnings. use it wisely. all bsp

125 lingfield state legend won 1.77

235 lingfield marchetti nowhere or miss sligo 2nd 

150 ascot annual invictus nap 3rd ;-(

358 wincanton mr glass nowhere

220 gowran teahupoo won 2.55

338 ascot fakir d'oudaries won 3.24

205 haydock third wind 3rd ;-(

240 haydock the galloping bear won 5.67

350 haydock hillcrest won 2.07

5/8 races won. +7.05 lsp!

Edited by Wildgarden
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yossa6133

yossa6133

Posted
Posted (edited)

Had to have a few quid on Waiting Patiently (40/1). One of my fav chasers of the last 5 years or so, can forget his last run on unsuitable ground. Low mileage 11 year old might have enough left to get involved in his favoured conditions on only 2nd run for new yard.

 

Never looked happy there.

Edited by yossa6133
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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

3.00 asc

Highway one o two 8.8 bsp

Cap du mathan  8.7 7.0 

Small bad Bob  8.0  bsp 

Straw fan jack  7.8  bsp 

Good risk all    7.5 

1pt top 4  

Highway none runner so by default good luck became bet and duly won ...I'm more happy about small Bob placing at 33/1!!

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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Getting more focussed on the big weekend racing now in the run up to chelt .........this weekend a lot will hinge on weather and courses are running heavy but I fancy a go still its good practice 

Race 1 240 hay 

Sam brown   8.7 11/2 

Blaklion   8.2   7/1 

Lord du mesnil  8.0 12/1 

Galloping bear  8.0 8/1 

5th Secret reprieve  7.7 

 

Race 2 315 hay 

Tamar Bridge  8.3 5/1 

Small present 8.1 4.7 

Bushy Park  8.1 7/1 

Flashjack  7.8 14/1 

 5th Bill baxter  7.2   

 

 

 

Galloping bear wins 8/1 

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The Brigadier

The Brigadier

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On 2/18/2022 at 1:10 PM, The Brigadier said:

Seven races to be shown by ITV this Saturday from Haydock (subject to a 8AM inspection), Ascot and the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton. Soft ground is forecast at all three meetings with Haydock actually claiming heavy conditions so its all about mudlarks this weekend.

 

Ascot 1.50

Six novice’s assemble over just short of three miles of the Berkshire track for the Bateaux London Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase. On official ratings there’s only 8lb between the sextet with the current favourite being the Kim Bailey trained Does He Know. He’s not been seen since the Autumn but is over looked here as his best form is on better ground and his trainer is on record as saying he’s quirky. Lucinda Russell think the world of her Corach Rambler who wears a first time tongue tie here. Only 4lb off if the top rated Does He Know is the total outsider of the field in the Laura Morgan trained J’Ai Froid who looks the value bet here. He’s yet to hit the heights of his hurdles form (he was a four time winner last term) but has shown enough in two starts to suggest he can be competitive for a trainer who’s in red hot form at present winning with 5 of her last 13 runners.

 

J’AI FROID 1 point win @ 9/1 888Sport

 

Haydock 2.05

Six go to post or the 3m 58 yds Rendlesham Hurdle. Last years winner Third Wind had to shoulder a 6lb penalty here but his trainer Hughie Morrison has his team in top shape so can’t be ruled out. Also shouldering a 6lb penalty is the Olly Murphy runner Thomas Darby who’s the best in at these weights having won the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury in November. The only mare in the race is Molly Olly’s Wishes who also has to carry a 6lb penalty. Dan Skelton’s eight year old is unbeaten in two attempts at three miles and arrives here following a win in a grade two at Ascot in January. I’ll take here to beat her five rivals.

 

MOLLY OLLYS WISHES 1 point win @ 9/4 William Hill

 

Ascot 2.25

A competitive ten runner 3 mile handicap chase where cases can be made for the majority of these. The current favourite is Fiddlerontheroof who we haven’t seen since finishing runner up in the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury in November. He must have a decent chance but has to give weight all round and his price is rather skinny at around 11/4. Ask Me Early is a progressive chaser who’s won 5 of his last 7 starts but this is his second preference and all being well goes to Wincanton for a weaker race. Venetia Williams string is in terrific form and she saddles bottom weight Hold That Taught who’s a lively outsider but the horse that catches my eye is the Henry Daly trained Fortescue. He’s kept good handicap company in his last two starts, finishing runner up to Four Star Getaway at Kempton and a decent third to Royale Pagaille in the Peter Marsh at Haydock. With conditions to suit he looks a good each way bet.

 

FORTESCUE 1 point each way @ 11/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Haydock 2.40

This year’s William Hill Grand National Trial Handicap Chase has attracted eleven runners and will be a severe stamina test run over 3m 4F 97yds on very testing ground.

Secret Reprieve ran a lot better than his finishing position would suggest in this year’s Welsh National and the handicapper has kindly dropped him a couple of pounds. He’ll love both trip and ground and looks the one to beat for Evan Williams and Adam Wedge.

Teenager Blaklion has found a new leash of life this season and has absolutely bolted up here twice this term. The handicapper has however taken his revenge and pushed him back up the handicap. He too mind will love conditions. Confirmed mudlark and Haydock specialist Bristol De Mai shoulders top weight here and wouldn’t be totally out of it and the same can be said about last years winner Lord Du Mesnil, who can race today off of only a one pound higher mark. Sam Brown trained by the very much in form Anthony Honeyball is another out and out staying mudlark and ran his best race for a while last time out in the Peter Marsh here when pushing the smart Royale Pagaille all the way. A tough race but Secret Reprieve looks well handicapped still and can take the winners prize.

 

SECRET REPRIEVE 2 points win @ 3/1 William Hill

 

Ascot 3.00

A competitive thirteen runner handicap hurdle run over 2m 3F 58yds with Easyland heading the weights. He showed nothing last time and is easily dismissed here. A warm favourite here in the Sam Thomas trained Good Risk At All who will be very hard to beat having been backed in from a s big as 5/1 during the week. He followed up a 6L second to the smart Jonbon by running Donald McCain’s Barrichello to a neck on his handicap debut at Warwick. Given four weeks to get over that race and with a rise of just 3lb he can take this with Charlie Deutsch doing the steering. Paul Nicholls is back in better form now and his Cap Du Mathan maybe the biggest threat to the selection. He came back from a 714 day absence to easily win at Taunton last month and as long as he doesn’t ‘bounce’ should be thereabouts despite a 9lb rise in the weights. Zacony Rebel, a winner of two novice hurdles this season for up and coming trainer Toby Lawes, is another with claims but this should be all about Good Risk To All.

 

GOOD RISK TO ALL 3 points win @ 2/1 William Hill

 

Wincanton 3.20

A small but select field of four go to post for the Kingwell Hurdle run over 1m 7F 50 yds of the Somerset track. With Faivoir coming back from fencing and Llandinabo Lad having a stone to find this looks a match between last years winner Goshen and Adagio. Goshen was ultra impressive in this contest a year ago but isn’t always the most straight forward although to be fair to Gary Moore’s six year old did nothing wrong when winning at Sandown last time. I’m not sure I can fully trust him especially at the likely odds so the bet here has to be the David Pipe trained Adagio. He’s not been seen since an excellent second in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham back in November. He was a smart four year old and his trainer was making all the right sounds in the trade paper earlier in the week so I’ll take him to win and throw his hat into the Champion Hurdle picture against Honeysuckle.

 

ADAGIO 3 points win @ 11/8 William Hill

 

 

Ascot 3.38

A decent turnout for this year’s renewal of the Betfair Ascot Chase, a grade 1 contest run over 2m 5F. Irish raider Fakir D’oudairies has has the mis-fortune to bump into Allaho on his last two outings and is officially the best horse in the field. He sets the standard here. Dashel Drasher has won four of his five starts at Ascot including this contest last year and is another with claims. Venetia Williams has her string in such fine form that her runner here Fanion D’Estruval has to be given plenty of respect with Charlie Deutsch taking over from Lucy Turner. Two For Gold looks overpriced on his recent short head defeat of Dashel Drasher at Lingfield receiving 6lb and could also make his presence felt. Paul Nicholls’ Saint Calvados hasn’t been seen since a credible third in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day and the drop back in trip looks likely to suit. He looks the biggest danger to Fakir D’oudairies who’s the one to beat.

 

FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES 2 points win @ 5/2 William Hill

 

A healthy profit of over 14 points with three winners. 

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Trotter

Trotter

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Posted

4 out of 8 in my grade races above ....... ends the day in profit despite a couple of odds on winners

1 out of 2 earlier in the week when I first did this ..... also finished in profit

Might make this my thing for a while ........ not too many races (until we get to the Festivals !) and obviously you're looking at the better class horses and races that you'd probably want to watch anyway with or without betting

Maybe warm up with the jumps for an assault on the Flat Pattern races starting in March

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The Equaliser

The Equaliser

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Going for a more open Trixie today with a @richard-westwoodstyle singles bets in one of the races.

3.00 Asc Zacony Rebel 9/2

3.38 Asc Fakir D'oudairies 5/2

4.10 Asc Art Of Diplomacy 4/1

1 x 2 pt win Trixie = poss return 80.23 pts

Singles bet

4.10 Asc Guerlain De Vaux 8/1, Glencassly 9/1 and Atakan 9/1 = 3 x 1 pt win bets (Have left out Imphal because of "going" conditions but no surprise if it wins)

Did consider the 3.00 at Ascot for this type of bet but I don't like Good Risk At All in the race and it looks very dangerous to leave it out

Anyway 5 pts risked in total

Good luck to all but caution is needed I believe today

RESULTS UPDATE

Zacony Rebel ran no sort of race, should have gone with the Timeform star-rated horse but didn't fancy it.  Art Of Diplomacy was beaten by an unexpected outsider which happens.  I had two nonrunners in the race hence a total loss today of 3 points.  MTD = -40.55 YTD - 113.57.

I will stick with the more open races in future for a Trixie and up to 3/4 other selections in one or more races.  My short-priced Trixies are not rewarding my efforts so this new angle may help.

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