giraldi

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About giraldi

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 05/13/68

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  1. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Finally I added other 2 "my leagues" sets in order to give the possibility to test your different strategies on different sets of leagues more efficient. It is easy to use, just select the set you need and all the actions will be over the set selected. Add, remove...clear all leagues.  Of course in UPCOMING you have to select "My leagues 1",   2 or 3.
  2. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Following a  few VIP users suggestion I added the possibility to select double chance and gg/ng options for "my games" feature. I remember you that this feature allows you to save some info about your future betting intentions, along with commentaries, in order to see them later and to make your final decision. It is also possible to filter and to see only "my games" in the main table in order to focus better over them. In order to access it just right-click on the selected game. 
  3. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Please download the software from my signature, install it, click the UPDATE button then follow the instructions.  
  4. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    New "small" improvement in Rating Maker.   I added the Half Time goals scored percent so it is possible now to play with Half Time markets. Unfortunately I do not have the odds for Half Time yet.
  5. I really do not understand and I do not know any mathematically correct method to calculate total goals from 1,x,2 and over/under 2/5 My opinion is that this is impossible. All the probabilities you see there are calculated based on home/away goals scored probabilities. These probabilities can be calculated based on Poisson distribution starting with an average number of goals scored over a given period or may be the real percent of goals scored over the a given period (like I did in my RATING MAKER) So, do not understand wrong: 1.   "As you can see in the "expected goal calculator", from 1x2 and over/under 2.5 you can calculate (via Poisson distribution) Total Goals e correct score." This is FALSE.  2.  "Then I have used another spreadsheet (I attach below "Poisson2") starting from Home/Away Expected goals I have calculated many other markets and it works fine!" This is correct way 3. "But with the second one I need to know reverse formula ( from 1x2 and over/under to total goals expected).Can you help me?" I think nobody can help you because it is impossible.   4. "how can I calculate First half total goals ?" No other possibility than do in the same way  but only for the goals scored in the first half.  As I said before you can calculate an average number over a given period then apply POISSON or effectively count how many 0, 1,2,3,4, goals were scored, calculate percent,  than calculate all markets                 
  6. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Hi, Yes, it is true, just install the software, click the UPDATE button and follow the instructions provided there.  For this month, one more free VIP license. Just a reminder tough - my only request for free VIP  was to have a feedback, . within 3 months, here or directly to my email - it is good or not, what to improve...etc...just few phrases. This helps me a lot for future development.    
  7. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    A new and very important step forward for my new project. I added the possibility to manage events. What it is about, let-s make a short history: 1.  All the initial goals percents are calculated based previous similar games in the past 5 years. Similar games means games where home and away teams had similar ELO ratings (actually inside a range you can set - for example +/- 25 points...etc) 2.   Now, the percents may be affected by different events and you have 2 possibilities:      a. adjust manually the attack or defence strength for both team, depending on your information about the game      b. adjust automatically the attack or defence strength based on some predefined events, like "bad weather conditions" or "important  home team defender is missing"              Any modification of attack or defence strength will lead to the change of percents for the goals based what you set for +5% variation. In order to preset what happen when the attack or defence changes with 5% click the first "Manage" button. At this moment there are not set any changes so any change over attack or defence has no effect. You have to do this by clicking "Manage" button. By the way, please see how close are probabilities calculated to offered odds. The events are for testing purposes. I do not know if it there was havy rain. In order to apply point b. you have to predefine your events. Clck the second button "Manage" and you can do that. I added for testing purposes few events.
  8. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Few steps forward last night ...:) 1. I improved a little bit manage procedure for adjust attack/defense strength    2. Added correct score percents. 3. Added the possibility to show/hide the markets in order to have a better look of markets where are you interested in More to come 1. Added the Asian Handicap market percents 2. Manage how different events affect the goals scored percents. Again, if you have any idea please write here. I do not promise I will implement but maybe will discuss here  
  9. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Sure, just follow the instructions and send me your user code.
  10. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Yes, still 2 free VIP licenses for November and one is yours. Just follow the instructions, download and install the software and send me your user code using the form on my CONTACT web page.  
  11. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Here will try to present my new project. It is far to be finished, but as most of you already know the main software was build based on users suggestions and more than 75% of the features were added after you convinced me that would be a good idea and very useful for users. Now it is about the new Rating Maker Software. This is intended to allow you to create and test your own rating system. I am not very sue will be possible to create all the bricks and tools you will need but the idea is to be close on you and if you will try to create a new rating system and will not find something to add there I will create it. For example, I do not know, you think that is a sound strategy to consider the last 5 games goals home 60 % , the head to head meetings -10% and other ingredients the rest ...will create this, eventually test against past results to make an idea...etc. This will not be easy to create but with your help I am sure will create it.  Now, in the picture, as preview, is the first system I created (will be finished soon). It will be based on football essence : the goal Based on goals probabilities will be calculated all the probabilities for all markets. Of course the problem is how will find the goals probabilities. By testing different scenarios. I will start considering last 5  seasons goals between similar teams (as ELO and/or form) then the probabilities will be adjusted manually (based on our experience) or automatically considering different situations.  - an important player is missing, bad weather conditions,...etc.. All these will affect attack or defense strength with few percents then will affect goals probabilities. Of course the attack pr defense strength will be adjusted manually if you want and you are sure you know what you are doing .:) For example if 1 important striker is missing on the home team and the weather conditions are bed will try to go down the probabilities for 1,2,3,..goals (with different percents) but to increase the probability for 0 goals. .... This is the main idea and below is a preview.    
  12. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    A new small but useful feature requested by a VIP user When select to see STATISTICS in the TABLES section you may see now highlighted "Average team" values for goals scored, received, correct score, HT/FT....and more.
  13. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    One VIP user asked me few days ago to do something in order to make easier the UPCOMING export and to help those will use the results for their own projects. It is possible now,  when you click EXPORT button, to select (then sort) what columns would you want to export and appear in your EXCEL files. Also you can set the column's order in the exported file. It is just Beta version so please be aware that there are possible errors on unexpected results.  Please report any bug and I will try to correct as soon as possible.
  14. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Following few users requests I added two small features that I hope will prove to be useful: 1. Backup & Restore This can be used after a new installation to restore your previous configuration. In order to Backup or Restore your files go to SETTINGS then BACKUP & RESTORE. This will save your settings, my games, my teams, alerts, ...I hope I did not miss anything good to save. Of course if you will notice some bugs or have some new ideas please let me know     2. I don-t want leagues. Some users asked for the option to eliminate some league from database. This may be good as soon as the software will be a little bit faster if the database is smaller. How it works: go to SETTINGS then MY LEAGUES  and select the leagues you do not want to appear in any table or calculation. Please be aware: a. The changes take effect just after the software restart b. The deleted leagues can be restored only if you eliminate them from list then update the database with the latest version. (this may happen once a day, every morning)  
  15. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    A "little bit" improvement for the last feature presented.   In the average columns it is possible now to select what you want to see 1. The percent over/under average value or 2. The average value itself.   Just select it from SETTINGS, like in the picture. Also, please note the observations 1,2 and 3. There are some limitation in using this features when select last 5 or last 10 games.