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Everything posted by opole

  1. A. Cazaux/H. Mayot 6.90 Pinnacle 4/10 Kubot and Melo were looking horrendous in Hamburg last week and they faced pretty average team Moraing/Hanfmann (both not great in doubles) and then Peers/Venus battered them in like 30 minutes. Kubot/Melo won like ~ 40 % of their points on serve which is ridiculous for doubles matchplay. They didn't look much better in New York losing Johnson/Krajicek and Vliegen/Gille. Cazaux/Mayot is a dangerous upcoming doubles team of prospects. They played together twice on Pro level and despite losing both matches in 2020 they were looking decent for one set against world class team like Mahut/Pospisil (even a break up there 3-1 in the first set). Both also played together on Junior level reaching the Quarterfinals at the 2020 Australian Open, 2019 US Open, 2019 French Open. They played together as Juniors and had some great success together so i assume they should be well adapted to each other on court. This is definitely more a fade of Kubot and Melo rather than a play on Cazaux and Mayot but i like them a lot on court so i guess i like it even more to bet on them and to fade Kubot/Melo at the same time.
  2. ATP Antwerp Pablo Cuevas 3.80 Pinnacle 5/10 I like Cuevas here. He looked decent in R1, not clowning and joking vs. a guy he should beat without problems - and he did beat that guy without any problems. He served well and his groundgame was on point. Andy Murray is kind of a surprise to me. I can remember betting on Matteo Viola to beat Andy Murray and he really beat him. It was probably one of the worst defeats Murray has suffered in his whole career but to be honest i thought Andy Murray is about to be done. Now he's back with decent results on a decent level. He beat guys like Norrie, Berrettini, Londero and Sandgren. Losing to names like De Minaur, Fognini or Thiem is no shame either. I think we can expect him to be even better in 2020 with a decent camp and prep. I watched his first round encounter with local wild card Coppejans closely and i think Murray is a bit off this week. He had a tough time in Asia with a couple of really exhausting matches, he travelled a lot last few weeks, now his wife is getting a baby this week, he already told the media that he's playing in Belgium because of the fact he can travel home quickly. He definitely looked off in the first round, Coppejans had many, many chances to take the second set but was wasting leads all over again. I think Cuevas is a tough matchup for Murray right now. Murray will need to run a lot, Cuevas playing a good mixture. He's serving well, hitting groundstrokes very hard but playing also with angles. I think Murray will have to work very hard and i'm not sure if he can. He still has two big tasks ahead apart from supporting his wife while getting a baby: There is a Masters tournament in Paris, a big tournament and a good chance for him to get some points as usually the Top players not playing that well there because it's the last official tournament of the season. And second, maybe even more important, Davis Cup Final in Spain. I really think Murray will play Singles there. I know it isn't confirmed but GB doesn't have many options right now. It will come down to Murray, Norrie, Edmund or Evans. Considering Edmund is in really bad form right now and Murray beating Norrie recently i think the final decision might be Evans/Murray for singles. Anyway, i think Murray isn't at 100% and he might not be too sad if he loses early this week. To get some rest before he's heading into Paris and Davis Cup. I take my chance here at that price, i think Cuevas is a living dog in here.
  3. I don't have much time to write long time analysis for this card but my picks are: Amanda Nunes wins by decision 3.50 Intertops 4/10 Panni Kianzad wins by decision 3.40 William Hill 4/10 Jorge Masvidal wins by decision 9.00 Bet365 2/10 I think Holm will survive here but i don't see her doing any damage because i think she's simply too old and too slow to land big in the pocket. Nunes might want to brawl with her and Holm will probably stay at the outside. Expect a boring fight here. Nunes should get the decision in the end. Kianzad is better & sharper striker imo, more accurate aswell. She has very good lead left hand and if she decides to throw the right a bit more often then i expect her to outscore Avila. Masvidal should be a very living dog here today vs. Askren who was beaten up badly by Lawler last fight. The stoppage for Askren there was BS, Lawler wasn't out. Askren is simply a terrible stand up fighter and i don't see him going anywhere with this. Even guys like Khabib or Usman having some decent striking skills while Askren has absolutely NOTHING to offer. I thinkt his is stop point, Askren will lose his 0 here. But Askren probably has very good chin as he took MASSIVE damage in his career sometimes and still wasn't hurt or rocked so i think Masvidal dec is better than Masvidal ML. I also think there is decent value on Diego Sanchez to beat Chiesa. But i pass on Sanchez as i think his chin might be wrong but odds around 4.20 are simpy stupid. If Diego has a good night, he can blast Chiesa out and i think Chiesa is somehow a bit of a quitter if he's hurt. He doesn't like to get hit and Sanchez is very good allrounder with decent striking, wrestling and especially decent grappling. I doubt Chiesa will sub him here, Chiesa path to victory is imo a decision. But we'll see. Too many questionmarks about Sanchez here although i am really tempted by his odds.
  4. Izuagbe Ugonoh 1.45 various books 10/10 Odds dropped a bit, i got better price here but still juicy as i would cap him around 1.05 here. Ugonoh is world class prospect. He only lost a brawl to Breazeale but we all know Brezeale is solid and can punch a bit (probably Top 10 power at HW). I actually think Ugonoh can do some damage in the HWD. He's athletic and fast for a big guy, has great variety and looked fantastic vs. Breazeale till the point he got reckless and gassed. But i can't see him losing to this guy Rozanski. No way. As i said i think Ugonoh has at least 95% to win this so i bet him BIG. Odds still okay at 1.45, i got odds above 1.60 so i went totally degen on that....Good luck!
  5. M15 Rochester Drew Baird vs. Jack Mingjie Lin @3.66 22bet 4/10 Baird is solid prospect, very good junior player but he will have to gain experience on that level, this is only his fifth tournament at pro level and Lin already much more experienced (played several challenger tournaments AND is playing college tennis in the US). I think odds are too wide even if Baird is considered as the favorite it should be like 1.65.
  6. Alonzo Menifield x Jordan Griffin => @1.68 Intertops 8/10 Be careful with Griffin. You need to pick him vs. Vince Murdock as the fight vs. veteran Chas Skelly was cancelled. I really think there is no real path to victory for both Craig and Murdock. Menifield is one of the biggest prospects right now. He's very quick and has great striking game, very explosive. I think they're bringing Craig in because Menifield should deal with him pretty easily and brutally. Menifield has great TDD and should easily avoid the ground. On their feet i expect Menifield to crush Craig brutally. There are probably two levels between them in the stand up. Griffin should deal with his late notice opponent aswell. Griffin is a good striker and grappler, throws great combinations in the pocket but also has some good judgement of distance. Murdock is pretty poor imo. I think Griffin shouldn't have any problems and will probably score a stoppage here.
  7. UFC ON ESPN 3 Junior Albini @2.10 William Hill 7/10 I really fancy Albini over Greene here. Greene hasn't fought anyone of notice yet and still he had two close fights with Jeff Hughes who is probably one level below Albini. Greene lost the first fight vs. Hughes and won the second via split decision,, it was really close and it shows the current level of Greene who is simply a tall tuff dude but not even that powerful for a Heavyweight. I absolutely don't rate him in any kind. I think main reason why Albini is the dog here is that he lost his last three fights but those opponents were not bad at all although Oleynik and Arlovski are both old and probably shot. Arlovski is still one of those guys who can expose prospects as not that good and he exactly did it with Albini who isn't a huge prospect on his own but still in my opinion one class above his opponent. The other guy who stopped Albini was a big dude from Suriname with crazy power who just ko'd a guy within 9 seconds at the weekend at UFC Greenville. I love the Albini play here and i think it's wise to take the bet right now as odds are dropping fast and heavy.
  8. easy pick , both bets cashing in, parlay won. s*** limits and offer or i would have bet much more on that.
  9. Leduan Barthelemy wins by Dec x Chris Colbert ML @1.97 Bethard 5/10 I think Leduan should win a dec here without a problem. He's fighting at home in Las Vegas and he's promoted aswell. So big advantage. His opponent is tough and durable though. I know Cayetano had a long layoff but he had a fight scheduled earlier this year which was cancelled so he should be in shape. Cayetano fought decent opponents and was only stopped twice, once vs. decent level guys like Quigg and Galahad. The fight vs. Leduan is scheduled for 8 rounds and he was never stopped inside 8 rounds so i think this should not happen vs. a guy like Leduan who isn't a puncher. I use Chris Colbert to juice up my odds on Ledua as he should win without big problems.
  10. Catterall vs. Serban never happened. Serban pulled out.
  11. Dana White's Contender Series 17 Bill Algeo @2.90 Betonline 3/10 This should be a pick em' fight. Algeo is one of the best prospects in Pennsylvania. He's a very good striker with vicious kicks, also very good on the ground with nice submission skills. He developed very well in the last few years. Both having very good resumes considering the level they were fighting on. I like my action on Bill Algeo as the sizeable underdog.
  12. Nottingham Paul Jubb @4.82 Pinnacle 4/10 I think there is a solid chance that we can see some grass court tennis early today in Nottingham as i think it shouldn't rain till 1 or 2 pm and matches starting early today at 10:30am. So this is good chance for Jubb after beating Zopp to gain another good win. He has the grass experience as he played good match vs. Ward last week and he has played indoor vs. Zopp so in my opinion doesn't matter if it's played outdoors or indoors, i am going with the young brit who is a very decent prospect. He only had short junior career because he decided to go the college path int he US and he's playing for South Carolina. He won the NCAA singles title in 2019 which is a great deal. Novak coming straight from clay court tournament in Poznan last week. I don't think he had many chances to hit on grass considering the fact he arrived in the UK last week Friday or Saturday, then weather got worse and it is basically raining for days now. Jubb should be better prepared for the grass here. Hopefully match will get started and finished outdoors.
  13. ATP s'Hertogenbosch doubles S. Arends/M. Middelkoop @2.68 5dimes 4/10 For me this is basically a pick em' match so i am happy to take the two local guys at a very good price. Arends and Middelkoop had a decent run on grass in 2018. They reached qf. in s'Hertogenbosch, final in Antalya and the second round in Wimbledon (close match and loss vs. Bryan brothers). Ram/Salisbury coming off a very decent run on clay in Paris (although they had some real luck out there for sure). They're having a good year together and i think they will do fine on grass but this is close matchup, no real fav should be named.
  14. ATP s'Hertogenbosch Robin Haase @2.47 Pinnacle 4/10 Haase looked great vs. Humbert in the first round. Was serving very well. Grass is maybe his favorite surface, personally of course, he's a former junior Wimbledon finalist (losing to Chardy in 2005). I think he can be dangerous to anyone on grass and especially in the early stages of the grass season he's very dangerous as he is adapting quickly. I don't think Garin should be the favorite. I like my action on Haase here, in my opinion he has good chances to reach the quarterfinal at his home tournament.
  15. Columbus John Mcnally @2.71 Pinnacle 4/10 Theoretically this is a must-win for prospect like Mcnally playing at home in Ohio. I know his current form isn't the best, he had some major problems in the last few College matches losing sets to some players he should beat easily. But now he had few weeks off and maybe recovered a bit after a long season for Ohio State and this is a big chance here.
  16. And do not forget that all those players are usually very motivated to play those grass court challenger tournaments as the winner of each challenger gets a Main Draw Wild Card for Wimbledon!
  17. Matteo Berrettini 2.910 Pinnacle 4/10 So we do trust Kyrgios again only because it's grass court tennis now? No, man, i do not trust him for 1% even if it's grass in Australia in front of his house. Kyrgios is a joke and i really love to fade him right now as he's looking like a mental nutcase who is also struggling with physical issues left and right. Berrettini is a guy who is always reliable as he is delivering solid performances and he has the tools to play well on grass. His serve is big and he has crushing groundstrokes. At some point Kyrgios might quit again. If not it's still close matchup. Shelby Rogers -1.5 games 2.03 Dafabet 4/10 Rogers looked incredible good recently considering the fact she is coming back from long injury layoff. She won sets vs. Suarez Navarro, Garcia and Ostapenko during her first comeback trail on clay and now she's playing on grass where she had some solid success in the past (R3 in Wimbledon, should have beaten Kerber there but lost close match in the third). On the other hand Sorribes Tormo finished her match vs. Zidansek in Bol late Sunday evening. She caught a flight from Split to the UK on Monday but there is no direct flight so she had at least one stop and might arrived in Nottingham late in the evening, a couple of hours ago. I doubt she could hit on grass as weather was really bad in Nottingham. The whole week shows tough weather conditions and it'll be tough for her to get any match practice on grass before she has to play the match while Rogers already had a few hitting sessions on the outdoor grass. I like Rogers here.
  18. no luck this weekend in tennis...moore 0-3 behind, then won 5 games in a row, leading 5-4 30-30, monticone retires ........
  19. WTA Nottingham qualif. Tara Moore @3.23 Pinnacle 5/10 Moore has nearly playsed 100 matches on grass and Nottingham should be a good place for here to re-gain some momentum after an average 2019 season so far. Moore reached the quarterfinal in Nottingham in 2016 where she beat good names like Vekic and McHale, losing to Saisai Zheng finally. Gatto-Monticone is nearly 32 yrs old and is playing her first (!) grasscourt tournament ever...this is basically her second match on grass in her whole pro career and she's playing since 2003. She won her first round encounter with out of form Chinese player Xu so i wouldn't overrate that. Moore had tough match vs. Martincova who is great on grass and she beat her comfortably with a strong performance. Moore is playing "at home" here as she's from Doncaster which is a town 70 km away from Nottingham. I think this is close to a pick em match, maybe the Brit is even the favorite. Odds +3 are representing great value in my opinion.
  20. Hartono leads 3-2 with a break up, then losing four games in a row...classic stuff for WTA standards. Really annoying.
  21. UFC 238 Blagoy Ivanov @2.30 5dimes 4/10 I really like Ivanov as an underdog here. He's allrounder with good grappling & wrestling skills but can also fight on his feet as he's very good boxer aswell. One of the things i like about him is he's improving from fight to fight. I and expect another step-up from him. Tuivasa is one-dimensional brawler who is nice to watch but he's not versatile enough to handle a guy like Ivanov in my opinion. I doubt Tuivasa can knock him out and if it goes to decision i think Ivanov will have the upper hand. Tuivasa also having a questionable gas tank. I think Ivanov should be the favorite. So we have good value on him.
  22. there is no topic for this week non french open bets so i put it into that one as it's a qualification match of next weeks tournaments S'hertogenbosch WTA qualif Arianne Hartono @8.10 5dimes 4/10 Hartono decent prospect i think, she played college tennis in the US and won the NCAA singles championship in 2018 for Ole Miss. She also graduated in 2018 so now she will turn pro and she looks promosing. Another angle is that her opponent Bonaventure played on claycourt on Thursday in Croatia. She finished her match on Thursday 4pm local time so i checked some sites and i think she took the flight from Split to AMsterdam yesterday which made her arrive in Rosmalen in the evening, she probably didn't even have the chance to hit on grass for a training session here. I wouldn't be surprised if she lacks timing and movement after coming from claycourt. Bonaventure is very solid but we all know switching to grass is difficult. I also expect very tough conditions if you're not adapted to grass as it'll be slippery, very wet weather in the Netherlands according to the reports altough it should not rain at all.
  23. Braga Challenger Fred Gil @3.25 Pinnacle 4/10 Fading Cuevas after losing 06 06 is not bad move imo, i don't rate him anyway. Cuevas won 8/33 service points vs. Ehrat in Savannah a couple of days ago. He didn't do much on the Ehrat serve aswell. It was an awful performance. Not sure if he's injured again or he just had a bad day in the office, doesn't matter at all, he's playing a decent local player in Fred Gil who is former Top 70 player and had some good results over the last years at those bigger tournaments in Portugal. He has very good ballstriking abilities, hits the ball clean and flat but lacking consistency, can implode from nowhere, but i hope it won't today.
  24. easy harris stopped him after 50 secs of round 1, there were 2 or 3 classes between them lol....i had small side bet on KO aswell and it cashed but i think going with BIG stake on the ML was the right move in the first place this was first grade gift from the books.
  25. bhullar wins an unanimous decision with 2x 29-28 and 30-27. 29-28 was good score, 30-27 a bit harsh, i think adams won the second round. but a win is a win!!
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