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100 Value Bets

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A fairly "Ronseal" title for this thread. Simple proposition with a simple aim (if I post 100 bets that I am confident are value will the results bear that out)?

Been doing this for years and have areas that I tend to specialise in but have been looking back over this year's results and having a bit of a Dean Friedman moment (concluding that I'm not as smart as I like to think I am). It would probably be a good idea for me to place less bets, and spend more time on researching them. Those that make it into this thread will be ones where I have enough time to both do the research and post the selection. Hitting the 100 takes as long as it takes.

No bank as such though I'll set a stop loss of -500 points. Stakes will vary depending on odds and perceived value. First bets to follow shortly (nothing will be posted with less than 30 minutes notice).

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Opening salvo all come in tonight's Leeds v Castleford game and all with 365. Time won't always permit the positing of any rationale but it will always be along similar lines.

Eden to score a try - 25 points at 11/10

Eden to score 2 or more tries - 8 points at 13/2

Aston to score a try - 12 points at 7/2

Spread prices suggest Eden should be odds on to score a try (you can sell his try minutes at 35 which I'd equate to around 4/5). He is indeed odds on with every other firm. He's scored in 7 out of 14 Superleague starts this season, ten tries in total including a brace on 3 occasions. Hard to see that he should be more than 4/1 for 2 or more and is shorter than that elsewhere.

Similar story with Aston who would merit a second look at anything above 9/4 and still be tempting at the next best 3/1 with Lads/Coral. He's scored in 3 out of 4 Superleague games this season and in last weekend's Challenge Cup game.


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18 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Eden to score a try - 25 points at 11/10 :ok

Eden to score 2 or more tries - 8 points at 13/2 :eyes

Aston to score a try - 12 points at 7/2 :eyes

1 winner from 3 bets (33.33%)

45 points staked, 52.5 points returned

+7.25 points

ROI 16.11%

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Wakefield v Catalans:

25 points on Caton-Brown to score a try at 5/4 with Fred

8 points on Caton-Brown to score 2 or more at 6/1 with Lads

2 points on Caton-Brown to score a hat trick at 28/1 with Lads

15 points on Jowitt to score a try at 11/4 with Lads

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Just McGillvary scoring a try to show for yesterday's 6 bets, 87 points risked and 55 returned for a 32 point loss. Overall record now looks like this:

2 winners from 9 bets (22.22%)

132 points staked, 107.5 points returned

-24.5 points

ROI -18.56%

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A better day today, tries from Lussick, Handley and Lomax (in the 1st half) make it 4 out of 6. 107 points risked and 219.5 returned for a 112.5 point profit. Overall record now looks like this:

6 winners from 15 bets (40%)

239 points staked, 327 points returned

+88 points

ROI 36.82%

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Blues v Bulls

Buy Caleb Clarke try minutes for 1 point at 15 with Spreadex

Two firsts for the thread; first spread bet and first on Rugby Union. Why might it be value? Well, I'd equate a buy at 15 to around 12/5 anytime when the best available price is 7/4 with Spreadex then 6/5. Also, he's 20 to buy elsewhere which is much closer to that 7/4 assessment,

Stats wise, not much to go off as he's a young player just breaking into the team. 2 tries in 6 appearances and well regarded with the U20 All Blacks. Plays on the right wing with his left wing counterpart Rieko Ioane being more than double the price on the spreads and odds on with the bookies. Whilst Ioane deserves to be favoured I'd say Clarke is still a little under rated.

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No joy there so -15 points for the day so far.

Hull KR v Warrington:

16 points on Hall to score a try at 9/4 with Skybet

12 points on Keinhorst to score a try at 7/2 with Lads

Not sure what the etiquette is on prices that are cut between backing and posting but Hall was trimmed to 7/4 pretty much as soon as my (paltry) stake was down! I would also have been posting Lineham at 11/10 but that was re-offered to me at 5/6 so no bet there. 

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Late try for Hall saves the day; 1 from 3 with 43 points risked and 52 returned.

8 winners from 21 bets (38.1%)

336 points staked, 454.4 points returned

+118.4 points

ROI 35.24%

Whilst the narrative of this thread might be looking like "just bet on rugby league" it is, of course, still a very small sample (and not something that would be borne out by my overall experience of betting on the sport).

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13 hours ago, harry_rag said:

And one in the Reds v Jaguares Super Rugby game:

Orlando to score a try at 11/4 with 365

Would help if I stated the stake! It was 14 points (I'm pretty much staking to return 50 points with a bit of rounding up). No joy with the 2 early bets so -38 points so far.

Next up is St Helens v Wakefield and it's not often I see so many strongly fancied prices in a single game.

24 points on Lomax to score a try at 5/4 with Lads

24 points on Naiqama to score a try at 5/4 with Fred

15 points on Caton-Brown to score a try at 5/2 with Skybet (12/5 Lads or 9/4 Hills still fine)

3 points on Caton-Brown to score 2 or more tries at 18/1 with Lads (used price boost; 16/1 fine)

15 points on Grace to score a try in the 1st half at 5/2 with Lads

12 points on Naiqama to score a try in the 1st half at 10/3 with Lads

8 points on Lomax and Caton-Brown to score a try at 6/1 with Fred

So that's just the 101 points risked on 7 bets in a single game! :eek

No doubts in my mind that all of those are sound bets and I'd be very surprised to get no return whatsoever (I'll be watching the Champions League final wearing a dunce's cap if that should happen). Essentially we've got 3 standard anytime bets, the 2 other bets involving Caton-Brown that reflect the chasm between how the spreads and fixed odds firms rate his prospects of scoring (he'd be 6/4 anytime at most based on the spreads). That leaves the 2 "first half" bets that reflect my belief that Lads tend to be generous in the prices they offer compared to the straight anytime. If the player's perceived to be value to score anytime then he seems to be even better value where they offer a "first half" price.

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Caton-Brown not playing so that should mean 3 of the bets are void.

Champions League final:

25 points on Son not to play the whole game at 3/1 with 888 (under Player Specials)

Void if he doesn't start. My strongest bet on the final and, possibly, the best bet in this thread so far.

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3 winners from 7 yesterday in the end, with the 3 bets involving Caton-Brown all void due to him not playing. Tries for Grace (in 1st half), Lomax and Naiqama. 22.5 points profit.

11 winners from 28 bets (39.29%)

474 points staked, 614.9 points returned

+140.9 points

ROI 29.73%

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Bradford v Halifax

24 points on Grant to score a try at 6/5 with Lads

20 points on Ryan to score a try at 6/4 with Lads

10 points on Farrell to score a try at 19/4 with Lads (fine at 9/2 without boost)

16 points on Tyrer to score a try at 9/4 with Skybet

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    • Result Limerick 03:25 PIPER BOMB.....nowhere ( 7/1 ) Chester 03:45 ANGEL ALEXANDER.....1st..11/10 Rule 4 Applies @ 5% Todays Profit =  + 0.45 pts Current Years Profit 2019 =  + 119.62 pts.   (Years Profit 2018 = + 90.52 pts.) (Years Profit 2017 = - 73.44 pts.) (Years Profit 2016 = + 437.86 pts.) (Years Profit 2015 = + 18.52 pts.) (Years Loss 2014 = - 30.20 pts.) (Years Loss 2013 = - 105.06 pts.) (Years Profit 2012 = +127.65 pts.) (Years Loss 2011 = - 13.82 pts.) (Years Profit 2010 = +166.01 pts.) Bank = + 2621.00 pts. Profit = + 2521.00 pts   Current Winning Run =  1
    • very hard to trust this bet , betting on Qatar to not lose Risky , I feel cant set on my nervous 90 minutes with Qatar 😄  I know them and I Know their defense too  I maybe agree betting on Qatar 0.75 worth small stake but I dont feel good to bet on this one 
    • Uruguay vs Ecuador One of the more intriguing group stage matches is coming up this Sunday when Uruguay and Ecuador meet in an 11pm BST kick-off at the Estadio Mineirao in Belo Horizonte. Neither side has enjoyed much success in this competition over recent years so this opening game is a big chance to put those ghosts to rest. Uruguay remain under the management of Oscar Tabarez. It's now 13 years in charge of the national team for the experienced head coach. During his tenure at the helm, he's guided Uruguay to the 2011 Copa America title and a 4th placed finish in the 2010 World Cup and 2013 Confederations Cup. Unfortunately, in this competition they didn't even make it out of the group stage in 2016 and struggled to the Quarter-Finals in 2015. La Celeste do come into this tournament off the back of three wins with clean sheets kept in all three games. Admittedly, the opposition were only Panama, Thailand, and Uzbekistan. Ecuador are one of only two countries in South America to have never won the Copa America. La Tricolor's best performances were a 4th placed finish in both 1959 and 1993. They've only managed to navigate past the group stage once in the last seven tournaments. Hernan Dario Gomez's side come into this game without a win in their last 4 matches. I have a soft spot for Uruguay. On the day I went to get fitted for my wedding suit in 2012 it was when the Olympic Games were taking place. Uruguay had a game in Cardiff so the team was based there and I bumped into a few of them on Duke Street opposite the castle. They were all very pleasant including Tabarez. So on that basis I'm back them to win here. Well, not just that but I think they'll have too much for a weak Ecuador side. Uruguay -1 @ 3.50 with SpreadEx Uruguay HT/FT @ 3.00 with Ladbrokes @jazzman02, @real55555, @hristofor, @Peter_Portman, @Podosfairistis, @Niceguy, @markus808, @Feduloff, @clubgowi, @Neubs, @Hunter12, @salmonman, @JuMeSyn, @recklessrookie, @janesill, @Mustionown, @potus, @kevinjoh, @dinero, @Hutcho_CFC, @roveruk, @matrixman, @Jazzer Isaac, @Dylan Lynch, @Tiffy, @Kenton Schweppes, @MangoTheThird, @neilovan, @mcsilks, @Ameer, @thfc, @Roy The Boy, @Tim81, @sajtion, @newjack, @Gedkip, @Mindfulness, @Magic0024, @mijOsim, @canaries91, @waynecoyne, @allyhibs, @four-leaf, @Icongene, @malabgd, @Stevecw, @Xcout, @Teodore, @Bobby Vegas, @Darran, @DrO, @mtom, @KikoCy, @betcatalog, @immortal--, @allthethings, @DW_United, @Pipoca, @liamcorrigan86, @vasilli07, @Misa, @Pep004, @rOYS123, @thinkpink63, @ant8n, @BobEire, @RIOT88, @Power90, @Adley, @Alexc, @bastia, @Ameer. @Odyssey, and @Marek76, are any of you guys betting on these Group C matches?
    • Lola Paige 14.45 Doncaster 1 Pt Win @ 11\2 Bet365 Foaled February 25. 220,000 gns yearling, Galileo filly. Dam, maiden (stayed 1m), half-sister to smart winner up to 11f Tha'ir. Interesting newcomer. 
    • Celtic Manor 16.30 Doncaster 1 Pt Win @ 15\8 (bog) Looks a typical progressive sort from his yard, winning 5f Windsor novice on return 3 weeks ago. Step back up to 6f should suit now handicapping and there's surely more to come.  Deburrafield 16.00 Downpatrick 1 Pt Win @ 7\4 (bog) Fair hurdler. Very good second of 16 in handicap hurdle (25/1) at Ballinrobe (20.3f, good) 20 days ago, sticking to task. 
    • 16.55 Gowran park - Rehoboth Beach - 1 Pt Win @ 10\1 Bet365
    • Paraguay vs Qatar The Group B action continues on Sunday night when Paraguay and Qatar go head-to-head in an 8pm BST kick-off at the Estadio do Maracana in Rio de Janeiro. Considering the other two teams in this group are Argentina and Colombia then defeat would surely spell the beginning of the end in this tournament for whichever teams loses. Paraguay come into this game in truly dreadful form having won just 1 of their last 8 matches. The glimmer of hope for Eduardo Berizzo's side is that they beat Guatemala 2-0 in their most recent game so they enter this tournament off the back of a victory. Berizzo has only been in the job since February this year replacing the departing Juan Carlos Osorio. Having avoided defeat, albeit against abject opposition, in their last two matches could the poor run of form be coming to an end? Qatar are set to host the 2022 World Cup. It was a controversial issue and remains so. However, the Arabic nation is embracing it and they even managed to win the 2019 Asian Cup. As @Ameer states, there are reasons for that so let's not look too deeply into that. Almoez Ali won the golden boot at that tournament in January and February. Can they spring a surprise on another continent? Winning 7 of their last 8 matches with the solitary defeat coming against Brazil suggests they could well do with Felix Sanchez Bas organising his side effectively. I'm not sure who will win this. I want to back Ameer and say Paraguay but I wouldn't be surprised if this in-form Qatar side takes something from this game. I'm swaying towards a draw but I still think Paraguay might just be starting to click under Berizzo. I have to back the draw though I think it's worth placing a double chance bet on Qatar if you feel they could get something. Draw @ 3.50 with SpreadEx Anytime Scorer: Almoez Ali @ 4.75 with Bet365
    • Great work! Very positive start so far. Let's see how we fare with Group B over the couple of days.
    • 3rd -  in touch, headway 3f out, switched right over 2f out, effort over 1f out, ridden to lead briefly inside final furlong, ran on
    • 2nd - took keen hold, held up, went 3rd from the 3rd, went 2nd approaching 3 out, led last, headed flat, soon beaten 1st @ Evs - chased leaders in 3rd, went 2nd from 3f out and improved to dispute lead from 2f out, ridden to lead over 1f out and kept on well inside final furlong 7th - prominent, led after 2f, ridden and headed over 3f out, soon lost place, behind over 2f out 4th - soon led, joined briefly halfway, led again early straight, strongly pressed over 1f out and headed 100 yards out, soon carried left and kept on one pace  
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