giraldi

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giraldi last won the day on March 9 2017

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About giraldi

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 05/13/68

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  1. I am not sure I understood correctly. You will pick every week 15 games (probably not random but based on some strategy) and based on your back testing (3 years) you noticed that happened 3-7 away team to win. You would be happy to play a martingale but your problem is that there may be 4 games on the same moment? Is that right? Regarding your question I think you have no other option but to number the games 1,2,3,4 then consider all the previous games have been lost. (will lay no 4 as you have already lost 1-3). If you will lose all will continue as usual with no.5. If you win no3 for example and lost 4,will continue with no 5 as the new number 2 (with the difference that the stake will be bigger) I am sure that you have already thought on it. On the other hand, you probably know what the risks are. And probably know that math is against you and is almost impossible to win against math. If you play odds 2.00 – 3.5 that means that the probability for away win would be around 30% – 50% in a single game and you assume that cannot happens (or will happen on other life) more than 8 games in a row. The bad news is that in every game, even on game no.9, the players have no idea you play martingale and their chance to win is 30%-50% like in the game no.1 . The difference is that you will play a huge stake. Do the math. More than that even if we assume, by absurd, there are some calculations that show us that away team will not win 8 in a row (or with an extremely low probability) , these are available for an infinite number of games. Unfortunately your 15 Games may happen to be won all by away teams very often.
  2. I added Ireland , both leagues for the next season. If you notice some problems please let me know Now, New features in Live Statistics! 1 Live odds for selected games , with green in (D)ata column. They are just for orientation but good to see if there may be value with your bookie. You have to check it manually. 2 Red card alert for selected games. Of course if will have red cards we have to be suspicious about past stats. 3 Highlight values if odds and sample are good enough. The values will be highlighted if there may be value, but only if the sample value is over the value you set.
  3. I update the database with the "January-December" leagues , before 1st of March. This happens every year.. they start earlier so will lose 1-2 rounds. I have to do changes in the program for the summer leagues and do not want to work separately for each league (some of them are not ready)
  4. Sorry for the late responses. All my focus went last week to my new software So, CGMBet Live Statistics will track the live games (for now, the same leagues as Advanced Goals) minute by minute and calculates different markets based on current score & minute. Of course you can track only a selected league, MyLeagues, MyGames... It is not about Nostradamus here. All calculations are made based on past games - Home, Draw, Away, Over, Under, with or without handicap - The percent of games where home/away score in the next xx minutes. - The most 3 most probable FT scores considering current score & minute All are calculated for FT, for a given minute, if the home/away will score in the next xx minutes. As I said all are calculated based on ELO (adjustable) but if you are not an ELO fan you can use all games in the same leagues. More than that exists the option to set so if the sample number is too low to trust in it, the software will switch to all games. Cool. More features will be added soon: Export, more markets after you select a game to focus on, ...a replay system to play again a past day in order to see bad decisions...(I have no idea how will do that but I like how it sounds.)
  5. The new video tutorial present the Rating V & M sections of the software. Rating (V)alue allows to find value bets based on number of goals scored in previous games. It also allows you to adjust predicted percents based on last info like attack or defence strength, weather condition..etc Rating (M)aker allows to create your own rating system based on up to 5 criteria like number of games lost, number of under 2.5 games, goals scored etc
  6. You have many options to use AH stats already but will improve this kind of features. For example see the picture below: I set home/away values 1. for home teams the percent of games won with the handicap -1.5 2. for away games te percent of games lost with the handicap +1.5 then I set to be highlighted values over 30% . Where you will see "yellow" on both value (or very high values on home or away value) probably deserve to take a look to see if indeed home teams can win with at least 2 goals difference... As I said every time, the stats are very good to check and I can not imagine betting or trading without prepare a game checking all the possible stats BUT never bet only based on stats - check the last info as deep as possible THEN make your decision based on your strategy and always bet what you can afford to loose. (That means to close your eyes then think you lost the bet - if you still are OK place the bet ) Just wanted to stress that because there are still guys that think that a machine (or software) can bet by itself and win money without human intervention.
  7. Sorry for the late answer... The free VIP licensed are suspended for a while. Anyway, I do not think there are more then 1-2 members that asked for a VIP license and did not receive one so far. And do not want to say that the majority of them did not keep their word to give a feed-back, not necessary good but a minimum feed-back. JBird -there is not the possibility to save the strategies' name...because nobody asked for that and I really did not notice the problem. Now, I put in on my TO DO list and will see .... the space is a big problem there..
  8. A or B

    As Liero1 said, you can say that the probabilities are (1/decimal odds) . So you can calculate probability for 1-0 as p(1-0)=1/7 = 0.1428*100=14.28% and so on Then as a general rule when you see "or" you will add the probabilities and if you see "and" you multiply them So, 1-0 or 1-1 or 2-1 or 2-2 means that you have to add all the probabilities then will give you around 49% Later edit: sorry did not see Liero1 just answered.... On the other hand those 1/7 ...etc to not be confused with the real probabilities to happen the event but this is other discussion ..
  9. Big improvements in Advanced Goals Stats. I added the possibility to check not only the team but "similar teams". That means that will be considered in calculation not the team "Tottenham" but any team that have had similar ELO coefficient. This is extremely good because maybe is less important what goals scored Man City 15 years ago then what goals scored teams that have had the relative value similar to today's City value. Also added the possibility to select as opponent "teams like..." then choose a team from current league. The system will consider only the opponents that have had similar ELO (+/- selected value) For example, in the picture, see how I set the buttons to see details about today-s game Tottenham-Utd. In the last 15 years, there were 224 games between teams like Tottenham vs teams like Utd (ELO +/- 50 points) We can see that home scored first in 115 games, and in the first 15 minutes in 38 games - that means around 17% - pretty good. Then if click on 38 number will see that Tottenham scored the second goal, in 14 Utd scored the second goal (and probably in 4 cases ended 1-0) Extremely often the second goals arrive in the next minutes after the goal scored in 1-15 minutes!
  10. You will think I went too far, unless you are a statistic freak, like me. Added up to 5 goals + minutes intervals Top 5 leagues. Underdog, away, scored in 1-15 then scored again until 55 (for 0-2) The favourite scored fast until 65 and had 25 minutes to win 63 games found. Underdog not lost in 74.6%
  11. Did not have the time to present a few new features created based on users requests. I created a few new buttons that will allow you much more advanced filters. For example in the picture below I want to see what happened in Premier League after the underdog, playing away, scored first before 20 minutes, then still lead in the 70th minute. We can see on the bottom table that the system found 91 games since 2005. The underdog managed to won just around 62% games. It seems a low value to me for just 20 minutes remained. As a bouns, I added a button to see the odds instead of percents. Need to click CALCULATE button if you want to change that
  12. The number of goals scored depends on period of the year? Probably I will study this. Anyway, following a few suggestions I added two filters in order to see only the goals scored: - between 2 months (for example winter months like in the picture ) - last 15, 30 or 60 days..etc
  13. johnnybravvo,Josy, DKY install the software, click UPDATE then follow the instructions provided there.
  14. thesage, the odds are from Pinnacle. Probably there are no odds for this market. I checked and many games have odds but a lot of games have not indeed. I will check anyway, I introduced last time the new add-on. I managed to check and to add the goals minute for about 40 leagues since 2010 season. I remember that for the top 5 countries, first 2 leagues data is available since 2005 season. For example, in the picture you can see the first goal scored minute for all the leagues available for the last 5 years, in percent.
  15. Every month are released at least 2 licenses for PL users. I think the last 2 months were released much more. The next 2 will be available after 1st of December. Just expected a correct feed-back, here or to my email adress. I would appreciate especially negative opinions and suggestions to improve. Now, I would like to introduce a new add-on. It is under constructions so any suggestion would be appreciated. The bug reports will be appreciated also. There are a lot of data and calculations so unexpected results are still possible. Please play with it and report any error. If you click on the Adv. Goals button on menu bar there will be 2 pages of stats. First one will allow you to see the goals minutes, team by team or at league level. For now, there is stats only for top 5 leagues, first and second level. The results are for 15 seasons back. Next months will be added other leagues also. Will be possible also to click on a cell in the first table then to see in the bottom table what happened next... On the bottom control panel you can set a lot of parameters... The second page will allow you to see, for a specific leagues what was the result in different markets for example if the home team scored in the first 15 minutes then score is still 1-0 in the 70 minutes...etc