giraldi

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giraldi last won the day on March 9 2017

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About giraldi

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 05/13/68

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  1. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Hi Matthlock First of all thank you for using, or trying to use, the software. You pointed two weak points of the program also. 1. It is too complex at first sight ,but it is stated that is created for experienced users 2. Has not a complete help system. You may find few tutorials and a help file also on my site though. If you do not have the patience to see all the features presented here over the years, you may find on my forum a little bit better structured all the "new features". Regarding your question: As you noticed, the software has a lot of features. Maybe too many. What I noticed over the years is that everyone has his own system/ideas and of course it is the best invented ever and will be a gold mine in short time. Of course almost all gold mines are something else but we start again with other system, of course much more "intelligent". I just wanted to offer the tools to find and build systems for everyone. The systems can be created faster, have some AI behind, can be tested ..etc. That will not guarantee that will be good systems but at least the cycle is much more faster. Of course with some tools, let say brushes, you may create a masterpiece or few lines just like me. a. RATING - this system was created with the first version of the software. It is based on ELO points but takes into account the recent form also, calculated based a special formula. As you see on the left part it allows you to set how much is ELO and how much is form in the final result. The program allows you to see what happened last years with the same settings (odds, probabilities...etc). The main problem is that if you change the default settings, it will take some minutes to recalculate, but sometimes may worth. b. RATING M - this is my new favourite. Has two parts. "Based on goals scored" and "Advanced Rating Maker". First one is based, of course, on goals scored by similar teams (the same ELO coeff) on the last few seasons. The program will show you what was the percent of each number of goals 0,1,2,3,4 for each team. Based on that, we can calculate all the odds (on the right side) and compare them with the odds offered. The idea was to offer the possibility to adjust those percents to be closer to "real life". For example if home team has not 3 offensive players will go to adjust (make it smaller) the percents for 2,3,4,,,goals and maybe to increase the percents for 0 and 1 goal. The same way if we know that will a rainy day or heavy pitch ....will increase 0, 1 ..etc...Will result other probabilities maybe closer to reality. This will offer us a better chance to predict the result. Advanced Rating Maker will create for you a system based on 5 elements, as you wish. For example will give you a score for home team considering "Home win percent","Goals scored at home","Ball possesion home+away"...etc. The same for away team (other elements or the same). Finally will have two values for home and away teams that you can compare based what happened in the past with the same values and the same elements. c. RATING -V is the rating system based on goals scored actually but here you may see the probabilities for all games in a given period (not only one game), filter them ...etc then you can pass the selected game to "rating based on goals scored" for deeper analise. Of course it is not possible to explain all here but I will try to give details as much as possible. There are also some vIdeo-tutorials about the rating systems. You may find them on this thread or on my site. If you have other problems to clarify, just ask here.
  2. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    I added more options in TABLES/CHARTS section. You can now to see charts about ELO coefficient, shots, shots on target, corners and ball possesion for all games, home games or away games. For example, see below picture, I selected shots on target at home for 3 teams.
  3. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    I hope will like the new changes I made in UPCOMING. It is a huge step forward in my opinion. 1. I added 4 new options on the right side control panel: shots, shots on target, ball possesion and corners. It is for sure very useful to know those values for the last few games...in order to appreciate their tendency. 2. I addedd the possibility to see very fast the form of the teams selected. Just click "Form" button and will be presented ELO evolution for the current season. It is a very important to know what direction the value of the team is going. Of course, as usual, if you have some opinions, suggestions ... please let me know I must move "Head to head" button from upper right corner to bottom. I do not think will be a big problem.
  4. Lets explain Dixon and Coles

    Interesting, please allow me to jump in First of all, I must say I have the same position as Froment. Statistics is the backbone of the entire betting world but unfortuntelly it is not enough for us to win on long periods. You can not win against statistics using ...statistics. Bookies use statistics - how many players, in percents, will back, for a game like Real - Vigo, 1,x,2,...etc in order to offer the "correct odds" for they? They will look back on their registers for this info. This means statistics. Players use statistics - 95% of the palyers, including me, never have been closer than 1000 km to Madrid. Most of us knows nothing about 90% of the Madrid players.Their life, their interests, their problems. We just look at the table from time to time. Real won,used to at least, over 95% of the games at home and have players that worth 1 billion. It seems a very good reason to win again ...... This is based on pure statistics only. Like Froment said, this is not enough because everyoane see the same picture. It is like a running contest where all runners are holding hands. We just must have some info to decide if the odds provided are valuable or not. Here may be a long discussion and it is not the current subject. Regarding the question " if it's impossible to make a profit from betting from statistics alone ,what's the purpose of using statistics at all ? Why not just use the other factors ? " , my answer would be because it is the base of everything else. Let-s say you have to find the correct probability for Real to win the game. First of all we have to look at tables (statistics) to make an aproximation (all begginers do that so no advantage here) then to "fine tune" the results based on other information: good players status, mood..etc, refree, pitch...etc After you process these info and apply them over plane statistics will know if the odds offered are good to play or not. If you use just information you will not be able to answer to question: Why 1.23 is good to play and 1.15 not?
  5. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Following the last post, I created a video to show how to cascade filters. This tutorial shows you how to use more than one filter, for example to see all the games where both teams had this season more than 55% of the games over 2.5 goals and, more than that, in the last five games scored an average 1.25 goals/game. Using this procedure it is possible to create multiple filters, based on your own strategy.
  6. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    I worked few nights on this, it seems not a big deal but I think it is one of the bigger improvements in the last years. It is possible now to cascade filters in the UPCOMING section! What it is about: For example I calculate the over 2.5 values for the home/away teams as usual. I selected on the bottom right to see only the games where both teams have over 55% percent. We have the result here: But let-s say we are interested to see what teams in the resulted table scored at least 1 goal in the last 5 games. Not possible so far, until another REFRESH with the new parameters. To not say that we had to see all today's games again. Now, by selecting the button just above the REFRESH button the next parameters will consider only the games already selected. Like in the picture, I selected last 5 season, goals scored. This way, we can create complex filters based on more than one condition.
  7. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    It is not a new feature but it has a completely new look and it is a lot faster. As you know this section may be use on live betting because allows to see what happens in the past considering goals scored between similar teams . The step is 5 minutes. Just have to select the teams, the ELO interval to consider, the current minute and score. The table is now on top and it is much bigger so can be seen almost entire data on the screen. The old graph may be seen on the page 2 on the bottom. The other improvement is that is faster now when switch between leagues. It takes now no more than 30-40 seconds (there must be calculated too many games to be faster) - depends on league and PC's performances. When you are inside league and just change the teams is even faster, just 3-4 seconds. Of course I am open to discussion maybe will do that even better.
  8. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Few, let-s say, minor improvements (but very useful), based on users suggestions: 1. It is possible now to see the league table considering only the games between 2 rounds, let-s say 20-22 like in the picture. 2. Better visibility and a lot of new filters in the UPSETS section. I remember you this section allows to see, based on the filters you set, when the upsets happened and what are the next games that meet the conditions. For example is possible now to see upsets where home teams not won with odds less than 1.50 and setting extra filters for rounds, over or under 2.5 odds.
  9. You may calculate the probabilities for Asian Handicap 0:0,0:1/4,0:1/2 if you know the probabilities for Home (Ph), Draw (Pd), Away (Pa) Here we have a good approximation for Ph, Pd, Pa if we know the odds for Home, Draw, Away. You may read one of the Pinnacle article to see how. Then use the formulas: 1. For 0:0 The probability to win the home win bet is home win probability The probability to win the away win bet is away win probability The draw probability doesnt matter here OddsHome=(1-Pd)/Ph OddsAway=(1-Pd)/Pa 2. For 0:0,5 The probability to win the home win bet is home win probability The probability to win the away win bet is away win probability+draw probability (or 1-home win probability) OddsHome=(1-Pd)/Ph OddsAway=(1-Pd)/(1-Ph) 3. For 0:0,25 It is a little bit more complicated because we have 2 bets here. I will present now only the results but I will try to find the article to see how they were calculated Home Odds = (1 – Pd/ 2) / Ph Away Odds = (1 – Pd / 2) / (Pa + Pd / 2) The problems appear for 0:0,75, 0:1,25;0:1,5 …and so on … because we must know the probabilities for home team (away team) to win with exactly 1 goal difference, 2 goals difference…and so on I think it is not possible to calculate these probabilities starting with the odds for home, draw, away. If someone found out how to do that please write here.
  10. Ligue 1 & 2 Predictions > Dec 15th - 18th

    Rennes - PSG. I do not explain exactly why but I was attracted by this game. I like to back underdog home teams maybe. over 2.31 for AH(+1.5) it looks to me a good bet. Of course the teams differences are big but we have to take into account the odds and also the fact that, except against the last 2 teams in the leagues PSG won only 50% away and rarely with more than 1 goal difference. Last 2 months Rennes did not lost, except against Strasbourg (1-2). (PSG, very interesting, exactly the same). Poor last game away against Metz but maybe they just prepared games against PSG Anyway, I think that PSG will not have an easy game today and probably will not win at more than 1 goal. Actually with 1-0 they are already 9 points ahead in the league......
  11. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Thank you Alekos, I am glad you like the software. I would be more than happy to receive any opinion, especially bad one. Will help me a lot to improve. Speaking about improvements, I managed to finish (let-s say 99%) of the new Bets Tracking tool. I, personally, like it very much. It is very fast and allows you a lot of filters based on accounts, leagues, teams, odds, markets...etc. I added the second screen (tab) to see all stats for each account/market/league or just for combination of them. It is too much to explain. I created a video tutorial that you may see here:
  12. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    One of my friend asked me to explain with a little bit more details how works the rating based on goals scored. Let-s try: Based on the parameters you selected (ELO interval, the seasons back...etc), the system gives you the probabilities for any number of goals. 0,1,2,3,4.... Based on these probabilities the system calculates the probabilities for any market. You have to compare the system probabilities with the odds offered. Finally the system highlights the odds with value. Like the following example: Based on the last 5 seasons, the system gives the goals probabilities then consider that Away and over 2.5 have value. Yes, this is posted after the game (the result was 2-4) but the screen-shot was taken before the game with many days - please note there are no odds yet for many markets Let-s notice also how close are the odds calculated by system to bookie odds. Ok, but the probabilities are calculated based on historical results. My intention was to offer a tool to adjust the probabilities based on late events. For example we just found that the goalkeeper or centre-left defender has an affair with the centre right defender girlfriend and all have an affair with the manager girl. This, for sure will make their defence weaker..... Or we just learned that will be a heavy rain at the time of game. This for sure will affect attacks of the both teams. And so on. As I said, I created some tools - take a look to those buttons: "Home team attack", "Home team defence".... You can increase or decrease attack or defence. For example in the first example (with girlfriend) will decrease the defence with 10% lets say. Will notice that the probabilities will adjust accordingly and probably will increase the probabilities for 1,2,3, goals but will decrease the probabilities for 0 goals. I offered also the possibility to save some common situations. See the picture: Important striker is missing, heavy rain...etc. By selecting this option, automatically all the rules will change based on what you saved - please see the following picture. For example if you select "Bad weather conditions", the home attack will be decreased by 5%, away team attack with 10% ...This is just an example. You can set what you want here. Ok, let-s return to the main screen. I said that you can increase/decrease the attack/defence strength. But if we increase the attack with 10% how will affect this the probabilities to be scored 0,1,2,3,,,goals? Even here I gave the power to final user to decide. For example, in the following picture I set how will be affected the probabilities to score 0,1,2,3..goals for each (+) or (-) 5% move of the attack strength. As you can see I set as follows: the probability to be scored 0 goals will be decreased by 3% but will be increased the probabilities for 1 goal (2%) and 2 goals (1%). Also, if the attack strength will be decreased by 5% the probability to be scored 0 goals will be increased by 3% but will bede creased the probabilities for 1 goal (2%) and 2 goals (1%). This is just an example. You should try your own strategies here. It is very important to keep a zero sum (please note the green zone). Now I hope it is more clear what happens when you select "Heavy rain" for example. The attack/defence are affected with some percent then the probabilities for goals are affected based on the below screen.
  13. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Few important steps forward. I remember that this new tool will be free for one account and the basic features! Will be enough to track your bets better and faster than an EXCEL file! If you have options on EXCEL file that this tool does not have yet will add it for sure! 1. Added BACKUP and RESTORE buttons. Please take care and do not save the backup file on the program folder! At this moment, the system backup all bets and restore by overwriting the bets file! On the next versions will be possible to have more options... 2. Integrated more with UPCOMING. If you select My Bets option on the switch under table the column "My Games" will change to "My Bets" and will see all the bets you have already placed, if any. Of course, the errors are possible on this stage. Please report any problem!
  14. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Today I present you few more steps I made on Bets Tracking add-on: Possible now to add bets (only from this form, upcoming and rating will follow) and delete bets from database. I added few random games to play with them. The color code I think is obvious: green for full won, light green for half won, light red for half lost, red for full lost. Yellow for push.And of course white for pending bets. I like it very much and especially that is very fast :)) . Just to play with filters on the left side......will like it for sure. I think will be a great tool and will replace all those XLS sheets finally.....will add everything an XLS sheet can do and will have a lot more Please work and play with it until you will receive an error. Then send it to me I am open to any suggestion also.
  15. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Just made a new video-tutorial for the UPSETS section. This tool allows you to find past upsets considering league and the odds. Working for this new tutorial I found some interesting stats. For example, backing underdog with odds over 5.00 would have been profitable in Premier League this season. Also laying where the favourite was under 1.50. But laying under 1.20 was bad - would have lost everything Here is the tutorial. By the way, for November - 3 VIP licenses