giraldi

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giraldi last won the day on March 9

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About giraldi

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  • Birthday 05/13/68

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  1. First of all I would like to give all credit for this new feature to my friend Conor. It is his idea and also sponsored this new very powerful feature. As you know there is a feature “Alerts”. You are allowed to set up to 10 alerts in order to be aware if some games appear on UPCOMING screen. For example games where home team won last 3 games at home and away team not scored 3 games in a row. There are many possibilities – for example to alert you just if the odds are over 2.30 for example….etc Now, thanks to Connor , I created a new feature in order to see how your alerts performed in the past. In order to do that - Select a past period - nr.1 in the picture - Select the button “show only my alerts” – nr.2 in the picture - REFRESH At this moment will be activated a new tab – ALERTS – nr. 3 in the picture. Here will be presented your possible profit for all leagues, a specific league, for all alerts, for a specific alert. More than that you can select to see only alerts where the calculated values are highlighted – see nr.4 in the picture. I am very positive this new feature will be very useful and will be a nice new toy for statistic freaks.
  2. Sure, just install the software and send me your user code using the form on my CONTACT web page. You will receive your license within 8 hours. Please be aware that first update will be without registration. Just after the first update you will see your user code and will be prompted for your license code. One more VIP license left for June.
  3. Thank you dm85, I hope my tools will continue to be useful for you.. Now, I added few useful features in Advanced Rating Maker: First of all and most important, for the entire summer period, the Rating Maker is free to use 1. If you right click on the first table you may add the game to "My games" list. This will allow you to keep the games you would like to follow and to check later. 2. It is possible now to load "My Games" and apply them the Rating Maker. 3. I separated head to head option. Now you can select home+away games (all games played between teams no matter the venue) or home vs away games (only games where home team played at home and the away team played away).
  4. Did you try my Poisson Calculator (see the site on my signature, then TOOLS page)? It is free to use and may be improved if you have some good suggestions. I am not very sure what "Poisson Distribution Soccer Prediction Model" means.
  5. As StevieDay said we have Ajax and Manchester United big favourites to go into the final. In my opinion is hard to believe that they will fail. It is not a problem about who will win the games or who will qualify. It is obvious that MU and Ajax are the BIG favourites. It is a matter about what bet is the best with the best value. Would be easy to back MU to win and Ajax to qualify, eventually with an acc and we have an acceptable 1.80. The problem is that will be done by 90% of the players and I bet all my bank that there is no value and after few alike "good bet" those players will be very sad. 1. It is true, Lyon is not on best shape but I noticed that (especially at home) is "all or nothing" team. Unexpected lost games and games where scored a lot. Actually they scored at least 4 goals in 50% games at home in the Ligue 1. 2. Will not be a very easy game for MU. What Celta Vigo has to loose? They reached semifinals, it is no difference between 6-0 and 0-0 ... so why not play the game of their life? Also please note that MU did not won at home in Premier 11 games out of 18 - too much for their status. 3. When in doubt is always better to back the underdog. I am thinking to back "Celta Vigo to qualify" and "Monaco to qualify" each of them with at least 6.50. At first sight seems to be risky (and it is - I have great chances to lose my money) but if you read instead "99% of players think that MU and Ajax, have 90% chances to qualify and I do not agree with them" it looks OK
  6. Following some suggestions I introduced new options for the Advanced Rating Maker: Not won Not draw Not lost GG NG and also the GG and NG on the results container. In the picture below I created a simple rating for today's Premier games, based on GG and Over 2.5 goals then I wanted to see what happened this season in the Premier considering the same rating values. (+/- 5 points) for the Stoke - West Ham match The total number of similar games was not very big, only 15, but we can see that indeed Over 2.5 and GG happened more often.
  7. Thank you for your advice. I totally agree with you. Any software must be easy to understand and to use. But, if you read about my software, I stated it is "a powerful tool for experienced players". I have just wanted to be fair and to present my project as it is – not very easy to use. My software will be impossible to use for some and will be loved by others, nothing between. On the other hand, even a beginner may find some very simple tools - as straight tables, (maybe hundreds different statistics table). Now, regarding the last picture, maybe you are right, it is a little bit too much for one screen but for those that understood what I want to do there, with Advanced Rating Maker is an invaluable tool for sure. And it is not finished
  8. The Advanced Rating Maker has now the possibility to test your selections against past results. As an example. I set up a rating as follows: For the home team: 1. The percent of won games in the last 10 games at home - 70% 2. The numbers of goals scored/game in the last 10 games at home - 30% For the away team: 1. The percent of lost games in the last 10 games at home - 70% 2. The numbers of goals received/game in the last 10 games at home - 30% I selected on the right side only Premier League games, today then clicked CALCULATE (Please note that now is possible to export the resulted table by clicking EXPORT button) At this moment the bottom butons are not activated but if you select a game (I selected HULL - WATFORD) the bottom buttons are activated. The values for selected game are 45 vs 69 Please note that greater number does not mean better. It is just a number and in this case it is worst if it is bigger actually. After I select the interval +/- 5 points and "This season" clicked CALCULATE. Please note that the system will calculate only the games where the home teams have the values between 40-50 and the away teams have the values between 64-74. In the bottom grid will be presented all the games that met the conditions. Under the grid are presented the possible results. In this case home teams won 14 games out of 15 with a very good profit. Please try this new powerful feature and report any error or unexpected result.
  9. Finnaly, few importants steps forward on Advanced Rating System. I found extremely hard to create this tool. Maybe this is the reason I did not find any similar program over the net. For example we can create a simple rating system based on percent of games won this season at home versus percent of games lost this season away. This is very simple but we mat think to combine this with the goals scored, games over, under....etc. This new tool will allow us to create rating systems based on maximum 5 values. If we use more than one value we must set the "weight" of each value. For example 1. The percent of games won at home last season - 75% 2. The goals scored/game this season - 25% All values must be in the interval 0-100 so if we have "goals scored" the resulted value must be translated to 0-100. With the last 2 buttons we can do that by selecting the source interval to be translated to 0-100 For example, if we used "goals scored/game" will result something like 1.34 or 0.95 or 2.00...etc so will set the minimum value to 0 and maximum value to 4. The next step is to create a back-testing system. I will finish it next weeks. Seems to be complicated but it is not actually . I will respond to any question you may have. It would be excelent to report bugs and/or to make suggestions. I will implement them if it is possible
  10. It is possible now to see the results in the UPCOMING section not only for Half Time, Second Time or Full Time but also between selected minutes! This may be extremely useful if you search for games where at least one team used to score very quickly, or maybe just after the period, or whatever. For example, in the example bellow I selected My leagues, goals scored for the home teams, goals received for the away teams - After all I selected to calculate only for the goals scored (received) in the first 15 minutes. How to read the results. For example Nice - Bordeaux, tonight. We can see that Nice scored 0.533 goals/game in the first 15 minutes (much more than league average - 0.187) since Bordeaux received 0.429 goals/game in the first 15 minutes (much more than league average). May be nothing but also may be something interesting. Anyway, please consider the following limitations of this new powerful feature: 1. The feature is allowed only for the current season (may be available soon for past seasons) 2. As I checked there are 95.5% games this season with correct goal minutes (I work to improve the percent) 3. It is still under testing so please take care...
  11. Hi, sorry for the late response but the free VIP licenses are released in the first days of the month. Just install the software, click the update button then follow the instructions. You will receive the first VIP license for this month. One more remain.
  12. Tough decision to be made indeed, to not bet included. I am very disappointed I lost one of my three favourites – Roma (2 remains Ajax and Anderlecht) At first sight, without any closer information, what to say? Schalke has some problems with only few points over relegation zone and 2 games against 2 “colleagues” just around the EL game against Ajax. Ajax stays OK and has full power activated for the finish anyway just few points behind Feyenoord . If Ajax beat Feyenoord on 2nd April will also beat Shalke. Anderlecht, another team on very good shape against a team that does not feel very well. But here the last word has KikoCy. I will back Anderlecht anyway We can say that Genk and Celta finished the problems in their leagues so all the attention is on CL. A kind of lottery in my opinion so if I will bet I will choose the better price. Genk @6.00 is very good I have no idea about Lyon-Besiktas but the odds 1.53 I do not like. Depends what I will find until middle of April I will take my decision. Anyway 6.50 is huge. Lyon is not a super team at the moment ( au contraire ) and Besiktas is not a small nor easy team …
  13. I noticed increased interest for the ALERTS section so, following a user suggestion, I added few new features. Please note that all these are included in the free version! First of all, this section may be used to see what happened in the games with a big favorite. I had no other choice but the odds to consider who is the favorite. For example if you would like to see what what games ended draw this season (but you may select all database) in Premier League considering the game where the favorites had odds under 1.50. You would have had a profit around 20% (depends on the time when bet ) if you had bet on draw! Also you may see in the picture (you see only the latest games - you have to scrool to see all ) the games that 1. Qualified for the possible upset (draw in this case) - like Chelsea-Swansea, Everton- Sunderland...and the last one Liverpool-Burnley 2. Actually happened - like Manchester - Bournemuth and Manchester - Stoke ... 3. The next games that qualify for possible upsets in the selected conditions like Middlesboro - Manchester on 19.03
  14. Very good approach. Congratulation. Another proof that knowledge closely a team makes the difference. Many years ago I started a project on a smaller forum. Made a team and each guy had in responsibility one team. His mission was to be the shadow of the team. He knew everything about the players, manager...if the keeper had an affair with the manager's wife..absolutely all. Now, when one team appeared on schedule the guy were the "primadona" and give as good info. The idea was that you, as a isolate player do not have the time resources to know too much...but together is something else. On the other hand if the games will be played again tonight I would say the same things and I will play the same :))
  15. I hope I understood your question, so as nobody tried will try myself but please be aware that I am not an expert. You have to continue your search to find out more There is no direct connection between line and o/u odds but they are "brothers" because has the same parents : the correct score odds and of course the same grand-fathers : the probabilities to score 0,1,2,...9 goals for each team. In my opinion, this way, all the odds has to be consistent so the players can not have advantages from choosing two different type of markets with sure win. On the other hand anytime the odds for draw are very low (high probability - at least the majority think that) the better choice in my opinion should be under (of course after further investigations). Why? Asumning that the game will be draw, in the under zone we have 2 draws 0-0,1-0,0-1,2-0,0-2,1-1 and 6 total scores. (33%) since in the over zone we have maybe only 2-2,3-3 ? between much more scores. Of course, probably the odds are also low for under but, as I said, further study is need