Torque

Not until it's complete. Also, I want to wait for the updated weather, they are apparently considering playing a lot of matches indoors, could turn out to be a very stupid tournament if things go wrong. Should've been postponed long ago. The only thing that I'm not afraid of putting out there is Jessica Pegula to beat Taylor Townsend at 1.58 with Pinnacle, Pegula is just better in every single regard currently.

Hi @Matty1290, and as @Sir Puntalot said, welcome. I probably should do what you suggest, but where's the glory in that! I might take my initial stake out at some point - that way I'm not losing 'my' money, but other than that I'll probably carry on until I hit a loser. Most likely the next bet for this thread will come from the Australian Open which starts in a few days - I'll be hoping there aren't any big upsets and that the conditions improve as poor air quality could lead to some strange results.

118/118 Bank @ £228.15 (£95.00 banked) 
Banking another £60.00 which takes me up to £140.00 profit banked so far. 
Will carry on with the remaining £73.15

Now that Storm ‘Arssehole’ is out the way and we’re currently experiencing Storm ‘Bet Bummer’, I’ve compiled a list (for non-league punters) of the next 24 storms in alphabetical order:


 



Storm Coupon Crusher


Storm Drizzle no bet


Storm Every time it rains (Pitch inspectors go insane)


Storm Fixture Failure


Storm Goodness gracious my spreadsheet is spacious


Storm Honey I shrunk the shortlist


Storm I don’t think we’ll make it to full-time


Storm Just the one game remaining


Storm Krone Killer (For non-league punters in the Danish sovereign wealth fund)


Storm Lost Lolly


Storm Money to the B 365


Storm No bet


Storm Off


Storm Push


Storm Questions need to be asked in parliament


Storm Refund


Storm Stakes returned


Storm Tarpaulin too much to ask for


Storm U gotta be kidding?!?!
Storm Void



Storm Why even bother if they’re not playing in the Tamplin Dome?


Storm X-pect the 1X messed with


Storm You only give (your stake to the same bet) twice


Storm Zealous over-use of the term ‘match abandoned’

 

I didn't see it, but it wouldn't have made any difference to me if I did in terms of whether to back Troicki this season because I think he's done at the top level in singles. Last year he was terrible and I don't see where any improvement is going to come from this year now that he's a year older and definitely in the 'veteran' category. Klahn obviously isn't great either so I can see why the price on Troicki is attractive, but I think there are better bets out there for the first round so it's one to leave alone for me.

Successful in the darts overall though @Fader which isn't easy to do so nice one 

Kristyna Pliskova to beat Elena Rybakina at 2.30 with Parions_Sport
It will be a 1st meeting between these 2 players. I expect a close encounter for my 1st tennis bet of the year.
Rybakina just eliminated Mertens (# 17) in 3 sets after having done the same with the Chinese favorite Zheng Saisai, thus confirming her fantastic 2019 season where she gained 150 places. For her part Pliskova just eliminated Bondarenko in 2 sets in just a little over 1 hour of play after having eliminated her 1st 2 opponents in the same expeditious manner, including the formidable Sabalenka (# 11).
The Czech hit 8 aces in the 1st round, 15 in the 2nd and 16 in the last game. This gives hope for an even bigger service against the Kazakh, especially if the latter begins to feel the accumulated fatigue of 2/3 matches over 2 hours..
 I wish you all a happy new year 2020, may success and health be with you!  

Right, I'm going to pull the trigger on Samantha Stosur to beat Madison Keys at 4.33 with Pinnacle. Stosur was pretty solid against Kerber and the odds are just ridiculous given that she's 3-0 against Keys, having beaten her as recently as last year in Miami. If it loses and I go -40pts early in the season, so be it, but I have a strong feeling that she shouldn't be above the 3.25 mark considering everything. The scoreline Keys got against Bouzkova flatters her too much and this match-up will be all about nerves anyway, both ladies tend to be either really good or really bad, with Keys having a much higher ability ceiling but much lower consistency. Some players are also complaining about the Brisbane conditions a bit, don't know if Keys is among them, but she's obviously more likely to hate them than Stosur. The odds suggest a 23.1% chance, I disagree, I would say about 35%, but remember that even that means that this bet is going to come in only about one in three times on average (and that's if I'm right).

If anyone else is watching the Shengzen tournament.. I saw some of the Zheng - Bondarenko match, and Pliskova - Sabalenka just now.. I really don't know about the form of these women but I usually like to fade Sabalenka when possible.. Missed the chance.. 
I can tell you that Bondarenko is in form and played very well. Pliskova was serving huge, and playing very well also confidently. So No. 1 and 2 seeds are cooked in China. More top players got knocked off in the last 36 hours than i can ever remember starting a year.. Pliskova would be pick to win because they face each other in the QF now.  
I am guessing the betting line will be -185 vs Pliskova, and I think thats an accurate line also.. Lets see what they come up with. 

You can get somewhat better payout by laying at Betfair. At the moment, you can lay Liverpool at 2.30; if you're on 7% commission, you should stake 3,305 £, for liability of 4,297 £.
If Liverpool wins, you win those 7,371, and lose 4,297, net 3,074; and if Liverpool fails to win, you get that stake, 3,305, or again 3,074 after commission.
You can play with the stake, of course, so to make one or other outcome pays more or less, depending on how confident you are about Liverpool winning.

A couple of quick updates:
Genoa are on to their third manager of the season after recently appointing Davide Nicola. Perhaps it was not the right time for Thiago Motta as the club is in a serious dog fight and cannot really piss about with new fangled ideas like 7 man midfields or rush goalies. The board must have realised they are fighting for Serie A survival and need someone at the reigns with previous; Nicola kept Crotone in this division a few years ago and that was basically a football miracle. Will be interesting to see how they get on in the second half of the campaign.
Fiorentina have replaced Vincenzo Montella with Beppe Iachini. Iachini is underrated as a manger imo, he can perhaps be viewed as the Italian Sam Allardyce. Expect Fiorentina to win the Scudetto, Coppa Italia and perhaps Champions League before Iachini is speedily replaced with a more glamorous appointment such as Cheryl Cole, Naomi Campbell etc. etc.

Bet 31 lost
Staked £123.00
Returned £149.71
Though it may not seem like it, every treble posted here has been the result of at least an hour studying stats,trends etc to arrive at selections. Sometimes I think i could do better simply saying: I think team A will win, or team B will lose. I'll stick with the method for a while but will let anyone following know if and when I change tack. Happy Christmas to all and good luck going forward. Will post some trebles tomorrow.

Saturday was not great with only Weston winning and Havant really should have covered the handicap with ease instead of only drawing which was especially frustrating. Anyway onto Boxing Day and I have 7 bets including 5 in the National League.

Dagenham & Redbridge v Ebbsfleet
Dagenham did manage to get pass Sutton in the FA Trophy, but they have lost 8 of their last 9 league games and as I mentioned when tipping Sutton up the 6-1 beating of Aldershot sticks out like a massive sore thumb. I just can't have Ebbsfleet as big as 13/5 for this given they have only lost one league game in their last 8. Granted they have drawn 4 of them, but they have been playing well and are unfortunate not to have picked up more wins.
Chesterfield v Solihull Moors
Solihull's away form nearly put me off this as it isn't as strong as it should be, but I think the Rotherham loss was to blame for the poor performance at Wrexham in their last away match and then prior to that they had picked up 7 points in their last 3 games on the road. Chesterfield beat Torquay on Saturday, but the home side pretty much gifted them the victory given they conceded in the first minute and then had a man sent off. That was their first win in 8 games and given they are playing the team I think are probably the best in the division it ought to be an away win.
Dover v Bromley
Bromley blew it big time on Saturday by gifting Eastleigh 3 goals and 3 wins in their last 9 league games is a bit of a concern, but it sums up the league that they are still bang in contention. I have to back them here though given Dover's poor home form which I have often spoken about on here and I would have them as favourites.
Harrogate v Hartlepool
Got to try again with Hartlepool after the FA Trophy game which should have been a winner. They are the better team for me and they should be wanting to prove a point after blowing a 2 goal lead.
Yeovil v Torquay
6 league losses on the bounce for the away side and I just don't see how they can suddenly beat Yeovil who have lost just once in 9. It was an impressive effort to come from 2 down to draw 2-2 at Fylde on Saturday and given Torquay are conceding goals for fun at the moment I can see Yeovil's impressive strike force causing them all sorts of problems. They should be odds on for me.
Guiseley v Farsley Celtic
The last time I opposed the home side was when they beat Gateshead which is their only victory in 9 league games! Hopefully we can get paid out this time as I think Farsely are the better team. Their away form is the 3rd best in the division only behind the top two in the table and I was impressed with their win against a Leamington side who have been showing a fair bit of improvement. They look value at 19/10.
Hendon v Harrow Borough
Hendon have proved they can do well against the teams around them in recent weeks and they look a good bet to beat a Harrow side who are badly out of form. They lost 4-0 to Weston on Saturday and have only picked up one point in their last 7 games. Hendon are much better at home than away as well having lost just one of their last 5 on the own patch.
Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365
Solihull Moors 1pt @ 34/25 with Marathon
Bromley 1pt @ 161/100 with Marathon
Hartlepool 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365
Yeovil 3pts @ 107/100 with Marathon
Farsley Celtic 1pt @ 19/10 with Bet365
Hendon 2pts @ 129/100 with Marathon
 
I hope everyone has a great Christmas with whatever you have planned and that we can have a profitable Boxing Day.
 
 
 
 

That's all the darts until Friday now. Have a good Xmas guys
[ PDC World Championships ]
bets = 10/17 matchplay. 2/10 accys. 0/2 outrights
bank = +31pts

860. £200 Blackburn @4/5 (v Wigan)
That's me done until Boxing Day. Have a great Christmas guys.

**No copying of bets (or deemed tactical) in the last week as your direct opponent, or it will be a loser.
** If you bank is less than £10 you have to go half bank
** Fri-Sun matches only this week
** New divisions will sorted on Monday morning.
Happy Christmas

 
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Saturday is the last day of fixtures before Christmas and the 3 National League divisions play Boxing Day, Saturday 28th, New Year’s Day and Saturday 4th. The step 3 divisions have spread their fixtures across those dates. 
As regards to previews there is a chance that Boxing Day tips will go up Sunday but chances are it will be Monday night. 28th tips will be be up Friday night but chances are it will be tips and no previews. New Year’s Day should be up Monday 30th at some point. Finally the 4th will most likely be up on the 3rd. Obviously a bit depends on when bookies price up but they should be up by those dates and of course they account for my plans over Christmas. Let’s hope we get some games on at the weekend and get a few quid for Christmas.

I'm usually shooting for something like 10+ season-long bets, here is what I've come up with so far. Unfortunately, it seems that the bookies are a bit scared by the long term markets this time around for some reason, so this is all with Unibet - if you find a good range somewhere, let me know and I'm going to take a look through it (and I really mean this)!
Top 50 - ATP Singles Ranking as of 30 November 2020 - Hyeon Chung - Yes at 1.85 with Unibet
Chung was obviously missing from action last year and that's why his ranking dropped so much, but he recovered well when he came back and I think that he's now ready to roll again. I don't know what's there to say honestly, I think that this one is only about fitness and the signs are that it should hold.
Top 70 - ATP Singles Ranking as of 30 November 2020 - Cameron Norrie - Yes at 1.88 with Unibet
I backed Cameron Norrie to do well in 2019 and I'm going to back him to do well in 2020 yet again, as he really matured as a player and as he is now an established guy that rarely fails to deliver. Sure, he might not have enough talent to make it to the really top spots, but he has what it takes to get a good run in major tournaments and even win one or two smaller ones, so he should have every chance to finish within top 70, if not even higher.
Top 80 - ATP Singles Ranking as of 30 November 2020 - Vasek Pospisil - Yes at 1.73 with Unibet
The Davis Cup that took place in November was interesting for all sorts of reasons, but the one man that stood out apart from Nadal was Vasek Pospisil. The Canadian had to go through all sorts of issues in recent times, but he seems to be on the up at the moment and he seems to be up for the singles again as well, so I think that we are going to see him go places in 2020. Besides, the top 80 line is so low that even one good GS run can be enough for it to be easily covered and I have no doubts that Pospisil can produce such a run.
Top 80 - ATP Singles Ranking as of 30 November 2020 - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Yes at 1.96 with Unibet
Top 100 - ATP Singles Ranking as of 30 November 2020 - Hugo Dellien - Yes at 2.08 with Unibet
I'm going to group these guys together, as the reasoning is pretty similar. Both played mainly in Challengers in 2019 and managed to finish quite up there in the rankings, so they should be both aiming to play the main events almost exclusively in 2020 - and they are both good enough to crush these lines talent-wise. There are some natural doubts about how they can compete outside clay, but Dellien looked amazing in Basel and Fokina just needs more prep, which he should be able to get in the off-season with some decent coaching.
Top 50 - WTA Singles Ranking as of 9 November 2020 - Rebecca Peterson - Yes at 1.88 with Unibet
Peterson's name might not be on anyone's list, but she's surprisingly consistent and still quite young, so I actually wouldn't be surprised to see her go again in 2020. She finished 44th in 2019 despite winning just three matches on the Grand Slam level, which is a really good achievement imo and one that shows that she just needs that little bit of experience to perhaps break through. The fact that she won two really good events in China at the end of the 2019 season should boost her confidence as well.
Top 70 - WTA Singles Ranking as of 9 November 2020 - Marie Bouzkova - Yes at 1.88 with Unibet
Honestly, this is the bet that I like the most from the entire list, as Bouzkova could easily finish much higher. She's tremendously talented and she's been working hard in the off-season from what I know, so I have no idea why she shouldn't deliver, fitness-permitting. I reckon that she's still flying under the radar for many, but she's a genuine gem imo.
Top 80 - WTA Singles Ranking as of 9 November 2020 - Laura Siegemund - Yes at 2.10 with Unibet
Laura Siegemund had to go through a long recovery process after a bad injury and she's not the youngest anymore, so this is somewhat risky on that account, but I don't see her giving up after a fairly promising 2019. She was top 30 for a good reason and she managed to beat many decent names in 2019, while the top 80 line can get smashed with just a single good GS run - and she has enough experience to get one if luck is on her side draw-wise.
Top 90 - WTA Singles Ranking as of 9 November 2020 - Jil Belen Teichmann - Yes at 1.96 with Unibet
Top 120 - WTA Singles Ranking as of 9 November 2020 - Jessica Pegula - Yes at 1.88 with Unibet
Finally, I'm also going to back two talented players in Teichmann and Pegula. I'm not quite sure whether they have what it takes to be really good in the long run, although Teichmann might be, but what made me go for these bets are the lines, which really are low given what Teichmann and Pegula are capable of here and there. Pegula was playing very little in 2019 and finished 83th despite all that, so there you go.

You're right. Though, I referred to one of commandments to betting: bet only with money that you can afford to lose, and I had in mind recreational bettors, not professional ones whose main occupation/source of income is gambling. If I lose money that I planned to go to pub with friends, no big deal, both are entertainment; if I lose money that I planned to pay the bills, that's issue.

Not in its original guise. I got a lot further with this than I expected and I'm happy with what I've made so far. It was getting progressively more difficult to find something to bet on each day that I liked the look of - probably because the further you get with something like this, the more loss-averse you become - and so I plan to try to hit the target by being very selective and only taking things that look as though they can't lose. Ultimately, when the loser comes I'll be happier having done it that way and I've already had a few close shaves on this thread and I'm almost certain if I'd carried on as I was I'd have hit a loser by now.

I've asked this in the past, but it wasn't something the forum liked the idea of.
*edit - however, i'm happy to add profit/loss on my own tips. I can start doing that from the Worlds. Remember though, you don't have a gun against your head with peoples tips. People love you then hate you in the same day with tips. You'll give them multiple 16/1 winners and then you get a couple of even shots lose and you're useless. It's a fickle world.

Not in its original guise. I got a lot further with this than I expected and I'm happy with what I've made so far. It was getting progressively more difficult to find something to bet on each day that I liked the look of - probably because the further you get with something like this, the more loss-averse you become - and so I plan to try to hit the target by being very selective and only taking things that look as though they can't lose. Ultimately, when the loser comes I'll be happier having done it that way and I've already had a few close shaves on this thread and I'm almost certain if I'd carried on as I was I'd have hit a loser by now.

Your observation is totally correct, you are absolutely right!
You only need to pay a bit of attention to your words that I emphasized above. If you check, you will see for yourself that odds for under 5.5 if one goal is scored at HT, and under 4.5 if no goals at HT, are barely 1.05 or even less. And if you check this year games, not a dozen of today games, but thousands of this year games, you will find that usually 5 out of 100 such a matches go over 5.5 or over 4.5. So, if you bet 100 units each time, you will win 5 units 95 times, add or take two or three times, and lose 100 units 5 times, add or take two or three times. Now do the math, and you will see where does your system go.
Though, if you are able to select games, not to bet on all today games or all this year games, but to select matches so that you hot over 4.5 or over 5.5 less than (100-100/odds) out of 100 matches, where "odds" are average winning odds you get, after commission, then indeed you have a profitable system. So, all you need is to find such a matches.

5 from 12 (Ridley, Mixon, Freeman, Pascal and Ekeler) makes for a 55 point profit (208 points staked returning 263) so a decent return but conclusive proof of neither my idiocy or genius! 
Overall figures now look like this. 6 winners from 15 bets (40%). 282 points returns 313.4 for a profit of 31.4 points with an ROI of 11.13%.

Detroit  at Minnesota: 19 points on Rudolph TD at 7/4 with Lads
Ok, so that's just the 9 early games looked at and already 161 points staked across 9 bets. That could look like I've been a bit ill disciplined or gone "on tilt" but I'd say there are a few mitigating factors! The spread firms have priced up an unusually high number of games and I only look at games where there's a spread price to consider. The games have thrown up more potential bets than usual and 9 of them have convinced me it's worth putting money down. Finally, I've had plenty of time today so don't feel I've rushed into these picks.
Win or lose, such a small sample won't prove anything either way but you might hear the sound of a slapped wrist if I do lose most of that stake!