Premier League 2019/20 Ante-Post Betting

[StevieDay1983]

It's the 1st July today so it feels like we are now counting down to the start of the new Premier League season as opposed to looking back on the previous one. Here are the latest odds for outright winners, relegation, and top scorer. Lots to discuss and some interesting prices flying around. Let us know what bets you're looking at so we can come back at the end of the season and see who was closest with their predictions. 

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[Mindfulness]

I had a bit of a nibble on Newcastle to be relegated @ 4.6 on Betfair Exchange when it was announced that Benitez had quit.

It's not the biggest price error in history but 4.6 is still a ways off from what I can make them, should be in the range of 3.0 - 3.5 in my view; as things stand.

Would love to know what Wolves transfer policy is for the summer window. Can any Wolves fans on here enlighten me? Do they have funds to boost the squad? Otherwise Bet365's 41.0 for relegation is huge considering they have a small squad and Europa League football to contend with.

Imagine getting 41.0 for Burnley relegation odds this time last year! Slightly different situation I know but Wolves incomming summer transfers / expansion of squad is key factor to any potential value play on their relegation odds here.

[thfc]

Surprised to see spurs as third favourites in the PL title race, albeit a long way off the top two.  No chance of us challenging for the title as I think we will have a weaker team than last year if Eriksen and maybe Alderweireld go.

At the bottom, I like the look of Newcastle and like @Mindfulnesssays, they should be shorter than that.  No money, no manager and the club in turmoil suggests a very tough season for the toon.  

Could Palace be worth a shout at 6.5 if Zaha goes?  I think they've probably got enough about them if he does go, especially with Hodgson in charge, but the price would probably shorten if he did leave.

My main ante-post bet is to back Everton to finish in the top 4 at 21s.  Main reasoning being they finished last season strongly and have a good team already.  If they can strengthen with one or two more (particularly a decent striker), I think they've got enough about them to give the top 6 a good run for their money, especially as Chelsea are going to be weaker (no Hazard is massive), Arsenal are not improving and don't have much to spend to sort out their problems, and spurs may also be weaker.  And who knows with Man U who always seem to be in some sort of transition?!  

[StevieDay1983]

15 hours ago, Mindfulness said:

I had a bit of a nibble on Newcastle to be relegated @ 4.6 on Betfair Exchange when it was announced that Benitez had quit.

It's not the biggest price error in history but 4.6 is still a ways off from what I can make them, should be in the range of 3.0 - 3.5 in my view; as things stand.

Would love to know what Wolves transfer policy is for the summer window. Can any Wolves fans on here enlighten me? Do they have funds to boost the squad? Otherwise Bet365's 41.0 for relegation is huge considering they have a small squad and Europa League football to contend with.

Imagine getting 41.0 for Burnley relegation odds this time last year! Slightly different situation I know but Wolves incomming summer transfers / expansion of squad is key factor to any potential value play on their relegation odds here.

Yes, Newcastle have to be taken at that price. I appreciate that the takeover could go through and they get a decent manager in but the clock is ticking. Every day that passes now eats into their pre-season preparations and that's going to be detrimental.

My mate is a Wolves fan and he's confident about this season. He thinks they're going to strengthen and finish mid-table again. However, he did say they need to address poor results against sides lower down. He said they won't perform as well as they did last season against the big teams so they are wary.

22 minutes ago, thfc said:

Surprised to see spurs as third favourites in the PL title race, albeit a long way off the top two.  No chance of us challenging for the title as I think we will have a weaker team than last year if Eriksen and maybe Alderweireld go.

At the bottom, I like the look of Newcastle and like @Mindfulnesssays, they should be shorter than that.  No money, no manager and the club in turmoil suggests a very tough season for the toon.  

Could Palace be worth a shout at 6.5 if Zaha goes?  I think they've probably got enough about them if he does go, especially with Hodgson in charge, but the price would probably shorten if he did leave.

My main ante-post bet is to back Everton to finish in the top 4 at 21s.  Main reasoning being they finished last season strongly and have a good team already.  If they can strengthen with one or two more (particularly a decent striker), I think they've got enough about them to give the top 6 a good run for their money, especially as Chelsea are going to be weaker (no Hazard is massive), Arsenal are not improving and don't have much to spend to sort out their problems, and spurs may also be weaker.  And who knows with Man U who always seem to be in some sort of transition?!  

I think Tottenham is probably fair. The only spanner in the works would be if Mauricio Pochettino leaves but I think they'll do all they can to keep him. I think only the Real Madrid job would tempt him away. Would he go to Barcelona after spending time at Espanyol? Only other job that would tempt him might be Bayern Munich. Can you honestly see Chelsea or Arsenal finishing above them? I don't think Eriksen or Alderweireld will go. Signing Ndombele will be a masterstroke too. He's exactly the sort of player they need.

Agree about Crystal Palace too. Their record without Zaha playing is terrible isn't it? Not sure even Roy Hodgson could save them unless they invest heavily and even that doesn't guarantee safety.

[Mindfulness]

Yes, surely Palace relegation odds will shorten if Zaha leaves but frankly I don't think Arsenal will put up the money for him. They are just trying to unsettle the player at the moment with derisory bids.

If Zaha wants to play for Arsenal then fair enough, he's been great for Palace over the years and is one of the main reasons we have consolidated in the EPL, there should be no bad blood if he leaves. However, Palace must get a respectable amount for him, especially as he has four years to run on his contract in an era of sky-high player valuations.

If Arsenal do manage to find the other half of his transfer fee (probably not in this window) then Dougie Freedman's role as sporting director will be key as to how Palace will progress in the near future.

The two examples I always cite is Rooney leaving Everton took them to the next level while Bale leaving Tottenham created chaos.

[thfc]

1 hour ago, StevieDay1983 said:

I think Tottenham is probably fair. The only spanner in the works would be if Mauricio Pochettino leaves but I think they'll do all they can to keep him. I think only the Real Madrid job would tempt him away. Would he go to Barcelona after spending time at Espanyol? Only other job that would tempt him might be Bayern Munich. Can you honestly see Chelsea or Arsenal finishing above them? I don't think Eriksen or Alderweireld will go. Signing Ndombele will be a masterstroke too. He's exactly the sort of player they need.

Pochettino won't leave this season especially as spurs appear to be spending some money at last.  I've not seen Ndombele play so can't really comment on his ability but at £65m he'd better be good!

I fancy spurs for the top 4, but they will be at least as far away from the title as last season, and on that basis I think their odds are too short.  But the title race is tough to bet on, as it's highly likely to be between city and Liverpool. 

Arguably Liverpool could be a touch of value given they only lost by a point and in any other season their points tally would have been more than enough to take the title.  However, I can't help but feel they will slip back a bit this year, especially with Salah and Mane currently playing in the AFCON.  They will be most likely jaded for the start of the season and may take some time to get going.  

 

 

[thfc]

10 minutes ago, Mindfulness said:

Yes, surely Palace relegation odds will shorten if Zaha leaves but frankly I don't think Arsenal will put up the money for him. They are just trying to unsettle the player at the moment with derisory bids.

I think Palace are holding out for Arsenal's inevitable £40,000,001 bid!

[Mindfulness]

19 hours ago, thfc said:

I think Palace are holding out for Arsenal's inevitable £40,000,001 bid!

I wouldn't put it past Arsenal, they've behaved like this for years.

 

[thfc]

Newcastle have accepted a bid from Leicester for Perez.  No big deal I originally thought but apparently he's been the team's top scorer the past two seasons so clearly will be a big loss.  Just makes the Newcastle to be relegated bet look even better. 

Taking the 4.5 on offer now as the price can only shorten from here, especially if some of the teams expected to be near the bottom make some astute signings.

[StevieDay1983]

1 hour ago, thfc said:

Newcastle have accepted a bid from Leicester for Perez.  No big deal I originally thought but apparently he's been the team's top scorer the past two seasons so clearly will be a big loss.  Just makes the Newcastle to be relegated bet look even better. 

Taking the 4.5 on offer now as the price can only shorten from here, especially if some of the teams expected to be near the bottom make some astute signings.

Yeah, it's looking very daunting for the Toon Army. Not seen them linked with anyone either so improving the squad doesn't seem to be happening any time soon. As I said above, the clock is ticking. Summer transfer window closes a month earlier now. I'm not sure what they're playing at up there!

[vicsuna]

I truly believe Manchester United will finish in top 4 this season and the odds of 6/5 seem worth a punt. Ole is doing smart transfers of hungry players that have the potential to grow and enhance the team. I don't like the fact that Manchester United is giving away contract renewals so easily... for example recently awarded Phil Jones with contract extension till 2023 but I guess they do not want to lose players for free. Even if Pogba goes to Juve or Real, I see the team better off this year as football is a weak link sport and Man United have already  improved two of their weakest spots - RB and RW. Tuanzebe may play as CB alongside Lindeloff if no one else is signed but most probably there will be some quality central defender signing with the funds from the almost certain sale of Lukaku. Arsenal and Chelsea look like a shadow of themselves, so unless there is some surprise team challenging the top 6 teams I reckon Manchester United will have just enough to edge in Champions League football again.

[StevieDay1983]

On 7/7/2019 at 9:50 AM, vicsuna said:

I truly believe Manchester United will finish in top 4 this season and the odds of 6/5 seem worth a punt. Ole is doing smart transfers of hungry players that have the potential to grow and enhance the team. I don't like the fact that Manchester United is giving away contract renewals so easily... for example recently awarded Phil Jones with contract extension till 2023 but I guess they do not want to lose players for free. Even if Pogba goes to Juve or Real, I see the team better off this year as football is a weak link sport and Man United have already  improved two of their weakest spots - RB and RW. Tuanzebe may play as CB alongside Lindeloff if no one else is signed but most probably there will be some quality central defender signing with the funds from the almost certain sale of Lukaku. Arsenal and Chelsea look like a shadow of themselves, so unless there is some surprise team challenging the top 6 teams I reckon Manchester United will have just enough to edge in Champions League football again.

As a Cardiff fan who saw how tactically inept Solskjaer was back then, I can't share your view. When he started at United I honestly thought he'd learned his lesson but he's slipped back into old habits. You can tell the way he wants to play but he just doesn't buy the right players. If I had to pick one side that will slip out of the top six this season then it would be United. I'm not sure they will but things are toxic at that club right now and Solskjaer is blind or ignorant to it. The players he's bringing might be hungry but they're not good enough.

[SPACEGHOST87]

Really like the team West Ham are putting together, had a nibble of Top Half Finish at 11/8 with Black Type.

[Sir Puntalot]

 to Punters Lounge @SPACEGHOST87   

Certainly not shy in spending a few pennies the Hammers, no excuses for them this season.  

[Mindfulness]

19 hours ago, SPACEGHOST87 said:

Really like the team West Ham are putting together, had a nibble of Top Half Finish at 11/8 with Black Type.

Yes good spot @SPACEGHOST87, I reckon West Ham should be around 1.80 for this market.

Even though the upper mid-table zone is a close run thing in EPL, we must remember that Wolves over-performed last season (in my view) and they will have to deal with Europa League football in 2019/2020.

West Ham have assembled a good squad and finished the 2018/2019 campaign strongly.

I have taken West Ham top half finish @ 2.20 Bet365

Still available @ 2.25 in some places I believe.

[SPACEGHOST87]

Had a decent bet on Spurs top 4 at 4/7.  With Ndombele already in they should be continuing to strengthen.  I see them closing the gap on the Top 2 this season and see them being miles better than Arsenal/Chelsea/Utd.  4/7 seems a bit of a gift IMO.  Think I'll be adding that into a few multis too!

[harry_rag]

Just posted this in the VAR chat thread on the subject of a potential punt on total penalties this season. Thought I'd stick it in here as well, be interested in anyone else's take on this. My gut instinct is there's going to be a great value bet to be had in going low as punters and bookies alike overreact to the prospect.

 

[waynecoyne]

Spreadex have put up some season goal player prices for the premiership and championship.

I have bought john mcginn goals at 3.5.

He scored 6 in 41 last season in the championship and looks like he will be a first choice pick in midfield for villa along with grealish.

Villa beat charlton at the weekend 4-1 with Mcginn scoring 2.

If he stays fit this should hopefully be fairly low risk. 

[harry_rag]

43 minutes ago, waynecoyne said:

Spreadex have put up some season goal player prices for the premiership and championship.

I have bought john mcginn goals at 3.5.

Yeah, had a preliminary look at those but not gone for anything yet. Did Firmino for a small loss last season when I should have picked Mane as the viable alternative to Salah.

I have taken what I could get (not much) on the 7/2 that both Sky and Paddy are offering for Milivojevic to score 10+ goals this season for Palace. 12 and 10 in the last couple of seasons that just strikes me as too big, even if you don't assume he'll benefit significantly from the whole VAR/handball thing. Also took the 100/1 for 15+ with Skybet.

[waynecoyne]

6 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Yeah, had a preliminary look at those but not gone for anything yet. Did Firmino for a small loss last season when I should have picked Mane as the viable alternative to Salah.

I have taken what I could get (not much) on the 7/2 that both Sky and Paddy are offering for Milivojevic to score 10+ goals this season for Palace. 12 and 10 in the last couple of seasons that just strikes me as too big, even if you don't assume he'll benefit significantly from the whole VAR/handball thing. Also took the 100/1 for 15+ with Skybet.

i didn't realise he'd scored that many harry, how many weren't penalties i wonder?

[harry_rag]

3 hours ago, waynecoyne said:

i didn't realise he'd scored that many harry, how many weren't penalties i wonder?

10 of the 12 and 7 of the 10, so 17 out of 22! 

[harry_rag]

Form an orderly queue to call me a mug but I can't resist a tiny bet on Kane to score a goal from the halfway line or further at 80/1 with Skybet! 

Obviously prompted by his goal just inside the opposition half v Juve in preseason, it's something that only a handful of players have managed in the Premier League. Bottom line is the price feels a bit big to me. If you gave him 80 seasons at his current level I'd expect him to do it at least once.

[harry_rag]

Gone for a sell of total penalties awarded at 132 with SX (had to sell converted at 102 and unconverted at 30 as they're not quoting a combined price). I'm going with the "sell hype" theory which tends to do well more often than not, I just don't think the combined effect of VAR and the new handball rule should have pushed the figure anywhere near as high as that.

Over the last 10 years, the number awarded has ranged from 80 to 106 and averaged 94. There's no indication of VAR alone having much effect on penalties in the other 4 major leagues and the suggestion seems to be it will be used sparingly here, only where there's believed to have been a clear error made. There's also signs that the interpretation of the handball rule will not be as strict as we have seen elsewhere with Mike RIley saying he doesn't think there will be much of a change to how it has been interpreted for the past few seasons.

We'll see what happens but I'm happy to be short of that price.

[Ratty]

On 7/30/2019 at 10:54 AM, harry_rag said:

Yeah, had a preliminary look at those but not gone for anything yet. Did Firmino for a small loss last season when I should have picked Mane as the viable alternative to Salah.

I have taken what I could get (not much) on the 7/2 that both Sky and Paddy are offering for Milivojevic to score 10+ goals this season for Palace. 12 and 10 in the last couple of seasons that just strikes me as too big, even if you don't assume he'll benefit significantly from the whole VAR/handball thing. Also took the 100/1 for 15+ with Skybet.

I could not find market for Milivojevic on either Skybet or Paddy Powers platform. Are you able to help??

[harry_rag]

4 minutes ago, Ratty said:

I could not find market for Milivojevic on either Skybet or Paddy Powers platform. Are you able to help??

For the former; Home/Premier League Requestabets 19/20/Crystal Palace Requestabet 19/20/Show all (to expand the list) - prices still the same.

For PP; Home/Football/Specials/#WhatOddsPaddy - Player Total Goals 2019/20/Show more (to expand the list) - price still the same.

I've seen the 10+ bet offered at evens and 1/3 elsewhere! 

[StevieDay1983]

On 7/18/2019 at 2:10 PM, SPACEGHOST87 said:

Really like the team West Ham are putting together, had a nibble of Top Half Finish at 11/8 with Black Type.

Yes, I agree. I think people forget how accomplished Manuel Pellegrini is as a manager. West Ham had reached the stage where they were on the verge of another implosion but he's not only made the sweeping changes needed to stop the rot but he's also turning them into a side that with the right investment and approach over the next 3-4 years could be a team to break into the top six. I'd back them and Everton to be the two sides competing for 7th spot this season. It could be argued that if Manchester United and Chelsea slip up under their young managers then the top six could be breached this season.

[waynecoyne]

Oli mcburnie scored 22 in 42 for Swansea last year. Following a £20m move to Sheffield united,

he has been added to spreadex's season goals market at 6 to buy which seems attainable.

Edited August 3, 2019 by waynecoyne

[harry_rag]

12 hours ago, waynecoyne said:

Oli mcburnie scored 22 in 42 for Swansea last year. Following a £20m move to Sheffield united,

he has been added to spreadex's season goals market at 6 to buy which seems attainable.

Can't argue with that. Toyed with opting for his season goal minutes at 300 (logic being he might score a few late goal if he is used as a sub) but decided to keep it simple and follow you. Hopefully he's first choice given he's their record signing (so far).

[waynecoyne]

I have had a couple of goes at forecasting the top 4 in exact order.

Man city to beat liverpool is the first part of the bet - i don't think liverpool will be as close this year but they should be better than the rest.

When it comes to 3rd and 4th i have discounted man utd and chelsea as both have rookie managers and also chelsea have lost their best player and are stymied in their recruitment. I am not convinced by solskjaer and feel this will be a transitional year again.

Arsenal have recruited well with pepe, tierney and luiz. There are still question marks in central defence though. 

bets: man city, liverpool, tottenham, arsenal 18/1 skybet 3 points

         man city, liverpool, arsenal, tottenham 25/1 skybet 2 points

[harry_rag]

Might as well collate my antepost "portfolio" into a single post so I can look for congratulations or commiserations come the end of the season! I don't usually have this many bets but seem to have had a bit more time to have a look round this season.

10 points Jota (Wolves) >14 Premier League goals at 8/1 with Hills 

1.5 points Kane (Spurs) to score a goal from the halfway line or further in any EPL game at 80/1 with Skybet

10.5 points Milivojevic (Palace) to score 10+ Premier League goals at 7/2 with PP/Skybet

1 point Milivojevic to score 15+ Premier League goals at 100/1 with Skybet

Buy McBurnie (Sheffield U) Premier League goals for 15 points at 6 with SX

Sell total Premier League season penalties awarded for 5 points at 132 with SX