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StevieDay1983

Premier League 2019/20 Ante-Post Betting

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It's the 1st July today so it feels like we are now counting down to the start of the new Premier League season as opposed to looking back on the previous one. Here are the latest odds for outright winners, relegation, and top scorer. Lots to discuss and some interesting prices flying around. Let us know what bets you're looking at so we can come back at the end of the season and see who was closest with their predictions. :ok

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I had a bit of a nibble on Newcastle to be relegated @ 4.6 on Betfair Exchange when it was announced that Benitez had quit.

It's not the biggest price error in history but 4.6 is still a ways off from what I can make them, should be in the range of 3.0 - 3.5 in my view; as things stand.

Would love to know what Wolves transfer policy is for the summer window. Can any Wolves fans on here enlighten me? Do they have funds to boost the squad? Otherwise Bet365's 41.0 for relegation is huge considering they have a small squad and Europa League football to contend with.

Imagine getting 41.0 for Burnley relegation odds this time last year! Slightly different situation I know but Wolves incomming summer transfers / expansion of squad is key factor to any potential value play on their relegation odds here.

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Surprised to see spurs as third favourites in the PL title race, albeit a long way off the top two.  No chance of us challenging for the title as I think we will have a weaker team than last year if Eriksen and maybe Alderweireld go.

At the bottom, I like the look of Newcastle and like @Mindfulnesssays, they should be shorter than that.  No money, no manager and the club in turmoil suggests a very tough season for the toon.  

Could Palace be worth a shout at 6.5 if Zaha goes?  I think they've probably got enough about them if he does go, especially with Hodgson in charge, but the price would probably shorten if he did leave.

My main ante-post bet is to back Everton to finish in the top 4 at 21s.  Main reasoning being they finished last season strongly and have a good team already.  If they can strengthen with one or two more (particularly a decent striker), I think they've got enough about them to give the top 6 a good run for their money, especially as Chelsea are going to be weaker (no Hazard is massive), Arsenal are not improving and don't have much to spend to sort out their problems, and spurs may also be weaker.  And who knows with Man U who always seem to be in some sort of transition?!  

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15 hours ago, Mindfulness said:

I had a bit of a nibble on Newcastle to be relegated @ 4.6 on Betfair Exchange when it was announced that Benitez had quit.

It's not the biggest price error in history but 4.6 is still a ways off from what I can make them, should be in the range of 3.0 - 3.5 in my view; as things stand.

Would love to know what Wolves transfer policy is for the summer window. Can any Wolves fans on here enlighten me? Do they have funds to boost the squad? Otherwise Bet365's 41.0 for relegation is huge considering they have a small squad and Europa League football to contend with.

Imagine getting 41.0 for Burnley relegation odds this time last year! Slightly different situation I know but Wolves incomming summer transfers / expansion of squad is key factor to any potential value play on their relegation odds here.

Yes, Newcastle have to be taken at that price. I appreciate that the takeover could go through and they get a decent manager in but the clock is ticking. Every day that passes now eats into their pre-season preparations and that's going to be detrimental.

My mate is a Wolves fan and he's confident about this season. He thinks they're going to strengthen and finish mid-table again. However, he did say they need to address poor results against sides lower down. He said they won't perform as well as they did last season against the big teams so they are wary.

22 minutes ago, thfc said:

Surprised to see spurs as third favourites in the PL title race, albeit a long way off the top two.  No chance of us challenging for the title as I think we will have a weaker team than last year if Eriksen and maybe Alderweireld go.

At the bottom, I like the look of Newcastle and like @Mindfulnesssays, they should be shorter than that.  No money, no manager and the club in turmoil suggests a very tough season for the toon.  

Could Palace be worth a shout at 6.5 if Zaha goes?  I think they've probably got enough about them if he does go, especially with Hodgson in charge, but the price would probably shorten if he did leave.

My main ante-post bet is to back Everton to finish in the top 4 at 21s.  Main reasoning being they finished last season strongly and have a good team already.  If they can strengthen with one or two more (particularly a decent striker), I think they've got enough about them to give the top 6 a good run for their money, especially as Chelsea are going to be weaker (no Hazard is massive), Arsenal are not improving and don't have much to spend to sort out their problems, and spurs may also be weaker.  And who knows with Man U who always seem to be in some sort of transition?!  

I think Tottenham is probably fair. The only spanner in the works would be if Mauricio Pochettino leaves but I think they'll do all they can to keep him. I think only the Real Madrid job would tempt him away. Would he go to Barcelona after spending time at Espanyol? Only other job that would tempt him might be Bayern Munich. Can you honestly see Chelsea or Arsenal finishing above them? I don't think Eriksen or Alderweireld will go. Signing Ndombele will be a masterstroke too. He's exactly the sort of player they need.

Agree about Crystal Palace too. Their record without Zaha playing is terrible isn't it? Not sure even Roy Hodgson could save them unless they invest heavily and even that doesn't guarantee safety.

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Yes, surely Palace relegation odds will shorten if Zaha leaves but frankly I don't think Arsenal will put up the money for him. They are just trying to unsettle the player at the moment with derisory bids.

If Zaha wants to play for Arsenal then fair enough, he's been great for Palace over the years and is one of the main reasons we have consolidated in the EPL, there should be no bad blood if he leaves. However, Palace must get a respectable amount for him, especially as he has four years to run on his contract in an era of sky-high player valuations.

If Arsenal do manage to find the other half of his transfer fee (probably not in this window) then Dougie Freedman's role as sporting director will be key as to how Palace will progress in the near future.

The two examples I always cite is Rooney leaving Everton took them to the next level while Bale leaving Tottenham created chaos.

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1 hour ago, StevieDay1983 said:

I think Tottenham is probably fair. The only spanner in the works would be if Mauricio Pochettino leaves but I think they'll do all they can to keep him. I think only the Real Madrid job would tempt him away. Would he go to Barcelona after spending time at Espanyol? Only other job that would tempt him might be Bayern Munich. Can you honestly see Chelsea or Arsenal finishing above them? I don't think Eriksen or Alderweireld will go. Signing Ndombele will be a masterstroke too. He's exactly the sort of player they need.

Pochettino won't leave this season especially as spurs appear to be spending some money at last.  I've not seen Ndombele play so can't really comment on his ability but at £65m he'd better be good!

I fancy spurs for the top 4, but they will be at least as far away from the title as last season, and on that basis I think their odds are too short.  But the title race is tough to bet on, as it's highly likely to be between city and Liverpool. 

Arguably Liverpool could be a touch of value given they only lost by a point and in any other season their points tally would have been more than enough to take the title.  However, I can't help but feel they will slip back a bit this year, especially with Salah and Mane currently playing in the AFCON.  They will be most likely jaded for the start of the season and may take some time to get going.  

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Mindfulness said:

Yes, surely Palace relegation odds will shorten if Zaha leaves but frankly I don't think Arsenal will put up the money for him. They are just trying to unsettle the player at the moment with derisory bids.

I think Palace are holding out for Arsenal's inevitable £40,000,001 bid!

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Newcastle have accepted a bid from Leicester for Perez.  No big deal I originally thought but apparently he's been the team's top scorer the past two seasons so clearly will be a big loss.  Just makes the Newcastle to be relegated bet look even better. 

Taking the 4.5 on offer now as the price can only shorten from here, especially if some of the teams expected to be near the bottom make some astute signings.

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1 hour ago, thfc said:

Newcastle have accepted a bid from Leicester for Perez.  No big deal I originally thought but apparently he's been the team's top scorer the past two seasons so clearly will be a big loss.  Just makes the Newcastle to be relegated bet look even better. 

Taking the 4.5 on offer now as the price can only shorten from here, especially if some of the teams expected to be near the bottom make some astute signings.

Yeah, it's looking very daunting for the Toon Army. Not seen them linked with anyone either so improving the squad doesn't seem to be happening any time soon. As I said above, the clock is ticking. Summer transfer window closes a month earlier now. I'm not sure what they're playing at up there!

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I truly believe Manchester United will finish in top 4 this season and the odds of 6/5 seem worth a punt. Ole is doing smart transfers of hungry players that have the potential to grow and enhance the team. I don't like the fact that Manchester United is giving away contract renewals so easily... for example recently awarded Phil Jones with contract extension till 2023 but I guess they do not want to lose players for free. Even if Pogba goes to Juve or Real, I see the team better off this year as football is a weak link sport and Man United have already  improved two of their weakest spots - RB and RW. Tuanzebe may play as CB alongside Lindeloff if no one else is signed but most probably there will be some quality central defender signing with the funds from the almost certain sale of Lukaku. Arsenal and Chelsea look like a shadow of themselves, so unless there is some surprise team challenging the top 6 teams I reckon Manchester United will have just enough to edge in Champions League football again.

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On 7/7/2019 at 9:50 AM, vicsuna said:

I truly believe Manchester United will finish in top 4 this season and the odds of 6/5 seem worth a punt. Ole is doing smart transfers of hungry players that have the potential to grow and enhance the team. I don't like the fact that Manchester United is giving away contract renewals so easily... for example recently awarded Phil Jones with contract extension till 2023 but I guess they do not want to lose players for free. Even if Pogba goes to Juve or Real, I see the team better off this year as football is a weak link sport and Man United have already  improved two of their weakest spots - RB and RW. Tuanzebe may play as CB alongside Lindeloff if no one else is signed but most probably there will be some quality central defender signing with the funds from the almost certain sale of Lukaku. Arsenal and Chelsea look like a shadow of themselves, so unless there is some surprise team challenging the top 6 teams I reckon Manchester United will have just enough to edge in Champions League football again.

As a Cardiff fan who saw how tactically inept Solskjaer was back then, I can't share your view. When he started at United I honestly thought he'd learned his lesson but he's slipped back into old habits. You can tell the way he wants to play but he just doesn't buy the right players. If I had to pick one side that will slip out of the top six this season then it would be United. I'm not sure they will but things are toxic at that club right now and Solskjaer is blind or ignorant to it. The players he's bringing might be hungry but they're not good enough.

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