US Open 2020

[liquidglass]

46 minutes ago, Tobulas said:

Mladenovic losing from 6:1 5:1 up.. what a joke 

I just realised that she could make 3 or 4 times more than she earned from that loss by backing herself to lose at that point. The bookies would have been crying all the way to the bank. Maybe they are. Hard to believe that it was not deliberate. That loss there requires lamination!

[darko08]

Ok, Riske is being completely humiliated by Ann Li

[liquidglass]

Berretini vs Humbert

I see these two as major shareholders in the future of this game as time goes on. I really cannot get my head around how Berretini has arrived so short a favorite considering that he holds no outstanding advantage over this foe. In fact Humbert leads the head to head 1-0. The bookies could tender this half baked fact that Berretini is at no8 compared to Humbert at no 42. I note that Humbert is actually two years younger and I think that equates well on the progressive curve. Too many juicy options on this one. For big stakes Humbert to win a set at 4/9 looks decent enough. A more robust bet can also be taken for medium stakes @Bet365 Humbert to win 2 sets 6/5. I am really relying on the quality of mustard that will come off that Humbert lefty serve to bring this bet in. Taking into account the kind of year this has been, a lot of surprises are expected here at the US open. I believe that Humbert has the right credentials. Good luck all!

Edited September 3, 2020 by liquidglass

[CzechPunter]

Jan-Lennard Struff (+2.5 sets) to beat Novak Djokovic at 3.08 with Pinnacle

Struff managed to get a set off Djokovic earlier this year in the Australian Open and I don't see why he's above 3.00 to do the same here. I don't think that he has a legitimate shot at winning, I'm not sure he's there mentally, but he's playing well and Djokovic has been dropping sets recently, might even want to take a breather somewhere if he goes down a break. It's mostly about the odds, though, 3.08 for a set is just too much, I'd have this at 2.50 or so.

[liquidglass]

Raonic Vs Posposil

I  think that there is a lot about Raonic's that still leads one into believing that he stills flatters to deceive. He looks more or less like a beautifully grilled brownish scrumptious piece of chicken only to take a bite to discover that its not properly cooked on the inside. Oh yes, I will admit that his game has drastically improved from what it was before at serve-bot mode. Now there is a new intensity in his shot-making, ferocity and tenacity to stay in points. Looks like he has recently purchased a new pair of Canadian balls that are currently serving him well. I just felt that after going up a set over Djokovic in Cincinnati and failing to take the match, it was a reminder that he might just still be orbiting as opposed to actually moving forward.

On the other hand Pospisil's career has really been up and down plagued by injury over the last many years but the talent has always been there. He currently leads the head to head at 4-3 and interestingly enough won the very last encounter in Antwerp in 2018 in straight sets. In those 7 meetings Pospisil has only failed twice to win a set which brings me to the possible viable options. Pospisil to win a set at bet365 is 5/6 which seems super juicy. Then there is the possibility as has happened many times before in a typical match scenario that he just might not be able to get a mini-break in any tiebreak and go down 0-3. The best option will then be over 37.5 total games @8/11. it means that this match at least can end in three sets and go over 37.5 games. It is certainly worth a try.

Edited September 3, 2020 by liquidglass

[delfino]

Seems that Raonic can beat any player except when he plays against top 3. For a reason, he can not afford to adjust to circumstances. So, it is impossible for him to win a slam, therefore, and after i noticed how he choked in front of Djokovic, no chance to place any bet supporting him with my money. 

Very good choice Pospisil to win at least a set.

[Torque]

Two for me today, both in the ATP.

0.5pts Vasek Pospisil to beat Milos Raonic @ 5.50 Bet365

Following on from the theme on here that Pospisil is worth supporting in some way against Raonic, I'm going to go further and back him to win. The stake is small as it's not likely to happen, but I give Pospisil a better chance than these odds suggest. He's been able to beat Raonic in the past and has always been competitive, and with a good chance of long sets and tie-breaks the least that should happen is this goes past three sets and then we're into the kind of territory where Raonic could struggle physically.

2pts Roberto Carballes-Baena to beat Jeffrey John Wolf @ 3.75 Bet365

I get why Wolf is the favourite given that Carballes-Baena prefers clay, but I don't think he should be this big a favourite. He played another clay-courter in the last round in Pella and was taken to four sets, so that's the least Carballes-Baena should be able to achieve especially after he beat Feliciano in the last round. That was a good win considering Feliciano is a good hard-court player and Carballes-Baena can use his extra experience to get another win against a player who is relatively untested at this level.

[vvararu]

Muguruza - today's bomba numero uno. Who else?

[CzechPunter]

I'm just wondering what Pospisil's new player's association would say about his "injury" ???.

[mdlp]

madison keys likely to fall today. her opponent is almost a 7:1 dog. im in for $500 i have watched bolsolva and she is legit...she easily took down an in-form teichmann in last round completely under the radar.

[Torque]

1 minute ago, mdlp said:

madison keys likely to fall today. her opponent is almost a 7:1 dog. im in for $500 i have watched bolsolva and she is legit...she easily took down an in-form teichmann in last round completely under the radar.

I don't think I'd go as far as to say Keys is likely to fall today. She could lose - any player can and from any position (just ask Mladenovic) but most likely she will win and that's because she plays her best tennis on hard and she has a good record at this tournament. Bolsolva did get a good win against Teichmann but scratch beneath the surface and you'll find Teichmann has a poor record on hard courts - with the exception of last week. I'd be far more likely to go against Keys in this match on the basis she can be inconsistent, rather than any belief that Bolsova can beat her if she brings her best tennis to the court. Anyway, best of luck @mdlp 

[mdlp]

agree to disagree and thanks!

[darko08]

4 minutes ago, mdlp said:

madison keys likely to fall today. her opponent is almost a 7:1 dog. im in for $500 i have watched bolsolva and she is legit...she easily took down an in-form teichmann in last round completely under the radar.

I dont think so. I watched that match. Bolsova played like a pusher and Teichmann became completely crazy after losing the TB in the first set, giving to the spaniard a lot of free points. I did not watch Keys but she conceded 0 break points against Babos (6-1, 6-1). I know Babos is a mess but Bolsova is a claycourter and she has done nothing remarkable at this level. I expect an easy win for Keys. Anyway, GL, I expect to be wrong.

[mdlp]

i could beat babos and im a 4.0 come on!!

[Larkin22]

Is there something about Sloane Stephens that I'm missing? I mean I wouldn't make her favourites but shes still at 40+/1 to win, I'd have her much lower, closer to 15/20's at the most. She can ebat nearly anyone on a good day, from what i've seen so far I think she'll beat Serena.

[Torque]

You might be on to something there @Larkin22 

Stephens is being priced up on her form outside the big tournaments, which has been pretty dismal the last couple of years. She seems to come alive at the slams though, where her record is much better. Her issue seems to be one of motivation, which she certainly isn't going to be lacking here. I wouldn't be surprised if she made the latter stages and she can certainly beat Serena.

Edited September 3, 2020 by Torque

[darko08]

Ann Li to beat Kerber at 3.00 with bet365

I'm still impress with how Li destroyed Riske yesterday. The young player took the lead on almost every single point. Riske tried to change that but nothing could do against her. She served quite well and only conceded 1 BP in the whole match, which is really impressive considering the player she was facing. I expected Kerber to win her first 2 matches here (as I said before, I wouldn't be suprised if she reaches the SF's) but she has struggled a little bit (more than I expected). If she would have lost the TB of the second set against Friedsam the match would have turned in a 50-50 match, I think. It's hard to know if Li can repeat a performance like that, but if she does and Kerber adopt a defensive style against her she can suffer more than the odds suggest.

Jessica Pegula (+4.5 Games) to beat Petra Kvitova at 1.75 with 888

First big test for Kvitova. She will have to face an in-form player who has demonstrated to have the weapons to beat big hitting players. In Cincinatti she won against Anisimova, Brady and Sabalenka, which is quite impressive. Kvitova suffered against Kozlova. The ukranian was serving to win the first set and she even had a SP. I definitely expect Pegula to trouble Kvitova more than the odds suggest.

Magda Linette (+5.5 Games) to beat Kontaveit at 1.72 with bet365

Maybe this one seems a little bit crazy considering how Kontaveit is playing but I think her favoritism is exaggerated. Linette's game style fits perfectly in these courts. The last year she won the Bronx Open coming from the qualy (Kanepi, Sasnovich, Muchova, Siniakova and Giorgi). She has suffered against Inglis and Kovinic (especially against the last one), but from what I have seen about her match against Kovinic, both players did really well. Kontaveit suffered against Collins (at least, in the first set..), which in some way was a little bit expected. She had an easy second round (Juvan) but now I expect a harder match for her.

Novak Djokovic vs Struff Over 29.5 Games at 2.06 with 888

Ok, I edit to add my last one for the next 2 days. Actually, I have nothing much to say for this one. As I said before, Struff has been impressive these days. He has been serving really well, playing very aggressive and beating the ball with a lot of power and accuracy. The last time they played was in Cincinatti and Struff only won 4 games on that match and that's the reason why the line is so low. I really think Struff can do so much better than he did in Cincinatti and, as Czech said, Struff took a set from Nole in the AO and I think he can repeat that here, where the surface is quicker than there. Nole has demonstrated that he's not in the same level he was before. He lost the first set against Edmund, which makes me think he can lost another one here against a player who comes in better form than Edmund. This line can be covered even with a 3-0 so let's see if Struff can trouble Nole more than the odds suggest.

Edited September 4, 2020 by darko08

[liquidglass]

1 hour ago, darko08 said:

Ann Li to beat Kerber at 3.00 with bet365

I'm still impress with how Li destroyed Riske yesterday. The young player took the lead on almost every single point. Riske tried to change that but nothing could do against her. She served quite well and only conceded 1 BP in the whole match, which is really impressive considering the player she was facing. I expected Kerber to win her first 2 matches here (as I said before, I wouldn't be suprised if she reaches the SF's) but she has struggled a little bit (more than I expected). If she would have lost the TB of the second set against Friedsam the match would have turned in a 50-50 match, I think. It's hard to know if Li can repeat a performance like that, but if she does and Kerber adopt a defensive style against her she can suffer more than the odds suggest.

Jessica Pegula (+4.5 Games) to beat Petra Kvitova at 1.75 with 888

First big test for Kvitova. She will have to face an in-form player who has demonstrated to have the weapons to beat big hitting players. In Cincinatti she won against Anisimova, Brady and Sabalenka, which is quite impressive. Kvitova suffered against Kozlova. The ukranian was serving to win the first set and she even had a SP. I definitely expect Pegula to trouble Kvitova more than the odds suggest.

i have a very good feeling that Li will come against a road block in Kerber. It is very evident that Kerber is beginning to motor. I have seen her play and now know for sure. Many players came here with different objectives post covid. Kerber has come to really try to win this thing.

Have you seen Pegula lately? She is strapped up to the hilt and looking tired. She is never going to beat Kvitova in that state. Kvitova is another one with a genuine outside chance.I do not see her staying within 4.5 games handicap. Expect her to stop trying somewhere into the second set.

Edited September 4, 2020 by liquidglass

[darko08]

@liquidglass Yep, I have seen those straps but.. ¿how many players are carrying straps? I have seen part of the third set and i did not appreciate any kind of physical issue reflected on her game. Pospisil required medical attention but then he won the next 3 sets (I did not watch the match after that but I'm sure he showed no signs of physical issues). Now i was watching Serena playing against Gasparyan. The russian was carrying straps but she has played a really decent second set, looking physically better than Serena who wasn't carrying straps. The point of what im trying to say is that players are cheaters. I'm not saying that Pegula has nothing (it's impossible to know for sure) but i haven't seen her game affected). Obviously, Kvitova can play a good match and destroy Pegula because she's so much better player but I rarely have seen her playing well an entire match (Inconsistency and physical issues have private her from winning more things). Pegula has good results against big hitters and I expect Kvitova to have her usual ups and downs on her game (i hope). I know Kerber will be better with every round she passes but i saw her quite vulnerable in her second set against Friedsam. In her first match she did not play good at all, which is completely understandable considering it was her first match after a lot of time (I'm sure we will agree that Alja was awful, as I expected). So, I'm still waiting to see the best Kerber and I'm not sure if only 2 matches will be enough to have an "easy" match against Li, who played an amazing match against Riske. Let's see.

btw... Serena barely can breath after been playing 1.30 h..? What will happen when a player take her into a third set?

[lelit]

Hard to understand odd 3.5 on Garcia against Brady? (bet365)

Edited September 4, 2020 by lelit

[darko08]

44 minutes ago, lelit said:

Hard to understand odd 3.5 on Garcia against Brady? (bet365)

Brady is one of the most in-form players right now.

[liquidglass]

3 hours ago, darko08 said:

Brady is one of the most in-form players right now.

Agree fully, however I still think Brady is priced way too short on Garcia. I even feel that the Garcia game is a more robust version of the Brady game (precise redirection and easy power) Taking the alternative handicap on paddy power is a superb idea on big stakes. I have gone really big and safe to take Garcia with a +5.5 handicap @4/11. I call that a bet with an airbag included. That handicap should be able to resist any sort of impact in the event of a serious accident. Good luck folks!!!

Edited September 4, 2020 by liquidglass

[liquidglass]

Anybody know anything about Kostyuk? I have been wanting to watch her play live. I am not too sure how she will match up with a player like Naomi though

[lelit]

You are exaggerating a bit with Brady's potential, her only good victory was defeating Gauff, while Garcia destroyed Karoline Pliskova. I am concerned that this high odd could be linked to the quarantine of many French players (Paire's contacts); Mladenovic could not leave the room, only play matches. I am also afraid that this strange tournament is not very important for many players.

Edited September 4, 2020 by lelit

[lelit]

Vickery 2.62 leading 1.0 in the match against Swiatek, is an intriguing way to become a millionaire . Iga had 3 set balls and was leading 5-0 in the tie break, despite she lost the set. I wrote about her currently poor game; Vickery is a weak player but Swiatek is out of form and mentally absent.

Edited September 4, 2020 by lelit

[Robinnho]

Putintseva to beat Sansnovich @1.70

Better form, better ranked and leading H2H all pointing to this win.

[darko08]

4 hours ago, lelit said:

You are exaggerating a bit with Brady's potential, her only good victory was defeating Gauff, while Garcia destroyed Karoline Pliskova. I am concerned that this high odd could be linked to the quarantine of many French players (Paire's contacts); Mladenovic could not leave the room, only play matches. I am also afraid that this strange tournament is not very important for many players.

I have watched her and i can tell you that she's in the best form of her life. In Lexington she won without dropping a single set: Heather Watson (6-2, 6-1), Linette (6-2, 6-3), Bouzkova (6-1, 6-2), Gauff (6-2, 6-4) and Teichmann (6-3, 6-4). After that, she lost in the first round in 2 sets in Cincinatti (probably she had no interest after winning in Lexington and decided to rest for the US Open..). Here, she has destroyed Blinkova (6-3, 6-2) and Bellis (6-1, 6-2). Before the pandemic she was already in a big form, beating players like Muguruza, Svitolina and Barty. She is the favorite player to win the 1st quarter right now. 2020 Brady's record: 30-11
What have done Garcia this year? In Auckland she lost in 2 sets against Bouchard after winning against Townsend (in 3 sets). In Hobart she lost in the first round against Cabrera. In the AO she lost in the second round against Jabeur after winning against Brengle (in 3 sets). In Saint Petersburg she lost in the first round against Ferro. In Doha she lost in the first round against Pera. In Lyon she lost in the third round against Van Uytvanck after winning against Minnen and Bonaventure. In Cincinatti she lost in the second round against Azarenka after winning against Stephens. Here, she has won against Paolini and Pliskova. 2020 Garcia's record: 7-7
I have been waiting a lot of time to see the best García again but winning a couple of matches here means nothing. I did not watch her match against Pliskova but I remember putting the match at the end of the second set and the commentator said something like: "Well, Pliskova is saving an embarrasing performance in this set, at least...". It would be interesting to know if Pliskova had a very bad day or García truly played a great match (as I said, i only watched the end of the second set). Brady is currently better player than García, she has a better serve and a more powerful forehand. Is García underestimated for this one? If we take in consideration the current form: No. But if we take in consideration "the ceiling" of both players García is underestimated. That being said, I have to say that a +5,5 handicap sounds good..

[liquidglass]

I am very impressed with the game and attitude of Kostyuk. She definitely is the real McCoy. Good feisty shot maker who believes in herself. The only way is up baby!

[South_African_Punter]

Mannarino to win a set - 1.72 @ Sportingbet

Sascha has dropped a set in his two previous matches and I feel there is a good chance he will drop at least a set (if not lose the match) to Mannarino who has impressed me in his recent matches.

[darko08]

26 minutes ago, South_African_Punter said:

Mannarino to win a set - 1.72 @ Sportingbet

Sascha has dropped a set in his two previous matches and I feel there is a good chance he will drop at least a set (if not lose the match) to Mannarino who has impressed me in his recent matches.

Are the players who had contact with Paire still isolated? Because Mannarino was one of them. The french players who had contact (Mladenovic, Gasquet, Barrere and Vasselin) are all out of the tournament, except for Mladenovic on doubles. Zverev looked really good against Anderson and Nakashima, 2 dangerous players. Be careful with this one