US Open 2020

[CzechPunter]

[Torque]

Pella and Dellien are in quarantine after a physio they share got a positive test.

[kuklachert]

Would anyone be interested to participate in a betting competition for US open?

Let's say everyone starts with 1000 play money units, places bets on whatever outcomes (match winner, tournament winner, over/under etc.) and whoever ends up with most units after the US open final is declared the winner. I would handle participants/bets if there is enough interest.

[Torque]

Nishikori has returned another positive test. Looking like he'll be forced to miss the US Open.

[Torque]

Not long now until this starts, so I'm starting to think about who might win it. For the men, it's hard to look past Djokovic especially with no Nadal or Federer in attendance and for the women I have absolutely no idea - it could be any one out of about ten and I'd imagine the draw will have a big part to play. One player who definitely will not be winning it - famous last words - is Serena and that's regardless of withdrawals and despite how high up she is in the betting. I'd love to see her win it because I think she deserves to have the Slam record for her career's work, but I just can't see it. 

Since the tour restarted she's been absolutely nowhere near the standard required to win a Slam from what I've seen. She's been struggling massively against players she would be expected to beat easily if she was on top of her game. She should have lost today against Rus in what was an unbelievable performance given what you expect from a player of her stature against an average opponent. She took the first set in a tie-break, immediately went a break up at the start of the second and at that point you'd expect her to put her foot down and win with ease. Instead, she got broken twice in a row on the way to losing the second set. Like the second set, she got ahead early in the third and then served for the match. At that point she got broken and then got broken again which saw Rus serving for the match. Somehow she clawed the break back before racing away in the deciding tie-break. She said afterwards that she thought she'd played well but deep down she must know she was nowhere near good enough, just like in her last match when she lost to Rogers - another player she would have expected to beat without too much trouble. She said after that match that she knows she can play better but I didn't see any signs of improvement against Rus and it makes you wonder; if she thinks she can play better then why isn't she.

There's no way she should be losing to Rogers and struggling to beat Rus if her game is working well, and if the talk is right that she's got a 'new and improved' serve - I've also heard something about a new racquet - she might want to think about going back to the way things were. Being broken by a player as limited as Rus as many times as she was should set alarm bells ringing in her camp about her chances at the US Open. If her serve isn't firing, if she isn't getting easy points from it then she's in big trouble because once it gets into a rally that's a definite leveller for any opponent. It took about three hours to get the win today and she needs to avoid matches that require that much effort and intensity if she's going to stand a chance at the US Open. It's not like it can even be written off as one sub-par performance - she's needed three sets for all her wins since the restart plus another troubling pattern has emerged which is her winning the first set of a match and still struggling. I'm sure other players will have noticed that which will mean they'll still feel they're in with a chance even at a set down. It used to be that going a set down to Serena would cause a player to lose heart and make winning that much easier for her, but I think those days are gone.

It could be worth going against her if she wins the first set of her matches at the US Open and I'll certainly be looking at that, but in short if you're a recreational punter who's just dropping by to get an idea of what to bet on then it might be best to find someone else to back. Serena may be the best known player and she may be the best to ever play the game, but she's not a good bet in my opinion based on recent form and going back a few years as well.

[CzechPunter]

Thanks for the summary @Torque, I agree!

[Larkin22]

Yep totally agree @Torque I layed Serena for the US Open before her loss to Sakkari, not that it affected the odds that much.

Mens its hard to find value as I can't see it being anyone but Djok so will avoid the outrights.

For the women, Osaka when on form is the best female player on tour no-one can live with her, I always fancy Giorgi to cause an upset along the way with her raw hitting but never enough to get through a tournament. So for now I have no other thoughts, will wait to see how the first round goes. But for now, laid Serena and backed Osaka.

[DrO]

The draws are out
 

 

[DrO]

"The new Laykold courts have a Court Pace Rating (CPR) of ~ 43. A CPR between 40 and 44 is “medium fast,” while a 45 CPR is “fast.”.

https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/SB-Blogs/SBJ-Unpacks/2020/08/26.aspx

 

 

 

[DrO]

Novak was given a soft draw. Isner could be a possible problem in R4 and then Tsitsipas in semifinal. Other part of draw is way trickier.

[bet4fun]

On 8/25/2020 at 7:02 AM, Torque said:

Not long now until this starts, so I'm starting to think about who might win it. For the men, it's hard to look past Djokovic especially with no Nadal or Federer in attendance and for the women I have absolutely no idea - it could be any one out of about ten and I'd imagine the draw will have a big part to play. One player who definitely will not be winning it - famous last words - is Serena and that's regardless of withdrawals and despite how high up she is in the betting. I'd love to see her win it because I think she deserves to have the Slam record for her career's work, but I just can't see it. 

Since the tour restarted she's been absolutely nowhere near the standard required to win a Slam from what I've seen. She's been struggling massively against players she would be expected to beat easily if she was on top of her game. She should have lost today against Rus in what was an unbelievable performance given what you expect from a player of her stature against an average opponent. She took the first set in a tie-break, immediately went a break up at the start of the second and at that point you'd expect her to put her foot down and win with ease. Instead, she got broken twice in a row on the way to losing the second set. Like the second set, she got ahead early in the third and then served for the match. At that point she got broken and then got broken again which saw Rus serving for the match. Somehow she clawed the break back before racing away in the deciding tie-break. She said afterwards that she thought she'd played well but deep down she must know she was nowhere near good enough, just like in her last match when she lost to Rogers - another player she would have expected to beat without too much trouble. She said after that match that she knows she can play better but I didn't see any signs of improvement against Rus and it makes you wonder; if she thinks she can play better then why isn't she.

There's no way she should be losing to Rogers and struggling to beat Rus if her game is working well, and if the talk is right that she's got a 'new and improved' serve - I've also heard something about a new racquet - she might want to think about going back to the way things were. Being broken by a player as limited as Rus as many times as she was should set alarm bells ringing in her camp about her chances at the US Open. If her serve isn't firing, if she isn't getting easy points from it then she's in big trouble because once it gets into a rally that's a definite leveller for any opponent. It took about three hours to get the win today and she needs to avoid matches that require that much effort and intensity if she's going to stand a chance at the US Open. It's not like it can even be written off as one sub-par performance - she's needed three sets for all her wins since the restart plus another troubling pattern has emerged which is her winning the first set of a match and still struggling. I'm sure other players will have noticed that which will mean they'll still feel they're in with a chance even at a set down. It used to be that going a set down to Serena would cause a player to lose heart and make winning that much easier for her, but I think those days are gone.

It could be worth going against her if she wins the first set of her matches at the US Open and I'll certainly be looking at that, but in short if you're a recreational punter who's just dropping by to get an idea of what to bet on then it might be best to find someone else to back. Serena may be the best known player and she may be the best to ever play the game, but she's not a good bet in my opinion based on recent form and going back a few years as well.

this is serena's best chance and i think she should gracefully retire after this and not be greedy. when andreescu, bencic, halep and barty are playing they wont allow her much. svitolina as well.

[South_African_Punter]

I must say I'm tempted by the 11.0 on Thiem. Yeah I know he went out at the first round last year and was given a good beating by Krajinovic earlier this week but apparently the two show courts weren't used in the W&S Open this week and they tend to be slower than the outside courts. It is likely he will be allocated outside courses in the early part of the tournament but he shouldn't encounter any problems in the first few rounds. As #2 seed, he will then almost surely be assigned one of the show courts.

The other two considerations for the "anti-Djokovic" pick were Tsitipas but I don't view him as quite ready for a GS title and Medvedev has too few matches under his belt for me to be comfortable placing a bet on him.

Edited August 29, 2020 by South_African_Punter

[kuklachert]

On 8/20/2020 at 2:24 PM, kuklachert said:

Would anyone be interested to participate in a betting competition for US open?

Let's say everyone starts with 1000 play money units, places bets on whatever outcomes (match winner, tournament winner, over/under etc.) and whoever ends up with most units after the US open final is declared the winner. I would handle participants/bets if there is enough interest.

This post didn't get traction here, but I'll allow myself one more plug. The US Open tipping competition has been set up and has almost 20 tipsters as of now (primarily from reddit). If you want to participate and to measure your tipping performance against other gamblers, write me a private message and I'll share the link with you. I promise not to spam here any more and hope this post is still within the acceptable boundaries. Good luck everyone!

[delfino]

Serena must lose 10 kg minimum to win a slam again. I don't know if she keeps the same weight through ages, but now her legs looking too heavy because of getting older

To Lay Serena, is the bet of the year at betfair.

Sure money, just think how much you have in the bank, and lay Serena as your early Christmas gift.

FREE money for me, wish you to find backers at the most juicy price. Most of tennis backers don't know anything about tennis.

This is your chance! 

[CzechPunter]

Well, we are getting a Grand Slam after all – and chances are that we’re going to get another one soon after as well!

Looking at the US Open, it’s hard to be confident with one’s bets when it comes to those players that haven’t played since the coronavirus break and there’s certainly a case to be made for staying away from the first round in many match-us. I’ll be in the action, though, so let’s take a look at some of the matches.

Outright-wise, Djokovic is the big favourite in the men’s draw and that’s obviously right for many reasons. We did see him struggle in the warm-up event though and I don’t want to back him at this sort of odds no matter what. I liked Raonic, though, and I’ll be backing him to win his quarter.

On the women’s side of things, the bookmakers know that Williams isn’t such a big favourite as the media are making her out to be and there’s not much that I like honestly. Osaka has been surprising me lately with how good she is, but getting back-to-back events in such a short time frame will be tough. She’s also withdrawn from the finals as I’m writing this, so there’s that.

Now for the matches – I might add a few more later on, but, for now, I’ve got theses ones lined up. First, I’ve got Feliciano Lopez to win against Carballes Baena. The latter was pretty average on clay in Europe and the conditions in this US Open are quick enough to give Lopez a good advantage, especially given that he’s kept himself in some for during the coronavirus break. I’m taking the set handicap, as I’d reckon that RCB will win if he drags the match on and on.

Next, I’ve got Dennis Novak beating Alejandro Davidovich Fokina for largely the same reasons. Novak can be great in quick conditions, Fokina can’t – and he’s also been disappointing me for quite some time now. I had him down as a big talent, but he’s been struggling to establish himself on the main tour.

Then, I like Corentin Moutet to beat the underperforming Jiri Vesely. Vesely has some wins under his belt and that’s fine, but not against the level of Moutet and the Frenchman has been keeping himself busy on hard in the off-season against top-class players, which should do him a world of good here.

I also like the odds for Bedene to beat Ruusuvuori, as I liked his performances in New York before that and especially his win over Fritz. That was a long match in which he stayed collected throughout and was serving really well.

And, as a small double, I’ll be taking Christian Garin to beat Ulises Blanch together with Ricardas Bernakis to beat Federico Gaio. Both are way better and have played on hard recently.

On the women’s side of things, I’ve got Pera to beat Diyas. She’s been the surprise package for me since the restart and she even has mental resilience after facing Serena and doing well, while Diyas has played just a single match against Li and lost with no resistance whatsoever.

I also like Golubic to beat Lapko. She’s got a good game for faster conditions and she has one of the better serves on the WTA, if that can be even said. Moreover, Lapko hasn’t played since March and has just three wins this year against poor players. Golubic has been keeping herself busy, on the other hand, and can make an impact here.

Milos Raonic to win the 4th quarter at 5.50 with Unibet

Feliciano Lopez (-1.5 sets) to beat Roberto Carballes Baena at 2.07 with Sbobet

Dennis Novak (-1.5 sets) to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at 2.03 with Sbobet

Corentin Moutet to beat Jiri Vesely at 1.74 with Pinnacle

Aljaz Bedene to beat Emil Ruusuvuori at 1.84 with Pinnacle

Christian Garin (vs. Blanch) + Ricardas Berankis (vs. Gaio) at 1.70 with Bet365

Bernarda Pera (-3.5) to beat Zarina Diyas at 1.84 with Pinnacle

Viktorija Golubic (-3.5) to beat Vera Lapko at 1.86 with Pinnacle

[mdlp]

Some great posts in here...I'm looking at some early matches and wondered about any thoughts on Bautista-agut vs Tennys Sangren at around -390. Normally I would think that's a high price to back but I actually think it is too cheap.  I cannot see many scenarios where Tennys can hang in a best out of 5 setter w a reliable rallier and grinder like Agut.  Am I missing something here?

[zohebbasha]

2 hours ago, mdlp said:

Some great posts in here...I'm looking at some early matches and wondered about any thoughts on Bautista-agut vs Tennys Sangren at around -390. Normally I would think that's a high price to back but I actually think it is too cheap.  I cannot see many scenarios where Tennys can hang in a best out of 5 setter w a reliable rallier and grinder like Agut.  Am I missing something here?

Guess they have taken into the fact that these are fast courts and Sandgren has a solid serve which can keep him alive during the match. But yes, have to agree with you, just don't see Sandgren having much of a say in the rallies against Agut. 

[lelit]

I agree with Delfino about Serena's chances, it should be added that without an audience they will be even smaller.

bet365: Serena Will Not Make The Quarter Finals: 1.8

I watched a few Swiatek's matches  (both doubles and singles), she had huge problems with serving and as a mega offensive player, devoid of tactical skills, this is very important lack in her game, therefore I doubt that she should a favorite in the match against Kudermatowa (2.2)

Edited August 30, 2020 by lelit

[darko08]

Daniel Evans to win his quarter at 23.00 with bet365

As Czech said, Raonic looks the smartest choice to win that quarter but i like Evans chances here. I see Evans better than Murray and FAA (potentials third rounds). Evans will face Thiem or Cilic in the fourth round. Thiem was demolished by Krajinovic and the conditions don't favour him. Cilic is far from his best form. Raonic and RBA are the 2 players I fear the most but that will be the QF match. 

Angelique Kerber to beat Alja Tomjlanovic at 1.72 with bet365

I know how Kerber comes here but having her at these odds against the Tomjlanovic it's just too juicy. The australian player has done very bad in her last two matches. She was destroyed by Putintseva (6-0, 6-4) in Lexington and lost in a three set match against Kudermetova in Cincinatti so she doesn't look at her best right now. 

I have to add some more things later.. I will edit this post to add them

[Torque]

10 hours ago, mdlp said:

Some great posts in here...I'm looking at some early matches and wondered about any thoughts on Bautista-agut vs Tennys Sangren at around -390. Normally I would think that's a high price to back but I actually think it is too cheap.  I cannot see many scenarios where Tennys can hang in a best out of 5 setter w a reliable rallier and grinder like Agut.  Am I missing something here?

I'll be leaving this one alone. As mentioned the court speed helps Sandgren, plus he seems to raise his level at the Slams - should have beaten Federer at the AO and has beaten plenty of good players in Slams recently. Also. Bautista Agut bombed out here last year against Kukushkin which was surprising as Kukushkin is as inconsistent as Bautista Agut is normally consistent. If he can beat Bautista Agut over five sets, Sandgren definitely can.

[mdlp]

1 hour ago, darko08 said:

Daniel Evans to win his quarter at 23.00 with bet365

As Czech said, Raonic looks the smartest choice to win that quarter but i like Evans chances here. I see Evans better than Murray and FAA (potentials third rounds). Evans will face Thiem or Cilic in the fourth round. Thiem was demolished by Krajinovic and the conditions don't favour him. Cilic is far from his best form. Raonic and RBA are the 2 players I fear the most but that will be the QF match. 

Angelique Kerber to beat Alja Tomjlanovic at 1.72 with bet365

I know how Kerber comes here but having her at these odds against the Tomjlanovic it's just too juicy. The australian player has done very bad in her last two matches. She was destroyed by Putintseva (6-0, 6-4) in Lexington and lost in a three set match against Kudermetova in Cincinatti so she doesn't look at her best right now. 

I have to add some more things later.. I will edit this post to add them

the issue w Kerber is that she hasn't played since the AO and Tomlianovic has actually gotten some recent matches in. Otherwise would be on kerber too.

[darko08]

@mdlp I know.. but the perspective of an "easy" draw should motivate her to go deep. She knows how it feels to win here and, as i said, Tomjlanovic is not at her best. She was destroyed by Putintseva (winning only 4 games against her) and then lost also in the first round against Kudermetova in Cincinatti. I dont expect Kerber having an easy match but even with that lack of matches she's the favorite one to me. Taking a look at the draw I wouldn't be suprised if Kerber reaches the SF's...

[mdlp]

1 hour ago, darko08 said:

@mdlp I know.. but the perspective of an "easy" draw should motivate her to go deep. She knows how it feels to win here and, as i said, Tomjlanovic is not at her best. She was destroyed by Putintseva (winning only 4 games against her) and then lost also in the first round against Kudermetova in Cincinatti. I dont expect Kerber having an easy match but even with that lack of matches she's the favorite one to me. Taking a look at the draw I wouldn't be suprised if Kerber reaches the SF's...

im not saying not to bet it, i guess im saying don't bet too much. i know that after a 3 month layoff myself during the pandemic i felt very very uncomfortable on the court. and practicing helped but i was still unprepared for my first official match where i was beat in straight sets by a guy i would beat today.

[CzechPunter]

Hi and welcome to the forum @zohebbasha!

[CzechPunter]

[matrixman]

Guys I really like De Minaur  to win his quarter at 21.00 .Obviously not in form.Who really is here.

 

As far as the women Sabalenka stands out to me .Yes its feast or famine but she def has the hitting power to beat anyone.

 

As far as the long shots..Rybakina ,Brady,Martic and Alexandrova

 

And what in the blue hell is Pironkova doing here? Back from purgatory?

[Torque]

Just one match bet for me so far and one outright, and I'll also put up some brief thoughts about some other matches in case that helps anyone out.

3pts Angelique Kerber to beat Ajla Tomljanovic @ 1.71 Betfair Exchange

I agree with what's been said so far about Kerber and she should have every chance at this tournament if she can hit the ground running. She could have got an easier first round draw than this, but I'm sure she'll see it as winnable. Tomljanovic hasn't played well since the restart and doesn't have much pedigree in the slams, and Kerber's steady style should get the job done against a player who can be very hit and miss. Kerber hasn't played since the AO so there's no way to gauge her form, but that's factored into the price and I'll take the risk. Prior to the lockdown she'd been struggling with injury and so a few months without any tennis should mean she's now in good physical condition. It could be that not playing for so many months is a good thing in her case, and if she can shake off the rust sooner rather than later against Tomljanovic I think she can make the next round.

2.5pts Novak Djokovic to win ATP US Open @ 1.91 Paddy Power

As I said previously, it's hard to look past Djokovic for the title in New York. He's just won the 'Cincinatti' Masters despite having physical problems in nearly every match and despite giving some of his opponents every chance to beat him. If he couldn't be beaten when he was so obviously vulnerable and at a tournament which wasn't a priority for him, I don't see how he loses here at a tournament he definitely cares about and when it's a best-of-five set format. There's only one player I can think of that could really push him and that's Medvedev, but otherwise the only way he doesn't win here is if he gets injured like last year.

 

 

There's a few matches where some prices jumped out at me and one of those is Tsitsipas v Ramos with Tsitsipas chalked up as a 1.01 favourite. It would obviously be a massive shock if Tsitsipas didn't progress and most likely he'll do it in straight sets, but it might be worth looking at the game handicap. Tsitsipas isn't the greatest on return and so maybe Ramos can keep it close enough to cover the +9.5 game line, and although I'm not confident enough to play I wouldn't be surprised if it happened.

I also think Anderson is worth backing on the handicaps against Sascha, who is still struggling mightily with his serve. That's something that Anderson never has any problems with, so I don't see why he can't push this to five sets or keep the match close by covering the +4.5 game line. I wouldn't put anyone off backing him on the match line either, but that's a higher price for a reason and so is less likely to come in. Add in Sascha's habit of playing long matches at the slams and I'll be surprised if he wins this easily.

Goffin looks vulnerable against Opelka as well and I can definitely see an upset there. Opelka is playing nicely right now and his big serve should make it very difficult for Goffin to break, so Opelka to take a couple of sets looks worth a play as well as the match line. The game line is skinny at +2.5 but should be covered if Opelka serves well and is able to take a set, which I think he will do as Goffin doesn't look to be in the best of form from what I've seen recently.

For the women, there's two matches that got my attention. Firstly, Gauff v Sevastova where Gauff looks a little short. She's coming here off a heavy first-round defeat to Sakkari in 'Cincinatti' and in Sevastova she'll be facing a player very similar to herself in terms of playing high-percentage tennis and keeping the ball in-play. Sevastova has a decent record here and plenty of experience and she'll run every ball down and keep the rallies going. The game line of +3.5 and the match line look good to me.

Finally, I think it could pay to go against Osaka. That's because she pulled out of the 'Cincinatti' final with a hamstring injury, and whilst the severity of it is unknown it's a quick turnaround and if it impedes her in the slightest then Doi might be able to pull off a shock. The match line is worth taking with a bookie that doesn't void retirements as you'd imagine Osaka will try to play no matter what, and the set line and +6.5 game line are also worth backing - even if Osaka is healthy she doesn't always win easily.

Edited August 31, 2020 by Torque

[darko08]

Paolo Lorenzi to win at least 1 set vs. Brandon Nakashima at 1.72 with bet365

Hubert Hurkacz (-5.5 Games) vs Peter Gojowczyk at 1.74 with 888

Both players have played several matches during the pandemic and I think the young american is overrated in this one (1.22...?). I expect some resistance from Lorenzi and I think he can trouble Nakashima more than the odds suggest.

Gojo has played all his exhibition matches during the pandemic on clay (including some loses against very poor players). The german is out of form so I expect a "comfortable" win from Hurkacz.

[liquidglass]

21 hours ago, mdlp said:

the issue w Kerber is that she hasn't played since the AO and Tomlianovic has actually gotten some recent matches in. Otherwise would be on kerber too.

I think the real issue is not about about Kerber's lack of match practice. Some players can come back from a long break and just continue where they left of. Some cant. The real problem is that Tomljanovic may not be able to beat whatever version of kerber shows up.

[DrO]

I completely agree with Torque over Zverev - Anderson and Goffin - Opelka matches.
So,my choice is going to be:

Anderson K. - Zverev A. over 3.5 sets @1.70 (local bookie)
Opelka R. - Goffin D. over 3.5 sets @1.60 (local bookie)

Also,i'm going with one match which is my original pick:
Krajinovic F. - Ymer M. under 35.5 games @1.90 (local bookie)

You never know with Filip Krajinovic,but i hope he can deliver an easy victory here. He was very good last week in Cincinnati. Yes,he struggled with Caruso in first march,but then he was briliant against both Thiem and Fucsovics. He even served for the match against Raonic. Ymer debuts in the main draw of US Open. Swede player lost to Harris last week,and also lost to Krajinovic in Montpellier early this year by 61 61. Like i said..it's not easy to trust Krajinovic,but with this line and odds i'm willing to take risk

GL