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Australian Open 2019

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Parlay

Pablo Carreno Busta to beat (-5.5) Luca Vanni at 1.73

Pablo has a huge chance of winning this in 3 sets and should cover a 5.5 line. They've met once in Spain on hardcourt and Pablo won that match by 7-6 6-0.

Tomas Berdych to beat Kyle Edmund at 1.46

Kyle is apparently carrying a knee injury and has the pressure to defend semifinal points. Under those circumstances it's not ideal to come up against an inform veteran and former top 5 player who in some way makes a deep run almost everytime he comes to Melbourne.

Roberto Bautista Agut to beat (-2.5 sets) Andy Murray at 2.14

Andy is in pain constantly nowadays and this might be his last match, he'll play through the pain but RBA will ofcourse win this easily. I can't see any way Andy will take a set under current circumstances from an inform RBA.

Total odds: 5.41 with Unibet

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Donna Vekic (vs Kristina Mladenovic) + Over 3.5 sets (Kecmanovic + Verdasco) at 2.12 with 888

I dont like Mladenovic, she’s a good doubles player but she is not getting good results in singles from a long time. She lost in Sydney in the first round against Kimberly Birrell (6-7, 6-3, 6-7) and did the same in Brisbane against Destanee Aiava (3-6, 6-7), also in the first round. Vekic is playing well, she won in Sydney against Rybarikova (6-1, 6-2), Kiki Bertens (7-6, 1-6, 7-5), Sasnovich (6-0, 6-2) and finally lost against the winner of the tournament, Karolina Pliskova.

I already said in a previous post why I think this can be a long match. Is very strange to see Verdasco playing well a full match. He usually has “disconnections”, especially when he is the favourite so I expect from Kecmanovic to win 1 set at least. The last year here Verdasco lost in the second round against Marterer in a 5 set match.

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Outright Winner Grigor Dimitrov @40/1 e.w. (half the odds to reach the final) with Bet365

Grigor can beat anyone on his day, reached the semis in 2017 and has Andre Agassi back in his corner.

He's surely better than what he achieved in 2018.

good luck all :ok

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2 picks for Australian Open 1st round matches

HERBERT-QUERREY OVER 39.5 GAMES @ 1.92 pinnacle
Expect a long close 4-5 match with at least one tiebreaker between the two.

SASNOVICH TO DEFEAT FLIPKENS @ 1.41 pinnacle
Flipkens is not at her best for the last year or so. Sasnovich with much better baseline game and better recent form.



 

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Why Popyrin is such a big favourite over M. Zverev?
Mischa had a great run at AO in 2017, I know he had a bad losing streak at the end of last season, but there's no reason not to beat such a mediocre kid like Popyrin.

Also, Gavrilova to beat Zidansek at 1.50 with WilliamHill should be a banker.

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3 hours ago, Urosito said:

Why Popyrin is such a big favourite over M. Zverev?
Mischa had a great run at AO in 2017, I know he had a bad losing streak at the end of last season, but there's no reason not to beat such a mediocre kid like Popyrin.

Also, Gavrilova to beat Zidansek at 1.50 with WilliamHill should be a banker.

The market believes Zverev is carrying an injury, hence the big drift in his price on the exchange last couple of days. I couldn't find any official sources for any injury news, just some speculation on Twitter. Could be just someone ramping the price, who nows? I've already taken 6/4 on Zverev so I'm hoping its just misinformation. If fit, Zverev must have a big chance.

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Harriet Dart to beat Maria Sharapova at 3.65 with Unibet

Masha is not what she once was. She'll have to work hard the coming months to get into gear and reach any sort of top 10 lever again but tonight will be a hard match for her. Harriet has been very solid in the beginning of this season and I backed her in Brisbane and will do so again here. She was great in Brisbane and I think there's more to come from her.

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2 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Harriet Dart to beat Maria Sharapova at 3.65 with Unibet

Masha is not what she once was. She'll have to work hard the coming months to get into gear and reach any sort of top 10 lever again but tonight will be a hard match for her. Harriet has been very solid in the beginning of this season and I backed her in Brisbane and will do so again here. She was great in Brisbane and I think there's more to come from her.

Apologize for this one, I hope nobody followed 6-0 6-0 to Masha.

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Mirza Basic to beat Henri Laaksonen at 2.10 with Unibet

Now everybody gets fooled and thinks Henri will this since he qualified for the maindraw and faces Mirza who is plain bad since he won that title in Sofia but I don't think it's that easily. Henri hasn't showed mutch before he qualified for this years AO and I doubt he will show mutch more on this surface for now. Henri isn't even at his best on hardcourt, he's more of a clay type of player I think and Mirza may have been bad after that title run in Sofia but he faces mostly top 100 players last season and started this season by beating Mattias Bachinger in straight sets in Doha qualies before going out in 3 sets to Sergiy Stakhovsky. Feels like Mirza should have a chance to win this match and the odds should be more even. Mirza isn't worth a shot if he faces players of better quality but Henri is not a player of better quality and Mirza is only the underdog because Henri successfully qualified but that doesn't make him better.

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5 minutes ago, opole said:

Zoe Hives was the biggest gift i have seen for a while. 1.85 odds should have been around 1.2, she was absolutely schooling Mattek-Sands who looked mentally weak and out of shape. 61 62 Hives finally. Easy Money.

Yeah that one was easy.. btw did you see Katie Boulters match? She thought the match was over when she had the lead 7-4 in third set tie-break. Some players seem uninformed about the new rule of match tie-break to 10.

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1 minute ago, four-leaf said:

Yeah that one was easy.. btw did you see Katie Boulters match? She thought the match was over when she had the lead 7-4 in third set tie-break. Some players seem uninformed about the new rule of match tie-break to 10.

She should have read the topic here. Hahaha.

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Guys , There is a good chance my whole card might tank, and drop like 15 units .. So be careful ... We'll see .. Thanks for your help with the picks .. not sure who submitted on Cuevas , but really pointed out a decent value .. so I got him live in the second set @ good odds after already winning set 1.  I have him listed under my second sheet, but really more of a confirmation in seeing the value from someone else.  

I am watching the match, and he looks really good.  I will pick him to advance past Dimitrov in the next round.. I see Cuevas making a deep run here. I haven't seen further into the draw , so this is a bit early to decide .. but I can see him going as far as the semi-finals if not reaching the finals. 

Good luck guys, and thanks for tipping me off to him, because I really needed to catch a break on my bankroll situation. :ok

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2 minutes ago, money44 said:

Opole .. what do you think of Murray's odds.. I feel he stands a chance. 

How can you belive in Andy with his pain? Ofcourse he stands a chance if he's fit but he's in constant pain with his hip and can't play to his normal standards anymore.

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Aussie open might be Andy Murrays last match and I can't understand how anyone can throw money on him under current circumstances so @money44 don't do it. I don't know where you get any feeling from that Andy stands a chance but don't do any stupid bets like betting on a soon to be retired former world no.1 with an injury that makes him unable to play his game.

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His hip is not ok and he's said it clearly before the grand slam in his press conference and he doesn't even know if he can cope with the pain as long as till Wimbledon where he would like to finish his career. Did you see him play last season? He was clearly not ok in Chengdu when he met Nando Verdasco and lost easily in 2 sets and I don't see any sign of improvement at the start of this season. Saw him on Eurosport when he met Daniil Medvedev and he didn't look good at all. He can still win some games but his serve is as vulnerable as ever and it's easy pickings for top players now. He won't last long before he calls it a career.

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