vicsuna

Lazio vs Inter: 1:1
Lazio (18) and Inter (16) own the two current longest unbeaten runs in Serie A across the Top 5 European leagues, only Liverpool (42) are currently on a longer run without defeat. I do not expect either team to lose and the only 2 away games that Inter did not win this season ended 1:1.
28 out of 76 games between Lazio and Inter at Stadio Olimpico ended as ties making it the most frequent outcome of those matches. However, the last time they drew at Lazio's stadium in Serie A was more than 10 years ago - back in 2008 a 1:1 match. I think a draw is a risky bet but like the odds of +6 for correct score 1:1.

Watford vs Tottenham
The Premier League action begins this weekend with a 12:30pm GMT kick-off between Watford and Tottenham at Vicarage Road on Saturday lunchtime. The host team are discovering a decent run of form right now under new manager Nigel Pearson and they face a travelling side that is suffering from a bit of an injury crisis. Who will prevail as the winners?
Watford come into this game in 17th place and 1 point above the relegation zone. It's a huge turnaround for a side that looked lost at the bottom of the table just a month or so ago. Pearson has come in and lost just 1 of his 7 league games in charge. That defeat was away to Liverpool so can kind of be excused as well given their form this season. The Hornets remain undefeated at home under Pearson and that includes winning their last three home league games and conceding just 1 goal in those matches.
Tottenham had started life under Jose Mourinho reasonably positively but a range of injuries including to star striker Harry Kane has hit the team hard. Spurs are now in 8th place but still 9 points off the Champions League qualification spots. The club are now winless in three league games and their 2-1 win against Middlesbrough in the FA Cup 3rd Round replay during midweek was hardly convincing. Until new signings are brought in it looks like Tottenham could be a team struggling to pick up points. Particularly on the road.
I'm not sure whether to back the home win or a draw. I don't have a lot of confidence in Tottenham at the moment but Mourinho does have a habit of grinding out the results when his sides are up against it. The ELO ratings still favour Tottenham but it's very tight. On that basis, I'm going to have to back the draw. If I was being bold and backing a correct score I'd say 1-1. It'll be close however this ends up.
Draw @ 3.60 with Marathonbet
BTTS @ 1.70 with Sportingbet
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Lazio vs Juventus: HT/FT Draw/Juve
Inter lost points vs Roma and Juve now have the opportunity to go back at the top of the table with a win in Rome. 
Lazio are on a run of 9 games without a loss since the game vs Inter, winning 7 and the last 6. However, Lazio have lost 20 out of 31 Serie A games vs teams above them in the table since Inzaghi's appointment in 2016. Their habit of losing vs the best Italian teams was particularly evident last year when they lost 10 out of 14 games vs the top 7.
Juve has the highest % of games half time/ full time draw/win in Europe with 8 such wins from 14 matches(4/7 away). Only the Egyptian Al Mokawloon Al Arab has higher % of such games in the whole world ?, according to stats from fctables.com. Juve has drawn 11 out of 14 games and 6 out of 7 away matches this season in the first 45 minutes - the highest number for both in Serie A.
The last four matches between Lazio and Juve at Stadio Olimpico all ended as HT/FT Draw/Juve win.
I like the odds around 6 for late Juve win.
 

If Chelsea win, Valencia must win, but Ajax need only draw to advance. I think the 4.50 or so on offer for the X in Ajax and Inter will be too good to pass up.

In general, if you think Arsenal will be hard-pressed to get a win (I have WHU to win at 3.60), it is better to take either the win or the draw rather than DNB. Yes, it is no fun being right and losing your stake, but you'll do better over time by going for the higher priced option (whichever you choose). With DNB you're basically making the same bet, but you don't win anything if the match ends in a draw. Think of it this way, you have a 60% or 65% chance of being right, but only a 30% chance of cashing the ticket. And if you guess right, you'll win 2.5 times your stake or 3 times your stake.
I thought about taking the draw, as it's even higher priced at 4.12, but home dogs in EPL at this range of odds get outright wins at a slightly higher rate than draws.

I'm going big on Ruiz vs Joshua. Ruiz to win. 2/1 from Ladbrokes.
1. Ruiz won the 1st fight and therefore has the psychological edge.
2. Joshua seems to have nervous characteristics. This is not to slate him, he had and still has a load of expectations on his shoulders. I believe the casual boxing fan thinks he is the best because he looks the best. After the 1st fight Joshua seemed almost relieved to have been beaten. This could be that he was glad that he doesn't have the weight of expectation on him anymore of being an unbeaten fighter. Also there is a strong rumour he had a panic attack before the fight. 
3. Ruiz has deceptively fast hands for his size.
4. Joseph Parker - who has fought both fighters says Ruiz is the harder puncher.
5. Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder believe Ruiz will win. 
6. Ruiz has been boxing since he was 6. Joshua (to the best of my knowledge) says he has taken boxing seriously from 2008.
7. Joshua again, has had the same team around him since the beginning. Ruiz's team has changed and was trained by Freddie Roach in the past.
8. Joshua has only won in Britain. I believe he is out of his comfort zone on foreign soil. This fight should have been in Britain.
9. 6 months between the fights isn't long enough to process a loss like he suffered. Surprising that he and his team took this fight on without at least 1 confidence building fight. I believe this is a big mistake.
10. Ruiz was up on the scorecards before the TKO. 
 

Surprised to see Crystal Palace above 3s for the Watford game.  Watford are yet to win at home, and only have the one win all season.  Still no manager either.  Palace are well organised and I think they should be shorter for this game so I see some value in Palace at around 3.2.  I know they have some personnel missing in defence, but they are playing Watford so hardly the most dangerous attacking team!  Palace have also had an extra day of rest for this game.
Going to also tip spurs to win and both teams to score which can be had for 2.9 (coral).  The reasoning being that spurs defence has been struggling, conceding 2 goals in all four games since Mourinho came in.  I'm not entirely confident spurs will win and they are definitely not value at 1.4 to win outright.  However, Burnley have wobbled in their last two games, and defensively seem to be struggling more than normal so if spurs do win I can't see it being to nil the way the team are playing.
And finally, going to give Aston Villa +1 a go at just below evens.  Leicester aren't going to keep winning every game, and I think this is a tough game.  Villa gave Liverpool a good game a couple of weeks back and were unlucky not to draw, and also got a deserved draw at Man U last weekend, though they were poor against Chelsea in midweek.  Leicester were perhaps a bit lucky to beat Everton, and had to rely on a dodgy penalty and 95th minute goal to beat Watford so perhaps there are signs they aren't playing quite as well as results would suggest.  I don't think it would be a surprise if this ended in a draw, or even if Aston Villa were to win, so i'm happy to lay Leicester in this game.

Brighton vs Wolves
The Premier League action continues with a tricky game to predict on Sunday when Brighton host Wolves in a 4:30pm GMT kick-off from the Amex Stadium. Both of these clubs have had reasons to feel positive heading into the festive schedule recently. The home side bagged a stunning win over Arsenal in midweek and the away side are knocking on the door of the top four. Who will prevail here?
Brighton fans are having a rollercoaster of a season so far. Graham Potter has oddly been handed a whopping contract extension after a seemingly encouraging start to his tenure at the club. The Seagulls are 13th in the league table and 4 points above the relegation zone. Clearly, Tony Bloom and the board are happy with the work Potter is doing including the playing philosophy he's instilled within the club. Is it a naive decision? Before the midweek win, Brighton had lost their previous 3 league games. However, they do come into this game having won 3 of their last 4 home league matches.
Wolves appear to have found the right balance between succeeding in the league and having a proper go at the Europa League. Nuno Santo's side are 5th in the league table and only 6 points off the pace of the Champions League qualification spots. The club has also qualified for the last 32 of the Europa League with a game to spare in the group stage. After a slow start to their league game, Wanderers are now 10 league games undefeated. It's also only 1 defeat on the road in the league, although they have draw 4 matches away as well. 
It's interesting to see how much Brighton have actually dominated this fixture over recent years. The Seagulls have only lost 1 of the last 10 encounters between these two teams. That being said, I'm swaying towards a draw in this one. Why? Well, not only have Wolves notched up a majority of draws in their away games but 5 of the last 10 matches between these two have ended in a draw too. I was tempted to back a Wolves win but I do think Brighton will be buoyant after that Arsenal win and hold out.
Draw @ 3.28 with Marathonbet
BTTS @ 1.95 with Bet365

Sheff Utd v Newcastle
 
Guys.  I just want to take advantage of Newcastle's huge price tonight. They got a really good result against Man City the other day, and feel they can push on with a bit of confidence.  
Sheff Utd have had a few draws recently, and they could easily screw this up against a battle hard defensive team like Newcastle. 
I would advise the following:
 
Newcastle Win @ 5.1
Newcastle X2 or +1 Goal @ 2.24

Spurs are favourites to beat Man U at Old Trafford!  Never thought i'd see the day.  It would certainly be ironic if a Mourinho led spurs won this game, leading to OGS being sacked and replaced by Poch!

Atalanta vs Dinamo Zagreb: Atalanta & BTTS 
This is a must win game for Atalanta if they want to progress in Europe. Atalanta's problem is that they concede too many goals. They have conceded a goal in 15 out of 17 games since start of the season & 13 of those matches saw both teams scoring. 5 out of 6 wins for Atalanta also had goals in both ends.
Dinamo Zagreb had 2 thrilling high scoring draws in the last 2 rounds of the Champions League season vs Shakhtar (3:3 & 2:2). The team is more experienced than Atalanta in Europe after going to the round of 16 in Europa League last year. 2 of their 3 losses in Europa League last season had both teams scoring.
Question is if Atalanta can beat Dinamo after losing 4:0 in Zagreb. If they do win, then most likely both teams are going to score and the odds near 3 seem worth it.
 

Athletic Bilbao vs Levante: Athletic Bilbao-1 Draw
Only 3 rounds in the last two seasons there was not a La Liga match when at least one home team won by 1 goal difference. Already this season there were two rounds dominated by 0:0 stalemates without a home side winning with 1 goal margin.
Out of the 5 remaining games Levante are the team with the highest % of away losses by just 1 goal margin last season (70% or 7 out of 10 away losses). 3 out of 4 their away losses this season were also by 1 goal difference. I know Levante won at home vs Barca in the last round but they lost the very next game even after the last time they won on their own turf vs Barcelona in a thrilling 5:4 game 2 seasons ago.
Athletic Bilbao had the second highest % of home wins by just 1 goal difference last season(66% or 6 out of 9 home wins) from remaining home sides this round after Betis. They have just one such win out of 4 home wins so far this season and the coincidence is that it was against Barca in the first round.

I am trying a 4 game combo Half time or full time draw in the Segunda Division games between Extremadura vs Deportivo, Elche vs Almeria, Numancia vs Rayo, Zaragoza vs Albacete. Odds of +6
Extremadura and Deportivo have both led at half time just 1 time out of 15 games so far. La Coruna also have 7 full time draws from 15 matches.
Almeria have drawn 7 games so far and 5 out of 8 away matches. The appointment of Guti as manager resulted in another draw. Almeria are on a 3 away games streak of draws and 5 of their last 6 Segunda Division matches ended level.
Rayo have drawn 8 games so far this season while 9 of Numancia's matches in the league were stalemates at half time. The last four matches between Numancia and Rayo were draws as well.
Albacete have drawn at half time a league high of 11 times. They have just 1 full time draw, which is the lowest in the division. However, 7 out of 12 Segunda Division matches between Zaragoza and Albacete were level. Albacete's manager Luis Miguel Ramis has drawn all 3 games when he faced Zaragoza, including both matches between these teams last season

Roughly 1/3 of the way through the season... here's my projected table:

Wolves +1 is my main fancy this week.  Wolves always up their game against the big six, and won at Man City only a couple of weeks ago.  
Arsenal are in a state of disarray (as usual) and the atmosphere at the club seems to be turning a bit toxic like in the last of Wenger's days with the club.  Crystal Palace managed to get a draw at the Emirates last week even though they were 2-0 down after 10 minutes.  This seems to be a good time for a team to be playing Arsenal, especially as they managed to lose the cup game to Liverpool in midweek in heartbreaking fashion.  
I don't fully trust Wolves to get the win, but I think they are more than capable of getting at least a draw so happy to take them +1 at just over evens (various).

Leicester is one of the delightful performances of this year's Premier League and is no accident in second place in the standings, along with Manchester City. Saturday beat Burnley 2-1, and today's game at Southampton is quite demanding. The Saints have been in a difficult position since the start of the season and will do their best to reach a positive result today, but Leicester City has the first reason for victory
SOUTHAMPTON FC vs LEICESTER CITY @@ LEICESTER CITY, odds 2.40

Southampton vs Leicester
Friday night football is back for the Premier League with Southampton playing Leicester in this 8pm BST kick-off at St Mary's Stadium. These two sides have had contrasting starts to their league campaigns with the home side toiling at the wrong end of the table and the visitors are flying high up the top end of the division. Will the result favour the form book or will we see a surprise?
Southampton narrowly avoided relegation last season but with the appointment of Ralph Hasenhuttl it was hoped that the Saints could push on up the table this season. Unfortunately, the club is currently sitting in 17th place and only outside the relegation zone on goal difference. Four league games without a win has left the fans becoming concerned but the 1-1 draw versus Wolves in their last match gave hope that they might have turned a corner. What is more worrying is the fact that this poor form has continued from last season with the club only managing 2 of their last 14 league games with the worst home record in the division this season having failed to keep a clean sheet at home. However, this is a Southampton side that have scored in a club record 18 consecutive home games. 
Leicester are a completely opposing tale. Brendan Rodgers has transformed this Foxes team into a free-flowing attacking side that are making a serious push for a top four finish this season. 5 wins from their last 7 league games has pushed the team up to 3rd in the table. If Leicester win here then it'll be the first time since 1930 that they'd have won 6 of their first 10 matches in the top flight. Disconcertingly, the club hasn't kept a clean sheet in their last 12 away league games. It could also be worth backing Jamie Vardy to score any time because he's bagged 15 goals since Rodgers took over in March.
These two sides played each other three times last season with the away side winning both league games with Leicester winning the EFL Cup clash on penalties. St Mary's Stadium is a place Leicester love scoring goals having hit six here in their last two visits. I can see goals being scored again in this game. I'd have to back Leicester to sneak a 2-1 win if I was pushed on a correct score.
Leicester to Win @ 2.35 with SportNation
Anytime Scorer: Jamie Vardy @ 2.25 with Betfred
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Noted that nearly 30 years ago in 1990, Liverpool also recorded 8 straight wins into the season but drew their 9th match. Eventually the title went to Arsenal.

Inter Milan vs Juventus
The big game in Serie A this weekend is certainly worth looking deeper into. A rather fascinating title race is potentially igniting when Inter Milan play Juventus in a 7:45pm BST kick-off at the San Siro on Sunday evening. It's first versus second as the home side are looking to extend their lead at the top of the table with the away side attempting to stop a gap from developing.
Inter Milan look a very impressive side under Antonio Conte. On a personal level, I really rate him as a manager and I think he's firmly turned his team into valid favourites for the league title now. The club boasts a 100% record in the league and stand 2 points clear of second placed Juventus heading into this game. They were also 6 minutes away from a credible draw out in Barcelona in midweek so they're proving to be a real handful against anyone home or away.
Juventus are looking to retain their league title but are 2 points behind their opponents coming into this game. Maurizio Sarri isn't getting the best out of Cristiano Ronaldo so far but is it simply a case of the Portuguese talisman getting to that age where he will be less effective? He's still been doing it for Portugal so I can't help but feel it's Sarri's tactics restricting him. Don't get me wrong, he's still their top scorer but nowhere near as prolific as he has been in previous seasons. The Old Lady has been far from convincing on the road with the 0-0 draw away to Fiorentina being a particular blotch on their league record.
Not a lot separates these two teams but I just feel Inter Milan are already showing themselves to be an archetypal Conte team. Four clean sheets in their six league games is evidence he is building a side based on a solid defence. He faces his former team knowing that his defence will need to hold firm against a Juventus side that has scored 16 goals in 8 games across all competitions this season. I'm torn over whether they can do it or not. I'd love to see an Inter win and as tempted as I am to back it I think a draw seems most likely.
Draw @ 3.25 with Marathonbet
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.74 with Betdaq
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Burnley at 3s look good to me.  How are Everton favourites for this game?  Burnley is always a tough place to go, and Everton have lost their last 3 PL games so aren't in good form.  OK the last game was versus Man City where you perhaps expect to lose, but they also lost to Sheff Utd at home and Bournemouth away, both games they should not be losing if you want to finish in the top 6.  Burnley away is as tough as, if not tougher than either of those two games. 
Burnley are ticking along fairly well, having only lost two games in the PL (Liverpool at home and Arsenal away so no disgrace in those results).  Wood and Barnes are a handful upfront and they generally perform well at home, having beaten Southampton and Norwich to nil already this season.
Personally I think Burnley should be Everton's price (around 2.6) and Everton should be around 3s for this game, so taking a decent stake on the home team to win this one.

Leicester vs Newcastle
The solitary Premier League game today is the clash between high-flying Leicester and lowly Newcastle in a 4:30pm BST kick-off at the King Power Stadium. The odds are heavily backing the home side here and it's hard to argue against that. The turmoil continues at the Tyneside club and there are already calls for Steve Bruce to be replaced. Can they pull off a shock win in this game?
Leicester were backed by a fair few pundits and punters to be the team most likely to breach the reputed "top six". Brendan Rodgers has come in and done a brilliant job so far turning this side into an attacking team with plenty of threat going forward. The Foxes are currently in 5th place with 11 points from 6 league games. 3 wins in their last 4 games has helped them to this position and the 1-0 defeat away to Manchester United has so far been their only blip.
Newcastle's situation isn't surprising many people. It seems to be a constant state now that the club's fans are disillusioned with life under Mike Ashley. Reports have suggested that Peter Kenyon is on the verge of completing a takeover and that would surely jeopardise Bruce's position as manager. Until then, it's business as usual. The Magpies are 19th in the table with just 1 win all season. It's now 3 league games without a win and only a win today will take them out of the bottom three.
Interestingly, Newcastle fans might have reason to be optimistic today. The club have won on their last two visits to the King Power Stadium but both of those were under the experienced stewardship of Rafa Benitez. The last four meetings between these two sides have also been won by the away side. Unfortunately, I don't see anything suggesting Newcastle will win this. The strikers can't hit a barn door, the defence looks unstructured, and there is such a lack of creativity in midfield. Compare it to the slick unit that is Leicester and it's a no brainer.
Leicester -1 @ 2.75 with SpreadEx
Leicester HT/FT @ 2.50 with BetVictor

Parma vs Torino: Draw
Parma had 5 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses at home last season, but didn't manage to beat one of the top 10 sides at home - losing 6 games and 4 matches ended level. Parma lost all 4 matches at home vs top 4 teams(Juve, Napoli, Inter, Atalanta), so Gialloblu had 4 draws out of 6 games at home vs top half teams outside of top 4 like Torino. 
Meanwhile, Torino drew 13, won 4 and lost just 2 away games last season. That record will most probably not be repeated as Torino had its first away loss last season in mid January and the team already lost away vs Sampdoria 1:0. Anyway, it is worth noting that il Toro drew all 7 away games last season vs teams from 10th to 16th place, including a goalless tie vs Parma. 
Both Parma and Torino are coming off narrow home wins in last round and both teams are yet to have a single draw after 5 games. Expected goals data shows that Torino should have been second from bottom, but that just points out how difficult it is to score past Sirigu and how clinical il Toro are at the front. Torino lost their last 2 games vs not so open teams from bottom half of the table and I suspect they will be happy with a point from the visit to Parma.

Parma vs Torino: Draw
Parma had 5 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses at home last season, but didn't manage to beat one of the top 10 sides at home - losing 6 games and 4 matches ended level. Parma lost all 4 matches at home vs top 4 teams(Juve, Napoli, Inter, Atalanta), so Gialloblu had 4 draws out of 6 games at home vs top half teams outside of top 4 like Torino. 
Meanwhile, Torino drew 13, won 4 and lost just 2 away games last season. That record will most probably not be repeated as Torino had its first away loss last season in mid January and the team already lost away vs Sampdoria 1:0. Anyway, it is worth noting that il Toro drew all 7 away games last season vs teams from 10th to 16th place, including a goalless tie vs Parma. 
Both Parma and Torino are coming off narrow home wins in last round and both teams are yet to have a single draw after 5 games. Expected goals data shows that Torino should have been second from bottom, but that just points out how difficult it is to score past Sirigu and how clinical il Toro are at the front. Torino lost their last 2 games vs not so open teams from bottom half of the table and I suspect they will be happy with a point from the visit to Parma.

Man United v Arsenal
My feeling is that Man United and Arsenal are just too inconsistent to have a large (MATCH WINNER) bet on at the moment.
United are hampered by Pogba who is a disruption. He wants away, and they should sell him to Real Madrid for 100million +.  Rather have 2 new 50 million pound midfielders that Poggie, that will give less problems, and cost less, and give more effort. For me it is a no-brainer. If they can get it done in Januray then great. C ya!
At the moment Pogba is a bad fit  for United. I say this for a number of reasons;
1) He is no leader. You can't build a team around this guy.
2) He feels he is bigger than the club. He is definitely putting his own interests first all the time, not helped by Ole bending over to accommodate him 
3) He has an agent  that causes friction and discontentment 
4) His attitude is that he does not want to be part of a 3 year Man United rebuilding cycle. He wants to play in the Champions League, and craves the spotlight.  
OK, NP sell him for the maximum. Seriously, how many really good games has he had for United in his stay there? 5 maybe...
Rather sell him and get two new midfielders that will give 100% and have a consistent rating of 6.5 to 8 most weeks.
Both Arsenal and United are conceding goals. United have the problem of not scoring enough, and are definitely a center forward short. Obviously the deal from Inter (for Lukaku sweetend with the Sanchez loan) was to good too turn down. But the injury to Martial has really screwed them. How is it possible that a team of the size of United have no center forward? Quite interesting in that both Morata and Lukaku are gone from the Premier league...
Arsenal have such a potent threat upfront. This is a team that will score goals. Aubameyang takes his chances well, but Lacazette will be missed. I do feel that Arsenal have more confidence than United at the moment, and it should just give them a slight edge.
Between these two inconsistent, relatively fairly matched teams, I would definitely be going over 2.5 goals in the game, instead of trying to find a winner.

Roma V Atalanta
Atalanta +0.25 AH @ 2.07 Matchbook
On paper this should be a balanced game with two teams on a similar level. Roma have picked up in recent games and have won 3 on the bounce in all competitions. I do feel that this game will be a tougher test for Paulo Fonseca's side as Atalanta have both the personnel and playing style to exploit Roma's weaknesses.
I actually prefer Atalanta on the road and I particularly like them in games where opponents try to play attacking and expansive football. Roma love to play high up the pitch with an offside trap under Fonseca and I think they will leave opportunities for their opponents in this game. Essentially Atalanta should be better at capitalising on Roma's flaws compared to the other opponents recently faced by the Giallorossi.
I like the fact that Atalanta came back from two goals down V Fiorentina at the weekend, the last minute equaliser will be a boost for morale and shows that the spirit levels are still good there. Gasperini benched Illicic and Gomez for that game but perhaps we will see one or both starting at Roma which will make Atalanta a more dangerous prospect from the off.
ELO performance ratings look good for Atalanta here which is encouraging. It's a difficult match to predict but I was expecting the prices to be closer together. The Roma +0 AH line is currently 1.57 while the Atalanta +0 AH line is 2.45 and that looks too big a discrepancy for me. I will take Atalanta on the +0.25 line at odds against as I think it's a good value bet.