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CzechPunter

Australian Open 2019

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I'm on the side of Ebden being overrated, a poor man's Isner let's say, although with some small pluses. I was thinking about opposing Shapovalov as well and I really liked Andujar in the past, but seeing him fail twice at the start of the season in a not-so-great way isn't a great sign, he didn't stand much of a chance against Opelka and there was also that TB choke if I'm correct. I might very well end up backing him to win a set or something and I'd be all over it with some better performances, but the worry that I have is that he might easily be there just to collect the paycheck. If he wins set one, he could be really competitive and even win maybe, but an effortless 3-0 could be on the cards as well.

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14 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

I'm on the side of Ebden being overrated, a poor man's Isner let's say, although with some small pluses. I was thinking about opposing Shapovalov as well and I really liked Andujar in the past, but seeing him fail twice at the start of the season in a not-so-great way isn't a great sign, he didn't stand much of a chance against Opelka and there was also that TB choke if I'm correct. I might very well end up backing him to win a set or something and I'd be all over it with some better performances, but the worry that I have is that he might easily be there just to collect the paycheck. If he wins set one, he could be really competitive and even win maybe, but an effortless 3-0 could be on the cards as well.

What? A poor mans Isner? This would be the last comparison i would have made haha. Ebden is playing with so much variety. He has a good backhand, solid serve, great net game as he is a very skilled doubles player and he knows how to change pace. A thing that is not very common in 2018/2019 while almost all youngsters trying to hit as hard as they can (maybe de Minaur is a good example for not doing that). Ebden is probably one of those guys who underachieved big as he was plagued by several injuries during the past and in his prime. Of course he is no elite athlete and no Top 20 player or something but his game style is definitely underrated, as he is more exciting and more dangerous than most think if they only take a look at his results.

And i agree. Andujar is probably the best example for betting on the set handicap. I think we might get a good prize for +2.5 sets and in the end i expect Shapovalov going through but having some problems, probably in four sets. 

Edited by opole

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Just now, CzechPunter said:

He definitely has more variety than Isner, there's no doubt about that, but he's much less resilient mentally imo. Yep, there's a good price on +2.5 sets/Over 3.5 sets, but boy am I scared about that Opelka result.

I am too, the reason why i took nothing yet BUT i think we can't compare those two tournaments. He came straight from Pune, late arrival in Sydney and now he had some time there and is playing a big tournament where one or two wins can guarantee an income he won't make in ten tournaments like Sydney. The match vs. Donskoy in Sydney was good though, if he plays like that he should win a set at least, Shapovalov is in awful form, he looked horrible vs. Sousa, spraying erros left and right. 

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Yep, but the alternative explanation is that he just went on a nice little India-Australia tour just to collect some money before getting back to clay. I'd be shocked to see him beat both Shapo and Kokkinakis (or even Daniel honestly) back-to-back.

And yeah, I do agree with you on Jaziri. If he's fit, he should be a small favorite. Perhaps a match for live betting, but I'm not sure that I'll want to go through all those sleepless nights this year after going through them for several years straight. You can smile about it and feel good when things are going your way, but it's doubly shitty when they aren't.

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Karolina Muchova to beat Karolina Pliskova at 5.00 with 888

Karo will have to face one of the toughest qualifiers. I still remember when Muchova won against Muguruza in the US Open (she also beat there Yastremska easily in straight sets). In the last tournament (Brisbane) she won in the qualy against Cabrera (6-2, 6-2) and Yastremska again (6-2, 5-1) but lost in the first round against Potapova in a three-set match. Well, Yastremska retired when Muchova was 5-1 and 40-0 in the 2nd set and it’s not the first time (I think we all know the reason why she did). Muchova has easily won her qualification matches against Rodionova (6-2, 6-4), Samsonova (6-4, 6-0) and Loeb (6-4, 6-1). I know Karo is in a good moment (she won in Brisbane) but I just like the odds.

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Pablo Andujar +2.5 (set handicap) @ 2.24 Pinnacle 3/10

Look above.

Steve Darcis +2.5 (set handicap) @ 2.00 Pinnacle 4/10

I think Darcis is a living dog here, he looked really good in Pune although he was out more than one year but he is a very good player and i expect Coric to be rusty. Wouldn't be shocked if Darcis wins this but still no idea if he has the stamina to play four or five sets but i expect Darcis to win at least one set here.

Harris/Medvedev over 33.5 (total games) @ 1.943 Pinnacle 4/10

Opelka/Isner over 46 (total games) @ 2.12 Pinnacle 4/10

Kyrgios/Raonic over 44.5 (total games) @ 1.909 Pinnacle 4/10

Three matches where really big servers facing each other. Can't see many breaks there and i do not think they all win three tiebreakers in a row. Expect four or five sets in all of those matches with a lot of tiebreakers.

Majchrzak/Nishikori under 29 (total games) @ 1.98 Pinnacle 4/10

Nishikori is a dark horse for the tournament, he looked really good in Brisbane and i expect him to start strong, he isn't the type of a player who is playing with 50-60% in the first rounds and Majchrzak is nothing special, can't see him troubling Nishikori. Expect a result like 6-4 6-3 6-2 so the bet should win. 

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Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to beat Robin Haase at 1.82 with Unibet

GG-Lopez has looked awfully good so far this season and Robin looked awfully bad. Can remember last summer when they last met and GG-Lopez had an outstanding match on grass in Antalya. I'm all over GG-Lopez on this price, good enough for me.

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1 minute ago, eros said:
Benoit Paire - Dominic Thiem
Spielquoten - Match - ATP Australian Open - R1
Benoit Paire @ 3.70 Pinnacle
5/10
 
Paire imo is a top 10 candidate, but he still didn't get the jump into it. his biggest problem is his mentality and his forehand. But I think, he's always a dangerous oponent with a good serve and nice backhand. Thiem is a desaster right now, no win in 2019, rather in Abu Dhabi nor in Melbourne. An advance for Thiem maybe is, that he already is in Australia for a week. One information I have is, that Thiem ist laboring on a small flu right now. All in all I'll try Paire. These low odds on Thiem are a big joke imo.
 
 
 
 
 
 

Been thinking about Benoit myself and reading this I think I'll put a huge stake on him because I said it before Melbourne that Dom is a player we should oppose until at least the clay season begins.

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8 hours ago, money44 said:

28-44 +30.37 units 

Australian Open Round 1 (Hope to turn a small profit, use as reference. Second set of matches will be generic lines taken from an odds site.  They will be available on various books shortly but i'm heading out of town. gday folks ! :ok All Plays is one unit each

Sportsbook: 5dimes

Opelka 2.8
Alex Bolt 3.4
Polmans 3.75
Mannarino 7.5
Tipsarevic 12.0
Del Bonis 4.6
Gojowczyk 6.3
Klizan 3.75
Mcdonald 2.6
Tomic 4.55
Paire 3.9
Siegemund 3.8
Ferro 7.63
Kozlova 3.2
Barthel 5.05
Arraubarena Vecino 5.4
Aiava 4.4
Sorribes Tormo 5.25
Riske 3.85

Andujar 6.23
Jakupovic 5.4
Krueger 29.1(pinnacle)
Haddad Maia 1.9(5dimes)
Pablo Cuevas 2.9
Majchrzak 12.51(pinnacle)
Vanni 3.99
Schmiedlova 4.25(5dimes)
Kalinskaya 4.83
Krajinovic 1.9(5dimes)
Christian Garin 6.54
Whitney Osuigwe 3.79(pinnacle)

 

 


 

Of all those bets you missed to write down Johanna Larsson to beat Vera Lapko :lol

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Zoe Hives @ 1.87 Betfair 4/10

Can't say Mattek-Sands is "back" at all, she is 2-13 since coming back in Miami last year in March. Now she is facing a tough challenge as Hives is looking great recently beating Wickmayer and Larsson and losing a close match to big-time prospect Potapova. I can't say this are correct odds at the moment, i expect Hives to bring everything and this should be enough for current version of BMS.

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Double acca

Zoe Hives to beat Bethanie Mattek Sands at 1.83

Benoit Paire +5.5 at 1.90

Total odds: 3.48 with Unibet 

@opole Zoe should be a great bet and Benoit can obviously lose this match with his mental state of mind that cost him so mutch over his career but I don't think Dominic Thiem is in any position to be a heavy favourite on fast hardcourt right now. He is not liking it down under and Benoit is good when he's on top of his game so this should be even enough for the bet to come in.

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Steve Darcis (+2.5 sets) to beat Borna Coric at 2.00 with Pinnacle

Darcis is clearly hungry after the long absence, while Coric has only played two exhibitions without doing anything special in them. As has already been stated, it's hard to know if Darcis is ready for a long match, but a set should be fully within his range.

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I like the bet on Paire. I do not rate Thiem on hardcourt at all. I mean take a look at his GS hardcourd record for the last five years. Thiem is a Top 10 player for a while now and was even ranked inside Top 5 and his record is pathetic:

QF US Open 2018

R4 Australian Open 2018

R4 US Open 2017

R4 Australian Open 2017

R4 US Open 2016

R3 Australian Open 2016

R3 US Open 2015

R1 Australian Open 2015

R4 US Open 2014

R2 Australian Open 2014

Only once he reached the second week of a hardcourt slam in his whole career. Pathetic display for a current Top 10 player IMO.

Paire is a headcase player and i do not like him at all BUT

1. he is always playable as a massive underdog

2. he should have beaten Thiem before in Melbourne as he was the better player in 2017 but lost a four set match with being up a break in the fourth set but losing four games in a row there from 4-2 up to 4-6.

I think this is a good bet.

Edited by opole

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Aljaz Bedene @ 6.19 Pinnacle 2/10

Zverev has some issues with his body right now. He picked up an injury in one of his last practice sessions in Melbourne and also had some minor problems with his hamstring before so he had to pull out of Adelaide exo. Bedene is a dangerous player and i think he might have a chance here.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/tennis/australian-open-2019-injury-fears-for-no4-seed-alexander-zverev-after-going-down-hurt-in-practice-match/news-story/af30013cf8084d0297ce52aab7f432a9?nk=cc5c3e04c43856d16167b388fd088d91-1547231369

Edited by opole

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38 minutes ago, opole said:

Zoe Hives @ 1.87 Betfair 4/10

Can't say Mattek-Sands is "back" at all, she is 2-13 since coming back in Miami last year in March. Now she is facing a tough challenge as Hives is looking great recently beating Wickmayer and Larsson and losing a close match to big-time prospect Potapova. I can't say this are correct odds at the moment, i expect Hives to bring everything and this should be enough for current version of BMS.

Well… that 2-13 is debatable. You can’t compare the players that BMS has faced with the ITF players that Zoe has played. It’s true that she has lost most of her matches but she took some sets in most of them against good players (Su Wei Hsieh, Schmiedlova, Van Uytvanck, Madison Keys,..). 

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Just now, darko08 said:

Well… that 2-13 is debatable. You can’t compare the players that BMS has faced with the ITF players that Zoe has played. It’s true that she has lost most of her matches but she took some sets in most of them against good players (Su Wei Hsieh, Schmiedlova, Van Uytvanck, Madison Keys,..). 

It's not about the opposition it's about having absolutely ZERO confidence. Especially women tennis 80% about confidence. Hives played no ITF opposition recently, she played vs. three Top 100 opponents and beat another former Top 15 opponent (WIckmayer).

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Double acca

Christian Garin to beat David Goffin at 5.50

Steve Darcis +2.5 sets at 1.87

Total odds: 10.28 with Unibet

Christian is a player I rate about as high as Nicolas Jarry on hardcourt grass and clay and Nico Jarry is capable and Christian Garin have shown he can do some good stuff to. David kicked off his season with a loss to Ricardas Berankis and it didn't look good then and I have some problems backing a player like David on these fast hardcourt surfaces where he usually is in trouble and Davids form is not looking to hot either since quite some time now. @CzechPunter I didn't get any higher odds on Steve +2.5 sets but I'll take it anyway, Unibet had 1.97 earlier about 4 hours ago but I guess they found out it could be a pretty good bet.

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Adding some shorter prices to the line-up, not sure I'm going to add much more for the first round.

Benoit Paire (+2.5 sets) to beat Dominic Thiem at 1.58 with Pinnacle

Fernando Verdasco to beat Miomir Kecmanovic at 1.55 with Pinnacle

Pablo Carreno-Busta (-1.5 sets) to beat Luca Vanni at 1.53 with Paddy Power

Enough has already been said about Paire and I fully agree, while Verdasco and PCB should be too strong for Kecmanovic and Vanni. I get that Kecmanovic is on a good run of form, but Verdasco played decently against Berdych and he should be fit given the exhbitions he's played, so he shouldn't go out in R1 of what's one of his favourite tournaments. Meanwhile, Vanni just isn't a good player and he shouldn't be able to get anything off his serve against someone as good in defense as PCB.

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Treble parlay

Yoshito Nishioka to beat (-2.5 games) Tennys Sandgren at 2.05

Fernando Verdasco to beat Miomir Kecmanovic at 1.48

Benoit Paire to beat (+2.5 sets) Dominic Thiem at 1.48

Total odds: 4.49 with Unibet

I've already backed Tennys to win the Auckland final in straight sets and in first round of AO he faces Yoshi who is all that takes to end Tennys chances of defending his AO points. I think Yoshi is very good and should climb to top 50 this season. He may have his limits but I think he's a better player than Tennys and there's no guarantees he will have a great time in Melbourne like last year but there's more likely he goes out earlier now. Say he wins his first ATP title and then goes out in first round of the next tournament. It often happens and it's a quite big risk it might happen this time and if he does I think Yoshi can cover the spread.

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58 minutes ago, opole said:

It's not about the opposition it's about having absolutely ZERO confidence. Especially women tennis 80% about confidence. Hives played no ITF opposition recently, she played vs. three Top 100 opponents and beat another former Top 15 opponent (WIckmayer).

Confidence is important but there is a big difference between ITF/WTA events. If BMS would have played ITF events her record would be better than that. Yeah, she won against a top 100 player but BMS won also against her the last year in straight sets (Johanna Larsson).  Anyway, take a WC against BMS with odds below 2.00 i think is too risky, that’s all. Maybe Im wrong, we will see.

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