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About giraldi

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 05/13/68

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  1. Europa League > Apr 13th

    Tough decision to be made indeed, to not bet included. I am very disappointed I lost one of my three favourites – Roma (2 remains Ajax and Anderlecht)   At first sight, without any closer  information, what to say?            Schalke has some problems with only few points over relegation zone and 2 games against 2 “colleagues”  just around the EL game against Ajax. Ajax stays OK and has full power activated for the finish anyway just few points behind Feyenoord . If Ajax beat Feyenoord on 2nd April will also beat Shalke.         Anderlecht, another team on very good shape against a team that does not feel very well. But here the last word has KikoCy.  I will back Anderlecht anyway               We can say that Genk and Celta finished the problems in their leagues so all the attention is on CL.  A kind of  lottery in my opinion so if I will bet I will choose the better price.  Genk @6.00 is very good              I have no idea about Lyon-Besiktas but the odds 1.53  I do not like. Depends what I will find until middle of April I will  take my decision. Anyway 6.50 is huge. Lyon is not a super team at the moment  ( au contraire ) and  Besiktas is not a small nor easy team …
  2. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    I noticed  increased interest for the ALERTS section so, following a user suggestion, I added few new features. Please note that all these are included in the free version! First of all, this section may be used to see what happened in the games with a big favorite. I had no other choice but the odds to consider who is the favorite. For example if you would like to see what what games ended draw this season (but you may select all database) in Premier League considering the game where the favorites had odds under 1.50.  You would have had a profit around 20% (depends on the time when bet ) if you had bet on draw! Also you may see in the picture (you see only the latest games - you have to scrool to see all ) the games that 1. Qualified for the possible upset (draw in this case) - like Chelsea-Swansea, Everton- Sunderland...and the last one Liverpool-Burnley 2. Actually happened - like Manchester - Bournemuth and Manchester  - Stoke ... 3. The next games that qualify for possible upsets in the selected conditions like Middlesboro - Manchester on 19.03
  3. Europa League > Mar 9th

    Very good approach. Congratulation. Another proof that knowledge closely a team makes the difference. Many years ago I started a project on a smaller forum. Made a team and each guy had in responsibility one team. His mission was to be the shadow of the team. He knew everything about the players, manager...if the keeper had an affair with the manager's wife..absolutely all. Now, when one team appeared on schedule the guy were the "primadona" and give as good info.  The idea was that you, as a isolate player do not have the time resources to know too much...but together is something else.   On the other hand if the games will be played again tonight I would say  the same things and I will play the same :))    
  4. betting Q

    I hope I understood your question, so as nobody tried will try myself but please be aware that I am not an expert. You have to continue your search to find out more There is no direct connection between line and o/u odds but they are "brothers"   because has the same parents : the correct score odds and of course the same grand-fathers : the probabilities to score 0,1,2,...9 goals for each team. In my opinion, this way,  all the odds has to be consistent so the players can not have advantages from choosing two different type of markets with sure win.  On the other hand anytime the odds for draw are very low (high probability - at least the majority think that) the better choice  in my opinion should be under (of course after further investigations). Why?  Asumning that the game will be draw, in the under zone we have 2 draws  0-0,1-0,0-1,2-0,0-2,1-1 and 6 total scores. (33%) since in the over zone we have maybe only 2-2,3-3 ? between much more scores. Of course, probably the odds are also low for under but, as I said, further study is need
  5. Europa League > Mar 9th

    I almost totally agree with you. We have to find values. Of course you are much more closer to United and have info but I can not imagine that a team like MU can not handle 2 games within 4 days (one game against Rostov) without thinking to win both of them. I really believe that we can speak about distances and pitch maybe for la League 2 teams not for one of the most  powerfull team in the world with hundrets of milions players. Of course maybe will see a poor game by MU but the qualitty is very clear in their favor.  My very little experience tells me that the big teams has no time to postopne problems. If they have 90 minutes to decide the 2 legs they will not waste the time. As you said they have other problems to fix next. As I said I do not exclude surprises but my final decision is AH(-1.5) Manchester @ 3.35  and correct score 0-2 @ 7.50      
  6. Europa League > Mar 9th

    Just few words about Rostov – United because as I see, the games becomes very interesting to follow.   The current tendency is to bet against United. The field is on very bad condition, the motivation or the home team is very high, some missing players on United side, last few very good results on the national league..etc..   It seems to me that with intention or not (some guys maybe want to buy at better price J), the price for United win is becoming very good. Now is around 1.85. It is extremely good in my opinion.     It is a huge value difference between teams against Rostov. Of course there may be big surprises (see Bayern) but at this level is something else.     Ok, Rostov had some good results lately but if we look closely to the last 5 games table we notice that won easily against very week teams but failed to win and even failed to score against 3 medium teams, with only 7 (seven) shots on goal in these 3 games.  Hard to think will score against Manchester United. Finally, I really believe that the last thing Manchester needs at this moment is to think to the second leg with Rostov.  Will force the victory,  maybe a comfortable one to return to Premier problems they have.     Yesterday I did not like 1.65 but today I like 1.85. In my opinion the odds will be a little more bigger but will fall in the afternoon.  I will wait a little bit.   More than that, I will try   -1.5 Manchester with odds over 3.30     Of course - just my thoughts.  Everybody has to make his own assessment.             
  7. Europa League > Mar 9th

    I studied for many years the rating problem for international games and I found out, like you said, that is extremely difficult to compare based on some rating teams from different leagues. Actually it is not difficult but the results are poor. First of all, if you use the same method to calculate ELO for each league then comparing one team from Spain with one team from Austria is wrong.  As soon as for each league the sum is zero for all ELO ratings then the first team in Austria league may have bigger rating than Barcelona. The solution would be to further apply some correction based the league the teams come from but , in this case, the next question is how to find these corrections? It is very complicated.   Another problem, as you noted earlier, is different motivation that will affect anyway the ELO rating. As I noticed is that the big teams are not very motivated when play in EL (as they lost contact with CL, their initial goal) and now are focused on domestic championship. The same situation when speaking about small teams because probably they have already reached more than initial goal and  their best  players are already under pressure because are probably  hunted by the bigger teams (Rostov, Nicosia…).  On this stage I would bet, as motivated teams, on 2nd echelon teams. (Anderlecht, Ajax, Roma….)But this may be a long discussion and it is not the moment now. Another problem is that the European Cups are almost all or nothing games. The teams have not time to fix the results, maybe just 1-2 games not a whole season like on the domestic league so they are forced to play (at least to try ) at full strength  regardless their ELO coefficient that shows the relative value of the team over the other teams on the same league.  All that count will be their motivation and their absolute strength. Have to read a lot to see what happens inside every team….   So, giving these problems I renounced to ELO (or other ratings systems) for international games. Of course maybe some solutions may exists but they are over my resources…   Finally, I found that the best method to get something (or at least to lose the minimum possible) from International games is to read all you find about the teams involved, to find their motivation ..all classic stuff.  Then check the odds. As you said, some teams are over evaluated , not by the bookies but by the other players that did not handle correct the game.  Of course the bookies will be ready any moment to offer a higher price if there are high demands for a result. (Manchester) Sorry for the long message, I was afraid to write but on my thread only,  because „language barrier” but I got  some courage now.           
  8. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Icongene, install the software click the UPDATE button then follow the instructions.  I will release you the last free VIP license for this Month.  
  9. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Two small improvements based on user suggestions but with great effect: 1. There were few requests to allow user to chose different number of games not only 5 or 10. It is possible now to select 3-25 games back. Please be aware that the number of games are not taken from previous season. For example if you select last 12 games but the team played only 5 games current season then 5 games will be calculated.   2. Finally, in the RATING SYSTEM  I added the possibility to select (as source for the goal percent ) how many seasons you want. Now you can play with it to see what settings are better on long term.
  10. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    No problem Matt, you will take the free VIP license, just follow the instructions. Send me your user code using the form on my Contact web page. It is easier and safer to generate...
  11. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Thank you for your intervention. Every month I release 1  VIP and 1 ADVANCED  license for the registered users. So, please ask for a free license every month, after 1st day of each month.  I just want to avoid some requests for December next years...etc Starting with March,  if there are 2 or more requests on the same day I will release the license to the one with the most posts here. I will wait until 2nd March then I will release the licenses.  I think you are good chances as the most just create account to get the license. The good news is that in March will be 3 VIP licenses because  10 March is the Birthday of my software. It is 6 years old now :))        
  12. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

      Thank you Linus, I do not understand German but I know you appreciate very much my software.   I notice that many of us likes to create rating systems, based on various strategies. For example how many games the home team scored in the last 10 games against how many games the away team scored in the last 10 games. Let-s say 8-7. Based on that, we may think that in the next game there are chances for both teams to score. Of course, if we calculate how many games they received in the same period, let-s say 7-5, our assumption gets weight…and so on. Of course we must consider the price offered…etc. but it is not about this in this post. As you know, I try to meet the user requirements. I would like to create a tool to automate this problem: 1.    Create your own rating values based on different scenarios, both for home and away team; 2.    The final value may be based on up to 5 intermediate values. The intermediate values will be added with different pre-set percent into final value. (will see later in this post) 3.    Save/load  the rating 4.    Apply the rating for the next games 5.    Test the rating against past results.        I feel that this will be a very important feature of my tool so I decided to present what I have done so far in order to give your opinion or to correct me before is too late.      To make it clear: it is not operational (may be in 2 weeks ) but you can play with it (it is free to access) in order to see what it is about. I will continue after I will have some feedback. I put numbers over picture to make possible questions easier. Maybe seems to be complicated  but it is not if you have patience to understand. On short: Select up to 5 conditions for home or away team then set the weight for each of them The final value will be  (w1*v1+w2*v2+w3*v3+w4*v4+w5*v5)/100     Select the league (all leagues, one league or my leagues) and the period (today, next 3,5 days) then click CALCULATE (not operational yet). The calculated final values will appear next to each game. When click on game in the first table – in the second table will see all similar games (with the same rating  values) and the results/profit…etc. Of course will be the possibility to export or save the work.
  13. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Thank you for feedback. Feedback and suggestions were very important on program developing. More than 75% of the program is developed following users suggestions and ideas. Maybe this is why the program looks a little bit too "heavy" and maybe too many features that seem to be useless. Be sure there are users that use them because they suggested the features......  Like the following one: Following a new suggestion I inserted MyTeams and MyLeagues options in the STATISTICS section, like in the picture. Also, I changed the way the STATISTICS section opens. Will open now directly with MyLeagues instead of AllLeagues because the last one is very much time consuming. In the picture I selected MyLeagues, then MyTeams , all games, events on line then I sorted the column UNDER in order to see how many games UNDER 2.5 goals were in the row for the teams selected. Just an example.        
  14. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Yes, I offer every month 1 VIP and 1 Advanced license. So, you have just taken the VIP one.   
  15. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Following some suggestions I added the possibility to see extra data in the Head to Head section. May be useful sometimes to see what happened in the last games or maybe to see the opponents strength in order to understand better the team results.   On the bottom side you may select to see (or not) some extra information next to the team's name. For now, I added 7 extra values to select from.   The value selected is saved in the configuration file so next time you enter in the H2H section your last choice will be displayed. Anyway, please be aware that not all leagues has complete data but major leagues have more than 90% completed for the last few seasons.   and the result: