Tennis Tips - March 4 - March 10

[four-leaf]

Tung-Lin Wu to beat Facundo Bagnis at 3.73 with Pinnacle

Tung-Lin has a successfull game going on right now and it can work well enough for another win here. But now the quality of the opponent goes up but Facundo hasn't been so impressive last few years and I think he might get some problems here. Tung-Lin has been very impressive and is yet to be broken and plays like he could win against anyone in Santiago. I know this could be the end for Tung-Lin but he is worth a try again because he's been playing great.

Reilly Opelka to beat Leonardo Mayer at 1.60 with Unibet

Reilly has some great form coming into this years Indian Wells and he beat Leo in Roland Garros qualies 2017 coming from behind to win in the decider. Reilly has good things going this season and on a hardcourt in the US he is worth backing at this price.

Bjorn Fratangelo to beat (-1.5 sets) Elias Ymer at 2.70 with Unibet

I've lost count on how many times Elias has got his serve broken during his two qualifying matches but one thing is for sure he is not reliable at all while Bjorn is pretty mutch the type of player you don't want to face when your serve isn't working like Elias isn't. Bjorn has been very reliable and I think he is yet to be broken, I didn't see the first two sets when he beat Andrey Rublev, he might have been broken somewhere there but that's irrelevant since Elias is nowhere near the quality of Andrey Rublev on hardcourt. Bjorn also has beaten Elias in Aptos challenger 2015 pretty easy in straight sets, Aptos is like Indian Wells situated in California. Elias has beaten Bjorn in straight sets once in a italian clay challenger final but that was on Elias favourite surface so I don't take mutch notice of that.

[CzechPunter]

Wu is most certainly not yet to be broken though, as Gonzalez broke him twice .

[Grass Cash]

52-125 +58.4 pts

Struggling quite a bit here .. i had a hockey nightmare last night also, and i lost almost everyting i touched recently.. Anywho.. I'll go again so you can fade it if you want .. but hard to fade a parlay lol. 

Bellucci 1.95/Strycova 4.45/Anisimova 1.9 - parlay @ 16.58 - 3 pts

The middle play on strycova in question. Halep I don't believe is completely healthy in Dubai.. So, maybe she is a slow starter sometimes, and will make alot of careful shots, but if she starts losing the match.. Strycova knows when to be aggressive.. its a shot in the dark of course, but I see Anisimova winning for some reason if Strycova does also.. Amanda seems confident and ready to go. 

Edited March 7, 2019 by money44
Pt result correction

[four-leaf]

45 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Wu is most certainly not yet to be broken though, as Gonzalez broke him twice .

I missed that but he's still been pretty convincing and worth a bet again so that's not so relevant anyway since the point is that he's been on a good level and should at least continue that way but we'll see how far his current level will take him but I'm willing to risk a small stake on that it takes him to the quarterfinal. It's a very nervy bet, he could very well lose in straight sets. But if it comes in I'm happy to have discovered a talent that can do the tricks that takes him far. Would be fun if that's the case.

[Grass Cash]

ATP Indian wells Futures with Bet365

4 pt each

Borna Coric 50/1

Daniil Medvedev 50/1

Stan Wawrinka 40/1

Milos Raonic 33/1

2 pt each 

Kevin Anderson 40/1

1 pt each

Stefanos Tsitsipas 33/1

 

[four-leaf]

Martin Klizan to beat (-1.5 sets) Mischa Zverev at 2.17 with Unibet

Mischa is on a downwards trend but that's understandable that he would have a not so good season sooner or later after having such good seasons the last few years. Martin is 2-0 up in this matchup and has won both meetings in straight sets and if the trend of Mischa being as bad as he's been he should lose this in straight sets.

Radu Albot to beat Marius Copil at 1.53 with Unibet

Radu has a 4-0 advantage in this matchup but no meeting have been in a ATP maindraw so this will be the first but Radu is in such good form right now that I'm willing to trust him here. Marius have been nowhere to be seen so far this season apart from having beaten Stan Wawrinka in Sofia. Not taking the set handicap here because Marius can win a set, he's done that twice when meeting Radu so it could happen again but Radu should win.

[Grass Cash]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Wu is most certainly not yet to be broken though, as Gonzalez broke him twice .

Bagnis didn't look very strong in his last match.. Malla made way too many mistakes, and served poor also... Tons of unforced errors. Betting on Tung-Lin Wu for me is laying Bagnis to lose based on Wu's recent impressive record.. Have not seen him play yet tho.. Bagnis was not serving well also, and just letting Malla make a ton of silly errors.. Its almost as if he had no idea how difficult the match would become if he had to play from behind.. So careless errors in the first set.. gave it away, and then more in the second of just hitting the tape and things like this. I've seen other players in Santiago that looked to be better than both Malla and Bagnis, but I don't know if one of those is Wu or not. His backhand could get exposed from the lefty.. Don't know what his swing is like. 

[four-leaf]

Mikhail Kukushkin to beat (-1.5 sets) Filip Krajinovic at 3.60 with Unibet

Mikhail can certainly win this in straight sets as he's been on another level than Filip since last year. It's the first time they will meet but Mikhail is so mutch better in terms of consistency right now that I find it really hard to have Mikhail as underdog as he is here. I don't understand where all the love from the bookies for Filip comes from. Strange to see Mikhail as small underdog here, Filip won last match just because Ricardas made so many errors that I can't count them. Filip made to many errors himself and Mikhail is so solid from the baseline that I really don't see how Filip can win a set.

[CzechPunter]

I never said anything about Bagnis, I just wanted to point out the factual error, now I'm getting pummeled .

[Grass Cash]

5 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

I never said anything about Bagnis, I just wanted to point out the factual error, now I'm getting pummeled .

Lol , Oh I wasn’t correcting you. I just didn’t do my morning shout out at you yet 

[Euforiaa]

Hello guys!Any thoughts about Berrettini and Querry ? I really like Berrettini in this spot..

[ogii55]

On 3/6/2019 at 11:51 AM, CzechPunter said:

Ysaline Bonaventure to beat Taylor Townsend at 2.18 with Pinnacle

Similarly to Pera, Townsend is also yet to get going in 2019 and I don't think the slowish conditions are going to suit her that much, as she's one of the worse moving players on the tour. She can compensate for that with power, of course, but Bonaventure is in a good nick at the moment and should follow up her good win over Swiatek with a main draw victory.

I like that too. Going pretty big on Yasline. When she is in form, is capable to do big damage. I think that if she drops 5-6 kg, she will be playing way better.

[CzechPunter]

Hi and welcome to PL @Euforiaa! The conditions could certainly help the Italian, but Querrey always does well on US soil.

[darko08]

Kirsten Flipkens (+1.5 Sets) to beat Eugenie Bouchard at 1.79 with 888

Jessica Pegula (+4.5 Games) to beat Zarina Diyas at 1.74 with 888

Jeremy Chardy (-1.5 Sets) to beat Marcos Giron at 2.00 with 888

Sorry for not reasoning the bets (I have no time). I think Genie and Zarina are the right favorites but not at this level. Chardy is better than Giron, by far so i expect him to win in 2 sets

[four-leaf]

Alexei Popyrin to beat Jaume Munar at 1.78 with Unibet

Alexei Popyrin to beat (-1.5 sets) Jaume Munar at 2.85 with Unibet

I like Alexei a lot this season. He one to look out for on hardcourts. Jaume is yet to do any damage in a hardcourt tournament and coming from South American clay will not do him any good. Alexei has played in the qualies and should be well prepared for this and it's highly possible he wins in straight sets again because Jaume is a perfect opponent to beat on a hardcourt in straight sets when you're as good as Alexei on hardcourt.

[CzechPunter]

Wu . Williams losing early on in the meantime, just can't buy a win at the moment .

[four-leaf]

4 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Wu . Williams losing early on in the meantime, just can't buy a win at the moment .

Why didn't you post Tung-Lin Wu as a bet yourself? Did you bet on Tung-Lin yourself? Don't tell me you missed that opportunity?

[darko08]

Ugo Humbert (-2.0 Games) to beat Maximilian Marterer at 1.76 with Marathonbet

Ugo is totally adapted here, 2 matches won in straight sets against Zopp (6-3, 6-1) and Wolf (7-5, 7-5). The last 4 tournaments played by Marterer were on clay (his best surface, by far). Ugo has better record on hard outdoor courts

[four-leaf]

Hubert Hurkacz to beat (-1.5 sets) Donald Young at 2.08 with Unibet

Not mutch to say about this bet. Hubert is simply a class above Donald atm and I'd be surprised if Donald nicks a set here. He should be overwhelmed by Huberts superior serving and better ground strokes. After seeing Hubert in Dubai I think he should have enough to win this in straight sets. Hubert comes to IW with the best form of his career and Donald comes to IW after having huge on court problems in his career right now. He's lost to JC Aragone in straight sets recently for example so come on, Hubert isn't gonna lose a set here.

[CzechPunter]

The odds looked pretty fair to me, so I didn't, well done for having a better opinion than me on that match though. Venus sick and still leading, this isn't fun to watch. Edit: And, instead of retiring, it seems that she's quite okay with getting bageled, cool.

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

The odds looked pretty fair to me, so I didn't, well done for having a better opinion than me on that match though. Venus sick and still leading, this isn't fun to watch.

What do you mean the odds looked pretty fair? That's not a reason for not betting on the underdog. It's like as if you avoid following many bets here. If I thought odds looked fair everywhere and not place any bets I would not win mutch. However it's your call not to follow me, @money44 or anyone else here but there's a lot of good bets being posted in this part of the forum from others than you and me.

For example I remember when I posted Jelena Ostapenko to win in straight sets v Mihaela Buzarnescu at odds 3.10 last summer and you didn't bet on it because you thought you had enough bets placed for the week or something. You miss a lot if you don't follow others here. Now Tung-Lin is probably gonna lose in the quarter so opportunities to bet on him is most likely gone now. And he was acctually at 2.35 on Unibet first match and 2.20 second and now 3.73 on Pinnacle. He's been good money!

I don't understand how you can skip so many bets because you think the odds looks fair and not worth betting on. I don't think the odds on Tung-Lin looked fair when he's up on 3.73 to beat an out of form or out of sorts Facundo. Can't say Facundo is out of form because he's been in this form for some seasons now so he probably isn't better. It was ages ago since he won a clay challenger and is only an average clay player on the challenger tour. 

Anyway it's your call not to follow others but sometimes it can be good to let others do the work for you. About your bet on Venus, she couldn't cover her handicap line but won the match and there I didn't like the line at all, looked to risky to bet on that line after I had checked their head-to-head record. You're right, Andrea has been a mess for many years now but obviously she can still do some damage. Please post more bets but feel free to risk some on anything but your own bets because I think it gets so boring otherwise because that's what this forum is about, to help eachother winning money.

[four-leaf]

2 hours ago, darko08 said:

Ugo Humbert (-2.0 Games) to beat Maximilian Marterer at 1.76 with Marathonbet

Ugo is totally adapted here, 2 matches won in straight sets against Zopp (6-3, 6-1) and Wolf (7-5, 7-5). The last 4 tournaments played by Marterer were on clay (his best surface, by far). Ugo has better record on hard outdoor courts

Max has been a mess ever since he reached the Roland Garros fourth round. He's really gonna drop a lot of ranking points if he continues this way and Ugo is like you say fully adapted to the IW courts now and he should have a good chance of covering the -2.0 line but I think it could be worth taking the risk with a bit higher line so I'm thinking Ugo -3.5 at 2.20 with Unibet

[four-leaf]

Ysaline Bonaventure to beat Taylor Townsend at 2.07 with Unibet

Match starts in about 15min because Jordan Thompson is just about to beat Federico Delbonis and it means Ysaline and Taylor will take the court very soon. I'm completely with Czech on this one and the odds have gone down 0.10 points since yesterday. Taylor should have her hands full in this match. She'll have a lot of balls coming back to her, saw Ysaline play last season in Brisbane and she was gritty like hell and that could work in this match.

[four-leaf]

lol  Fed Delbonis saves matchpoint and breaks back, I guess the next match on that court wont start in 15min now.

[CzechPunter]

Petra Kvitova to beat Venus Williams at 1.45 with local

This might actually be the very first bet for which I'm quoting a local bookie, but I just want to get something on the match asap after seeing the hilarious performance that Venus produced today. It was an awful match that Petkovic didn't win only because her mental demons are still there, but Kvitova isn't likely to mess around.

[Grass Cash]

44 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Ysaline Bonaventure to beat Taylor Townsend at 2.07 with Unibet

Match starts in about 15min because Jordan Thompson is just about to beat Federico Delbonis and it means Ysaline and Taylor will take the court very soon. I'm completely with Czech on this one and the odds have gone down 0.10 points since yesterday. Taylor should have her hands full in this match. She'll have a lot of balls coming back to her, saw Ysaline play last season in Brisbane and she was gritty like hell and that could work in this match.

I need Bonaventure to complete a parlay @ 29/1. Hope she has the magic 

[Grass Cash]

YOoo @four-leaf @CzechPunter good job guys on Bonaventure.. needed that one.. She had me very worried early in the match... Townsend twisted an ankle late in the second set... 

YOoo four - are we rocking with Tung-Lin again in Santiago... Monteiro was playing a little better than Bagnis earlier in the tournament but if Monteiro is behind in the match .. his level will drop alot. 

also good job again @ogii55

Edited March 8, 2019 by money44

[Hermes]

If Opelka overcomes this set trust him to come back on the third.

 

[Hermes]

1 minute ago, Hermes said:

If Opelka overcomes this set trust him to come back on the third.

 

Odds looking juicy around 2.5

[South_African_Punter]

27 minutes ago, Hermes said:

If Opelka overcomes this set trust him to come back on the third.

 

Heh. Had backed Opelka but only woke up in time to watch the end of the 1st set. Watched some of the 2nd set, didn't see Opelka making much progress against Mayer's serve, so hedged the bet by betting on Mayer. I see subsequently that Opelka had 2 BPs later in the set but couldn't take advantage of them.