giraldi

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giraldi last won the day on March 9 2017

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About giraldi

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 05/13/68

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  1. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Few very useful features in Rating V. And please note that few other new features will be added soon. There are so many and I hope will not miss something. 1. The most impotant is that will be few new columns - correct score (you can select on the right side to view or not ) and the places for the both teams. 2. The possibility to highlight the odds wth value between two numbers (not only bigger then .... as before) 3. Absolutely all the controls on the screen can be saved (then load) as default on the lower left corner 4. If you want to fine tune the values, the transfer to RATING M will be done with exactly the same values as in RATING V - season, ELO...ETC. No need to adjust in RATING M again. As you already knw, Rating M allows you to adjust the probabilities for goals scored (considering last moment events) in order to find values.
  2. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    I am sorry for the late response. Just went in a short vacation I do not know if it would help you but my software already can give you a list of games, sorted based on difference between teams places in the table. You can export this list to XLS then you may fit it to your needs. Of course I would help you more if you explain very clear what is your request and if you have patience to wait until next month, after I finish the next season version of the software. For example, in UPCOMING, I selected next 3 days then if you click on the header pointed on the picture below, the table will be sorted in the following order: place home team (ascendent then descendent), place home team at home (ascendent then descendent), difference between home team aand away team, difference between home team at home and away team away. After that, click EXPORT button to select the columns you want to export. I hope it is useful. Again, this is already included in software. If you want more we have to talk.
  3. Hi Giraldi, any chance I can have VIP license for the CGM bet software? Thank you in advance.

    1. giraldi

      giraldi

      Sorry, for the late response. I just went in a short vacation...

      Please write on my thread then send me your user code using the CONTACT form on my web site. I will activate a VIP license for you.

       

       

       

    2. real55555

      real55555

      Cheers Giraldi, hope you had a good time during your vacation.

      Will do that after work, thanks mate.

  4. Germany – Mexico I do not know why but Germany starts on force almost every final tournament. There are rumors that Germany has not a such great team this tournament … and maybe they are right but I think they have the force to beat Mexico. My selection is 9. Germany AH (-1.5) @ 2.33 Pinnacle
  5. I feel a kind of pressure with +93% after the first 5 bets but will try again J Costa Rica – Serbia I really do not understand why Serbia is so big favorite here. Costa Rica has a very decent team and much more important has the great experience of the last WC. Serbia won European group but I did not like the play. The final tournaments (after Yugoslavia ) were very poor with one single victory against Germany (1-0 in 2010) but lost to any other team. My selection is 6. BTTS @2.39 Brazil vs Switzerland Probably Brazil will win but if we take a look in the past, Brazil won every first game not very easy and they played just enough to win, no more. On the other hand Switzerland is an average team that will be more than happy to not lose more than 1 goal. Their strategy on this group does not take into consideration points with Brasil – I am very sure. I tried to play Brazil win with 1 goal difference but did not find this market with Pinnacle, so My selection is 7. Correct score 1-0 @ 5.36 (half a unit) 8. Correct score 2-1 @ 8.12 (half a unit)
  6. 1. Egypt - Uruguay Of course Uruguay has much more experience at WC, a much better team and do not think that will have problems today. The only problem is what to bet because the prices are too high. Finally, my selection is AH -1.5 Uruguay @ 2.67 Pinnacle 2. Morocco - Iran. Probably at this moment Morocco has a better team but considering there is the first game and more experience for Iran at WC... Also I remember 2014 when they received ony one goal after first 2 games with Nigeria and Argentina (91 minute Messi). It is not a easy team at all. My selection is Iran @ 3.92 Pinnacle 3. Portugal - Spain I do not think Morocco or Iran will create problems on the next games so I do not see any reason to force something today. Just thinking about the next opponent Russia or Uruguay...but to early to choose. My selection is Draw @ 3.32 Pinnacle
  7. Both team played extremely weak in my opinion. Too many unforced errors for this level. I think I did not see many times more than 5 passes.in a row. If had not been host nation Russia would have been out in preliminary almost sure. Also, good to have exotic teams there but when I think that Italy, Holland...etc are home...... Finally, of course I am very happy with +20% after the first day.
  8. Of course Russia to win has the better probability and also under 2.5 seems to be very attractive but I will play neither better probability nor something attractive. Probably I am wrong but will see on Grand Total at the end of the tournament. Just imagine what the big pressure is on Russia today. They are playing on the opening game at home and any wrong step is almost fatal because will have to deal with Egypt (nothing to lose with 0 points after probably will lose against Uruguay tomorrow) and Uruguay (probably qualified but interested to meet more convenient opponent next game – hard to say what is better to play against Spain or Portugal ). Hard to see Russia going further… Today I see a game where the Russians will try to score on the first minutes but their defense is week in my opinion and very probably will received the first goal of the World Cup on the counter attack in the first half then I cannot see Russia to win. Maybe other few goals from both sides but, as I mentioned, very complicated opening game for Russia today. Two for today: 1. 1. Saudi Arabia AH+0.5@ 2.93 Pinnacle 2. 2. Considering the WC opening games history, Under 2.5 is a big favorite (very big price to take it) but Over 2.5 @ 2.43 Pinnacle is far better to play today.
  9. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    I received a suggestion and because I think this will help a lot of users I implemented it. What it is about As you know there is a free Poisson calculator where just have to set the expected goals for home/away team. The Poisson calculator is embeded into main program also. If you select in UPCOMING "goals scored" for both teams, see picture no 1, the Poisson button will be activated and allows you to see the Poisson calculator for the selected game, like in the picture no.2 I just added the possibility to export into EXCEL file the Poisson probabilities for all games in the UPCOMING table. For example, in the picture 2, after you select "goals scored" for home/away teams, then set whatever you want for season, last 10 games....home, away...etc if you click on "Poisson export" button will be asked to export all the Poisson values to an EXCEL file, where you may play with it. Will be exported probabilities, for each game, for home and away: home, draw, away, scored 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 goals, over/under 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5 GG, NG, ODD, EVEN and AH 0,1/4,1/2,3/4,1,11/4,11/2,13/4,2 and of course correct score. I am open to discussions in order to improve this feature.
  10. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Thank you Boris. Your problem can not be solved with my software, at this moment because there is a very particular case and never have been approached. There is a zone called "FILTERS" on menu bar. I tried few years ago to add there as many as possible this kind of interogation but the interest was low at that time. Maybe I will try again or I will create a n advanced tool to create complex interogations like yous. I hope you imagine that it is not enough to create exactly your interogation. Probably next time, you or other user will need "when in first half was 0-1" ...etc Later edit. I took a look on filters section. Is not the filter 003 what are you looking for? There was defined under 0.5 on the first half then over 1.5 in total. I think it is the same as you ask for.
  11. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Hi The best way for me or for you? :)) Download and install the software, click UPDATE button and follow the instructions provided there.
  12. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    One of the best friends of the project asked me if it is possible to create alerts for half time results. Now it is possible If you do not know what are "alerts", if you go to SETTINGS then ALERTS, the program allows you to set filters that wil appear in "alerts" column in UPCOMING table. As an very simple example, please take a look atpictures below: I created an alert to see the games where home team scored before half time on the last game at home and away team not scored before half time on the last game away. See the results on the second picture. This is very simple and maybe useless but just wanted to give an example. There are many many other possibilities: won, draw, lost, scored, received,over, under... home, away, home+away.... Also, if the alert is for full time results there will be more filters including odds. For example teams that won last 3 games at home but to be alerted only if the next game win odds are over 2.20..and so on
  13. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    I am not very sure it is exactly what are you looking for but I just presented few posts ago If select a league on the left tree then click H2H button on menu bar will see something like picture below. You can set now to see the percent of games where home/away teams scored first or scored first then scored again or received goal to be 1-1 ...etc... It is possible to create more filters, for example for the home team I want to see how many games scored first when they had odds under 2.00 It happened on 50% of the games If you have more questions please let me know
  14. ELO ranking using expected goals model

    Yes, from my experience, there are completely other results. May be the same ELO points difference between Manchester City - Chelsea and Stoke - West Brom but the profile of the game will be different also. Considering your example with 1900 - 1750, I will search for all games where home teams had 1900 +/- x and away team had 1750 +/- y where x and y are variable. If set x=50 and y=50 will search for all past games where home team had ELO between 1850 - 1950 and away team had ELO between 1700 and 1800 . Of course there will be a balance between x,y vlues and the accuracy of the results. It is better to have small values for x,y but will result in a small number of past games. You will find the best values for x and y after tests. This is just my point of view. Maybe will be other opinions here.
  15. ELO ranking using expected goals model

    It is interesting your idea to calculate ELO based on expected goals but I am still thinking what would be useful a virtual ELO for? Or maybe I did not understand? Finally you will have an ELO coefficient that will continue rising for good teams (because they are expected to win the game) . I do not know, maybe I am wrong. Regarding second matter, I am not an expert, there are around many guys with much more experience. I just can tell you what I did: I set 2000 points (1700 for second league, 1500 for third league...etc) for each team back in 2005 then applied ELO procedure for every game. Of course the promoted teams will enter with the last ELO in the lower league and relegated teams will go down with their ELO. It seems to me very natural changes when look at ELO graph for the last 5 years for any team Of course any ELO rating has a "calibration" time (I think it is about 15-20 games) so if you apply every season a new ELO (even based on the last year table) I do not think it is a good idea. There will be a calibration time of course each season because of teams changes but this is no more than few games usually.