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CzechPunter

Australian Open 2019

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10 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Probably because Muchova is overrated but mostly unknown reason

Lol. When i did my bet Muchova was 5.00 and Karo 1.10 or something like that. These odds were ridiculous and now looks normal to me.

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Muchova is overrated and Pliskova should win it quite easily. I watched a lot of Pliskova in Brisbane and she looked in superb shape. She is at least one class above Muchova. Can't see the Muchova hype by the way and i backed her vs. Yastremska at the beginning of the season but still no idea why she should beat Pliskova who is one of the favorites to win the whole tournament. Wouldn't even touch her at odds 5-6. 

Edited by opole

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My 2c on kiki vs Alison 

Watched Kiki play Ash Barty and the match before .. and watched Alison in China.. 

I think Alison will at most take a set from Kiki .. she can’t sustain the level needed to beat these sort of players over a whole match.. she got very close many times last year but ...

However an upset may come if Kiki gets frustrated when Alison plays very well for more than a set. 

 

I had my eyes on Alison for an upset here but I don’t think it can be against Kiki!

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1 hour ago, aussietennisexpert said:

My 2c on kiki vs Alison 

Watched Kiki play Ash Barty and the match before .. and watched Alison in China.. 

I think Alison will at most take a set from Kiki .. she can’t sustain the level needed to beat these sort of players over a whole match.. she got very close many times last year but ...

However an upset may come if Kiki gets frustrated when Alison plays very well for more than a set. 

 

I had my eyes on Alison for an upset here but I don’t think it can be against Kiki!

Allison might surprise .. the problem with Bertens is she has some lingering injuries, and isn't really a passionate tennis player like some others.. She also happens to get nervous and choke matches.. She is not in top form at the moment... She gave Barty a great match , but Barty hasn't peaked either this year... Ashleigh has grand slams in her future.. Beast of a player, and she might make a deep run in this tournament as well. When Barty is in good form .. she rarely disssapoints. Her fitness is better... and I see Barty sitting around # 4-7 in the rankings by years end.  :cheers

I did not watch the matches in China with allison tho ... so I'm out of the loop 

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had a problem with the like button registering .. I clicked on and off a couple .. was troubleshooting it a bit .. I like some of your guys recent posts .. And also .. I do think Bedene stands a chance vs Zverev.. I'm not adding it to my card, because I already bet 100 players, but I always prefer to lay Zverev when possible.. You could hit that one :ok

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Ok now I got to drop the bomb..

Mikhail Kukushkin to beat Lucas Pouille at 2.63 with Unibet

I'm gonna have a big stake on this one. If Mikhail has maintained his form from the end of last season he's gonna win this. Lucas have never reached the second round in AO, out in first round 4 times. Mikhail is notoriously good in grand slams and davis cup or you could say he's an excellent best of 5 sets player. He can certainly nick this matchup. And it wasn't just at the end of last season Mikhail was good, he was acctually pretty good all of 2018. High confidence in Mikhail from my side.

Edit: the downside on this bet is that Lucas have never lost in a best of 5 to Mikhail, beaten him twice in 4 sets in US open. Is this bet worth it @CzechPunter?

Edited by four-leaf

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I am not so sure about Kukushkin being in shape for the Open and i am not so sure this is a good prize to take. He had to defend a quarterfinal in Pune and wasn't playing there, also isn't playing this week either. He posted pics on Instagram where he was on vacation in the mid of December. Furthermore he lost six times in a row in the first round at AO, last time he won a match there was in 2012. I do not consider Pouille as in form recently losing all four matches in 2019 and i didn't watch the Rublev match, his serving stats were horrible (under 50% points won on first serve!!) but i think his record in Melbourne is a bit misleading as he came to Melbourne without match rythm and practice last season and he was injured two years ago vs. Bublik + had to play two top guys in 2016 and 2015 (Monfils & Raonic). There are too many questionmarks over Kukushkin and his form/shape to take him with those odds IMO. But nevertheless good luck with your bet, Kukushkin is a great player but lacking mental strength and a strong body otherwise he would be a regular Top 20 player.

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Some players each of us have preference to bet on .. I have not had luck Kukushkin , but last time I missed a bet with him when i want to bet him vs Rublev in vienna indoors... So its better value in my mind on mikhail than getting juiced with Pouille...:)

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7 minutes ago, money44 said:

Some players each of us have preference to bet on .. I have not had luck Kukushkin , but last time I missed a bet with him when i want to bet him vs Rublev in vienna indoors... So its better value in my mind on mikhail than getting juiced with Pouille...:)

I would not bet a penny on Pouille right now but still there is a big questionmark over Kukushkin as he pulled out of the Doha main draw and the Sydney qualifying draw due to an injury.

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Bogdan can be a very difficult player to contend with .. She reached the third round last year, and has improved on her first two matches result.. She should be rested and ready to advance over the youngster.  odds are a deal. 

 

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Has sb. saw Suarez Navarro playing this year?

She is playing one of the best juniors out there who translated well to the pro circuit last year: Clara Burel. 

Burel is really good but probably a bit too green and unexperienced but i fancy a over bet here.

Edited by opole

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Alison Riske (+5,5 Games) + Berdych + Opelka (+2,5 sets) at 3.46 with 888

I will be fast because all of them have been post already

Alison Riske played so well in Shenzen and could won against Sabalenka. She served so well and cleaned all the lines of the court with her powerful shots. Could won that match in straight sets.

Berdych did so well in Doha while Edmund is absolutely out of form. I know he defends a lot of points but with his actual form I can’t see him winning against a better in-form player like Berdych.

2 monster servers. This match will be decided in the TBs and I can’t see Isner winning all of them.

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There is 3 matches I also looked at with chances, and since my card is already finished for this round .. I will  include bogdan here but these are not official ... you have Alison Van uytvanck, Flipkens, and Krunic.  I will not be surprised if two of these win out of the 4.  

I can also tell you guys that Barthel is one my favorite plays @ odds around 5 because its a fade on Sevastova who could tank the match to conserve her strength.. I don't see motivation to advance for her.. Barthel however needs a big win. :ok

Edited by money44

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There is always money on the line Czech .. These women have blessed lives, and Sevastova can make more money tanking this match, and resting for greater achievements later.. Barthel is a very tough matchup ... Look at her last two years at the Australian open results .. You will see there is some signicant value on the bet .. even if it loses 3 out of 4 times .. still profit.  Good luck CP , and maybe you will test a punt here .. There is alot of good bets for this Australian Open I believe.. so this could be one that misses and others come in or vice versa. 

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I do feel similar about Qiang Wang losing first round.. I think she has no business advancing in this tournament .. and some unknown (atleast to me) top 150 player Ferro comes in with better speed and conditioning.. and blows wang right off the court. Wang playing alot of tough matches late last year .. Really a solid player but Riske already destroyed in her opening 2019 match.. she put up no fight at all based on the score i see. 

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Del Bonis advanced to the 3rd round here in 2016, and should be motivated to start the year off with a nice win... He's already had some decent results, and you're talking about a talented player in the prime of his career.. Millman might be a bit worn down , and could struggle with the Del Bonis power forehand. :ok Odds around 4 suggests pure value.. This is anybodies match.. Millman looks really overrated particularly in this spot .. I smell something. I do feel much better about Barthel than this match .. just wanted to share 

 @CzechPunterso i like that del bonis had a cushy little warm up tournament on hard with some wins, and millman in the fight for his life at some higher events 

Edited by money44

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Parlay with 3 players who should win their matches without suffering. Im thinking to bet for Kecmanovic (vs Verdasco) or maybe an over I don’t know. Kecmanovic will be at top 100 very soon, he’s doing very well and is so talented. Verdasco can lose against everybody (last year here lost against Marterer in the 2nd round in a 5 set match). Anyway, good luck to everybody!

Tsitsipas (vs Berrettini) + Jordan Thompson (vs Feli) + Tiafoe (vs Gunneswaran) at 2.23 with 888

Berrettini exploded the last season winning in Gstaad but he did nothing remarkable since then so I can’t see him winning against Tsitsipas. He lost in Auckland against Leonardo Mayer who is out of form from a long time. He faces Tsitsipas who ended the season by the best way winning the ATP Next Gen Finals and “lost” against Seppi in Sydney to be rested for the AO after winning against Andreozzi in straight sets.

Feliciano Lopez is 37 years old. He has not played any match since October. Jordan Thompson plays at home and won 2 challengers recently (Traralgon and Canberra) and did final in Calgary. In Sydney he won against Mannarino (6-3, 6-3), Taro Daniel (3-6, 7-6, 6-0) and lost in a good match against the winner of this tournament, Alex de Miñaur (6-7, 3-6).

Nothing much to say about Tiafoe. He faces a weak player that is in the main draw because he had easy players in the qualy.

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You call Gunneswaran a "weak player" (imo total BS as he reached four challenger finals in 2018, beat some good players like Shapovalov for example) but you wrote you can see Kecmanovic in Top 100 soon and he is so talented but Gunneswaran destroyed that guy 62 62 a couple of months ago. Gunneswaran is decent enough to put up a fight here and i can't help myself but this is looking like three bets that easily can win but so easily can lose as all of those opponents are looking tough or having their spots. Taking low odds like this in dangerous matchups is pure gambling, wouldn't recommend to bet on that. Especially backing Tsitsipas here at those odds is not really a good thing as he looked poor recently and i do not think you watched any of his matches this year otherwise you would say that he is making a lot of errors and his game isn't working at all right now. 

 

Edited by opole

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4 minutes ago, opole said:

You call Gunneswaran a "weak player" but you wrote you can see Kecmanovic in Top 100 soon and he is so talented but Gunneswaran destroyed that guy 62 62 a couple of months ago. Gunneswaran is decent enough to put up a fight here and i can't help myself but this is looking like three bets that easily can win but so easily can lose as all of those opponents are looking tough or having their spots. Taking low odds like this in dangerous matchups is pure gambling, wouldn't recommend to bet on that. Especially backing Tsitsipas here at those odds is not really a good thing as he looked poor recently and i do not think you watched any of his matches this year otherwise you would say that he is making a lot of errors and his game isn't working at all right now. 

I do not wish you the best luck as i already posted bets on Berrettini and Lopez so i need the luck on my own. But good luck with Tiafoe.;)

Do you really doubt that Kecmanovic will be at the top 100 soon? He’s 19 and he has the same Challenger titles than Gunneswaran who is 29. I think that Tsitsipas doesn’t need to be at 100% to beat Berrettini (who is not playing like he did when he exploded the last season). Anyway, the reasons I did this bet are already explained so I don’t wanna explain it again. We have different opinions, its normal. Best luck for you too.

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Berdych + Basilashvili (double) @ 2.03 with Sportingbet

Won't repeat with regards to Berdych - it has been covered extensively already. Basilashvili should have too much for the qualifier, especially given his impressive run in Doha, taking a set off Djokovic.

Edited by South_African_Punter

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Parlay

Pablo Carreno Busta to beat (-5.5) Luca Vanni at 1.73

Pablo has a huge chance of winning this in 3 sets and should cover a 5.5 line. They've met once in Spain on hardcourt and Pablo won that match by 7-6 6-0.

Tomas Berdych to beat Kyle Edmund at 1.46

Kyle is apparently carrying a knee injury and has the pressure to defend semifinal points. Under those circumstances it's not ideal to come up against an inform veteran and former top 5 player who in some way makes a deep run almost everytime he comes to Melbourne.

Roberto Bautista Agut to beat (-2.5 sets) Andy Murray at 2.14

Andy is in pain constantly nowadays and this might be his last match, he'll play through the pain but RBA will ofcourse win this easily. I can't see any way Andy will take a set under current circumstances from an inform RBA.

Total odds: 5.41 with Unibet

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