giraldi

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giraldi last won the day on March 9 2017

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About giraldi

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 05/13/68

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  1. Did not have the time to present a few new features created based on users requests. I created a few new buttons that will allow you much more advanced filters. For example in the picture below I want to see what happened in Premier League after the underdog, playing away, scored first before 20 minutes, then still lead in the 70th minute. We can see on the bottom table that the system found 91 games since 2005. The underdog managed to won just around 62% games. It seems a low value to me for just 20 minutes remained. As a bouns, I added a button to see the odds instead of percents. Need to click CALCULATE button if you want to change that
  2. The number of goals scored depends on period of the year? Probably I will study this. Anyway, following a few suggestions I added two filters in order to see only the goals scored: - between 2 months (for example winter months like in the picture ) - last 15, 30 or 60 days..etc
  3. johnnybravvo,Josy, DKY install the software, click UPDATE then follow the instructions provided there.
  4. thesage, the odds are from Pinnacle. Probably there are no odds for this market. I checked and many games have odds but a lot of games have not indeed. I will check anyway, I introduced last time the new add-on. I managed to check and to add the goals minute for about 40 leagues since 2010 season. I remember that for the top 5 countries, first 2 leagues data is available since 2005 season. For example, in the picture you can see the first goal scored minute for all the leagues available for the last 5 years, in percent.
  5. Every month are released at least 2 licenses for PL users. I think the last 2 months were released much more. The next 2 will be available after 1st of December. Just expected a correct feed-back, here or to my email adress. I would appreciate especially negative opinions and suggestions to improve. Now, I would like to introduce a new add-on. It is under constructions so any suggestion would be appreciated. The bug reports will be appreciated also. There are a lot of data and calculations so unexpected results are still possible. Please play with it and report any error. If you click on the Adv. Goals button on menu bar there will be 2 pages of stats. First one will allow you to see the goals minutes, team by team or at league level. For now, there is stats only for top 5 leagues, first and second level. The results are for 15 seasons back. Next months will be added other leagues also. Will be possible also to click on a cell in the first table then to see in the bottom table what happened next... On the bottom control panel you can set a lot of parameters... The second page will allow you to see, for a specific leagues what was the result in different markets for example if the home team scored in the first 15 minutes then score is still 1-0 in the 70 minutes...etc
  6. Small leagues or Big ones

    No opinions here? First of all I do not agree that Paraguay...Brasilian Serie B.. are small leagues if we look from finding value point of view. In my opinion small leagues are those leagues where the players interest was and it is minimum, not too much money involved and the bookies have not enough data from the past to make good odds for them. Anyway, to say that is easier to find value in the small leagues is the same thing like you say that is easier to win to LOTO if play 2 tickets than if you play just one. Your chances are double but still.... My answer is YES, it is easier to find values in small leagues because bookies have not enough data, there are not enough players to bet on opposite markets (like Home, Draw, Away..etc). They offer relative odds based on what they have with the hope there will be enough players on all markets to have a win-win-win situation. So, YES, if you have genuine info about games in lower leagues - this is a huge advantage over the bookies and over the other players. Of course it is "relatively" hard to have only you (or just a few) info about Reak Madrid but maybe only a few will know that a small team from the next town just celebrated something and the food was not so good ... and maybe that goalkeeper had a argue with 2 colegues due to a girl...etc. So the final answer is YES but if the value is based on real info (not statistics or something else)
  7. I am sorry for the late response.. Jammo Of course will not be possible to see the games where will not be goals in the first 15 minutes but we can see what happened in the past and to hope that there is a pattern There are many possibilities to see that. For example in UPCOMNG, I selected today-s games, then set the right side parameters like in the picture below and select to see only the games where both teams scored less than 0.5 in more than 80% of the games. Of course is just an example that will give you a few games, not necessary good to play but to check further.... then finally to make a decision. johnnybravvo I really do not know how are calculated the ELO values on PL. I use a classic formula you can find over the net. DIF_H and DIF_A means the difference between ELO before the game and ELO after the game. Can be very useful at some point. If you are in TABLES then select a team on the right side will see the team-s games. Wll be highlighted the differences between ELO values before and after games where the values are over the value you can set on the button just below the table. It can show you very fast the good/bad results.
  8. Natural strategy

    Thank you for your intervention. I am always open to learn and I am already open to get advices from far more experienced players like you seem to be. Your opinions about value, luck and bad luck in betting..etc opened my eyes and now I understand how the things works. I feel very lucky you wrote in my thread. P.S. My Away strategy - the main strategy and the single one tested last year with success is doing OK. I really do not understand what you said about Osters and why do you think that "most" would have gone for the away team. Even the fact that odds were so high shows that most of the players have gone for the home team not away team. This is just my opinion.
  9. Natural strategy

    My selections for today: For the Away strategy (37 units played, 0.38 units won, +1.03%) A38: Atalanta - Parma 2 @ 9.07 (my fav for today) A39: Tenerife - Alcoron 2 @ 3.98 A40: Kapfenberger 1919 - Wiener Neustadt 2 @ 2.81 A41: Inter Zapresic - Gorica 2 @ 2.95 For the Home strategy (11 units played, 11 units lost, - 100.%) H12: Notts - Swindon 1 @ 2.51 H13: Pogon Szczecin - Lech Poznan 1 @ 2.50 For the Draw strategy (16 units played, 0.22 units won, 1.38%) D17: Oxford - Shrewsbury X @ 3.26 D18: Livorno - Ascoli X @ 2.92 D19: Lugo - Cadiz X @ 2.97 D20: Sporting Farense - Cova Piedade X @ 3.13
  10. Natural strategy

    A very small profit yesterday, but still profit My selections for today: For the Away strategy (34 units played, 3.38 units won, +9.94%) A35: Mattersburg - St. Polten 2 @ 3.58 A36: Legia - Wisla 2 @ 4.95 A37: Elfsborg - Sundsvall 2 @ 2.95 For the Home strategy (11 units played, 11 units lost, - 100.%) It is against odds to lost 11 in a row . Will take a few days break here For the Draw strategy (14 units played, 0.92 units lost, -6.57%) D15: Betis - Valladoid X @ 3.97 D16: Zaragoza - Tenerife II X @ 3.14
  11. Natural strategy

    My selections for today: For Away strategy (31 units played, 2.63 units won, +8.48%) A32: Kaiserslautern - Uerdingen 05 2 @ 3.44 A33: Shalke 04 - Bremen 2 @ 3.75 A34: Barcelona - Sevilla 2 @ 8.16 For Home strategy (10 units played, 10 units lost, - 100.%) H11: Aluminij K- Domzale 1 @ 3.60 For Draw strategy (11 units played, 1.64 units lost, -14.91%) D12: Valencia - Leganes X @ 3.72 D13: Wiedenbruck - Cologne II X @ 3.56 D14: Vila Nova - Juventude X @ 3.22
  12. You selected to see what percent of games were not won by the home teams (the final result was Draw or Away won). The values tell you that selected home team not won 66.667% of the played games since the league average is 52.164%. 13(11) tells you that the position in the total league is 13 and the team position conssidering only home games is 11 Exactly the same way, away team not lost 33.333% of the games played since the league average is 52.164%. 4(2) tells you that the position in the total league is 4 since the position, considering only away games is 2 I admit that the software seems pretty hard to be used at first sight but it was not built to be easy to use but useful for those that use stats to make their decision. I just have not wanted to create something very attractive and facile that will prove to be empty inside. By the way, if there will be someone telling us that he never use stats in betting ... do not believe him. As long as you do not have insight info (maybe your best friend is brother in low with the best friend of the manager..something like that ) you have to rely on tables to see what happened in the last games, the teams positions...etc. This is a kind of stats. 90% of our betting is placed based only on team position in the table. We see Barcelona - Getafe and instantly "we know" that Barcelona will win. Just because is Barcelona? So there are some stupid guys that give us 110 Eur back if bet 100 on Barcelona? Life seems so easy :))
  13. Natural strategy

    Good profit yesterday ... 35% but it seems that my Home strategy is one of "the best" around. Not. As I said I will not quit Home strategy until will lost 50 units. If we used to say that a profitable strategy have to prove that on long period why not a bad strategy have to be proven bad on long period also? Maybe it is the best strategy ever but just need time to prove it. My selections for today: For Away strategy (30 units played, 3.63 units won, +12.10%) A31: Rapid Vienna - Mattersburgl 2 @ 4.82 (will try again againt Rapid...) For Home strategy (10 units played, 10 units lost, - 100.%) For Draw strategy (7 units played, 2.36 units won, +33.71%) D8: Livorno - Spezia X @ 2.94 D9: Boavista - Aves X @ 3.45 D10: Braga - Academico X @ 3.24 D11: Yenisey - Spartak X @ 3.30
  14. I started to work to create a new feature that will allow us to see some useful statistics about goals scored. This tool will answer to questions like: - how many games home team had the score 1-1 in 30 minute? - how many games home team had been lost the game in the 60 minute? - how many times away team scored 2 goals between minutes 60-90? - how many times home team conceded 1 goal between 15-45 minutes? and much more.... I am open to other suggestions and ,if possible, will be added to this form.
  15. Natural strategy

    Over all a little bit profit yesterday ... 10% My selections for today: For Away strategy (27 units played, 0.04 units won, +0.15%) A28: Bristol Rovers - Walsall 2 @ 3.48 A29: Ebbsfleet - Harrogate 2 @ 3.11 A30: Augsburg II - Schalding-H 2 @ 3.31 For Home strategy (8 units played, 8 units lost, - 100.%) H9: Budissa - Leipzig 1 @ 3.47 For Draw strategy (5 units played, 1.45 units won, +29%) D6: Carpi - Cosenza X @ 2.91 D7: Sligo Rovers - Bray Wanderers X @ 5.29