Weekend > Mar 4th - 6th

[StevieDay1983]

[KikoCy]

• Swansea
• West Brom BTTS
• Soton
• Liverpool BTTS

Will come back on Friday with some analysis...

 

[StevieDay1983]

@Tiffy, great job on that Leicester pick. I'm not sure how to react to that result. It's too little, too late if you ask me. If they could do that now then why not when Ranieri was in charge? I hope they go down now.

@KikoCy, getting your picks in early! Looking forward to seeing what else you have later in the week.

@neilovan, @DrBetter, and @Notorious, you both had selections for the Leicester versus Liverpool game ruined by the Foxes. Reckon they can beat Hull this weekend?

@betcatalog, you were spot on with your over 2.5 goals calls. Well played. Looking forward to seeing your BTTS or goals scored bets this week.

@mrclubbie, great shout with your Spurs bet. What are you looking to back here?

@WinningAdvice, you also backed Leicester with your bet. What are you thinking this week?

@Icongene, you didn't pay attention to the TTR Theory that @Mindfulness mentioned!  What do you think here?

@Division, a solid pick from you last week backing West Brom. Keen to hear your thoughts on these games.

@andrewcalo, are you backing your lads to beat Burnley at home? Another win would really boost your survival chances and put last week's defeat firmly behind you.

@allyhibs, you also backed West Brom. A strong call. What do you like the look of this week?

@Pep004, what does your in-depth analysis suggest for this weekend?

@sajtion, Hull let you down last weekend. They were some wise picks though with logic behind them. Looking forward to see what you're backing this weekend.

@vasilli07, you were bang on about Crystal Palace. Can they win again this weekend?

Also keen to hear from previous contributors such as @Bett, @Bronxie, @Feduloff, and @Masih.

[Mindfulness]

@vasilli07 Was spot on with his analysis of Palace in previous thread. An uninteruptted 2 week period of training has allowed Allardyce to develop the team and incorporate his new signings to good affect.

Things of note from Middlesbrough game:

Palace reverted to a flat back 4 in what was essentially a 4-1-4-1 module with Sakho starting alongside Tomkins in heart of defence while Milivojevic was deployed as the midfield pivot. One of my main gripes with Palace over the last year or so is a lack of assuredness and leadership through the spine of the team. Both Sakho and Milivojevic performed well on Saturday and it finally looks like we are starting to develop some backbone.

We almost had a fully fit squad for Middlesbrough game and competition for places is strong; Dann, McArthur and Schlupp all started from the bench and the added competition for places is boosting the performance levels of the players that do start such as Townsend, Puncheon and Cabaye.

The 4-1-4-1 module has improved our attacking play as we now push forward in greater numbers and provide better support for Benteke. Having players like Van Aanholt and Schlupp is great because they both have good engines and get up and down the flanks well to provide overlaps for Townsend and Zaha.

I do feel we were handed a circumstantial advantage against Middlesbrough as they had a personnel crisis in the full-back positions. Karanka had to revert to a 3 man defense due to missing players and this really played into our hands with Zaha and Townsend giving makeshift wing-back Downing a torrid time.

I feel it was a deserved win for Palace as we played with confidence and performed well throughout the game. Credit to the fans who got behind the team, important if we are to win our home games.

Heading into the West Brom game:

Be interesting to see the Palace team news nearer the time as I believe both Cabaye and Zaha took knocks in the Middlesbrough game

You can be sure that West Brom are one of the EPL teams that do not hit the beach early. You play for your place under Pulis, often he will start someone with overall less quality as a fooballer simply because they work harder and follow his instructions to the letter. They may have reached the magical 40pt mark but I do not expect them to drop off from here. I remember when Pulis managed Palace, we performed really well right to the end of the campaign and ended up finishing 11th which was extremely impressive given the state of our team when he joined. Now compare them to Stoke Those glamour boys are hitting the great barrier reef as we speak, right on schedule.

I feel Palace can pickup a positive result on Saturday but it will be tough. West Brom are so good with their attacking set-pieces and will look to exploit any weakness from Hennessey as they did with Boruc at the weekend.

Will try and post something regarding the other matches later in the week.

[vasilli07]

I don't think Allardyce has lost his magic of helping teams escape relegation. Alan Pardew was more of an attacking minded manager, that's why I felt Allardyce needed more time to work with his players on their playing mentality.

 

[Icongene]

I think it's going to take more than a 1-0 win against the lowest scorers in the league to convince me that all of a sudden this woeful Palace team have grasped his methods and are on the way up. Next game is huge. If they can take 3 points then they have a real building block to move from.

[andrewcalo]

This week looks deadly straight-forward. 

Does not surprise me as after Christmas break there were two weeks of straight-forwards results.

Lump on gentlemen time to rape the bookies!

Edited March 1, 2017 by andrewcalo

[sajtion]

i don't know why bookies are making southampton favorite. i am very happy to take watford, swansea, leicester in a treble. i would love to see middlesborough nick a narrow victory against stoke so i might consider a handicap on them. 

[Icongene]

@sajtion 

I'll be on Watford DnB (2.5) this weekend for sure. Southampton continually blow hot and cold and I think it will take a game or two to re-focus after the Cup final.

[sajtion]

that's what i was thinking as well. i was thinking maybe to go with a draw but a loss in league cup final may affect their confidence. they can be good on their day but this is trip away for them and watford have been in decent form at home so i have to give them the benefit of doubt to just edge it

[Mindfulness]

The Watford V Southampton fixture is probably the most interesting game from a betting perspective. On the surface it looks like markets have lost their minds with big + for home team but unfortunately it's more complicated than that.

I was very critical of Southampton a couple of weeks back, they immediately went to Sunderland and crushed them 0-4. Fairly meaningless in isolation but it was followed up with a strong performance in the league cup final. Clearly Southampton's defense is vulnerable atm but they are quick and direct in the construction phase of the game and Gabbiadini is bang in form as their spearhead.

Mazzarri has done well at Watford imo but they struggle to find consistency due to many injury problems this campaign. Their physical, high octane style takes its toll and you never really know which Watford is going to show up in games. Their backline is poor imo and they struggle to defend flank attacks (an area which Southampton excel in). Amrabat and Janmaat are injury doubts this weekend so Watford could line up: Cathcart - Kaboul - Prodl - Holebas. Southampton could really cause that setup problems with Cedric and Bertrand down the flanks.

We should also look at ELO here which gives nearly a full goal advantage to Southampton. I agree with @Icongene about questioning Southampton after playing in a cup final but it's very hard to gauge something like that.

Put it this way, I would never take Southampton here, even on the -0.25 line, but Watford +0.50 is potential public bet death trap. The mind boggles with this game it really does, smelling salts on standby.

[andrewcalo]

4 hours ago, sajtion said:

i don't know why bookies are making southampton favorite. i am very happy to take watford, swansea, leicester in a treble. i would love to see middlesborough nick a narrow victory against stoke so i might consider a handicap on them. 

Did you see how quality Soton were in the final last week?

[WinningAdvice]

After acing my Leicester bet last week, I'm definitely still backing them to win against Hull with -0.74 @ 2.12 in SBOBET.
 

Also put bets on Man United win and a draw (my favourite) on Liverpool vs Arsenal clash. 

[StevieDay1983]

A lot of talk about this key Watford versus Southampton game. It's a minefield for me so I'm going to steer well clear. Both sides as inconsistent as the other. The key player for me is Gabbiadini. He's started off like a rocket for the Saints. If he can continue that form then it's a Southampton win. The potential catch is the EFL Cup Final hangover. My gut reaction is to back a draw but I'm likely to leave this one well alone.

[allyhibs]

I've backed West Brom for the second week running.

Palace won narrowly last week but I don't think they've turned the corner under Allardyce (arse) and are still a poor side. Albion have very solid home form and the odds have a tiny bit of value imo. West Brom win at 23/20.

[StevieDay1983]

16 minutes ago, allyhibs said:

I've backed West Brom for the second week running.

Palace won narrowly last week but I don't think they've turned the corner under Allardyce (arse) and are still a poor side. Albion have very solid home form and the odds have a tiny bit of value imo. West Brom win at 23/20.

I agree. I think Palace are taking one relegation spot. Not sure what it is but they just aren't showing me they are good enough. Having Zaha back will help them but he's not that good to keep an entire side up... unlike Jermain Defoe! I think that's a great shout. I'd back West Brom to win to nil as well potentially.

[Tanktop]

Anyone else fancy Leicester? Hull have been piss-poor away from home (D1 L7 in last 8 away). Whilst liverpool were bad last week, Leicester showed why they won the league last year with an impessive display. 

[StevieDay1983]

35 minutes ago, Tanktop said:

Anyone else fancy Leicester? Hull have been piss-poor away from home (D1 L7 in last 8 away). Whilst liverpool were bad last week, Leicester showed why they won the league last year with an impessive display. 

I was tempted but I just think it's too unpredictable. If Leicester deliver a performance again this week then I'll be happier to back them but one swallow doesn't make a summer as they say. I think the over 2.5 goals market will be worth getting involved in. BTTS odds might be too low, I'm not sure.

[mrclubbie]

Based on EPL table statistics:

Leicester vs Hull City: Over 2 or Over 2.25 -- Should have minimum 2 goals here, judging by how many away goals Hull have been conceding (average 2 goals). Also my guess is that players are happy that Ranieri is gone?

Swansea vs Burnley: Swansea HT 1x2 -- I see no light to Burnley's away form, and they lost 10 of their last 12 away 1st half

[Icongene]

I'll be staying clear of Leceister due to their unpredictability. It would be utterly hilarious if they folllowed up victory v Liverpool by losing to Hull.

Should be tight and I'd expect the home side to edge it but certainly wouldn't back that asssertation with hard cash.

Im still looking hard at Watford. You can get them on a double chance at 1.61 which is reasonable to me.

[andrewcalo]

4 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

one swallow doesn't make a summer as they say.

 

Depends how cute she is lol

Edited March 3, 2017 by andrewcalo

[Mindfulness]

West Bromwich Albion V Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace +0.50 @ 1.769 (Matchbook)

Going to put my money where my mouth is as I believe my analysis of Palace is correct and we have turned a corner. Team news looks fine, competition for places is strong, morale is high. New personnel and change of module has bough about a seed change in Palace's play, we should not fear West Brom here.

As I've said before West Brom performances will not drop and they will still be on a mission. People will point to the fact that they have won 4 home games in a row but I do not like to support long winning sequences from teams outside the big 6 in EPL. All those home wins came against donk teams and although many on here still believe Palace are a donk team I no longer share that view due to recent events. Note how skybet have a West Brom win in their enhanced odds acca this weekend; they believe the selection is a potential banana skin.

Don't get me wrong, I think West Brom are a very solid outfit at this level, but I find it hard to envisage them outscoring Palace tommorow. Statistics and even recent history can't always give you a complete picture when it comes to making the right decision in betting. Markets aren't stupid, to make money you sometimes have to step out and be first to call something. I will put my money and credibility at risk by saying Palace have the momentum here.

[andrewcalo]

I think a score draw is a real possibility.

[Icongene]

@MindfulnessI think someone doesn't want to get relegated  

I do agree with your analysis that long winning streaks outside the 'big teams' are to be considered.

Palace MIGHT take a point for me but absolutely nothing suggests three points surely? Where are you justifying this? 'seed of change in Palaces play' - is this off the back of the Boro performance or have there been other promising signs because Stoke and Sunderland games certainly weren't. 

Edited March 3, 2017 by Icongene

[Mindfulness]

10 minutes ago, Icongene said:

@MindfulnessI think someone doesn't want to get relegated  

I do agree with your analysis that long winning streaks outside the 'big teams' are to be considered.

Palace MIGHT take a point for me but absolutely nothing suggests three points surely? Where are you justifying this? 'seed of change in Palaces play' - is this off the back of the Boro performance or have there been other promising signs because Stoke and Sunderland games certainly weren't. 

Haha it's true! I really don't want to get relegated mate. I have been posting on here for a few years though and would hope that the old guard back me up when I say my view on Palace is unbiased. I make bets with the sole intention of generating profit, I tend to bet a lot on Palace games because they're the team I have the most complete picture of. Business is business. 

I feel I've written enough on this thread to justify my selection. As always; people must not follow if they think I'm wrong. I'm not here to convince anybody of anything, just explaining what I'll be doing and why I think it's the right move.

[Icongene]

1 hour ago, Mindfulness said:

Haha it's true! I really don't want to get relegated mate. I have been posting on here for a few years though and would hope that the old guard back me up when I say my view on Palace is unbiased. I make bets with the sole intention of generating profit, I tend to bet a lot on Palace games because they're the team I have the most complete picture of. Business is business. 

I feel I've written enough on this thread to justify my selection. As always; people must not follow if they think I'm wrong. I'm not here to convince anybody of anything, just explaining what I'll be doing and why I think it's the right move.

Not doubting your credentials. I've been on and off here for tips for 10 years so know the respectable avatars

Im not on this one so I hope you get your bet in. I've been secretly hoping for WBA to crash and burn for weeks so maybe Palace will give me some satisfaction 

Edited March 3, 2017 by Icongene

[malabgd]

West Bromwich v Crystal Palace
West Bromwich: Matt Phillips (24/4 m, doubtful)
Crystal Palace: Mathieu Flamini (7/0 m), Loic Remy (4/0 f), Steve Mandanda (9/0 g), Connor Wickham (8/2 f), Pape Souare (3/0 d), Jonathan Benteke (1/0 f)

Liverpool FC v Arsenal
Liverpool FC: Dejan Lovren (20/2 d, probably in), Jordan Henderson (24/1 m, captain), Daniel Sturridge (14/2 f), Danny Ings (0/0 f), Marko Grujic (2/0 m), Oviemuno Ejaria (2/0 m)
Arsenal: Mesut Özil (22/5 m, probably in), Santi Cazorla (8/2 m), Mohamed Elneny (12/0 m)
 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[Icongene]

Apparently Sunderland have a whole host of injuries by the way so get on Man City on the handicap here! 

[betcatalog]

Liverpool has a total of 17 to 26 goal goal and 8 out of 12 goal goal at home. Arsenal whole league has 17 to 25 over 2,5 and goal goal, while external 9 to 12 over 2,5 and Goals. Important match for both teams and beautiful game for us fans expect as almost always at this year's games to open match with many goals
LIVERPOOL FC vs ARSENAL FC @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.70

[Magic0024]

Premier League:

Manchester United are undefeated in their last 16 games in Premier League.
Millwall have kept a clean sheet in their last 7 games in League 1.
Wolverhampton Wanderers F.C. have lost with a 1 goal margin in their last 4 games in Championship.

Interesting 39 Football Betting Streaks for 04.03.2017 ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-streaks-04-03-2017