Australian Open 2019

[CzechPunter]

Yep, but the alternative explanation is that he just went on a nice little India-Australia tour just to collect some money before getting back to clay. I'd be shocked to see him beat both Shapo and Kokkinakis (or even Daniel honestly) back-to-back.

And yeah, I do agree with you on Jaziri. If he's fit, he should be a small favorite. Perhaps a match for live betting, but I'm not sure that I'll want to go through all those sleepless nights this year after going through them for several years straight. You can smile about it and feel good when things are going your way, but it's doubly shitty when they aren't.

[darko08]

Karolina Muchova to beat Karolina Pliskova at 5.00 with 888

Karo will have to face one of the toughest qualifiers. I still remember when Muchova won against Muguruza in the US Open (she also beat there Yastremska easily in straight sets). In the last tournament (Brisbane) she won in the qualy against Cabrera (6-2, 6-2) and Yastremska again (6-2, 5-1) but lost in the first round against Potapova in a three-set match. Well, Yastremska retired when Muchova was 5-1 and 40-0 in the 2nd set and it’s not the first time (I think we all know the reason why she did). Muchova has easily won her qualification matches against Rodionova (6-2, 6-4), Samsonova (6-4, 6-0) and Loeb (6-4, 6-1). I know Karo is in a good moment (she won in Brisbane) but I just like the odds.

[opole]

Pablo Andujar +2.5 (set handicap) @ 2.24 Pinnacle 3/10

Look above.

Steve Darcis +2.5 (set handicap) @ 2.00 Pinnacle 4/10

I think Darcis is a living dog here, he looked really good in Pune although he was out more than one year but he is a very good player and i expect Coric to be rusty. Wouldn't be shocked if Darcis wins this but still no idea if he has the stamina to play four or five sets but i expect Darcis to win at least one set here.

Harris/Medvedev over 33.5 (total games) @ 1.943 Pinnacle 4/10

Opelka/Isner over 46 (total games) @ 2.12 Pinnacle 4/10

Kyrgios/Raonic over 44.5 (total games) @ 1.909 Pinnacle 4/10

Three matches where really big servers facing each other. Can't see many breaks there and i do not think they all win three tiebreakers in a row. Expect four or five sets in all of those matches with a lot of tiebreakers.

Majchrzak/Nishikori under 29 (total games) @ 1.98 Pinnacle 4/10

Nishikori is a dark horse for the tournament, he looked really good in Brisbane and i expect him to start strong, he isn't the type of a player who is playing with 50-60% in the first rounds and Majchrzak is nothing special, can't see him troubling Nishikori. Expect a result like 6-4 6-3 6-2 so the bet should win. 

[four-leaf]

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to beat Robin Haase at 1.82 with Unibet

GG-Lopez has looked awfully good so far this season and Robin looked awfully bad. Can remember last summer when they last met and GG-Lopez had an outstanding match on grass in Antalya. I'm all over GG-Lopez on this price, good enough for me.

[four-leaf]

Except for having a bet on GG-Lopez I've followed many of your picks @opole on first page like Damir Dzumhur and Mischa Zverev.

[four-leaf]

1 minute ago, eros said:

Benoit Paire - Dominic Thiem

Spielquoten - Match - ATP Australian Open - R1
Benoit Paire @ 3.70 Pinnacle
5/10

 

Paire imo is a top 10 candidate, but he still didn't get the jump into it. his biggest problem is his mentality and his forehand. But I think, he's always a dangerous oponent with a good serve and nice backhand. Thiem is a desaster right now, no win in 2019, rather in Abu Dhabi nor in Melbourne. An advance for Thiem maybe is, that he already is in Australia for a week. One information I have is, that Thiem ist laboring on a small flu right now. All in all I'll try Paire. These low odds on Thiem are a big joke imo.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Been thinking about Benoit myself and reading this I think I'll put a huge stake on him because I said it before Melbourne that Dom is a player we should oppose until at least the clay season begins.

[four-leaf]

8 hours ago, money44 said:

28-44 +30.37 units 

Australian Open Round 1 (Hope to turn a small profit, use as reference. Second set of matches will be generic lines taken from an odds site.  They will be available on various books shortly but i'm heading out of town. gday folks !  All Plays is one unit each

Sportsbook: 5dimes

Opelka 2.8
Alex Bolt 3.4
Polmans 3.75
Mannarino 7.5
Tipsarevic 12.0
Del Bonis 4.6
Gojowczyk 6.3
Klizan 3.75
Mcdonald 2.6
Tomic 4.55
Paire 3.9
Siegemund 3.8
Ferro 7.63
Kozlova 3.2
Barthel 5.05
Arraubarena Vecino 5.4
Aiava 4.4
Sorribes Tormo 5.25
Riske 3.85

Andujar 6.23
Jakupovic 5.4
Krueger 29.1(pinnacle)
Haddad Maia 1.9(5dimes)
Pablo Cuevas 2.9
Majchrzak 12.51(pinnacle)
Vanni 3.99
Schmiedlova 4.25(5dimes)
Kalinskaya 4.83
Krajinovic 1.9(5dimes)
Christian Garin 6.54
Whitney Osuigwe 3.79(pinnacle)
 

 

 

Of all those bets you missed to write down Johanna Larsson to beat Vera Lapko 

[opole]

Zoe Hives @ 1.87 Betfair 4/10

Can't say Mattek-Sands is "back" at all, she is 2-13 since coming back in Miami last year in March. Now she is facing a tough challenge as Hives is looking great recently beating Wickmayer and Larsson and losing a close match to big-time prospect Potapova. I can't say this are correct odds at the moment, i expect Hives to bring everything and this should be enough for current version of BMS.

[four-leaf]

Double acca

Zoe Hives to beat Bethanie Mattek Sands at 1.83

Benoit Paire +5.5 at 1.90

Total odds: 3.48 with Unibet 

@opole Zoe should be a great bet and Benoit can obviously lose this match with his mental state of mind that cost him so mutch over his career but I don't think Dominic Thiem is in any position to be a heavy favourite on fast hardcourt right now. He is not liking it down under and Benoit is good when he's on top of his game so this should be even enough for the bet to come in.

[CzechPunter]

Steve Darcis (+2.5 sets) to beat Borna Coric at 2.00 with Pinnacle

Darcis is clearly hungry after the long absence, while Coric has only played two exhibitions without doing anything special in them. As has already been stated, it's hard to know if Darcis is ready for a long match, but a set should be fully within his range.

[opole]

I like the bet on Paire. I do not rate Thiem on hardcourt at all. I mean take a look at his GS hardcourd record for the last five years. Thiem is a Top 10 player for a while now and was even ranked inside Top 5 and his record is pathetic:

QF US Open 2018

R4 Australian Open 2018

R4 US Open 2017

R4 Australian Open 2017

R4 US Open 2016

R3 Australian Open 2016

R3 US Open 2015

R1 Australian Open 2015

R4 US Open 2014

R2 Australian Open 2014

Only once he reached the second week of a hardcourt slam in his whole career. Pathetic display for a current Top 10 player IMO.

Paire is a headcase player and i do not like him at all BUT

1. he is always playable as a massive underdog

2. he should have beaten Thiem before in Melbourne as he was the better player in 2017 but lost a four set match with being up a break in the fourth set but losing four games in a row there from 4-2 up to 4-6.

I think this is a good bet.

Edited January 11, 2019 by opole

[opole]

Aljaz Bedene @ 6.19 Pinnacle 2/10

Zverev has some issues with his body right now. He picked up an injury in one of his last practice sessions in Melbourne and also had some minor problems with his hamstring before so he had to pull out of Adelaide exo. Bedene is a dangerous player and i think he might have a chance here.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/tennis/australian-open-2019-injury-fears-for-no4-seed-alexander-zverev-after-going-down-hurt-in-practice-match/news-story/af30013cf8084d0297ce52aab7f432a9?nk=cc5c3e04c43856d16167b388fd088d91-1547231369

Edited January 11, 2019 by opole

[darko08]

38 minutes ago, opole said:

Zoe Hives @ 1.87 Betfair 4/10

Can't say Mattek-Sands is "back" at all, she is 2-13 since coming back in Miami last year in March. Now she is facing a tough challenge as Hives is looking great recently beating Wickmayer and Larsson and losing a close match to big-time prospect Potapova. I can't say this are correct odds at the moment, i expect Hives to bring everything and this should be enough for current version of BMS.

Well… that 2-13 is debatable. You can’t compare the players that BMS has faced with the ITF players that Zoe has played. It’s true that she has lost most of her matches but she took some sets in most of them against good players (Su Wei Hsieh, Schmiedlova, Van Uytvanck, Madison Keys,..). 

[opole]

Just now, darko08 said:

Well… that 2-13 is debatable. You can’t compare the players that BMS has faced with the ITF players that Zoe has played. It’s true that she has lost most of her matches but she took some sets in most of them against good players (Su Wei Hsieh, Schmiedlova, Van Uytvanck, Madison Keys,..). 

It's not about the opposition it's about having absolutely ZERO confidence. Especially women tennis 80% about confidence. Hives played no ITF opposition recently, she played vs. three Top 100 opponents and beat another former Top 15 opponent (WIckmayer).

[four-leaf]

Double acca

Christian Garin to beat David Goffin at 5.50

Steve Darcis +2.5 sets at 1.87

Total odds: 10.28 with Unibet

Christian is a player I rate about as high as Nicolas Jarry on hardcourt grass and clay and Nico Jarry is capable and Christian Garin have shown he can do some good stuff to. David kicked off his season with a loss to Ricardas Berankis and it didn't look good then and I have some problems backing a player like David on these fast hardcourt surfaces where he usually is in trouble and Davids form is not looking to hot either since quite some time now. @CzechPunter I didn't get any higher odds on Steve +2.5 sets but I'll take it anyway, Unibet had 1.97 earlier about 4 hours ago but I guess they found out it could be a pretty good bet.

[CzechPunter]

Adding some shorter prices to the line-up, not sure I'm going to add much more for the first round.

Benoit Paire (+2.5 sets) to beat Dominic Thiem at 1.58 with Pinnacle

Fernando Verdasco to beat Miomir Kecmanovic at 1.55 with Pinnacle

Pablo Carreno-Busta (-1.5 sets) to beat Luca Vanni at 1.53 with Paddy Power

Enough has already been said about Paire and I fully agree, while Verdasco and PCB should be too strong for Kecmanovic and Vanni. I get that Kecmanovic is on a good run of form, but Verdasco played decently against Berdych and he should be fit given the exhbitions he's played, so he shouldn't go out in R1 of what's one of his favourite tournaments. Meanwhile, Vanni just isn't a good player and he shouldn't be able to get anything off his serve against someone as good in defense as PCB.

[four-leaf]

Treble parlay

Yoshito Nishioka to beat (-2.5 games) Tennys Sandgren at 2.05

Fernando Verdasco to beat Miomir Kecmanovic at 1.48

Benoit Paire to beat (+2.5 sets) Dominic Thiem at 1.48

Total odds: 4.49 with Unibet

I've already backed Tennys to win the Auckland final in straight sets and in first round of AO he faces Yoshi who is all that takes to end Tennys chances of defending his AO points. I think Yoshi is very good and should climb to top 50 this season. He may have his limits but I think he's a better player than Tennys and there's no guarantees he will have a great time in Melbourne like last year but there's more likely he goes out earlier now. Say he wins his first ATP title and then goes out in first round of the next tournament. It often happens and it's a quite big risk it might happen this time and if he does I think Yoshi can cover the spread.

[darko08]

58 minutes ago, opole said:

It's not about the opposition it's about having absolutely ZERO confidence. Especially women tennis 80% about confidence. Hives played no ITF opposition recently, she played vs. three Top 100 opponents and beat another former Top 15 opponent (WIckmayer).

Confidence is important but there is a big difference between ITF/WTA events. If BMS would have played ITF events her record would be better than that. Yeah, she won against a top 100 player but BMS won also against her the last year in straight sets (Johanna Larsson).  Anyway, take a WC against BMS with odds below 2.00 i think is too risky, that’s all. Maybe Im wrong, we will see.

[DrO]

Why is Karolina Pliskova 1.40 vs Muchova?
I miss something here?

She won Brisbane and it's seems that she's in good shape.

[four-leaf]

4 minutes ago, DrO said:

Why is Karolina Pliskova 1.40 vs Muchova?
I miss something here?

She won Brisbane and it's seems that she's in good shape.

Probably because Muchova is overrated but mostly unknown reason

[darko08]

10 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Probably because Muchova is overrated but mostly unknown reason

Lol. When i did my bet Muchova was 5.00 and Karo 1.10 or something like that. These odds were ridiculous and now looks normal to me.

[opole]

Muchova is overrated and Pliskova should win it quite easily. I watched a lot of Pliskova in Brisbane and she looked in superb shape. She is at least one class above Muchova. Can't see the Muchova hype by the way and i backed her vs. Yastremska at the beginning of the season but still no idea why she should beat Pliskova who is one of the favorites to win the whole tournament. Wouldn't even touch her at odds 5-6. 

Edited January 11, 2019 by opole

[aussietennisexpert]

My 2c on kiki vs Alison 

Watched Kiki play Ash Barty and the match before .. and watched Alison in China.. 

I think Alison will at most take a set from Kiki .. she can’t sustain the level needed to beat these sort of players over a whole match.. she got very close many times last year but ...

However an upset may come if Kiki gets frustrated when Alison plays very well for more than a set. 

 

I had my eyes on Alison for an upset here but I don’t think it can be against Kiki!

[Grass Cash]

Muchova seems underrated by a alot , but I agree Pliskova wins easily 

[Grass Cash]

1 hour ago, aussietennisexpert said:

My 2c on kiki vs Alison 

Watched Kiki play Ash Barty and the match before .. and watched Alison in China.. 

I think Alison will at most take a set from Kiki .. she can’t sustain the level needed to beat these sort of players over a whole match.. she got very close many times last year but ...

However an upset may come if Kiki gets frustrated when Alison plays very well for more than a set. 

 

I had my eyes on Alison for an upset here but I don’t think it can be against Kiki!

Allison might surprise .. the problem with Bertens is she has some lingering injuries, and isn't really a passionate tennis player like some others.. She also happens to get nervous and choke matches.. She is not in top form at the moment... She gave Barty a great match , but Barty hasn't peaked either this year... Ashleigh has grand slams in her future.. Beast of a player, and she might make a deep run in this tournament as well. When Barty is in good form .. she rarely disssapoints. Her fitness is better... and I see Barty sitting around # 4-7 in the rankings by years end.  

I did not watch the matches in China with allison tho ... so I'm out of the loop 

[Grass Cash]

had a problem with the like button registering .. I clicked on and off a couple .. was troubleshooting it a bit .. I like some of your guys recent posts .. And also .. I do think Bedene stands a chance vs Zverev.. I'm not adding it to my card, because I already bet 100 players, but I always prefer to lay Zverev when possible.. You could hit that one 

[four-leaf]

Ok now I got to drop the bomb..

Mikhail Kukushkin to beat Lucas Pouille at 2.63 with Unibet

I'm gonna have a big stake on this one. If Mikhail has maintained his form from the end of last season he's gonna win this. Lucas have never reached the second round in AO, out in first round 4 times. Mikhail is notoriously good in grand slams and davis cup or you could say he's an excellent best of 5 sets player. He can certainly nick this matchup. And it wasn't just at the end of last season Mikhail was good, he was acctually pretty good all of 2018. High confidence in Mikhail from my side.

Edit: the downside on this bet is that Lucas have never lost in a best of 5 to Mikhail, beaten him twice in 4 sets in US open. Is this bet worth it @CzechPunter?

Edited January 12, 2019 by four-leaf

[opole]

I am not so sure about Kukushkin being in shape for the Open and i am not so sure this is a good prize to take. He had to defend a quarterfinal in Pune and wasn't playing there, also isn't playing this week either. He posted pics on Instagram where he was on vacation in the mid of December. Furthermore he lost six times in a row in the first round at AO, last time he won a match there was in 2012. I do not consider Pouille as in form recently losing all four matches in 2019 and i didn't watch the Rublev match, his serving stats were horrible (under 50% points won on first serve!!) but i think his record in Melbourne is a bit misleading as he came to Melbourne without match rythm and practice last season and he was injured two years ago vs. Bublik + had to play two top guys in 2016 and 2015 (Monfils & Raonic). There are too many questionmarks over Kukushkin and his form/shape to take him with those odds IMO. But nevertheless good luck with your bet, Kukushkin is a great player but lacking mental strength and a strong body otherwise he would be a regular Top 20 player.

[Grass Cash]

Some players each of us have preference to bet on .. I have not had luck Kukushkin , but last time I missed a bet with him when i want to bet him vs Rublev in vienna indoors... So its better value in my mind on mikhail than getting juiced with Pouille...

[opole]

7 minutes ago, money44 said:

Some players each of us have preference to bet on .. I have not had luck Kukushkin , but last time I missed a bet with him when i want to bet him vs Rublev in vienna indoors... So its better value in my mind on mikhail than getting juiced with Pouille...

I would not bet a penny on Pouille right now but still there is a big questionmark over Kukushkin as he pulled out of the Doha main draw and the Sydney qualifying draw due to an injury.