Do you rely on recent forms,trends and streaks to make your bets?

[Rey86]

back in the day i used to rely exclusively on streaks and trends

i made some profits occasionally and i always got surprised when lossing a bet

and that happen a lot

 

i found this article claiming that it is bad idea to bet based on recent results

 

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2015/08/team-form-recency-bias-and-regression-to-the-mean/

 

what do you guys think? 

[giraldi]

I think that, as a general rule, is a bad idea to bet just based on everybody knows. I am pretty sure that the recent results are very well known and accessible.

Of course, if the form or trend are very good, the team has great probability to win but will not get a correct price for sure

On the other hand, if not check the recent results, what else to check? Ok, will check the players, the field, ...etc. but how will put this in numbers? Can somebody tell me how will affect the performance if 2 important players are missing? will have 15% less chances to win, maybe 20%? The odds have value? I would calculate how the team performed without those palyers...in the recent games.

Finally, the recent results are the best  we have to start with  and to have a starting number (percent). If we are not able to find more and to adjust those percents in a direction or another the best option is to drop the game and to look for something else. 

 

[froment]

On 12/9/2019 at 1:06 PM, Rey86 said:

it is bad idea to bet based on recent results

Maybe it is bad idea, but it's certainly nice idea, I enjoy crumbling numbers, especially when you have a vast source of statistcis, similar to one created by poster above, Giraldi, check site in his signature to see what is next level statistics. And I think it's valid as long as you see betting as entertainment and not source of living.

As for your article, I can hardly take seriously people who play "football" using hands, and who christened actual football as "soccer". Why not checking native British expert, Joe Buchdachl, he has several amusing books on that topic, and you can find nice and short briefing on stats based betting in his site: https://www.football-data.co.uk/ratings.pdf

Finally, PuntersLounge has its own stats based system, ELO Ratings, and @NickP recently proved that it can be successfull, see here:

Overall, I believe you cannot generalize that systems based on stats are good or bad; they are as good or as bad as you can process available statistics and predict when match will follow the trend and when it will deviate.

[Rey86]

1 hour ago, froment said:

  And I think it's valid as long as you see betting as entertainment and not source of living.

 

 

nobody who puts money on betting does it for entertainment

we all do it to make some money

[froment]

On 12/11/2019 at 11:29 PM, Rey86 said:

 

nobody who puts money on betting does it for entertainment

we all do it to make some money

You're right. Though, I referred to one of commandments to betting: bet only with money that you can afford to lose, and I had in mind recreational bettors, not professional ones whose main occupation/source of income is gambling. If I lose money that I planned to go to pub with friends, no big deal, both are entertainment; if I lose money that I planned to pay the bills, that's issue.