Announcements
*** New Last Man Standing Competition - Win up to £1500 Annually - See Competitions Forum ***
*** September Competition Winners: Well done to Mickyftm32 (NAPS/KO Cup), & Avongirl (Poker) ***
Sign in to follow this  
harry_rag

100 Value Bets

Recommended Posts

A fairly "Ronseal" title for this thread. Simple proposition with a simple aim (if I post 100 bets that I am confident are value will the results bear that out)?

Been doing this for years and have areas that I tend to specialise in but have been looking back over this year's results and having a bit of a Dean Friedman moment (concluding that I'm not as smart as I like to think I am). It would probably be a good idea for me to place less bets, and spend more time on researching them. Those that make it into this thread will be ones where I have enough time to both do the research and post the selection. Hitting the 100 takes as long as it takes.

No bank as such though I'll set a stop loss of -500 points. Stakes will vary depending on odds and perceived value. First bets to follow shortly (nothing will be posted with less than 30 minutes notice).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Opening salvo all come in tonight's Leeds v Castleford game and all with 365. Time won't always permit the positing of any rationale but it will always be along similar lines.

Eden to score a try - 25 points at 11/10

Eden to score 2 or more tries - 8 points at 13/2

Aston to score a try - 12 points at 7/2

Spread prices suggest Eden should be odds on to score a try (you can sell his try minutes at 35 which I'd equate to around 4/5). He is indeed odds on with every other firm. He's scored in 7 out of 14 Superleague starts this season, ten tries in total including a brace on 3 occasions. Hard to see that he should be more than 4/1 for 2 or more and is shorter than that elsewhere.

Similar story with Aston who would merit a second look at anything above 9/4 and still be tempting at the next best 3/1 with Lads/Coral. He's scored in 3 out of 4 Superleague games this season and in last weekend's Challenge Cup game.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Eden to score a try - 25 points at 11/10 :ok

Eden to score 2 or more tries - 8 points at 13/2 :eyes

Aston to score a try - 12 points at 7/2 :eyes

1 winner from 3 bets (33.33%)

45 points staked, 52.5 points returned

+7.25 points

ROI 16.11%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wakefield v Catalans:

25 points on Caton-Brown to score a try at 5/4 with Fred

8 points on Caton-Brown to score 2 or more at 6/1 with Lads

2 points on Caton-Brown to score a hat trick at 28/1 with Lads

15 points on Jowitt to score a try at 11/4 with Lads

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just McGillvary scoring a try to show for yesterday's 6 bets, 87 points risked and 55 returned for a 32 point loss. Overall record now looks like this:

2 winners from 9 bets (22.22%)

132 points staked, 107.5 points returned

-24.5 points

ROI -18.56%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A better day today, tries from Lussick, Handley and Lomax (in the 1st half) make it 4 out of 6. 107 points risked and 219.5 returned for a 112.5 point profit. Overall record now looks like this:

6 winners from 15 bets (40%)

239 points staked, 327 points returned

+88 points

ROI 36.82%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Blues v Bulls

Buy Caleb Clarke try minutes for 1 point at 15 with Spreadex

Two firsts for the thread; first spread bet and first on Rugby Union. Why might it be value? Well, I'd equate a buy at 15 to around 12/5 anytime when the best available price is 7/4 with Spreadex then 6/5. Also, he's 20 to buy elsewhere which is much closer to that 7/4 assessment,

Stats wise, not much to go off as he's a young player just breaking into the team. 2 tries in 6 appearances and well regarded with the U20 All Blacks. Plays on the right wing with his left wing counterpart Rieko Ioane being more than double the price on the spreads and odds on with the bookies. Whilst Ioane deserves to be favoured I'd say Clarke is still a little under rated.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No joy there so -15 points for the day so far.

Hull KR v Warrington:

16 points on Hall to score a try at 9/4 with Skybet

12 points on Keinhorst to score a try at 7/2 with Lads

Not sure what the etiquette is on prices that are cut between backing and posting but Hall was trimmed to 7/4 pretty much as soon as my (paltry) stake was down! I would also have been posting Lineham at 11/10 but that was re-offered to me at 5/6 so no bet there. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Late try for Hall saves the day; 1 from 3 with 43 points risked and 52 returned.

8 winners from 21 bets (38.1%)

336 points staked, 454.4 points returned

+118.4 points

ROI 35.24%

Whilst the narrative of this thread might be looking like "just bet on rugby league" it is, of course, still a very small sample (and not something that would be borne out by my overall experience of betting on the sport).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Early NRL game, Bulldogs v Raiders:

24 points on Reimis Smith to score a try at 5/4 with 888

Pretty much the minimum odds at which he's a bet for me but does feel close to an "odds against about a coin toss" scenario.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, harry_rag said:

And one in the Reds v Jaguares Super Rugby game:

Orlando to score a try at 11/4 with 365

Would help if I stated the stake! It was 14 points (I'm pretty much staking to return 50 points with a bit of rounding up). No joy with the 2 early bets so -38 points so far.

Next up is St Helens v Wakefield and it's not often I see so many strongly fancied prices in a single game.

24 points on Lomax to score a try at 5/4 with Lads

24 points on Naiqama to score a try at 5/4 with Fred

15 points on Caton-Brown to score a try at 5/2 with Skybet (12/5 Lads or 9/4 Hills still fine)

3 points on Caton-Brown to score 2 or more tries at 18/1 with Lads (used price boost; 16/1 fine)

15 points on Grace to score a try in the 1st half at 5/2 with Lads

12 points on Naiqama to score a try in the 1st half at 10/3 with Lads

8 points on Lomax and Caton-Brown to score a try at 6/1 with Fred

So that's just the 101 points risked on 7 bets in a single game! :eek

No doubts in my mind that all of those are sound bets and I'd be very surprised to get no return whatsoever (I'll be watching the Champions League final wearing a dunce's cap if that should happen). Essentially we've got 3 standard anytime bets, the 2 other bets involving Caton-Brown that reflect the chasm between how the spreads and fixed odds firms rate his prospects of scoring (he'd be 6/4 anytime at most based on the spreads). That leaves the 2 "first half" bets that reflect my belief that Lads tend to be generous in the prices they offer compared to the straight anytime. If the player's perceived to be value to score anytime then he seems to be even better value where they offer a "first half" price.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Caton-Brown not playing so that should mean 3 of the bets are void.

Champions League final:

25 points on Son not to play the whole game at 3/1 with 888 (under Player Specials)

Void if he doesn't start. My strongest bet on the final and, possibly, the best bet in this thread so far.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3 winners from 7 yesterday in the end, with the 3 bets involving Caton-Brown all void due to him not playing. Tries for Grace (in 1st half), Lomax and Naiqama. 22.5 points profit.

11 winners from 28 bets (39.29%)

474 points staked, 614.9 points returned

+140.9 points

ROI 29.73%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bradford v Halifax

24 points on Grant to score a try at 6/5 with Lads

20 points on Ryan to score a try at 6/4 with Lads

10 points on Farrell to score a try at 19/4 with Lads (fine at 9/2 without boost)

16 points on Tyrer to score a try at 9/4 with Skybet

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this