Tennis Tips - March 4 - March 10

[DrO]

Or maybe i should have go with set handicap here,what say you @CzechPunter?

[CzechPunter]

If the odds are about the same, I'd prefer the games handicap in this particular case, as Kovalik could potentially fall away in the decider with no match fitness.

[ogii55]

Wu - Gonzalez 2.21 Pinnacle

 

Wu could be the next big China star. The dude scored some nice wins on clay last season and is in nice form comming after futures win. Gonzales is nowhere close to his best. He is pretty slow and this is the treason he has more succes on hard then on clay in recent years

[four-leaf]

Ugo Humbert to beat (-1.5 sets) Jurgen Zopp at 1.60 with Unibet

He started to really get somewhere Ugo last season and has just continued the same way this season. Ugo is solid enough to win this matchup in two. I don't think there will be a tie-break either because Ugo is good enough right now to avoid that.

Alexei Popyrin to beat (-3.5) Jozef Kovalik at 1.67 with Unibet

Alexei Popyrin to beat (-1.5 sets) Jozef Kovalik at 1.78 with Unibet

Following Ugos match is this match on the same court. I think the set handicap on Alexei Popyrin looked ok so I prefered that first but I'll probably be seeing the match be more even than expected and Jozef steals a set and ruins my evening so I think it's best to take both the games handicap and the set handicap.

Edited March 5, 2019 by four-leaf

[CzechPunter]

On fire @ogii55, well done!

[Grass Cash]

WTA Indian Wells: 10 unit bets

Dalila Jakupovic to beat Natalia Vikhlyantseva @ 2.85 with Pinnacle

Yafan Wang to beat Sonya Kenin @ 2.59 with Pinnacle

Okay I'm going to write some analysis for these so Czech Punter doesn't smash me. Jakupovic is a fully capable player, and I have questions about Natalia's fitness. This is their first meeting, and there is some pride involved. Natalia is the type of player who wins very easy one match, and then surprises easy loss next match right after.. These are very good odds, and I like the bet alot.. Natalia's first opponent was a young girl from South Africa who is only 16 years old. I don't think this tells us much about her form.. 

I predicted Yafan Wang to win the Acapulco tournament along with many other losing picks but nonetheless.. There is no reason for Kenin to be favored over her.  I think Yafan had some confidence from that win, and she won't want a letdown against Kenin immediately afterwards. Kenin was quite upset, and she has played alot of tough matches in the past year.. This is not a good spot for Sonya, and Yafan may decide to punish her. Yafan is the mentally stronger player even though Kenin is a tremendous fighter.  Also the experience level with Yafan comes into play, and Kenin with perhaps more potential, but I like the way that Yafan Wang plays alot, and as I said before there is no reason for Kenin to be the favorite in the match other than you to lose your money if you bet on her

Edited March 5, 2019 by money44
Analysis

[DrO]

Does anyone knows what's Ramanathan's style of tennis and does IW surface&conditions suits his game?
He's playing against Filip Krajinovic.

Edited March 5, 2019 by DrO

[ogii55]

2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

On fire @ogii55, well done!

Cheers mate! 

One more:

Caruso - Lorenzi 2.25 Unibet, 2.26 188bet

Caruso showed very nice form first time this season on the same courts. Lorenzi had to travel from South America, where he played on clay. He never liked the hard courts.

[Grass Cash]

I expect to recover some later in the card -- Collarini also in a dog fight he should win

additional plays follow: Book: Pinnacle

Parlay: Priscilla Hon/Bonaventure @8.09 - 10 units

Jozef Kovalik to beat Popyrin @ 4.15 - 10 units

Kamil Majchrzak to beat Rublev @ 3.46 - 10 units 

 

 

[Grass Cash]

52-122 +82.4 pts (changing unit term to points now for good luck)

Parlay Bastian Malla/Tomasz Bellucci/John Jeffrey Wolf @ odds 28.27 with Pinnacle - 4 pt bet

This is a very strong combination.. Rating this for completion at about 45 %.. I have seen both players in Santiago, and they are in great form.. John Wolf is a young USA phenom. He is winning alot of matches, and is very technical and speedy player.. I bet him in the first match and he won somewhat convincingly in straight sets.. I think if Ugo Humbert does not serve well .. He will soon find himself in trouble during this match. 

Edited March 6, 2019 by money44
editing results here

[four-leaf]

48 minutes ago, money44 said:

52-122 +82.4 pts (changing unit term to points now for good luck)

Parlay Bastian Malla/Tomasz Bellucci/John Jeffrey Wolf @ odds 28.27 with Pinnacle - 4 pt bet

This is a very strong combination.. Rating this for completion at about 45 %.. I have seen both players in Santiago, and they are in great form.. John Wolf is a young USA phenom. He is winning alot of matches, and is very technical and speedy player.. I bet him in the first match and he won somewhat convincingly in straight sets.. I think if Ugo Humbert does not serve well .. He will soon find himself in trouble during this match. 

I think if Jeffrey John doesn't serve well it's he who will soon find himself in trouble during this match. So more of the opposite and Ugo served well last match when he beat Jurgen Zopp and he will continue to do so most likely. I don't see Ugo dropping his level that he's had for so many months in a qualifier for a masters. Ugo is quite reliable.

[CzechPunter]

Venus Williams (-3.5) to beat Andrea Petkovic at 2.00 with Paddy Power

Petkovic has been a mess for so many years now that I don't really see an upset happening here despite the conditions perhaps improving this match-up for her a bit. While Venus was playing with the best in the Australian Open, Petkovic was losing against the likes of Potapova and Vikhlyantseva, so I definitely fancy the American on US ground.

Caty McNally to beat Bernarda Pera at 1.71 with Pinnacle

Caty McNally is playing for the second straight week in Indian Wells and with very solid results, so she should have at least some edge over Pera, who really is yet to get going this year. She has just one decent win in 2019 and no IW match practice, while McNally has plenty of both.

[CzechPunter]

Ysaline Bonaventure to beat Taylor Townsend at 2.18 with Pinnacle

Similarly to Pera, Townsend is also yet to get going in 2019 and I don't think the slowish conditions are going to suit her that much, as she's one of the worse moving players on the tour. She can compensate for that with power, of course, but Bonaventure is in a good nick at the moment and should follow up her good win over Swiatek with a main draw victory.

[WinningTipster]

1 pick for WTA INDIAN WELLS

RISKE-2 GAMES OVER VAN UYTVANCK @ 1.77 pinnacle
Two players play on the similar level but on US hard courts Riske is better, especially considering this will be 1st match for Van Uytvanck on US hard courts this year. Plus recent form is better for Riske as well.

 

[four-leaf]

Tung-Lin Wu to beat Matteo Donati at 2.20 with Unibet

I don't see why they keep underestimating Tung-Lin Wu. The guy is a future top 100 player in my book at least and he seems to have reached a pretty decent challenger level already. Beating Alejandro Gonzales wasn't bad by Tung-Lin and he can continue by putting more misery to Matteos hopes of winning a match. Matteo has now lost 10 straight matches and the last one he beat was Oscar Jose Gutierrez ranked 398 then, in a italian clay challenger back in September last year. Tung-Lin is underrated again and I see him winning this match.

[DrO]

A double parlay for me tonight
Andreescu (vs.Begu) + Yastremska (vs.Gavrilova) @1,72 (local bookie)

Young Canadian girl is the biggest revelation of the new season so far. At least when i'm concerned. Great talent followed by good results already. Begu is solid,experienced and very resilient player but more a clay court player i would say. She recently beat Andreescu in Fed Cup,but in significantly different conditions. She won't have this advantage tonight. 
Yastremska is another big prospect with more than solid start of the season. She even won a tournament in China on hard court. Gavrilova..she's in mess right now losing all the matches in the season so far. I know that she's going to end this losing run sooner or later,but let's hope this will not happen tonight.

[four-leaf]

8 minutes ago, WinningTipster said:

1 pick for WTA INDIAN WELLS

RISKE-2 GAMES OVER VAN UYTVANCK @ 1.77 pinnacle
Two players play on the similar level but on US hard courts Riske is better, especially considering this will be 1st match for Van Uytvanck on US hard courts this year. Plus recent form is better for Riske as well.

 

How can you say that Alison Riske has better form recently than Alison Van Uytvanck when the former Alison just won WTA Budapest on indoor hardcourt? Very risky bet imo.

[South_African_Punter]

33 minutes ago, eros said:

Anna Schmiedlova - Lauren Davis

FT Home (ML) Odd: 1.970 Bookmaker: Pinnacle

4/10

In a hurry, but will add infos later when I'm at home.

Sorry, it's a bit unclear. Who are you picking?

[four-leaf]

45 minutes ago, South_African_Punter said:

Sorry, it's a bit unclear. Who are you picking?

He is picking AK Schmiedlova but I agree it's not so clear who he picks. He writes as if he was betting on football.

[four-leaf]

Ricardas Berankis to beat Filip Krajinovic at 2.38 with Unibet

Have to try Ricardas here because he is in good form and is surely motivated to get into the maindraw. Ricardas is up 3-0 in this matchup having beaten Filip last time 2017 in Moscow in straight sets. We all know Ricardas can play good tennis and he did just that last night even though he was challenged in second set which he lost in a tie-break but he's playing good enough tennis for another win. I really don't see the reason for Filip to be the favored player here, he is even the lower ranked player now but ranking is something I don't put to mutch focus on but Ricardas form and that he's beaten Filip three times before is something to think about.

Elias Ymer to beat Christian Harrison at 1.60 with Unibet

Elias did his usual irregular stuff yesterday, from being completely useless in first set he came back and stormed to a surprisingly easy win. You never know what you gonna get from the Ymer brothers but you know one thing, and it's that they can look totally different from one set to another but here I acctually expect Elias to do the job either in two or three sets. He did after all reach the Indian wells maindraw last season so he should be motivated to win this and defend the small amount of 26 ranking points and perhaps go one better this season if he gets the right opponent. Christian is one opponent I think is the right one for Elias since he's got absolutely none of the quality Elias sometimes shows on court. The surface is no problem for either player I guess but the slower conditions of Indian Wells suits Elias pretty well.

[four-leaf]

Ricardas Berankis beat Filip Krajinovic in a three set match in Moscow 2017 and it was in the Beijing qualifiers 2014 that Ricardas beat Filip in straight sets. It's not so relevant but still sorry for that misinformation.

[four-leaf]

@money44 I think Kenin is called Sofia in first name not Sonya

[cluelessG]

28 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

@money44 I think Kenin is called Sofia in first name not Sonya

Sonya must be her nickname, even her website is sonyakenin.us and says:

" Sofia Anna Kenin is 20 years old. Sofia or "Sonya", what people who are close to her call her ..."

[four-leaf]

It's WTA tennis on Stadium 5 where Ricardas meets Filip...

[four-leaf]

Awful tennis by both Ricardas and Filip, conclusion: Filip is probably knocked out next match. But you never know who he gets to play but likely not any lower ranked opponent.

[DrO]

20 hours ago, DrO said:

A double parlay for me tonight
Andreescu (vs.Begu) + Yastremska (vs.Gavrilova) @1,72 (local bookie)
Gavrilova..she's in mess right now losing all the matches in the season so far. I know that she's going to end this losing run sooner or later,but let's hope this will not happen tonight.

And that exactly what happened.

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, frustrating with McNally as well. It's always frustrating to get an odds movement right and then see the pick lose - and it's been happening to me sickeningly often recently.

[Fader]

I'm going to take a few outsiders for Indian Wells.

Kyrgios got a good win at Acapulco and may just spark him to live. Beat some good players and if he can beat Djokovic the draw looks good to him. Tsitipas just looks to be improving every day. Had a great Australian Open. Beat Federer and I just think he ran out of stream through long haul matches against Nadal.

Agut complete my little outsiders. Again, had some good runs recently winning Doha and beating Djokovic there. Followeed that form into the Aus and perhaps ran out of steam. He's 30 but sometimes looks like he's 50

1pt E/W N.Kyrgios 40/1 skybet
1pt E/W S.Tsitipas 40/1 skybet
1pt E/W B.Agut 66/1 bet365

[South_African_Punter]

19 minutes ago, Fader said:

I'm going to take a few outsiders for Indian Wells.

Kyrgios got a good win at Acapulco and may just spark him to live. Beat some good players and if he can beat Djokovic the draw looks good to him. Tsitipas just looks to be improving every day. Had a great Australian Open. Beat Federer and I just think he ran out of stream through long haul matches against Nadal.

Agut complete my little outsiders. Again, had some good runs recently winning Doha and beating Djokovic there. Followeed that form into the Aus and perhaps ran out of steam. He's 30 but sometimes looks like he's 50

1pt E/W N.Kyrgios 40/1 skybet
1pt E/W S.Tsitipas 40/1 skybet
1pt E/W B.Agut 66/1 bet365

 

Might be worthwhile to take Raonic as well at 50/1 (good performance in the past here).

[Fader]

12 minutes ago, South_African_Punter said:

 

Might be worthwhile to take Raonic as well at 50/1 (good performance in the past here).

Sure, what put me off Raonic was Djokovic in the top half. I think Nick has the ability to beat him, where as Raonic just never will. Ever.