Premier League Predictions > Nov 2nd & 3rd

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

Here are the next round of odds and ratings for the Premier League. Take a look over them and tell us what bets are taking your interest this upcoming weekend. 

[thfc]

Wolves +1 is my main fancy this week.  Wolves always up their game against the big six, and won at Man City only a couple of weeks ago.  

Arsenal are in a state of disarray (as usual) and the atmosphere at the club seems to be turning a bit toxic like in the last of Wenger's days with the club.  Crystal Palace managed to get a draw at the Emirates last week even though they were 2-0 down after 10 minutes.  This seems to be a good time for a team to be playing Arsenal, especially as they managed to lose the cup game to Liverpool in midweek in heartbreaking fashion.  

I don't fully trust Wolves to get the win, but I think they are more than capable of getting at least a draw so happy to take them +1 at just over evens (various).

[thfc]

I'm also taking a bit of a punt on my team (spurs) winning at Everton.  Spurs are slight favourites around 2.6 to win the game (Everton 2.8).  Last season they were around 2.2 and I remember confidently backing them.  They won 6-2.  Spurs have an excellent record against Everton and haven't lost away at Goodison Park since 2012.  If there is an away game where spurs can look to turn their form around, I think this could be the one. 

This season, the away form is not so good, and hasn't been for a while.  However, it should be pointed out spurs have had a very tough start to the season for away fixtures, having already played Man City, Liverpool, Arsenal and Leicester away (2 draws, 2 losses).  The loss to Brighton was much worse, although Everton have just gone to Brighton and also lost. 

The main reason for the punt is more down to Everton's form.  Silva always seems to be 1 game away from the sack, and while they won in the cup midweek, spurs have had a week of rest to recover.  Before that, Everton lost at Brighton, and their general form has been disappointing all season, losing 4 PL games in a row not so long ago, including a home loss to Sheffield United.  They still suffer for not having a decent recognised striker otherwise I think they would be doing a lot better.

This is definitely a speculative punt so low stakes, but the price is just about good enough for me to back my own team, taking into account a weeks rest and a good record against Everton.  Both teams are in poor overall form, but for me spurs have the cutting edge in attack which i'm hoping will make a difference here.

[StevieDay1983]

15 hours ago, thfc said:

I'm also taking a bit of a punt on my team (spurs) winning at Everton.  Spurs are slight favourites around 2.6 to win the game (Everton 2.8).  Last season they were around 2.2 and I remember confidently backing them.  They won 6-2.  Spurs have an excellent record against Everton and haven't lost away at Goodison Park since 2012.  If there is an away game where spurs can look to turn their form around, I think this could be the one. 

This season, the away form is not so good, and hasn't been for a while.  However, it should be pointed out spurs have had a very tough start to the season for away fixtures, having already played Man City, Liverpool, Arsenal and Leicester away (2 draws, 2 losses).  The loss to Brighton was much worse, although Everton have just gone to Brighton and also lost. 

The main reason for the punt is more down to Everton's form.  Silva always seems to be 1 game away from the sack, and while they won in the cup midweek, spurs have had a week of rest to recover.  Before that, Everton lost at Brighton, and their general form has been disappointing all season, losing 4 PL games in a row not so long ago, including a home loss to Sheffield United.  They still suffer for not having a decent recognised striker otherwise I think they would be doing a lot better.

This is definitely a speculative punt so low stakes, but the price is just about good enough for me to back my own team, taking into account a weeks rest and a good record against Everton.  Both teams are in poor overall form, but for me spurs have the cutting edge in attack which i'm hoping will make a difference here.

How are you feeling about Tottenham right now? Reckon things are settling down? The performances against Ajax and Liverpool seemed a lot better.

[ggm31v]

Im confident Spurs will come good here, they played well against Liverpool and unlucky not to take a point in the end. We also played well previous to that against Red Star, I think Everton will leave themselves exposed and Spurs will take advantage here. Things aren't all good at Everton either, I think Silva is on borrowed time. I think it will be an open match with both sides scoring but Spurs coming away with 3 points, and Son likely to score!

[Judeksi]

I think ManU will continue their positive form this weekend. I saw the match Bournemouth played against Norwich 2 weeks ago and they actually looked kinda uninspired, all in all the match was a snoozefest. What is more important is that the expected goals table tells me that Bournemouth should be fighting the relegation battle with the goalscoring form they are having at the moment: https://experimental361.com/2019/10/26/expected-goals-league-tables-25-28-oct-2019/

ManU to win @ 2.21 with Pinnacle

 

[thfc]

1 hour ago, StevieDay1983 said:

How are you feeling about Tottenham right now? Reckon things are settling down? The performances against Ajax and Liverpool seemed a lot better.

It was Red Star rather than Ajax and they don't travel well so although a 5-0 win is always great, the level of the opposition needs to be taken into account. I wish it was Ajax we'd beaten 5-0!

I've been a spurs fan for over 30 years so know we have been overachieving the past 5 seasons or so the crisis we are going through at the moment has to be put into perspective.

I can't say i'm overly optimistic for spurs this season.  The entire back 4 (aurier, vertonghen, alderweireld and rose) all wanted to leave over the summer but are still first team regulars.  Ditto Eriksen in midfield who has been rubbish all season and clearly has his eyes on a move elsewhere.  Basically, the team needs a massive refresh (defense especially) and until that happens, I think spurs will struggle to keep a clean sheet and therefore won't be winning as many games as they have been over the last few seasons.  I hope one or two can be shipped out in January and replaced, but it may have to wait until next summer for a proper refresh.

All that being said, I still think spurs are a good bet this weekend, but that's just as much down to Everton's problems.

   

 

[StevieDay1983]

West Ham vs Newcastle

It's not the easiest week of fixtures for betting on in the Premier League this weekend so I'm starting with a game that I feel offers the best chance of an expected outcome. West Ham host Newcastle in a 3pm GMT kick-off this Saturday afternoon at the London Stadium and they'll be hoping to end a disappointing run of results in the league that has stalled their early season form.

West Ham had been looking like dark horses to gate crash the top four this season but it's now four league matches without a win for Manuel Pellegrini's side. Perhaps the most morale-damaging aspect of this run is that all four games have been against sides the Hammers would have been anticipating that they could take victories in. It's seen the club drop to 10th in the table and 7 points off the top four.

Newcastle sit nervously just outside the bottom three on 9 points and it's now just 1 league win in their last 7 league games under Steve Bruce. It's a sad sign of the times up on Tyneside that this season is purely about survival but with the club having lost 4 of their 5 away games this season it doesn't bode well heading into this fixture. The absence of key players Matt Ritchie, Florian Lejeune, and Fabian Schar through injury and Sean Longstaff through suspension is a big blow. This season is also the first time a Newcastle side has failed to score more than one goal in their opening 10 league matches.

I really can't see Newcastle winning this game. Can they get a draw? I feel these two sides are worlds apart and the only hope the Toon Army have got is by battening down the hatches and trying to steal a 0-0 draw. The attacking talent in West Ham's ranks is a luxury that Newcastle fans can only dream of right now and they'll feel the full force of that on Saturday. A convincing home win awaits.

West Ham -1 @ 3.40 with SpreadEx

West Ham HT/FT @ 3.00 with BetVictor

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[Mindfulness]

Sheffield Utd V Burnley

Burnley +0.25 AH @ 1.99 Betvictor

Price on the away side is starting to shorten so going to have to make a move here. Sheffield Utd may find this game difficult as Burnley are not the type of team to underestimate their opponents or play the kind of cavalier football that would play into Sheffield Utd's hands. We can see that Sheffield Utd, although 8th in the table, have only scored 3 goals at home so far this campaign. The Blades have shown good game management under the stewardship of Chris Wilder but their lack of firepower should be a concern for the home side here.

Burnley should be a tough side to play against and break down, it's never nice having to make the game against them. In my view their forwards are more adept and effective at this level than Sheffield Utd's and the ELO ratings give Burnley nearly half a goal advantage heading into this fixture. Key goal metrics also show a similar margin in Burnley's favour here. Burnley CF Chris Wood may miss this game through injury but Jay Rodriguez is a more than capable replacement in my view and their attack should not be hindered if Wood does miss out.

To summarise, this should be a hard-fought contest between two well-drilled units. Sheffield Utd may find it hard to make the game against an opponent that knows how to play 2 banks of 4 and a low block while Burnley themselves look to be the more dangerous team going forward by most key measures.

I expected the odds to be closer together for this match, Burnley on the +0.25 asian line at around EVS is the value play for me in this situation.

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Burnley have scored in each of their last 5 away matches in Premier League.
31% of Bournemouth’s conceded goals occurred in the first 15 minutes in Premier League.
70% of Manchester Utd’s matches had under 2.5 goals in Premier League.
38% of Liverpool’s conceded goals occurred after the 75th minute in Premier League.
70% of Aston Villa’s matches had over 2.5 goals scored in Premier League.

You can find interesting 108 Football Betting Streaks for 02.11.2019 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-02-11-2019-16272

[malabgd]

West Ham vs Newcastle Utd

West Ham

Doubtful: -

Out (injuries/other): Jack Wilshere (6/0 m), Lukasz Fabianski (7/0 first goalkeeper), Michail Antonio (3/0 m), Winston Reid (0/0 d)

Suspended: -

 

Newcastle Utd

Doubtful: -

Out (injuries/other): Matt Ritchie (3/0 m), Fabian Schar (9/1 d), Florian Lejeune (0/0 d)

Suspended: Sean Longstaff (8/0 m)

 

 

Watford FC vs Chelsea FC

Watford FC

Doubtful: Etienne Capoue (6/0 m)

Out (injuries/other): Domingos Quina (1/0 m), Ismaila Sarr (5/0 f), Tom Cleverley (9/1 m), Danny Welbeck (5/0 f), Troy Deeney (2/0 f, captain)

Suspended: -

 

Chelsea FC

Doubtful: Emerson (5/0 d)

Out (injuries/other): Ross Barkley (6/0 m), Andreas Christensen (6/0 d), N'Golo Kante (4/2 m), Antonio Rudiger (1/0 d), Ruben Loftus-Cheek (0/0 m), Marco van Ginkel (0/0 m)

Suspended: -

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[betcatalog]

I think Manchester United will win this fight, it comes with forums, with form. She seems to get some consistency in her game and has taken on psychology, and the confidence of the players is higher. Bournemouth have not scored a single goal in their last three games and will probably not be able to resist.
AFC BOURNEMOUTH vs MANCHESTER UNITED @@ MANCHESTER UNITED, odds 2.15
 

[shrewd.]

Anthony Martial to score anytime (For Manchester United vs. Bournemouth)

Ah, the (dreaded) lunch-time fixture. Well, who cares for superstition? Certainly not a gambler... right?!  Manchester United clicked into gear vs. Norwich last weekend, as expected, and Anthony Martial's presence was pivotal to that. Performance wise, he has grabbed this opportunity playing down the middle with both hands. He takes it in and holds it up well, has great awareness for runners and players around him, has nice link-play & has improved his off-the-ball movement too - he has just fit the centre forward role like a glove. He probably should've had 4 goals at the weekend, and that's no exaggeration. When he's in the side, Manchester United look like scoring. He makes everyone around him better and as we've seen vs. Chelsea, Wolves & Norwich, he can get on the end of them too.

 

Portsmouth to win draw-no-bet (vs. Oxford United)

Backing 16th placed Portsmouth to get a result at home to 5th & playoff pushing Oxford, although with a slight itch of caution, hence the draw-no-bet market. The underlying numbers suggest Pompey have been quite unlucky this season, and by the law of averages, should climb the table quite soon. Predominantly two 4-2-3-1 sides who both like to have the ball, but the home side seem to be more content to concede possession and control spaces when necessary, and I think those spells could prove the difference tomorrow. They've racked up two recent home wins vs. Lincoln & Bolton with 43% & 44% possession respectively, with solid pressing numbers (they only allow opponents to construct 8 passes before forcing a turnover) so far this season. I think all in all; a decent stylistic match up on top of being unbeaten at home this season, I fancy them to get a positive result tomorrow!

 

Newport/Salford both teams to score 

This should be quite an open game. With the home side missing their central midfielder Labadie, they could switch to a 5-3-2/3-4-1-2 variation as they've done at times this season, which would be a big plus for this selection when looking back at Salford's 2-2 draw vs. Morcambe earlier this season when they recorded 27 shots with an insane near 5 xG; so they match up very well up with this type of shape should Michael Flynn opt for it. Newport don't concede too many goals, but according to data, they've rode their luck a tad defensively, and could find themselves in a game tomorrow with the Class of 92's club.

 

• Anthony Martial to score anytime
• Portsmouth to win
• Newport/Salford both teams to score

 

The treble pays 9.69 at Marathon bet and around 8.80 generally.

 

EDIT: Sorry I just clocked this is PL only. Hope my treble's ok here, can be moved elsewhere if necessary!

Edited November 2, 2019 by shrewd.

[SgtTr]

I'm backing Bournemouth to stun Man Utd in the early kickoff. Guess the visiting side won't sit back like they did against Liverpool, and will even try to get the upper hand to continue on their mini unbeaten run and even aim for a convincing win to climb the table, and this might play in the hands of the hosts. Bournemouth have some quality players and are now savvy enough in the PL not to be fazed by the visiting team's stature. Would think Howe is a better manager than Ole and that could show on the pitch today.

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Tottenham have conceded 2 goals or more in each of their last 5 away matches in Premier League.
70% of Leicester City’s matches had over 2.5 goals scored in Premier League.
31% of Everton’s conceded goals occurred after the 75th minute in Premier League.
67% of Crystal Palace’s conceded goals occurred in the first half in Premier League.

You can find interesting 71 Football Betting Streaks for 03.11.2019 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-03-11-2019-16281

[StevieDay1983]

Crystal Palace vs Leicester

The first Sunday game in the Premier League is a potentially riveting clash between two clubs that are exceeding expectations this season. It's Crystal Palace versus Leicester in a 2pm GMT kick-off at Selhurst Park. Both teams will be coming into this game feeling they can take all 3 points from this encounter but where will we find the value in this intriguing clash.

Crystal Palace are 9th in the table ahead of the likes of Manchester United, Tottenham, and Wolves. Roy Hodgson's men have dropped points in their last two matches so their league position was even better a couple of games ago. The character shown in the 2-2 draw away to Arsenal in their most recent league game having come back from being 2-0 down after just 9 minutes is proof of what this Eagles side is all about. The team is boosted by the potential return of goalkeeper Vicente Guaita but Andros Townsend is a doubt. 

Leicester sealed a record-equalling 9-0 win away to Southampton last weekend. It was a result that moved Brendan Rodgers' side into 4th place in the table. It's now 6 wins from their last 8 league games. Winning this game would give the Foxes their best start to a top flight league campaign in their history. If you're a little superstitious when it comes to your betting then you'll want to know that Leicester have not claimed an away win on a Sunday since their title-winning season in 2015/16. Jamie Vardy has also now scored 18 goals in his 20 matches since Rodgers was appointed.

Palace will have confidence coming into this because they've won four successive matches against Leicester scoring 13 goals and conceding just 1 goal. I'm not sure they'll take the win here but I think they'll certainly have a chance at holding the visitors to a draw. I think if I was pushed to back a correct score then I'd go 1-1. I appreciate Leicester won so convincingly last week but just as we saw the Saints look a lot better this week, Leicester themselves might suffer a hangover after such a result.

Draw @ 3.50 with Betfred

BTTS @ 1.87 with SportNation

[StevieDay1983]

Everton vs Tottenham

A few comments and predictions have been made already on this game but I feel it's one where there's plenty of value to be found. Everton host Tottenham in a 4:30pm GMT clash on Sunday afternoon at Goodison Park. Neither team have performed as well as their players or fans will have expected this season so winning this game here has become a crucial objective.

Everton are currently in 17th place just 2 points above the relegation zone. Marco Silva remains the favourite with bookies to be the next top flight manager to be sacked. The Toffees have lost 6 of their last 8 league matches and the last gasp defeat to Brighton last weekend was a punch to the gut. Yerry Mina and Bernard are both doubtful after picking up injuries over the past week. Jean-Philippe Gbamin remains out. 9 out of the 10 points Everton have earned this season have come at home. However, the last time Everton beat Tottenham was December 2012. Tread carefully though. An interesting stat is that Everton have won 7 of their last 9 Premier League matches at home.

Tottenham have had a troubled season. Mauricio Pochettino's side were touted as potential title challengers after their recent campaigns and the impressive run to the Champions League final last season. Unfortunately, something just hasn't clicked leaving Spurs in 13th place in the table. It's three league games without a win but recent displays have been more positive. Tottenham haven't lost to Everton in their last 13 encounters. The worrying stat is that away form. Tottenham haven't won in their last 11 Premier League away matches including 9 defeats. The shining ray of hope for them? Harry Kane. The striker has bagged two goals in each of his last four matches against Everton.

I'm not sure why but I just feel this Tottenham away hoodoo has to end somewhere and Everton are the exact sort of team that will allow that to happen. I'm tempted to buck the trend and back a draw but I just feel Tottenham are starting to show signs of playing like the side they have been over recent years. It's perhaps a foolish decision but I think Tottenham to sneak a win and Kane to score is my chosen prediction.

Tottenham to Win @ 2.60 with Betfred

Anytime Scorer: Harry Kane @ 2.23 with Unibet