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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - March 4 - March 10

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Ricardas Berankis to beat Filip Krajinovic at 2.38 with Unibet

Have to try Ricardas here because he is in good form and is surely motivated to get into the maindraw. Ricardas is up 3-0 in this matchup having beaten Filip last time 2017 in Moscow in straight sets. We all know Ricardas can play good tennis and he did just that last night even though he was challenged in second set which he lost in a tie-break but he's playing good enough tennis for another win. I really don't see the reason for Filip to be the favored player here, he is even the lower ranked player now but ranking is something I don't put to mutch focus on but Ricardas form and that he's beaten Filip three times before is something to think about.

Elias Ymer to beat Christian Harrison at 1.60 with Unibet

Elias did his usual irregular stuff yesterday, from being completely useless in first set he came back and stormed to a surprisingly easy win. You never know what you gonna get from the Ymer brothers but you know one thing, and it's that they can look totally different from one set to another but here I acctually expect Elias to do the job either in two or three sets. He did after all reach the Indian wells maindraw last season so he should be motivated to win this and defend the small amount of 26 ranking points and perhaps go one better this season if he gets the right opponent. Christian is one opponent I think is the right one for Elias since he's got absolutely none of the quality Elias sometimes shows on court. The surface is no problem for either player I guess but the slower conditions of Indian Wells suits Elias pretty well.

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Ricardas Berankis beat Filip Krajinovic in a three set match in Moscow 2017 and it was in the Beijing qualifiers 2014 that Ricardas beat Filip in straight sets. It's not so relevant but still sorry for that misinformation.

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20 hours ago, DrO said:

A double parlay for me tonight
Andreescu (vs.Begu) + Yastremska (vs.Gavrilova) @1,72 (local bookie)
Gavrilova..she's in mess right now losing all the matches in the season so far. I know that she's going to end this losing run sooner or later,but let's hope this will not happen tonight.

:hope

And that exactly what happened. :$

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I'm going to take a few outsiders for Indian Wells.

Kyrgios got a good win at Acapulco and may just spark him to live. Beat some good players and if he can beat Djokovic the draw looks good to him. Tsitipas just looks to be improving every day. Had a great Australian Open. Beat Federer and I just think he ran out of stream through long haul matches against Nadal.

Agut complete my little outsiders. Again, had some good runs recently winning Doha and beating Djokovic there. Followeed that form into the Aus and perhaps ran out of steam. He's 30 but sometimes looks like he's 50 :D

1pt E/W N.Kyrgios 40/1 skybet
1pt E/W S.Tsitipas 40/1 skybet
1pt E/W B.Agut 66/1 bet365

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19 minutes ago, Fader said:

I'm going to take a few outsiders for Indian Wells.

Kyrgios got a good win at Acapulco and may just spark him to live. Beat some good players and if he can beat Djokovic the draw looks good to him. Tsitipas just looks to be improving every day. Had a great Australian Open. Beat Federer and I just think he ran out of stream through long haul matches against Nadal.

Agut complete my little outsiders. Again, had some good runs recently winning Doha and beating Djokovic there. Followeed that form into the Aus and perhaps ran out of steam. He's 30 but sometimes looks like he's 50 :D

1pt E/W N.Kyrgios 40/1 skybet
1pt E/W S.Tsitipas 40/1 skybet
1pt E/W B.Agut 66/1 bet365

 

Might be worthwhile to take Raonic as well at 50/1 (good performance in the past here).

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12 minutes ago, South_African_Punter said:

 

Might be worthwhile to take Raonic as well at 50/1 (good performance in the past here).

Sure, what put me off Raonic was Djokovic in the top half. I think Nick has the ability to beat him, where as Raonic just never will. Ever.

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Tung-Lin Wu to beat Facundo Bagnis at 3.73 with Pinnacle

Tung-Lin has a successfull game going on right now and it can work well enough for another win here. But now the quality of the opponent goes up but Facundo hasn't been so impressive last few years and I think he might get some problems here. Tung-Lin has been very impressive and is yet to be broken and plays like he could win against anyone in Santiago. I know this could be the end for Tung-Lin but he is worth a try again because he's been playing great.

Reilly Opelka to beat Leonardo Mayer at 1.60 with Unibet

Reilly has some great form coming into this years Indian Wells and he beat Leo in Roland Garros qualies 2017 coming from behind to win in the decider. Reilly has good things going this season and on a hardcourt in the US he is worth backing at this price.

Bjorn Fratangelo to beat (-1.5 sets) Elias Ymer at 2.70 with Unibet

I've lost count on how many times Elias has got his serve broken during his two qualifying matches but one thing is for sure he is not reliable at all while Bjorn is pretty mutch the type of player you don't want to face when your serve isn't working like Elias isn't. Bjorn has been very reliable and I think he is yet to be broken, I didn't see the first two sets when he beat Andrey Rublev, he might have been broken somewhere there but that's irrelevant since Elias is nowhere near the quality of Andrey Rublev on hardcourt. Bjorn also has beaten Elias in Aptos challenger 2015 pretty easy in straight sets, Aptos is like Indian Wells situated in California. Elias has beaten Bjorn in straight sets once in a italian clay challenger final but that was on Elias favourite surface so I don't take mutch notice of that.

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52-125 +58.4 pts

Struggling quite a bit here .. i had a hockey nightmare last night also, and i lost almost everyting i touched recently.. Anywho.. I'll go again so you can fade it if you want .. but hard to fade a parlay lol. 

Bellucci 1.95/Strycova 4.45/Anisimova 1.9 - parlay @ 16.58 - 3 pts

The middle play on strycova in question. Halep I don't believe is completely healthy in Dubai.. So, maybe she is a slow starter sometimes, and will make alot of careful shots, but if she starts losing the match.. Strycova knows when to be aggressive.. its a shot in the dark of course, but I see Anisimova winning for some reason if Strycova does also.. Amanda seems confident and ready to go. 

Edited by money44
Pt result correction

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45 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Wu is most certainly not yet to be broken though, as Gonzalez broke him twice :).

I missed that but he's still been pretty convincing and worth a bet again so that's not so relevant anyway since the point is that he's been on a good level and should at least continue that way but we'll see how far his current level will take him but I'm willing to risk a small stake on that it takes him to the quarterfinal. It's a very nervy bet, he could very well lose in straight sets. But if it comes in I'm happy to have discovered a talent that can do the tricks that takes him far. Would be fun if that's the case.

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Martin Klizan to beat (-1.5 sets) Mischa Zverev at 2.17 with Unibet

Mischa is on a downwards trend but that's understandable that he would have a not so good season sooner or later after having such good seasons the last few years. Martin is 2-0 up in this matchup and has won both meetings in straight sets and if the trend of Mischa being as bad as he's been he should lose this in straight sets.

Radu Albot to beat Marius Copil at 1.53 with Unibet

Radu has a 4-0 advantage in this matchup but no meeting have been in a ATP maindraw so this will be the first but Radu is in such good form right now that I'm willing to trust him here. Marius have been nowhere to be seen so far this season apart from having beaten Stan Wawrinka in Sofia. Not taking the set handicap here because Marius can win a set, he's done that twice when meeting Radu so it could happen again but Radu should win.

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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Wu is most certainly not yet to be broken though, as Gonzalez broke him twice :).

Bagnis didn't look very strong in his last match.. Malla made way too many mistakes, and served poor also... Tons of unforced errors. Betting on Tung-Lin Wu for me is laying Bagnis to lose based on Wu's recent impressive record.. Have not seen him play yet tho.. Bagnis was not serving well also, and just letting Malla make a ton of silly errors.. Its almost as if he had no idea how difficult the match would become if he had to play from behind.. So careless errors in the first set.. gave it away, and then more in the second of just hitting the tape and things like this. I've seen other players in Santiago that looked to be better than both Malla and Bagnis, but I don't know if one of those is Wu or not. His backhand could get exposed from the lefty.. Don't know what his swing is like. 

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Mikhail Kukushkin to beat (-1.5 sets) Filip Krajinovic at 3.60 with Unibet

Mikhail can certainly win this in straight sets as he's been on another level than Filip since last year. It's the first time they will meet but Mikhail is so mutch better in terms of consistency right now that I find it really hard to have Mikhail as underdog as he is here. I don't understand where all the love from the bookies for Filip comes from. Strange to see Mikhail as small underdog here, Filip won last match just because Ricardas made so many errors that I can't count them. Filip made to many errors himself and Mikhail is so solid from the baseline that I really don't see how Filip can win a set.

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