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About giraldi

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 05/13/68

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  1. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Thank you for your intervention. Every month I release 1  VIP and 1 ADVANCED  license for the registered users. So, please ask for a free license every month, after 1st day of each month.  I just want to avoid some requests for December next years...etc Starting with March,  if there are 2 or more requests on the same day I will release the license to the one with the most posts here. I will wait until 2nd March then I will release the licenses.  I think you are good chances as the most just create account to get the license. The good news is that in March will be 3 VIP licenses because  10 March is the Birthday of my software. It is 6 years old now :))        
  2. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

      Thank you Linus, I do not understand German but I know you appreciate very much my software.   I notice that many of us likes to create rating systems, based on various strategies. For example how many games the home team scored in the last 10 games against how many games the away team scored in the last 10 games. Let-s say 8-7. Based on that, we may think that in the next game there are chances for both teams to score. Of course, if we calculate how many games they received in the same period, let-s say 7-5, our assumption gets weight…and so on. Of course we must consider the price offered…etc. but it is not about this in this post. As you know, I try to meet the user requirements. I would like to create a tool to automate this problem: 1.    Create your own rating values based on different scenarios, both for home and away team; 2.    The final value may be based on up to 5 intermediate values. The intermediate values will be added with different pre-set percent into final value. (will see later in this post) 3.    Save/load  the rating 4.    Apply the rating for the next games 5.    Test the rating against past results.        I feel that this will be a very important feature of my tool so I decided to present what I have done so far in order to give your opinion or to correct me before is too late.      To make it clear: it is not operational (may be in 2 weeks ) but you can play with it (it is free to access) in order to see what it is about. I will continue after I will have some feedback. I put numbers over picture to make possible questions easier. Maybe seems to be complicated  but it is not if you have patience to understand. On short: Select up to 5 conditions for home or away team then set the weight for each of them The final value will be  (w1*v1+w2*v2+w3*v3+w4*v4+w5*v5)/100     Select the league (all leagues, one league or my leagues) and the period (today, next 3,5 days) then click CALCULATE (not operational yet). The calculated final values will appear next to each game. When click on game in the first table – in the second table will see all similar games (with the same rating  values) and the results/profit…etc. Of course will be the possibility to export or save the work.
  3. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Thank you for feedback. Feedback and suggestions were very important on program developing. More than 75% of the program is developed following users suggestions and ideas. Maybe this is why the program looks a little bit too "heavy" and maybe too many features that seem to be useless. Be sure there are users that use them because they suggested the features......  Like the following one: Following a new suggestion I inserted MyTeams and MyLeagues options in the STATISTICS section, like in the picture. Also, I changed the way the STATISTICS section opens. Will open now directly with MyLeagues instead of AllLeagues because the last one is very much time consuming. In the picture I selected MyLeagues, then MyTeams , all games, events on line then I sorted the column UNDER in order to see how many games UNDER 2.5 goals were in the row for the teams selected. Just an example.        
  4. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Yes, I offer every month 1 VIP and 1 Advanced license. So, you have just taken the VIP one.   
  5. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Following some suggestions I added the possibility to see extra data in the Head to Head section. May be useful sometimes to see what happened in the last games or maybe to see the opponents strength in order to understand better the team results.   On the bottom side you may select to see (or not) some extra information next to the team's name. For now, I added 7 extra values to select from.   The value selected is saved in the configuration file so next time you enter in the H2H section your last choice will be displayed. Anyway, please be aware that not all leagues has complete data but major leagues have more than 90% completed for the last few seasons.   and the result:
  6. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Finally I added other 2 "my leagues" sets in order to give the possibility to test your different strategies on different sets of leagues more efficient. It is easy to use, just select the set you need and all the actions will be over the set selected. Add, remove...clear all leagues.  Of course in UPCOMING you have to select "My leagues 1",   2 or 3.
  7. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Following a  few VIP users suggestion I added the possibility to select double chance and gg/ng options for "my games" feature. I remember you that this feature allows you to save some info about your future betting intentions, along with commentaries, in order to see them later and to make your final decision. It is also possible to filter and to see only "my games" in the main table in order to focus better over them. In order to access it just right-click on the selected game. 
  8. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Please download the software from my signature, install it, click the UPDATE button then follow the instructions.  
  9. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    New "small" improvement in Rating Maker.   I added the Half Time goals scored percent so it is possible now to play with Half Time markets. Unfortunately I do not have the odds for Half Time yet.
  10. I really do not understand and I do not know any mathematically correct method to calculate total goals from 1,x,2 and over/under 2/5 My opinion is that this is impossible. All the probabilities you see there are calculated based on home/away goals scored probabilities. These probabilities can be calculated based on Poisson distribution starting with an average number of goals scored over a given period or may be the real percent of goals scored over the a given period (like I did in my RATING MAKER) So, do not understand wrong: 1.   "As you can see in the "expected goal calculator", from 1x2 and over/under 2.5 you can calculate (via Poisson distribution) Total Goals e correct score." This is FALSE.  2.  "Then I have used another spreadsheet (I attach below "Poisson2") starting from Home/Away Expected goals I have calculated many other markets and it works fine!" This is correct way 3. "But with the second one I need to know reverse formula ( from 1x2 and over/under to total goals expected).Can you help me?" I think nobody can help you because it is impossible.   4. "how can I calculate First half total goals ?" No other possibility than do in the same way  but only for the goals scored in the first half.  As I said before you can calculate an average number over a given period then apply POISSON or effectively count how many 0, 1,2,3,4, goals were scored, calculate percent,  than calculate all markets                 
  11. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Hi, Yes, it is true, just install the software, click the UPDATE button and follow the instructions provided there.  For this month, one more free VIP license. Just a reminder tough - my only request for free VIP  was to have a feedback, . within 3 months, here or directly to my email - it is good or not, what to improve...etc...just few phrases. This helps me a lot for future development.    
  12. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    A new and very important step forward for my new project. I added the possibility to manage events. What it is about, let-s make a short history: 1.  All the initial goals percents are calculated based previous similar games in the past 5 years. Similar games means games where home and away teams had similar ELO ratings (actually inside a range you can set - for example +/- 25 points...etc) 2.   Now, the percents may be affected by different events and you have 2 possibilities:      a. adjust manually the attack or defence strength for both team, depending on your information about the game      b. adjust automatically the attack or defence strength based on some predefined events, like "bad weather conditions" or "important  home team defender is missing"              Any modification of attack or defence strength will lead to the change of percents for the goals based what you set for +5% variation. In order to preset what happen when the attack or defence changes with 5% click the first "Manage" button. At this moment there are not set any changes so any change over attack or defence has no effect. You have to do this by clicking "Manage" button. By the way, please see how close are probabilities calculated to offered odds. The events are for testing purposes. I do not know if it there was havy rain. In order to apply point b. you have to predefine your events. Clck the second button "Manage" and you can do that. I added for testing purposes few events.
  13. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Few steps forward last night ...:) 1. I improved a little bit manage procedure for adjust attack/defense strength    2. Added correct score percents. 3. Added the possibility to show/hide the markets in order to have a better look of markets where are you interested in More to come 1. Added the Asian Handicap market percents 2. Manage how different events affect the goals scored percents. Again, if you have any idea please write here. I do not promise I will implement but maybe will discuss here  
  14. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Sure, just follow the instructions and send me your user code.
  15. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Yes, still 2 free VIP licenses for November and one is yours. Just follow the instructions, download and install the software and send me your user code using the form on my CONTACT web page.