Tennis Tips - March 4 - March 10

[Grass Cash]

Good luck ape, no idea

[apeman666]

5 minutes ago, money44 said:

Good luck ape, no idea

Are u raigin or u going to answer question? Wu or noo 

[apeman666]

Hugo dellien sky bet 1.67

guy in form

[ogii55]

Guys, Andujar is very classy player on clay. When he is in form, he is capable to beat Top 20 players with offensive display, not waiting them to make mistakes or not to have a day. Wu is a fighter, but I don't think he will be capable to beat Pablo, which career was almost destroyed with so many injuries and surgeries. I would skip this match. Yeah, Wu always has a chance to take the match, but there is a syndrome that I am trying to heal in myself. To bet once again on a player that brought you money in his next match.

[apeman666]

7 minutes ago, ogii55 said:

Guys, Andujar is very classy player on clay. When he is in form, he is capable to beat Top 20 players with offensive display, not waiting them to make mistakes or not to have a day. Wu is a fighter, but I don't think he will be capable to beat Pablo, which career was almost destroyed with so many injuries and surgeries. I would skip this match. Yeah, Wu always has a chance to take the match, but there is a syndrome that I am trying to heal in myself. To bet once again on a player that brought you money in his next match.

Thank you. I thought when he was serving for that last match at 5-4 he couldn’t do it. Andujar step up. Just a small bet on the boy then 

[Sir Puntalot]

1 hour ago, apeman666 said:

To be honest I hate the “value” picks on underdogs generally. If there’s some one you don’t think is going to win but there’s “value” in it I don’t get. But you nailed it with this guy cause reading your right up I believed u believed he was going to win. I love information, I don’t always follow tips. U always go with own gut. Do u think tho one more time? 

 

 

 

 

It's a good point and I'll expand on it, in a general way.

Let's say Nadal is 1.01 to beat a player ranked 20 in the world - would you back him? Probably not, because it's 1.01 right? What about 1.20? 1.30? 1.50? There comes a time when every bet is backable because the odds are in your opinion, larger than they should be. The real skill in betting is bank management and discipline.  

Same applies to backing underdogs. Of course you have to think they will win, but again, would you back the player ranked 20 at 5000/1? There is always a line and it's actually the odds that dictate whether you should bet or not.

[CzechPunter]

@Sir Puntalot That's what I am generally aiming for, but come on, Nadal to beat Berdych is sweet value at 1.01 .

[apeman666]

2 minutes ago, Sir Puntalot said:

It's a good point and I'll expand on it, in a general way.

Let's say Nadal is 1.01 to beat a player ranked 20 in the world - would you back him? Probably not, because it's 1.01 right? What about 1.20? 1.30? 1.50? There comes a time when every bet is backable because the odds are in your opinion, larger than they should be. The real skill in betting is bank management and discipline.  

Same applies to backing underdogs. Of course you have to think they will win, but again, would you back the player ranked 20 at 5000/1? There is always a line and it's actually the odds that dictate whether you should bet or not.

I like under dogs, there’s sometimes a good reason to bet on them. That’s all speculative 

ar short odds guy like berdych last night I never get..think 1.17. But u get albot at 1.50. Guy on form. I don’t care how short the price is am getting at. I just want to hear more confident bets 

[Sir Puntalot]

4 minutes ago, apeman666 said:

I like under dogs, there’s sometimes a good reason to bet on them. That’s all speculative 

ar short odds guy like berdych last night I never get..think 1.17. But u get albot at 1.50. Guy on form. I don’t care how short the price is am getting at. I just want to hear more confident bets 

You'll learn!  

[apeman666]

3 minutes ago, Sir Puntalot said:

You'll learn!  

Every day I learn. School 

[darko08]

@money44 these are my finally official bets. Low stakes all of them obviously because they are all non-favorite players. If i get profits at the end of the round i will do this more regularly.

Kaia Kanepi to beat Julia Gorges at 2.30 with William Hill

Kanepi has already win 1 match here against Larsson (6-2, 6-2). Gorges started the year winning in Auckland but did nothing remarkable since then and she comes here after losing in the first round in Dubai against Riske (6-4, 7-5).

Mona Barthel to beat Madison Keys at 6.25 with 888

Keys has never won more than 1 match in any of her 6 participations here. She has lost in the first round the last 3 years here without winning any set. This will be the first match for her since the Fed Cup. Barthel has already win one match here against Lin Zhu in a 3 set match.

Jessica Pegula to beat Lesia Tsurenko at 2.50 with William Hill

Pegula destroyed Zarina Diyas in the first round (6-1, 6-1). She has played a couple of Finals this year in minor events but beating some interesting players. This will the first match for Tsurenko here and she did nothing remarkable since her quarterfinals in the US Open.  

Alja Tomjlanovic to beat Aryna Sabalenka at 3.70 with betfair

Alja has already win 1 match here against Cornet (7-5, 6-3). Sabalenka is the favorite but Alja will have more chances than the odds suggest.

Ricardas Berankis to beat Jan-Lennard Struff at 2.75 with 888

I don’t understand this big favoritism for Struff. Berankis did very well in her previous tournament in Dubai, winning there against Lestienne, Basic, Medvedev and Kudla. He finally lost against Monfils in a 3 set match. Struff has did nothing remarkable since a long time (even he lost in Rotterdam against an unknown player in straight sets) so I don’t understand these odds.

Felix Auger Aliassime to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas at 3.25 with bet365

Felix has already win 1 match here against Norrie (6-2, 6-3). This will be the first match for Tsitsipas here. I think he’s overrated for his last results and I expect a long match here with good chances for Felix to win this one.

Philipp Kohlschreiber to beat Nick Kyrgios at 2.75 with William Hill

Kohls has already played one match here against Herbert (6-4, 6-0). This will be the first match for Kyrgios here. He comes here after winning in Acapulco so Im not sure about his implication here (even with Kyrgios implicated Kohls should have more chances than the odds suggest).

Martin Klizan to beat Alexander Zverev at 6.25 with 888

Klizan is very good, if he's implicated and plays as he can he will put Zverev in troubles. He has already 1 win here against the other Zverev (6-1, 6-4).

 

[ogii55]

Kanepi - Georges 2.25  bet 365

 

I am big on Kanepi tonight as well. She is like a sleeping giant. Just need to get back to her power tennis after so many injury problems with her legs and knees. As mentioned above, she tested the ground. I am big fan of Georges, but she has two major problems. She can't show good tennis in two tournaments in a row and is depending a lot of her first serve. She did't do well in Dubai and I am not sure if she improved.

[four-leaf]

Alexei Popyrin to beat John Isner at 4.10 with Unibet

Alexei is playing really good tennis this season and Big John is not. 

[CzechPunter]

Great job with the underdogs guys, lots of interesting views. @money44 I now don't even know whether to support Kvitova or not, I'd like your parlay to come in .

[darko08]

Well, Mona Barthel and Felix did my day. Still have Berankis, Klizan, Kohls and Kanepi but with the first two i will be in profit. This is the last time i bet for Tomjlanovic as the underdog because ALWAYS happens the same. She goes to the final set and there she gets nervous and chokes, it's simply incredible. Pegula was very close, she took the first set and was 5-4 in the second one on serve but finally lost the match..

[Torque]

Is it just me or are there certain players that make tennis look painful. Players that never seem to win easily no matter who they play against - every point is a war of attrition. Players who turn what looks like the most routine win into the most drawn-out saga. Exhibit number one for me has to be Gilles Simon, closely followed by Feliciano. They seldom win easy, they're seldom priced as massive favourites.

[Grass Cash]

Bravo on your great start and guranteed profit Darko08.. I couldn't be happier about it, and love to see you do more of those in the future.. I am dissapointed in my own results, but I will figure it out.. 

 

[darko08]

another one for me that chokes in the final set (Berankis) 

@money44 thx, you also had some bad luck with the thirds sets with Jaziri and Mayer, let's see if Doi makes a surprise against Plisko in the final set. 

[ogii55]

18 hours ago, money44 said:

Tung-Lin Wu is once again a 2/1 underdog vs andujar .. I guess he gets no respect from the bookies.. The odds on this match should be close to 2.4 for Tung-Lin Wu - not 3.10 

Good one on that! Seems your guy is on fire. Bad call by me on that one!

[darko08]

Marketa Vondrousova to beat Jelena Ostapenko at 1.67 with William Hill

I will go with Vondrousova again. She’s a player that im following for a long time and she have the conditions to be a top 10 player in the future, for sure. She has win here against Siegemund (6-4, 7-6) and Kasatkina (6-2, 6-1). Ostapenko is one of the most aggressive style players of the WTA but we all know that when she’s not accurate she can lose the matches very easily. The point here is that she will play against a player who has a strong defense and that will force Ostapenko to hit an extra ball so in these circunstances I can see her doing a lot of unforced errors. Vondrousova has better serve than Ostapenko, her game on the net is also better and she has a better ability for the drop shots so the only scenario for me here where Ostapenko can win this one is holding a high % of accuracy with her aggressive forehand and backhand shots the whole match, something that seems difficult to me.

Fabio Fognini to beat Radu Albot at 2.05 with betfair

Fognini tanked 3 consecutive tournaments, 4 in a row would be too many even for a clown like him. Another fact that makes me think that he will be implicated is that he has win the doubles match. Considering all of this I take him. I know Albot is on fire and he has already win 3 matches here but Fognini is better player and he’s fresh to play against him after playing only 3 single matches in the last month. We have seen some players coming here from the South American tour winning some matches against players who were better adapted to the conditions so why not Fognini.

[Grass Cash]

52 minutes ago, darko08 said:

Marketa Vondrousova to beat Jelena Ostapenko at 1.67 with William Hill

I will go with Vondrousova again. She’s a player that im following for a long time and she have the conditions to be a top 10 player in the future, for sure. She has win here against Siegemund (6-4, 7-6) and Kasatkina (6-2, 6-1). Ostapenko is one of the most aggressive style players of the WTA but we all know that when she’s not accurate she can lose the matches very easily. The point here is that she will play against a player who has a strong defense and that will force Ostapenko to hit an extra ball so in these circunstances I can see her doing a lot of unforced errors. Vondrousova has better serve than Ostapenko, her game on the net is also better and she has a better ability for the drop shots so the only scenario for me here where Ostapenko can win this one is holding a high % of accuracy with her aggressive forehand and backhand shots the whole match, something that seems difficult to me.

Fabio Fognini to beat Radu Albot at 2.05 with betfair

Fognini tanked 3 consecutive tournaments, 4 in a row would be too many even for a clown like him. Another fact that makes me think that he will be implicated is that he has win the doubles match. Considering all of this I take him. I know Albot is on fire and he has already win 3 matches here but Fognini is better player and he’s fresh to play against him after playing only 3 single matches in the last month. We have seen some players coming here from the South American tour winning some matches against players who were better adapted to the conditions so why not Fognini.

@darko08 this is a terrible spot for vondrosouva, And there is absolutely no value at all with those odds. 

My fault for spam quoting the post

Edited March 10, 2019 by money44

[Grass Cash]

Jelena ostapenko to beat Vondrousova @2.33 - 10 units

[CzechPunter]

6-4 *3-0 and Kvitova still lost apparently, even though she then even had a break lead in the decider. How can you not love tennis? It really has been a nightmare ride for me since the Australian Open, I'll be only in a cosmetic profit for the year in posted picks if Nadal doesn't cover today. That said, the recent days were great for my pre-season picks, so there's that small plus at the very least. Great job to everyone who's making a sense out of this Indian Wells though!

[South_African_Punter]

Wow, so many big upsets yesterday - and I haven't looked at the WTA side, which generally has more upsets than the men's game - well in my experience anyway.

Tsitipas, De Minaur, Bautista-Agut, Coric - all out. Wonder what today has in store for us.

[darko08]

@money44 Yeah, maybe Ostapenko wins this but what is "value"? I think value really never exist in sports betting, it’s just a personal appreciation that sometimes can be reforced with some objective facts but objectively talking value can’t exist because bookies take in consideration all the objective facts possible to fix the odds. You can say “well there is value when bookies make mistakes” but I don’t think so, you can think that but probably there are a lot of other objective facts that bookies have considered and you not. I think that real value (considering this as objective value) only can be found in facts that bookies can’t predict: tanking, physical problems… so If you’re not considering any of these facts don’t have sense talking about value, just about personal appreciations.

[Grass Cash]

@darko08 - One way you can describe value is if you are backing a bet with odds of  1.6 .. You better be absolutely sure that bet is going to win unless you are doing it in a parlay. 

Vondrousova just played a very long tournament in Budapest.. I did not see her matches but I can almost guarantee you that Ostapenko is more rested than her.  Ostapenko just clobbered a very talented player in the last round only conceding 3 games total.  She is far more experienced than Marketa, and just as talented if not more so.. 

Ostapenko has made the 2nd and 3rd round here in successive years, and she will want to improve on that performance this year as well... i haven't seen the draw but she could advance to the quarterfinals this go round. 

Ostapenko's countrywoman also has advanced in this tournament as well.. I think that provides some additional motivation for whatever reason. 

When we are betting ... we never know when are gonna be correct , but if you take that bet ... like i said ... there is too much of a doubt in this case to lay that type of odds.. The match is atleast 50/50 based on this analysis I've given you... You have no reason such as Ostapenko is injured or something like that... I am 70% confident Ostapenko will take the match

 

Edited March 10, 2019 by money44

[four-leaf]

I also feel like Jelena Ostapenko will take the match, it just seems more likely and the odds on Marketa isn't exactly attractive. More of a trap it looks like.

[darko08]

14 minutes ago, money44 said:

@darko08 - One way you can describe value is if you are backing a bet with odds of  1.6 .. You better be absolutely sure that bet is going to win unless you are doing it in a parlay. 

Vondrousova just played a very long tournament in Budapest.. I did not see her matches but I can almost guarantee you that Ostapenko is more rested than her.  Ostapenko just clobbered a very talented player in the last round only conceding 3 games total.  She is far more experienced than Marketa, and just as talented if not more so.. 

Ostapenko has made the 2nd and 3rd round here in successive years, and she will want to improve on that performance this year as well... i haven't seen the draw but she could advance to the quarterfinals this go round. 

Ostapenko's countrywoman also has advanced in this tournament as well.. I think that provides some additional motivation for whatever reason. 

When you are betting ... you never know when you are gonna be correct , but if you take that bet ... like i said ... there is too much of a doubt in this case to lay that type of odds.. The match is atleast 50/50 based on this analysis I've given you... You have no reason such as Ostapenko is injured or something like that... I am 70% confident Ostapenko will take the match

 

Yeah, I rarely post a bet saying that there is value on there. In this case i can't say that there is value on taking Vondrousova, it's another personal appreciation like almost all my bets. I have following her for a long time and i think that her game can cause some damage to Ostapenko if she's not accurate with her aggressiveness because Vondrousova has a strong defense.

[South_African_Punter]

The problem with backing Ostapenko is similar to that of backing Fognini. So wildly unpredictable that it's impossible to have any degree of confidence in backing her. She can as easily lose 6-0, 6-0 as win 6-0, 6-0. She doesn't have that "fighter spirit" of someone like Halep.

Edited March 10, 2019 by South_African_Punter

[Grass Cash]

54-128 +122.65 units

Parlay Alex Bolt/Roberto Carballes Baena @ 8.94 with 5dimes

6 units

Pella already got beaten easily in his doubles match and this is his first tournament on hard.. Bolt is having some decent results at Indian Wells the past week. Schwartzman still struggling with some injury or something, and Baena winning in straight sets last match as an outside vs decent enough hard court player