harry_rag Posted May 16, 2019 Share Posted May 16, 2019 A fairly "Ronseal" title for this thread. Simple proposition with a simple aim (if I post 100 bets that I am confident are value will the results bear that out)? Been doing this for years and have areas that I tend to specialise in but have been looking back over this year's results and having a bit of a Dean Friedman moment (concluding that I'm not as smart as I like to think I am). It would probably be a good idea for me to place less bets, and spend more time on researching them. Those that make it into this thread will be ones where I have enough time to both do the research and post the selection. Hitting the 100 takes as long as it takes. No bank as such though I'll set a stop loss of -500 points. Stakes will vary depending on odds and perceived value. First bets to follow shortly (nothing will be posted with less than 30 minutes notice). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 16, 2019 Author Share Posted May 16, 2019 Opening salvo all come in tonight's Leeds v Castleford game and all with 365. Time won't always permit the positing of any rationale but it will always be along similar lines. Eden to score a try - 25 points at 11/10 Eden to score 2 or more tries - 8 points at 13/2 Aston to score a try - 12 points at 7/2 Spread prices suggest Eden should be odds on to score a try (you can sell his try minutes at 35 which I'd equate to around 4/5). He is indeed odds on with every other firm. He's scored in 7 out of 14 Superleague starts this season, ten tries in total including a brace on 3 occasions. Hard to see that he should be more than 4/1 for 2 or more and is shorter than that elsewhere. Similar story with Aston who would merit a second look at anything above 9/4 and still be tempting at the next best 3/1 with Lads/Coral. He's scored in 3 out of 4 Superleague games this season and in last weekend's Challenge Cup game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 17, 2019 Author Share Posted May 17, 2019 18 hours ago, harry_rag said: Eden to score a try - 25 points at 11/10 Eden to score 2 or more tries - 8 points at 13/2 Aston to score a try - 12 points at 7/2 1 winner from 3 bets (33.33%) 45 points staked, 52.5 points returned +7.25 points ROI 16.11% thecurlyone1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 25, 2019 Author Share Posted May 25, 2019 Wakefield v Catalans: 25 points on Caton-Brown to score a try at 5/4 with Fred 8 points on Caton-Brown to score 2 or more at 6/1 with Lads 2 points on Caton-Brown to score a hat trick at 28/1 with Lads 15 points on Jowitt to score a try at 11/4 with Lads Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 25, 2019 Author Share Posted May 25, 2019 Hull v Huddersfield: 12 points on Westerman to score a try at 7/2 with Lads 25 points on McGillvary to score a try at 6/5 with Lads Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 26, 2019 Author Share Posted May 26, 2019 Just McGillvary scoring a try to show for yesterday's 6 bets, 87 points risked and 55 returned for a 32 point loss. Overall record now looks like this: 2 winners from 9 bets (22.22%) 132 points staked, 107.5 points returned -24.5 points ROI -18.56% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 26, 2019 Author Share Posted May 26, 2019 Salford Hull KR 25 points on Evalds to score a try at 11/8 with Lads 15 points on Lussick to score a try at 14/5 with Lads Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 26, 2019 Author Share Posted May 26, 2019 Leeds v London 25 points on Handley to score a try at evens with Skybet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 26, 2019 Author Share Posted May 26, 2019 St Helens v Castleford: 20 points on Lomax to score a try at 13/8 with Lads 10 points on Lomax to score a try in the 1st half at 5/1 with Lads 12 points on Aston to score a try at 7/2 with Lads Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 26, 2019 Author Share Posted May 26, 2019 A better day today, tries from Lussick, Handley and Lomax (in the 1st half) make it 4 out of 6. 107 points risked and 219.5 returned for a 112.5 point profit. Overall record now looks like this: 6 winners from 15 bets (40%) 239 points staked, 327 points returned +88 points ROI 36.82% thecurlyone1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 27, 2019 Author Share Posted May 27, 2019 At last, a bet on something other than Rugby League! Aston Villa v Derby: 18 points on Abraham to score at 2/1 with Fred 10 points on Harry Wilson to score at 4/1 with Fred Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 27, 2019 Author Share Posted May 27, 2019 I should add that both of those bets are boosted odds listed under "Monday Football Specials" but the prices are available with Fred or the Tote and no stake limits applied. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 Bloody football! No joy with those two so a 28 point loss. Overall record now looks like this: 6 winners from 17 bets (35.29%) 267 points staked, 327 points returned +60 points ROI 22.47%% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 30, 2019 Author Share Posted May 30, 2019 Hull v Catalans 26 points on Kelly to score a try at 19/10 with Lads (boosted from an acceptable 15/8) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 30, 2019 Author Share Posted May 30, 2019 Kelly obliges. 7 winners from 18 bets (38.89%) 293 points staked, 402.4 points returned +109.4 points ROI 37.34% LEE-GRAYS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 30, 2019 Author Share Posted May 30, 2019 Blues v Bulls Buy Caleb Clarke try minutes for 1 point at 15 with Spreadex Two firsts for the thread; first spread bet and first on Rugby Union. Why might it be value? Well, I'd equate a buy at 15 to around 12/5 anytime when the best available price is 7/4 with Spreadex then 6/5. Also, he's 20 to buy elsewhere which is much closer to that 7/4 assessment, Stats wise, not much to go off as he's a young player just breaking into the team. 2 tries in 6 appearances and well regarded with the U20 All Blacks. Plays on the right wing with his left wing counterpart Rieko Ioane being more than double the price on the spreads and odds on with the bookies. Whilst Ioane deserves to be favoured I'd say Clarke is still a little under rated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 31, 2019 Author Share Posted May 31, 2019 No joy there so -15 points for the day so far. Hull KR v Warrington: 16 points on Hall to score a try at 9/4 with Skybet 12 points on Keinhorst to score a try at 7/2 with Lads Not sure what the etiquette is on prices that are cut between backing and posting but Hall was trimmed to 7/4 pretty much as soon as my (paltry) stake was down! I would also have been posting Lineham at 11/10 but that was re-offered to me at 5/6 so no bet there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 31, 2019 Author Share Posted May 31, 2019 Late try for Hall saves the day; 1 from 3 with 43 points risked and 52 returned. 8 winners from 21 bets (38.1%) 336 points staked, 454.4 points returned +118.4 points ROI 35.24% Whilst the narrative of this thread might be looking like "just bet on rugby league" it is, of course, still a very small sample (and not something that would be borne out by my overall experience of betting on the sport). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 31, 2019 Author Share Posted May 31, 2019 Early NRL game, Bulldogs v Raiders: 24 points on Reimis Smith to score a try at 5/4 with 888 Pretty much the minimum odds at which he's a bet for me but does feel close to an "odds against about a coin toss" scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 31, 2019 Author Share Posted May 31, 2019 And one in the Reds v Jaguares Super Rugby game: Orlando to score a try at 11/4 with 365 Ok at next best 13/5 with Sportsbook. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 1, 2019 Author Share Posted June 1, 2019 13 hours ago, harry_rag said: And one in the Reds v Jaguares Super Rugby game: Orlando to score a try at 11/4 with 365 Would help if I stated the stake! It was 14 points (I'm pretty much staking to return 50 points with a bit of rounding up). No joy with the 2 early bets so -38 points so far. Next up is St Helens v Wakefield and it's not often I see so many strongly fancied prices in a single game. 24 points on Lomax to score a try at 5/4 with Lads 24 points on Naiqama to score a try at 5/4 with Fred 15 points on Caton-Brown to score a try at 5/2 with Skybet (12/5 Lads or 9/4 Hills still fine) 3 points on Caton-Brown to score 2 or more tries at 18/1 with Lads (used price boost; 16/1 fine) 15 points on Grace to score a try in the 1st half at 5/2 with Lads 12 points on Naiqama to score a try in the 1st half at 10/3 with Lads 8 points on Lomax and Caton-Brown to score a try at 6/1 with Fred So that's just the 101 points risked on 7 bets in a single game! No doubts in my mind that all of those are sound bets and I'd be very surprised to get no return whatsoever (I'll be watching the Champions League final wearing a dunce's cap if that should happen). Essentially we've got 3 standard anytime bets, the 2 other bets involving Caton-Brown that reflect the chasm between how the spreads and fixed odds firms rate his prospects of scoring (he'd be 6/4 anytime at most based on the spreads). That leaves the 2 "first half" bets that reflect my belief that Lads tend to be generous in the prices they offer compared to the straight anytime. If the player's perceived to be value to score anytime then he seems to be even better value where they offer a "first half" price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 1, 2019 Author Share Posted June 1, 2019 Caton-Brown not playing so that should mean 3 of the bets are void. Champions League final: 25 points on Son not to play the whole game at 3/1 with 888 (under Player Specials) Void if he doesn't start. My strongest bet on the final and, possibly, the best bet in this thread so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 2, 2019 Author Share Posted June 2, 2019 3 winners from 7 yesterday in the end, with the 3 bets involving Caton-Brown all void due to him not playing. Tries for Grace (in 1st half), Lomax and Naiqama. 22.5 points profit. 11 winners from 28 bets (39.29%) 474 points staked, 614.9 points returned +140.9 points ROI 29.73% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 2, 2019 Author Share Posted June 2, 2019 Bradford v Halifax 24 points on Grant to score a try at 6/5 with Lads 20 points on Ryan to score a try at 6/4 with Lads 10 points on Farrell to score a try at 19/4 with Lads (fine at 9/2 without boost) 16 points on Tyrer to score a try at 9/4 with Skybet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 3, 2019 Author Share Posted June 3, 2019 Just a Tyrer try from yesterday's 4 bets so an 18 point loss. 12 winners from 32 bets (37.5%) 544 points staked, 666.9 points returned +122.9 points ROI 22.59% thecurlyone1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 6, 2019 Author Share Posted June 6, 2019 Another attempt to break the duck for non-RL bets, in tomorrow's Highlanders v Bulls game. 18 points on Li to score a try at 15/8 with Spreadex. A fairly typical scenario here, with the spreads suggesting a player should be around the 7/5 mark and even money being the best price elsewhere. To be honest, on the stats it's an ok bet at 15/8 rather than great and I wouldn't be touching it at evens or worse. The unusual thing here is that it's Spreadex offering best price given that the bet is flagged by the spreads. Rare for them to offer a fixed odds price that's out of line with their spread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 6, 2019 Author Share Posted June 6, 2019 Rabbitohs v Knights 14 points on Hunt to score a try at 3/1 with 888 (16/5 if you can get on with BF Sportsbook) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 6, 2019 Author Share Posted June 6, 2019 One in the other early NRL game, Tigers v Raiders. 14 points on Nicoll-Klokstad to score a try at 11/4 with 365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 7, 2019 Author Share Posted June 7, 2019 A try for Hunt so 1 out of 3 and a small profit so far today. Had a look at this evening's Superleague games and, disappointingly, they just yield a single bet. 10 points on Handley to score a try in the 1st half at 9/2 with Lads Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 7, 2019 Author Share Posted June 7, 2019 6 hours ago, harry_rag said: A try for Hunt so 1 out of 3 and a small profit so far today. Had a look at this evening's Superleague games and, disappointingly, they just yield a single bet. 10 points on Handley to score a try in the 1st half at 9/2 with Lads Oops, that's in Wakefield v Leeds. No tries in the first half so the bet is a losing one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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