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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - March 4 - March 10

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On 3/6/2019 at 11:51 AM, CzechPunter said:

Ysaline Bonaventure to beat Taylor Townsend at 2.18 with Pinnacle

Similarly to Pera, Townsend is also yet to get going in 2019 and I don't think the slowish conditions are going to suit her that much, as she's one of the worse moving players on the tour. She can compensate for that with power, of course, but Bonaventure is in a good nick at the moment and should follow up her good win over Swiatek with a main draw victory.

I like that too. Going pretty big on Yasline. When she is in form, is capable to do big damage. I think that if she drops 5-6 kg, she will be playing way better.

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Kirsten Flipkens (+1.5 Sets) to beat Eugenie Bouchard at 1.79 with 888

Jessica Pegula (+4.5 Games) to beat Zarina Diyas at 1.74 with 888

Jeremy Chardy (-1.5 Sets) to beat Marcos Giron at 2.00 with 888

Sorry for not reasoning the bets (I have no time). I think Genie and Zarina are the right favorites but not at this level. Chardy is better than Giron, by far so i expect him to win in 2 sets

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3 minutes ago, darko08 said:

Kirsten Flipkens (+1.5 Sets) to beat Eugenie Bouchard at 1.79 with 888

Jessica Pegula (+4.5 Games) to beat Zarina Diyas at 1.74 with 888

Jeremy Chardy (-1.5 Sets) to beat Marcos Giron at 2.00 with 888

Sorry for not reasoning the bets (I have no time). I think Genie and Zarina are the right favorites but not at this level. Chardy is better than Giron, by far so i expect him to win in 2 sets

Like Flipkens too, odds on her offers good value imo, I expect her to win in 3.

Edited by eros

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Alexei Popyrin to beat Jaume Munar at 1.78 with Unibet

Alexei Popyrin to beat (-1.5 sets) Jaume Munar at 2.85 with Unibet

I like Alexei a lot this season. He one to look out for on hardcourts. Jaume is yet to do any damage in a hardcourt tournament and coming from South American clay will not do him any good. Alexei has played in the qualies and should be well prepared for this and it's highly possible he wins in straight sets again because Jaume is a perfect opponent to beat on a hardcourt in straight sets when you're as good as Alexei on hardcourt.

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4 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Wu :ok. Williams losing early on in the meantime, just can't buy a win at the moment :\.

Why didn't you post Tung-Lin Wu as a bet yourself? Did you bet on Tung-Lin yourself? Don't tell me you missed that opportunity?

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Ugo Humbert (-2.0 Games) to beat Maximilian Marterer at 1.76 with Marathonbet

Ugo is totally adapted here, 2 matches won in straight sets against Zopp (6-3, 6-1) and Wolf (7-5, 7-5). The last 4 tournaments played by Marterer were on clay (his best surface, by far). Ugo has better record on hard outdoor courts

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Hubert Hurkacz to beat (-1.5 sets) Donald Young at 2.08 with Unibet

Not mutch to say about this bet. Hubert is simply a class above Donald atm and I'd be surprised if Donald nicks a set here. He should be overwhelmed by Huberts superior serving and better ground strokes. After seeing Hubert in Dubai I think he should have enough to win this in straight sets. Hubert comes to IW with the best form of his career and Donald comes to IW after having huge on court problems in his career right now. He's lost to JC Aragone in straight sets recently for example so come on, Hubert isn't gonna lose a set here.

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The odds looked pretty fair to me, so I didn't, well done for having a better opinion than me on that match though. Venus sick and still leading, this isn't fun to watch. Edit: And, instead of retiring, it seems that she's quite okay with getting bageled, cool.

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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

The odds looked pretty fair to me, so I didn't, well done for having a better opinion than me on that match though. Venus sick and still leading, this isn't fun to watch.

What do you mean the odds looked pretty fair? That's not a reason for not betting on the underdog. It's like as if you avoid following many bets here. If I thought odds looked fair everywhere and not place any bets I would not win mutch. However it's your call not to follow me, @money44 or anyone else here but there's a lot of good bets being posted in this part of the forum from others than you and me.

For example I remember when I posted Jelena Ostapenko to win in straight sets v Mihaela Buzarnescu at odds 3.10 last summer and you didn't bet on it because you thought you had enough bets placed for the week or something. You miss a lot if you don't follow others here. Now Tung-Lin is probably gonna lose in the quarter so opportunities to bet on him is most likely gone now. And he was acctually at 2.35 on Unibet first match and 2.20 second and now 3.73 on Pinnacle. He's been good money!

I don't understand how you can skip so many bets because you think the odds looks fair and not worth betting on. I don't think the odds on Tung-Lin looked fair when he's up on 3.73 to beat an out of form or out of sorts Facundo. Can't say Facundo is out of form because he's been in this form for some seasons now so he probably isn't better. It was ages ago since he won a clay challenger and is only an average clay player on the challenger tour. 

Anyway it's your call not to follow others but sometimes it can be good to let others do the work for you. About your bet on Venus, she couldn't cover her handicap line but won the match and there I didn't like the line at all, looked to risky to bet on that line after I had checked their head-to-head record. You're right, Andrea has been a mess for many years now but obviously she can still do some damage. Please post more bets but feel free to risk some on anything but your own bets because I think it gets so boring otherwise because that's what this forum is about, to help eachother winning money.

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2 hours ago, darko08 said:

Ugo Humbert (-2.0 Games) to beat Maximilian Marterer at 1.76 with Marathonbet

Ugo is totally adapted here, 2 matches won in straight sets against Zopp (6-3, 6-1) and Wolf (7-5, 7-5). The last 4 tournaments played by Marterer were on clay (his best surface, by far). Ugo has better record on hard outdoor courts

Max has been a mess ever since he reached the Roland Garros fourth round. He's really gonna drop a lot of ranking points if he continues this way and Ugo is like you say fully adapted to the IW courts now and he should have a good chance of covering the -2.0 line but I think it could be worth taking the risk with a bit higher line so I'm thinking Ugo -3.5 at 2.20 with Unibet

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Ysaline Bonaventure to beat Taylor Townsend at 2.07 with Unibet

Match starts in about 15min because Jordan Thompson is just about to beat Federico Delbonis and it means Ysaline and Taylor will take the court very soon. I'm completely with Czech on this one and the odds have gone down 0.10 points since yesterday. Taylor should have her hands full in this match. She'll have a lot of balls coming back to her, saw Ysaline play last season in Brisbane and she was gritty like hell and that could work in this match.

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Petra Kvitova to beat Venus Williams at 1.45 with local

This might actually be the very first bet for which I'm quoting a local bookie, but I just want to get something on the match asap after seeing the hilarious performance that Venus produced today. It was an awful match that Petkovic didn't win only because her mental demons are still there, but Kvitova isn't likely to mess around.

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44 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Ysaline Bonaventure to beat Taylor Townsend at 2.07 with Unibet

Match starts in about 15min because Jordan Thompson is just about to beat Federico Delbonis and it means Ysaline and Taylor will take the court very soon. I'm completely with Czech on this one and the odds have gone down 0.10 points since yesterday. Taylor should have her hands full in this match. She'll have a lot of balls coming back to her, saw Ysaline play last season in Brisbane and she was gritty like hell and that could work in this match.

I need Bonaventure to complete a parlay @ 29/1. Hope she has the magic 

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YOoo @four-leaf @CzechPunter good job guys on Bonaventure.. needed that one.. She had me very worried early in the match... Townsend twisted an ankle late in the second set... 

YOoo four - are we rocking with Tung-Lin again in Santiago... Monteiro was playing a little better than Bagnis earlier in the tournament but if Monteiro is behind in the match .. his level will drop alot. 

also good job again @ogii55

Edited by money44

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27 minutes ago, Hermes said:

If Opelka overcomes this set trust him to come back on the third.

 

Heh. Had backed Opelka but only woke up in time to watch the end of the 1st set. Watched some of the 2nd set, didn't see Opelka making much progress against Mayer's serve, so hedged the bet by betting on Mayer. I see subsequently that Opelka had 2 BPs later in the set but couldn't take advantage of them.

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Peter Gojowczyk (+3.5 games) to beat Andreas Seppi at 1.83 with Bet365

Both players met last month in Rotterdam and there Seppi won a difficult 3-set victory with 2 games margin. None of them is in good shape right now and i don't see the Seppi as big favourite here. I expect close match and the german will cover this line.

Jaume Munar to beat Alexei Popyrin at 2 with Bet365

OK, Munar just coming from the clay courts in South America and he hasn't success on hardcourts, but on AO he played close match against Fognini, so he can be a dangerous playes on his day. Popyrin's win are against players outside from top 100 and for me he is not favourite here. He lost against Schnur and Garcia-Lopez in New York and against D.King in Delray Beach. Munar are better player from these i can win this game.

Tennys Sandgren to beat Adrian Mannarino at 2.20 with Bet365

Mannarino is far away from his best last months and i cannot trust him to win against nobody. Sandgren also is not in good shape, after he won the tittle in Auckland he has only defeats. Tennys lost in 1st round in every tournament he played after that, but on home soil and against this opponent he definitely can return on winning way.

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Sorry folks, I don't really have the time now to add much reasoning to my picks :( 

Looks like they are already plenty of surprising results in Indian Wells and I can smell a fishy day today as well. Maybe nothing indicates the below upsets, and I might lose easily all of them, but who expected Humbert to lose 2-0 against Marterer, etc... I will give them a try :hope

Back Donald Young (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Hubert Hurkacz at 1.79 with MarathonBet

Back Steve Johnson to beat Taylor Fritz at evens with Expekt

Back Bernarda Pera (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Qiang Wang at 2.04 with Pinnacle

Back Stefanie Voegele (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Sloane Stephens at 2.31 with SBOBET

Back Ysaline Bonaventure (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Donna Vekic at 1.99 with Marathonbet

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  • Punters Lounge Forum Tips

    • ahh the Flyer. I used to be a fan   anyone know what the weather in Windsor is like?  gonna mention Polybius in the 7:40, back at the right trip and a generous price, but going dependant. good to soft atm is fine, but won’t want too much rain through the day
    • Just looking at tomorrows fixture and West Indies against Bangladesh. The 9/5 on Bangladesh looks a great price and enough for me to get involved. West Indies have been so hot and cold this tournament but ultimately, once Hope and Gayle go, it turns into a T20 match for these players. That doesn't always work. Bangladesh have been plenty solid enough in this tournament and so I'll take them to win this one. 5pts Bangladesh to beat W.Indies 9/5 Betfair
    • Monday 17/06/2019  Nottingham 08:20 FITZROVIA f/c. 13/8 stake = 10 pts WIN
    • Terrible tipping today. Apologies to anybody that was unfortunate enough to follow. I may have to be more selective in tournaments like these. Although I did lower the points on these. Looking at tomorrow for what it's worth.. Fraser Patrick beat Tom Ford in their only head-to-head 4-1 and they face eachother again tomorrow in the morning. The scot lost his Riga Masters qualifier to fellow scot, Donaldson but he played some decent stuff. Ford had some odd results though end of last season. I'll take Patrick on the handicap.  Next I'll take Xu Si when he plays the out-of-form Andrew Higginson. Higginson was whitewashed in his Riga Masters match and lost a few matches at the end of last season he should have been winning. Xu Si is in abit of form after hitting plenty of centuries at Q-School. next up I'll take Ian Burns against Scott Donaldson. Burns is a very capable player who I had some success backing last season and despite him losing the last head-to-head 4-2, prior to it he had won the prior 2 including a 5-0 whitewash. Finally, I'll take O'Neill to beat Maguire. O'Neill looked really impressive in his beating of Barry Hawkins and Maguire lost to Liam Highfield at the Riga a week ago. You have to wonder if Maguire will take this event seriously. 5pts F.Patrick (+2.5 frames) to beat T.Ford 4/5 boylesports 4pts I.Burns to beat S.Donaldson 15/8 coral 2pts X.Si to beat A.Higginson 6/4 boylesports 2.5pts J.O'Neill to beat S.Maguire 17/5 unibet  
    • Scott Griekspoor to beat Facundo Mena at 2.33 with Pinnacle No reason to have Scott as an underdog in this match. He's the reigning Blois champion and he often delivers good results at home in Netherlands and in France. Last season he even beat Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-4 6-4 in the final so he can play some very high quality tennis the older brother of Tallon Griekspoor.
    • Windsor 7.10 Come On Tier - 10/1 PP e/w thanks Come On Tier - from Lee Carter yard now as he was previously with David Simcock until till May this year, He's not ran for 55 days when he ran at Lingfield 1m AW when he won by 1.25 lengths, His other win came in his 2nd race on a racetrack at Nottingham 1m GD when winning by 3.25 lengths and his very first time on a racetrack was here GS when he came 3rd beaten 1.5 lengths when his new yard 2 years later bring him back here to try and rekindle his turf races again with Sean Levey in saddle
    • Result Doncaster 05:35 MAID IN MANHATTAN.....2nd..6/4 Todays Profit =  - 10.00 pts Current Years Profit 2019 =  + 109.62 pts.   (Years Profit 2018 = + 90.52 pts.) (Years Profit 2017 = - 73.44 pts.) (Years Profit 2016 = + 437.86 pts.) (Years Profit 2015 = + 18.52 pts.) (Years Loss 2014 = - 30.20 pts.) (Years Loss 2013 = - 105.06 pts.) (Years Profit 2012 = +127.65 pts.) (Years Loss 2011 = - 13.82 pts.) (Years Profit 2010 = +166.01 pts.) Bank = + 2611.00 pts. Profit = + 2511.00 pts   Current Losing Run =  1
    • 3.30 Carlisle - Irish Minister 40/1@bet365
    • Kilbeggan, 19:00, Eimear, 7/2 BV
    • 2nd -  tracked leaders, went 2nd over 5f out, led over 2f out, soon headed, no impression on winner final furlong, kept on Dr Richard Kimble 15.15 Catterick 1 Pt Win @ 9\2 Paddy Power Won 3 times last year. 16/1 and visored for 1st time, last of 8 in handicap at Ripon (12f, good to firm) 11 days ago. Doesn't look in love with the game at present. 
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