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giraldi

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giraldi last won the day on March 9 2017

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About giraldi

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 05/13/1968

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  1. Most of us can't see all the matches played until a certain moment and make decisions for the next match based strictly on the past results and not on what really happened on the field. It is impossible to fix it but we can try something. Example:.... Round 17: C. Palace - Brighton 1-1 Shots on target: 4-10 Ball possession: 34-66 Don-t you think that C. Palace - Brighton 1-3 would have been a better result to be considered for the next decisions?
  2. Following a few suggestions, I made a zoom to 2016 season and added Leicester. Extremely interesting. All big 5 dropped below 2000 ELO points at the same time (probability < 0.5 %), exactly when Leicester went to it's maximum ever, a little bit over big 5 average.
  3. Another interesting picture: I generated the ELO graph for top 5 teams in Premier, starting with 2005 season, almost 600 games. 1. There is a general downward trend, obviously. 2. Without underestimating the merits of Leicester, something happened to top5 in the 2016 season.
  4. Probably most of us are wondering if the (successful) strategies available before the lockdown will work after the season is resumed First of all, my opinion is that during the lockdown was a bad idea to bet unless you have info about the teams involved in Belarusian second league. On other words, it would have been a kind of lotto for me but for a guy that lives in Belarus would have been a gold mine. As he knows the teams and the players will find easier the value especially because there will be a lot of guys like me that don-t even can read correctly the teams name. Now, regarding the betting after the lockdown, I was curious what happened last 10 seasons considering the games where the home team have not played for at least 2 weeks. (there is no data for a larger interval between games) Because I have the data I calculated what happened if the interval between 2 games was under 3 games. I noted T1 - top teams ELO>2000 at the game's moment T2 - average teams ELO>1700 at the game's moment T3 - bottom teams Here is the graph only for "Home Win" market. How to read it, see the highlighted selection Please note that T1-T3 and T3-T1 had not so many games but for example, T1-T2 had a good sample. (T1-T2) means all the games between (Top teams - Average teams) played last 10 seasons 1. The first column (blue) - 74.47% of total games were won by the home teams 2. The second column(red) - 77.59% of the games were home team played the last games less than 3 days ago were won by the home team 3. The third column (green) - 55.56% of the games were home team played the last games more than 15 days ago were won by the home team As a first conclusion it-s easy to see that if the interval between games is reduced, the top teams won more games than usual but if the interval is larger they won just a little bit over 50% Now, just after the lockdown, we are in the column 3 situation so have to try to find value in laying top teams. After 1-2 rounds will be in the column 2 situation and for sure will try to back the top teams. Of course, will need to check all the available info but I think this will be the trend.
  5. Hi I am 100% sure you will find the answer to your questions as here are many very experienced guys around. Until one of them answers you, please allow me to share my conclusions after, a few years ago, I asked myself a similar question. Of course, as I said, this is just an opinion I developed based on my research. Here is just a very short summary. I will not give names or examples. Assuming that you are an honest player, and don-t try to take any undeserved advantage and you are not addicted and with problems related to gambling I found out that bookies can be divided into the following categories: B1 - Top bookies for professional players B2 - Top bookies for regular players B3 - Everything else B1. (just a few) B1 are bookies where you will not have any kind of problems related to your stake, as soon as there is enough money placed on the opposite market (in a simplisting way). B1 bookies will encourage you to bet as much as you want and even they advertise "winners are welcome!" If you become a millionaire, not only will not block your account but advertise harder "See? It is possible. What are you waiting for?" Again, the only limitation is because there is not enough money on the other side so they will not have a win/win situation. (in a simplisting way). Thats-s why you might see those "maximum stake = xxxxxx" (but usually this is high enough) B2. (many of them) B2 are bookies where you will not have any kind of problems related to your stake as soon as they do not identify you as a proffesional player or, by luck, you win too much or lost too much. If you read carefully their terms and conditions (probably less than 1% do that) they state that offer a platform for entertainment (not exactly with the same words ) so will not allow becoming rich (goto B1) but on the other side will not allow betting your life (goto Home) If everything goes well, finally everybody is happy here: If you win then you are happy that win, if you lose you are happy that not lost so much but just the fair price for your entertainment, the bookie is happy becasue takes the "juice" B.3 (just a few) if you really like the adventure. Here can place/win more than win at B2 but can find your account blocked after a big win until they will investigate if are not related to the player that scored 3 own-goals. As I understand, you need a B1 and you have already named a few. 100% sure will not have problems there if you play correctly. Regarding your strategy, the numbers you displayed are impressive indeed but 90-95% accuracy would be even more impressive if tell us more, like what is the market, what are the odds...etc. Given your background, I am sure you agree with me that 95% accuracy in the "over 9.5 goals in the first half" market might be not enough.
  6. I would say, based on my own experience that is extremely complicated to calculate statistically how will be affected a team if one/two players are missing What I tried a few years ago it was to record all minutes played by each player, the results...etc. Then to compare what happened when the player was on the field with the games they were not. Soon, I realised this is not enough anyway. I find out that if a player is missing, there is extremely important (again) to see combinations of players. I found out that some players play much better and the team had better results if other 2-3 players were present together...etc. Finally, I gave up because there would have been too many combinations and the results not sure. On the other hand, what I would try is to back the team where very important players are missing at the right time. Why? You talked about value. Let-s think that at one moment the odds are stable. What happens right after the information that 2 important players will not play? For sure many many will try to back the opponent team as soon as possible and they move the odds far more then really is needed. Is like an overreaction given by the first impulse. Of course, in a short time, the odds will be stabilized again but we need to catch the better odds to back the team with the missing players. In my opinion, there are greater chances to be value. It is a very common situation when after a team remains without 1 key player (red card during the game or before the game..etc ) , the manager tells to remaining players that need to give more on the field to compensate the missing player. Almost every time, especially top teams, play better than before. This is like a joke but I think is not far from reality
  7. Thank you Froment for your intervention. You are right, my software is just a tool not a prediction software. It is just a paint brush. Not even an excellent quality paint brush can quarantee that if you will be the next Van Gogh but for sure will help those that have talent and work hard to sell more paintings than those that paint with low quality colored pencils. :)) Hi Zabadac, interesting comments. You contradict yourself a little bit when said "to beat the bookies". After that, you are right in my opinion, we need to be more informed, equiped ...etc than the other players not than the bookies (this will be never possible - this would be the end of the betting industry anyway). Bookies just want as many customers as possible and really don-t care how you bet or how much you win as long as your won bets are paid from the other users account, users that are not using a god quality paint brush :))
  8. It-s extremely hard without results, numbers, tables, statistics. So, just to see some random results and standings I created a kind of game. It is about a virtual league. You can create a 20 teams league then play the season round by round or even minute by minute. The goals are scored based on what happened in similar played real games. In the SETTINGS menu you can choose 20 teams then a virtual season is generated when you save the teams. Finally, select the Virtual League like any other league and play it round by round. It-s possible to choose a team to follow (highlighted with bold font). Just for fun I add the possibility to "help" your favourite team with ELO points In the last picture I simulated Premier League with Barca, Real, PSG and Bayern. It was very interesting to follow Liverpool until the last round :)) United and City under Wolves? A few years ago what were the odds for Leicester to get the league? :)) I admit this is childish,no need to say it :)) Stay safe !
  9. A tutorial to introduce the new Early Alert software Will learn to set up an alert and to backtest it. Many advanced users consider the backtesting module as one of the most powerful modules I have created so far. (and more features are coming).
  10. Last weekend, a colour blind user told me that couldn't distinguish between wins and draws and asked me if it is a chance to do something about. I did not feel very comfortable because I should think about this limitation earlier so I created a new tool that allows him, and everyone else, to change the colours across the software. It is very easy now to set the colours you want. Here is just a random example.
  11. The new Early Alert testing page gives ideas to advanced users If I can set a past period why do not see what would have been the yield for various markets if all the conditions are true? (operational soon)
  12. These days CGMBET celebrates 9 years since the first international version. The first versions of Home and Tables pages in the pictures below. 😍 And of course, as every year, big discounts on the site, for absolutely anything.
  13. Finally after a few months of hard work the new software CGMBet Early Alert System is open for trial! What it is about: This is a new software that allows you to define very complex alerts based (even on minutes interval), to see the results on your screen or to ask to receive the alerts directly to your email address. Can be set one alert for each of the following markets: Won, Draw, Lost, Over, Under, Scored, Conceded, GG,NG and for each market a few other markets, for example, Won by 1 goal, Under 3.5 goals...etc Anyway, the list for new markets is still open. There is a "Test the alert" page where you might see the results for each alert, for the default period or for a selected period. Finally, is possible to export the tables to XLS or CSV to study them further.
  14. Yes, it was not very difficult and this new feature helps a lot the upsets hunters It is possible now to save/load the default settings. (please use with caution as it was not time to test it completely) I noticed lately that many advanced users are interested in the Upsets module. Not only because it allows to check when happened, the teams that did it more then another..etc but also allows you to see if would have been a good idea to back or to lay upsets in different leagues In the example below I checked the Premier where the favourites, with odds <2.00, did not win away. (with green are the next games where big favourites play away) How to read the results: In 48 possible upsets, 19 happened to be upsets and our return would have been approximative equal with the total stake I have check all the big leagues and can tell that only Spain (because of Barca) has been profitable to back the big underdog at home.
  15. Following your suggestions, the new multiselection feature in the UPCOMING section allows now, with a right-click, to add all games selected, one by one, to Bets Tracker or to My Games list.