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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - March 4 - March 10

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Peter Gojowczyk (+3.5 games) to beat Andreas Seppi at 1.83 with Bet365

Both players met last month in Rotterdam and there Seppi won a difficult 3-set victory with 2 games margin. None of them is in good shape right now and i don't see the Seppi as big favourite here. I expect close match and the german will cover this line.

Jaume Munar to beat Alexei Popyrin at 2 with Bet365

OK, Munar just coming from the clay courts in South America and he hasn't success on hardcourts, but on AO he played close match against Fognini, so he can be a dangerous playes on his day. Popyrin's win are against players outside from top 100 and for me he is not favourite here. He lost against Schnur and Garcia-Lopez in New York and against D.King in Delray Beach. Munar are better player from these i can win this game.

Tennys Sandgren to beat Adrian Mannarino at 2.20 with Bet365

Mannarino is far away from his best last months and i cannot trust him to win against nobody. Sandgren also is not in good shape, after he won the tittle in Auckland he has only defeats. Tennys lost in 1st round in every tournament he played after that, but on home soil and against this opponent he definitely can return on winning way.

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Sorry folks, I don't really have the time now to add much reasoning to my picks :( 

Looks like they are already plenty of surprising results in Indian Wells and I can smell a fishy day today as well. Maybe nothing indicates the below upsets, and I might lose easily all of them, but who expected Humbert to lose 2-0 against Marterer, etc... I will give them a try :hope

Back Donald Young (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Hubert Hurkacz at 1.79 with MarathonBet

Back Steve Johnson to beat Taylor Fritz at evens with Expekt

Back Bernarda Pera (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Qiang Wang at 2.04 with Pinnacle

Back Stefanie Voegele (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Sloane Stephens at 2.31 with SBOBET

Back Ysaline Bonaventure (+1.5 sets handicap) to beat Donna Vekic at 1.99 with Marathonbet

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Well I guess nobody else likes Wu here.. I'm passing on the bet for now because i think its a trap also. 

10 units

Evgeny Karlovskiy to beat Ze Zhang @ 2.31 with Pinnacle (probably the line will change soon. I predict Karlovskiy will close at 1.73). 

Evgeny is a very talented and powerful player. I have seen the third set in his last match.. Moriya not playing exceptional but he is doing well from the baseline as usual.. Karlovskiy has a very good slice backhand, ground game, and serve.. I believe he will champion the tournament very soon.. thanks 

 

 

Edited by money44
book change

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Ryan Harrison (-1.5 Sets) to beat Roberto Carballes at 1.85 with 888

Roberto comes here after playing 4 clay tournaments in South America. He’s a pure claycourter with no more than 50 matches played in this surface in his career. Harrison has a win/loss record of 202-151 and the crowd will be with him.

Andreas Seppi (-2.0 Games) to beat Peter Gojowczyk at 1.71 with Marathonbet

Gojo had physical problems in his last match against Millman (6-0, 6-2) and that was just 1 week ago so I expect that he won’t be at his best here. Seppi won against Gojo recently in Rotterdam like 3 weeks ago.

Radu Albot (-2.5 Games) to beat Marius Copil at 1.72 with Marathonbet

Albot is in the best moment of his career (he’s in a 7 winning streak and won in Delray Beach beating Karlovic, Kyrgios, Johnson, Mckenzie and Evans). He is totally adapted to the court (he has win against Lacko and Krueger in straight sets).

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Marketa Vondrousova to beat Daria Kasatkina at 1,73 with William Hill

2 players in opposite shape. Vondrousova did Final in Budapest recently and has already win 1 match here against Siegemund in straight sets. I watched that match and I liked what I saw form her. She held long rallies and played aggressive in the right moments, her serve worked well and she did some good drop shots (can be a good gun against Daria). Kasatkina recent results are absolutely horrible (obviously she will start winning matches again, but I expect that this won’t occur in this match, especially after firing her coach). Daria did Final the last year here but doesn’t matter so much when you’re without confidence.

Bianca Andreescu to beat Dominika Cibulkova at 1.55 with Marathonbet

Nothing much to say here. Cibulkova has win only one match this year (against Lara Arruabarrena in a 3 set match) in front of the Andreescu win/loss record of 23-3.

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Jaume Munar to beat Alexei Popyrin at 1.85 with SportingBet

So growing up in Spain, Munar probably has a preference for the "dirty stuff" (clay) over hard courts and grass. However, having read multiple tournament previews of Indian Wells, the surface, although hard, seems to be on the slower side, benefiting Munar. Also from watching yesterday, the wind seems to be causing some problems for some of the players. I feel that Popyrin, with his serve, has a strong preference for faster courts, and thus it won't be such an advantage in today's match.

 

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Sorry for overbetting but this will be the last one for sure (I expect to win 4 or 5 at least).

Thomas Berdych (-1.5 Sets) to beat Feliciano Lopez at 1.65 with 888

Im a little bit surprised for how they pay the 2-0 in this one. Feli is almost retired, Berdych should win this comfortably. Personally, I will pay this at 1.45-1.50 so I think that at 1.65 has value.

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@South_African_Punter Munar pick looks gold. Agree with the analysis also

parlay Venus williams/Bonaventure 12.49 Pinnacle -6 units

Venus is more rested than Petra and she knows how to expose her backhand nothing much to be said about Bonaventure who has been producing results owns a 1-0 head to head. Donna does not have great results at this tournament in the past

Edited by money44
Odds correction

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1 hour ago, DrO said:

Why is Elise Mertens underdog against Anisimova?
It realy make no sense to me..

You are probably correct Mertens should not be the underdog in this match but I still think Amanda is going to win who the heck knows

Edited by money44

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Leonardo Mayer to beat Gael Monfils @ 4.39 with pinnacle

10 units

SimilarSimilar analysis to the match that South African described except I much prefer the odds on this one and the fresher legs with Leonardo book it for 10 units. 

Edited by money44

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1 hour ago, money44 said:

@South_African_Punter Munar pick looks gold. Agree with the analysis also

parlay Venus williams/Bonaventure 12.49 Pinnacle -6 units

Venus is more rested than Petra and she knows how to expose her backhand nothing much to be said about Bonaventure who has been producing results owns a 1-0 head to head. Donna does not have great results at this tournament in the past

Would you mind explaining to me what you are confused about? I am thinking you will believe Petra runs all over Venus Williams. Very possible but we will see it’s a combination bet because I believe if Petra loses Bonaventure’s chances are very good

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I'm confused by you saying that Venus is more rested than Petra. Venus needed medical attention yesterday and was moving like a snail, certainly didn't look fine and rested to me. I think that Venus wins this only if Kvitova wants some time off and just throws the match away, but the tournament is so big that this doesn't look likely to me. That said, good luck.

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20 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

I'm confused by you saying that Venus is more rested than Petra. Venus needed medical attention yesterday and was moving like a snail, certainly didn't look fine and rested to me. I think that Venus wins this only if Kvitova wants some time off and just throws the match away, but the tournament is so big that this doesn't look likely to me. That said, good luck.

You are probably correct then I did not watch Venus’s match

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9 hours ago, money44 said:

Yo anyone else going to take Tung-Lin Wu again ? I don't trust Monteiro at these odds .. seems like a value bet on a guy who just keeps winning 

I took Tung-Lin again.. Sorry for not posting it. Haven't been at the computer to mutch today.

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Does anyone have any idea why Mikhail Kukushkin has gone up to 2.38 or higher? I'm thinking he's injured and will retire. The guy is rather prone to retire in matches and injuries he often has but if everything is alright he'll beat Filip in two.

Mikhail Kukushkin to beat (-1.5 sets) Filip Krajinovic at 4.10 with Unibet

Strange odds movement but the odds are higher than before now so if Mikhail isn't injured and can play at 100% he'll win this in two.

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@four-leaf @darko08

I know that I don't have the best results on here, but I been betting on tennis a long time.. 

In my opinion those 2-0 set bets that you guys like to do on the favorite to win the match is way too risky in most cases.. You're playing into the linemakers hands by taking all that juice, and then on top of that predicting an exact score.. Its easy to be wrong on these set betting scores.. I'd suggest looking for something with bigger odds and no exact set scores. 

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7 minutes ago, money44 said:

@four-leaf @darko08

I know that I don't have the best results on here, but I been betting on tennis a long time.. 

In my opinion those 2-0 set bets that you guys like to do on the favorite to win the match is way too risky in most cases.. You're playing into the linemakers hands by taking all that juice, and then on top of that predicting an exact score.. Its easy to be wrong on these set betting scores.. I'd suggest looking for something with bigger odds and no exact set scores. 

What are you talking about, you've got great results here. I completely agree, correct scores are not the best way of making money but sometimes it looks so obvious that it will happen that I can't get the bet out of my head but many times I think it's just wishful thinking like Bjorn Fratangelo to beat Elias Ymer in straight sets but Alexei Popyrin was great again.

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I've seen that Czech Punter has a niche for the 2-0 set betting .. He does conservative style bets like this all the time .. I seen you four-leaf and Darko go for more underdogs .. I can't win betting on those sets .. I've tried it .. very difficult stuff 

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7 out of 10 matches ends in straight sets in every tournaments early rounds so if you want to bet on correct score 2-0 is the call either on the underdog or the favourite. Later on in tournaments you may have some luck picking a straight sets score also. Like in the final of Auckland when I picked Tennys Sandgren to beat Cam Norrie in straight sets at 3.40 and he did it easily and that time it was obvious Tennys would win in straight sets since he was on a such type of streak that tournament. So you got to be smart however you're betting.

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I will say Darko does those 2-0 set bettings alot also .. But for you four-leaf... I know that you probably don't want to hear this .. but I would never do those again if you are serious about making money.. you can win doing other styles of bets .. Everyone has their different betting abilities .. I can't win on those either , but hey I could be wrong... just giving my two cents .. or you can just bet on Tung-Lin Wu everytime and win money that way 

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@four-leaf I know that you are going to win 2-0 sometimes .. its bound to happen .. but you have to be on nostradomous level to get those right consistently.. yeah we have some good bettors in this forum who might be able to turn a profit doing that.. 

maybe you are one of those people also .. i'm just saying its difficult 

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