giraldi

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giraldi last won the day on March 9

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About giraldi

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  • Birthday 05/13/68

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  1. Following some suggestions I introduced new options for the Advanced Rating Maker: Not won Not draw Not lost GG NG and also the GG and NG on the results container. In the picture below I created a simple rating for today's Premier games, based on GG and Over 2.5 goals then I wanted to see what happened this season in the Premier considering the same rating values. (+/- 5 points) for the Stoke - West Ham match The total number of similar games was not very big, only 15, but we can see that indeed Over 2.5 and GG happened more often.
  2. Thank you for your advice. I totally agree with you. Any software must be easy to understand and to use. But, if you read about my software, I stated it is "a powerful tool for experienced players". I have just wanted to be fair and to present my project as it is – not very easy to use. My software will be impossible to use for some and will be loved by others, nothing between. On the other hand, even a beginner may find some very simple tools - as straight tables, (maybe hundreds different statistics table). Now, regarding the last picture, maybe you are right, it is a little bit too much for one screen but for those that understood what I want to do there, with Advanced Rating Maker is an invaluable tool for sure. And it is not finished
  3. The Advanced Rating Maker has now the possibility to test your selections against past results. As an example. I set up a rating as follows: For the home team: 1. The percent of won games in the last 10 games at home - 70% 2. The numbers of goals scored/game in the last 10 games at home - 30% For the away team: 1. The percent of lost games in the last 10 games at home - 70% 2. The numbers of goals received/game in the last 10 games at home - 30% I selected on the right side only Premier League games, today then clicked CALCULATE (Please note that now is possible to export the resulted table by clicking EXPORT button) At this moment the bottom butons are not activated but if you select a game (I selected HULL - WATFORD) the bottom buttons are activated. The values for selected game are 45 vs 69 Please note that greater number does not mean better. It is just a number and in this case it is worst if it is bigger actually. After I select the interval +/- 5 points and "This season" clicked CALCULATE. Please note that the system will calculate only the games where the home teams have the values between 40-50 and the away teams have the values between 64-74. In the bottom grid will be presented all the games that met the conditions. Under the grid are presented the possible results. In this case home teams won 14 games out of 15 with a very good profit. Please try this new powerful feature and report any error or unexpected result.
  4. Finnaly, few importants steps forward on Advanced Rating System. I found extremely hard to create this tool. Maybe this is the reason I did not find any similar program over the net. For example we can create a simple rating system based on percent of games won this season at home versus percent of games lost this season away. This is very simple but we mat think to combine this with the goals scored, games over, under....etc. This new tool will allow us to create rating systems based on maximum 5 values. If we use more than one value we must set the "weight" of each value. For example 1. The percent of games won at home last season - 75% 2. The goals scored/game this season - 25% All values must be in the interval 0-100 so if we have "goals scored" the resulted value must be translated to 0-100. With the last 2 buttons we can do that by selecting the source interval to be translated to 0-100 For example, if we used "goals scored/game" will result something like 1.34 or 0.95 or 2.00...etc so will set the minimum value to 0 and maximum value to 4. The next step is to create a back-testing system. I will finish it next weeks. Seems to be complicated but it is not actually . I will respond to any question you may have. It would be excelent to report bugs and/or to make suggestions. I will implement them if it is possible
  5. It is possible now to see the results in the UPCOMING section not only for Half Time, Second Time or Full Time but also between selected minutes! This may be extremely useful if you search for games where at least one team used to score very quickly, or maybe just after the period, or whatever. For example, in the example bellow I selected My leagues, goals scored for the home teams, goals received for the away teams - After all I selected to calculate only for the goals scored (received) in the first 15 minutes. How to read the results. For example Nice - Bordeaux, tonight. We can see that Nice scored 0.533 goals/game in the first 15 minutes (much more than league average - 0.187) since Bordeaux received 0.429 goals/game in the first 15 minutes (much more than league average). May be nothing but also may be something interesting. Anyway, please consider the following limitations of this new powerful feature: 1. The feature is allowed only for the current season (may be available soon for past seasons) 2. As I checked there are 95.5% games this season with correct goal minutes (I work to improve the percent) 3. It is still under testing so please take care...
  6. Hi, sorry for the late response but the free VIP licenses are released in the first days of the month. Just install the software, click the update button then follow the instructions. You will receive the first VIP license for this month. One more remain.
  7. Tough decision to be made indeed, to not bet included. I am very disappointed I lost one of my three favourites – Roma (2 remains Ajax and Anderlecht) At first sight, without any closer information, what to say? Schalke has some problems with only few points over relegation zone and 2 games against 2 “colleagues” just around the EL game against Ajax. Ajax stays OK and has full power activated for the finish anyway just few points behind Feyenoord . If Ajax beat Feyenoord on 2nd April will also beat Shalke. Anderlecht, another team on very good shape against a team that does not feel very well. But here the last word has KikoCy. I will back Anderlecht anyway We can say that Genk and Celta finished the problems in their leagues so all the attention is on CL. A kind of lottery in my opinion so if I will bet I will choose the better price. Genk @6.00 is very good I have no idea about Lyon-Besiktas but the odds 1.53 I do not like. Depends what I will find until middle of April I will take my decision. Anyway 6.50 is huge. Lyon is not a super team at the moment ( au contraire ) and Besiktas is not a small nor easy team …
  8. I noticed increased interest for the ALERTS section so, following a user suggestion, I added few new features. Please note that all these are included in the free version! First of all, this section may be used to see what happened in the games with a big favorite. I had no other choice but the odds to consider who is the favorite. For example if you would like to see what what games ended draw this season (but you may select all database) in Premier League considering the game where the favorites had odds under 1.50. You would have had a profit around 20% (depends on the time when bet ) if you had bet on draw! Also you may see in the picture (you see only the latest games - you have to scrool to see all ) the games that 1. Qualified for the possible upset (draw in this case) - like Chelsea-Swansea, Everton- Sunderland...and the last one Liverpool-Burnley 2. Actually happened - like Manchester - Bournemuth and Manchester - Stoke ... 3. The next games that qualify for possible upsets in the selected conditions like Middlesboro - Manchester on 19.03
  9. Very good approach. Congratulation. Another proof that knowledge closely a team makes the difference. Many years ago I started a project on a smaller forum. Made a team and each guy had in responsibility one team. His mission was to be the shadow of the team. He knew everything about the players, manager...if the keeper had an affair with the manager's wife..absolutely all. Now, when one team appeared on schedule the guy were the "primadona" and give as good info. The idea was that you, as a isolate player do not have the time resources to know too much...but together is something else. On the other hand if the games will be played again tonight I would say the same things and I will play the same :))
  10. I hope I understood your question, so as nobody tried will try myself but please be aware that I am not an expert. You have to continue your search to find out more There is no direct connection between line and o/u odds but they are "brothers" because has the same parents : the correct score odds and of course the same grand-fathers : the probabilities to score 0,1,2,...9 goals for each team. In my opinion, this way, all the odds has to be consistent so the players can not have advantages from choosing two different type of markets with sure win. On the other hand anytime the odds for draw are very low (high probability - at least the majority think that) the better choice in my opinion should be under (of course after further investigations). Why? Asumning that the game will be draw, in the under zone we have 2 draws 0-0,1-0,0-1,2-0,0-2,1-1 and 6 total scores. (33%) since in the over zone we have maybe only 2-2,3-3 ? between much more scores. Of course, probably the odds are also low for under but, as I said, further study is need
  11. Of course there I meant -1.5 Manchester as results from my comment not +1.5 Manchester I almost totally agree with you. We have to find values. Of course you are much more closer to United and have info but I can not imagine that a team like MU can not handle 2 games within 4 days (one game against Rostov) without thinking to win both of them. I really believe that we can speak about distances and pitch maybe for la League 2 teams not for one of the most powerfull team in the world with hundrets of milions players. Of course maybe will see a poor game by MU but the qualitty is very clear in their favor. My very little experience tells me that the big teams has no time to postopne problems. If they have 90 minutes to decide the 2 legs they will not waste the time. As you said they have other problems to fix next. As I said I do not exclude surprises but my final decision is AH(-1.5) Manchester @ 3.35 and correct score 0-2 @ 7.50
  12. Just few words about Rostov – United because as I see, the games becomes very interesting to follow. The current tendency is to bet against United. The field is on very bad condition, the motivation or the home team is very high, some missing players on United side, last few very good results on the national league..etc.. It seems to me that with intention or not (some guys maybe want to buy at better price J), the price for United win is becoming very good. Now is around 1.85. It is extremely good in my opinion. It is a huge value difference between teams against Rostov. Of course there may be big surprises (see Bayern) but at this level is something else. Ok, Rostov had some good results lately but if we look closely to the last 5 games table we notice that won easily against very week teams but failed to win and even failed to score against 3 medium teams, with only 7 (seven) shots on goal in these 3 games. Hard to think will score against Manchester United. Finally, I really believe that the last thing Manchester needs at this moment is to think to the second leg with Rostov. Will force the victory, maybe a comfortable one to return to Premier problems they have. Yesterday I did not like 1.65 but today I like 1.85. In my opinion the odds will be a little more bigger but will fall in the afternoon. I will wait a little bit. More than that, I will try -1.5 Manchester with odds over 3.30 Of course - just my thoughts. Everybody has to make his own assessment.
  13. I studied for many years the rating problem for international games and I found out, like you said, that is extremely difficult to compare based on some rating teams from different leagues. Actually it is not difficult but the results are poor. First of all, if you use the same method to calculate ELO for each league then comparing one team from Spain with one team from Austria is wrong. As soon as for each league the sum is zero for all ELO ratings then the first team in Austria league may have bigger rating than Barcelona. The solution would be to further apply some correction based the league the teams come from but , in this case, the next question is how to find these corrections? It is very complicated. Another problem, as you noted earlier, is different motivation that will affect anyway the ELO rating. As I noticed is that the big teams are not very motivated when play in EL (as they lost contact with CL, their initial goal) and now are focused on domestic championship. The same situation when speaking about small teams because probably they have already reached more than initial goal and their best players are already under pressure because are probably hunted by the bigger teams (Rostov, Nicosia…). On this stage I would bet, as motivated teams, on 2nd echelon teams. (Anderlecht, Ajax, Roma….)But this may be a long discussion and it is not the moment now. Another problem is that the European Cups are almost all or nothing games. The teams have not time to fix the results, maybe just 1-2 games not a whole season like on the domestic league so they are forced to play (at least to try ) at full strength regardless their ELO coefficient that shows the relative value of the team over the other teams on the same league. All that count will be their motivation and their absolute strength. Have to read a lot to see what happens inside every team…. So, giving these problems I renounced to ELO (or other ratings systems) for international games. Of course maybe some solutions may exists but they are over my resources… Finally, I found that the best method to get something (or at least to lose the minimum possible) from International games is to read all you find about the teams involved, to find their motivation ..all classic stuff. Then check the odds. As you said, some teams are over evaluated , not by the bookies but by the other players that did not handle correct the game. Of course the bookies will be ready any moment to offer a higher price if there are high demands for a result. (Manchester) Sorry for the long message, I was afraid to write but on my thread only, because „language barrier” but I got some courage now.
  14. Icongene, install the software click the UPDATE button then follow the instructions. I will release you the last free VIP license for this Month.
  15. Two small improvements based on user suggestions but with great effect: 1. There were few requests to allow user to chose different number of games not only 5 or 10. It is possible now to select 3-25 games back. Please be aware that the number of games are not taken from previous season. For example if you select last 12 games but the team played only 5 games current season then 5 games will be calculated. 2. Finally, in the RATING SYSTEM I added the possibility to select (as source for the goal percent ) how many seasons you want. Now you can play with it to see what settings are better on long term.