Tennis Tips - January 3 - January 19

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Alright, first bets!

Nick Kyrgios (vs. Struff) + David Goffin (vs. Albot) at 2.08 with Bet365

Stefanos Tsitsipas (vs. Shapovalov) + John Isner (vs. Ruud) at 2.13 with Bet365

Diego Schwartzman (vs. Hurkacz) + Gael Monfils (vs. Garin) at 2.08 with Bet365

I've gone through all the first round matches in the ATP Cup and I think that the favorites are very likely to dominate. It seems quite clear to me that the odds are a bit inflated given that this really is some sort of an exhibition, but the Australian Open is coming soon and everyone will want to do well, so motivation issues shouldn't come into play. I don't have any comments to give about the chosen pairings, those are more or less random, but, if you're looking for just one single, I think Kyrgios should be a solid bet given that it's Australia and given that Struff always has pressure issues despite being quite experienced already.

[South_African_Punter]

Outright bet: Spain to win the ATP CUP at 3.95 with BetWay

On paper, Spain have the best team, with all of the three players being in the Top 30 (and Rafa does tend to get pumped for team events - see the Davis Cup). They will have no problem topping their group, or beating their opponents in the QF, who won't be a group winner. The winners of group C or F should also not pose too many problems for Spain. They'd then either face Serbia or Russia I think...Spain would prefer to face Russia, given Khachanov's patchy form in 2019, however, even if they face Serbia, Djokovic's abysmal record in doubles in the recent Davis Cup should ensure that Spain are marginal favourites in that match-up.

Edited December 31, 2019 by South_African_Punter

[matrixman]

Personally I think France at 10-1 are a heck of a bet to win it. ragin doubles team and two good players in singles.Great value.

[CzechPunter]

It's like the Davis Cup in all those past years, right? France always with the best team on paper and (almost) never really delivering.

[South_African_Punter]

9 hours ago, matrixman said:

Personally I think France at 10-1 are a heck of a bet to win it. ragin doubles team and two good players in singles.Great value.

The weakness for France is in the singles. Paire and Simon cannot be relied on to perform well from one day to the next, and Monfils did pull out of an invitational event in December citing an injury. Also Pierre Herbert won't be pairing Mahut for the doubles for France.

Edited January 2, 2020 by South_African_Punter

[CzechPunter]

Well, seems like the markets have moved against me in essentially all the matches, so let's see . 

[CzechPunter]

Well, alright, a decent enough start, but I can't - in good conscience - recommend the final double anymore.

[Striker]

Think the next player on the WTA to breakthrough for a Grand Slam win will be Sofia Kenin

She won 3 times last year, and has only just turned 21

 

Kicks her Australian campaign off in Brisbane next week and I'm already on at 25's [Currently 20-1]

[CzechPunter]

Hard to say what happened there, as Diego seemed to have the upper hand for most of the match, but there you go, just unfortunate.

David Goffin (-3.5) to beat Daniel Evans at 1.91 with Pinnacle

I was trying to look at the various qualifiers, but, at the end of the day, the only bet that I've found is this one. Goffin had some serious issues last year and many were wondering about his chances against Albot, but he crushed that guy and then gave an interview about how well he feels, so I fancy him to beat Evans with something to spare as well. Admittedly, the line isn't particularly comfortable given that Goffin is likely to go into the match with Belgium leading 1-0, but I'm willing to risk it nonetheless. Evans is one of those players with no big weapons, which makes him the ideal target for Goffin, who has no really big weapons himself, but who's actually one of the best no-big-weapons players on the tour. Evans should find it very hard to stay in rallies with him.

[Striker]

19 hours ago, Striker said:

Think the next player on the WTA to breakthrough for a Grand Slam win will be Sofia Kenin

She won 3 times last year, and has only just turned 21

 

Kicks her Australian campaign off in Brisbane next week and I'm already on at 25's [Currently 20-1]

Also taken the 50-1 each way for the Australian Open with Boylesports

[Wekkey]

Fabio Fognini vs Casper Ruud

my bet is on fognini to win the match at 1.58 with bet365

 

 

[Teodore]

Any analys? 

[Wekkey]

1 hour ago, Wekkey said:

Fabio Fognini vs Casper Ruud

my bet is on fognini to win the match at 1.58 with bet365

 

 

considering the head to head this is the first match between these two players

saw both of their last matches ... where fognini looked amazing in the first set against medvedev .. and rudd beating isner .....

here as i see the match is between a experienced veteran and next genration player .. and i see experienced winning here

i am not at all taking rudd out of the game ... i am sure this will going to be an intresting and tough match ... but in the end as per my prediction ... fognini will win it by 2-1 

 

thanks

[CzechPunter]

Right. Obviously not the start that I wanted with Goffin being pathetic today, but the season has just started. Will be focusing a bit more on bigger odds from now on as announced. That naturally means that there are bound to be some bad streaks along the way, but, hopefully, they are going to be balanced by some nice wins in the meantime. Anyway, I did make a resolution to try something a bit different, so fingers crossed that this is going to be yet another of those profitable seasons.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to beat Petra Kvitova at 3.05 with Pinnacle

I suppose that we all know what's going on over in Australia and some players simply aren't taking heat well. Goffin was suffering a bit today and Kvitova is having both heat problems and breathing problems, which is something that could be a major issue given that the air quality in Australia isn't that great these days either. I've got no doubts about Kvitova's superiority over Anastasia quality-wise, but this looks worth a punt under the current circumstances

[CzechPunter]

Casper Ruud (+1.5 sets) to beat Daniil Medvedev at 3.47 with Pinnacle

Fair play to Medvedev, but come on, this is such an inflated price that I need to take it no matter what. Both guys have started the season superbly, the Russians are almost guaranteed to win the tie even if Medvedev loses, while Ruud will surely want to play his heart out given that this is one of his very first chances to play and perhaps even trouble one of the world's best. He's taking a set off the Russian here at least once per three matches imo, so there's definitely value in the odds.

[South_African_Punter]

On 1/3/2020 at 10:04 PM, Striker said:

Think the next player on the WTA to breakthrough for a Grand Slam win will be Sofia Kenin

She won 3 times last year, and has only just turned 21

 

Kicks her Australian campaign off in Brisbane next week and I'm already on at 25's [Currently 20-1]

Thanks. Taken Kenin @ 20.0 and in the other half of the draw Svitolina @ 8.0

[CzechPunter]

Corentin Moutet to beat Tennys Sandgren at 1.74 with Pinnacle

For tomorrow, the only bet that I fancy is Moutet to beat Sandgren. Moutet has already played two matches in Doha, having little problems against Martin and especially the very dangerous Popyrin, so he looks primed to come on top of what he should see as a very winnable match. I'm not sure where Sandgren is at right now, on the other hand, as he was posting home music videos just a week ago and as his last match was a fairly shameful defeat against Redlicki. He's not to be underestimated, of course, but I think that there's a very decent chance that he's going to go into this a bit undercooked.

[Grass Cash]

Its exciting that tennis season is back on now.. I know you feel exactly the same way @CzechPunter 

I am looking at the Bublik - Mannarino match.. Seems like the odds are a bit off because the line should really be 1.9 for each player. I think most tennis people you will ask would rate this anybodies to win especially with Frenchman's very poor start to last season also.. Bublik might be able to hold serve quite easily, and give Mannarino trouble on his own serve. 

[Grass Cash]

Aljaz Bedene to beat Mikael Ymer @ -110 with William Hill

Basic info is I believe that Bedene is in top form physically right now, and Ymer is the exact opposite. Ymer really had a good season last year, but I believe Bedene likes these types of small tournaments and with the advancement to the r16 in 2018.. This should give enough leverage to back him factoring the current fitness level.. Enjoy!

[Grass Cash]

Right now I'm watching several matches.. Kerber not impressing and casual vs Stosur .. drops the first set tiebreak after leading in it, and struggling.. Muchova vs Riske is the more interesting match. I haven't watched it super closely but it seems like Riske is doing a serviceable level, and the real issue is Muchova's poor performance to the open the season. Alot of errors and double fault as I'm typing this.  Brisbane plays similar to an indoor court with the half roof, and this is a factor I only began to take notice of within the past couple of years, but I think it certainly makes a difference. If Riske does advance which she will easily soon if this continues.. She will match up against Strycova.  Strycova is coming off a win vs Konta with 2.62 odds. I think will be close the odds here with this one, and I won't be surprised if Strycova wins. 

[Grass Cash]

Unfortunately Bouchard was my top pick upcoming pick, and I talked myself out of it .. just watched the match instead.. You can disregard my other picks because I'm sure they are probably no good anymore.. good luck all.. Bouchard said Netflix and Chill in her interview.. She's in good form, and will challenge Garcia in the next round for sure. Just in case anyone is interested.. The matchstat website looks to be up again after a long period of problems atleast for tennis infos. 

[Grass Cash]

Fernando Verdasco -280 vs Pablo Andujar with William Hill

Locked in this time for a bet.. I'm completely out of my zone, and going to start betting favorites as much as underdogs now.. Its time to steamroll, and use any means necessary to get that done. This bet I liked today from the beginning and was looking to parlay it with something.. I almost lost on Muchova.. 

Andujar is just not in the same physical conditioning, and Dasco always plays well here.. 2-2 h2h Grudge match but too much power for lefty. 

[KennyDelight]

Ludmila Samsonova 2.50 to beat Sloane Stephens Bet365 @WTA Brisbane

Reasons:

Ludmila has been training and playing during the month of December during the indoor swing, pulling off wins v Corbet and Giorgi

Has 3 matches under her belt in Brisbane, including a decent win v Mladenovic

Sloane Stephens had an average 2019 and has an average record in Australia, so a match on the outside courts first up at 11am may not get her motivated v a big hitting opponent who can frustrate her

 

[CzechPunter]

@KennyDelight moved to the right thread, good luck!

[Grass Cash]

interesting pick @KennyDelight. Certainly seems possible considering recent results.. If Stephens shows up in quality form .. should win.. Thats alot to ask of Sloane nowadays. 

[Grass Cash]

Great pick Kenny.. just saw the result 

[KennyDelight]

23 minutes ago, money44 said:

Great pick Kenny.. just saw the result 

Thanks Money

Was a bit worried when she came onto court with strapping on her thigh, her first service dropped to about 30%, even conspired to throw away a double break lead, but she pulled through against a pretty here and there performance by Stephens

I would not back Ludmila v Pavlyuchenkova/Kvitova, but glad she had enough to get it done today

[South_African_Punter]

Jennifer Brady to beat Maria Sharapova at 2.38 with Betway

Brady qualified for WTA Brisbrane with three comprehensive victories in the qualifiers. As we all know, Sharapova was ravaged by injury in 2019 and besides an exhibition match in late 2019 (which she won), there is no real indicator of her current form and I believe Brady is good enough to exploit her lack of match practice.