giraldi

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giraldi last won the day on March 9

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About giraldi

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 05/13/68

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  1. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Thank you Alekos, I am glad you like the software. I would be more than happy to receive any opinion, especially bad one. Will help me a lot to improve. Speaking about improvements, I managed to finish (let-s say 99%) of the new Bets Tracking tool. I, personally, like it very much. It is very fast and allows you a lot of filters based on accounts, leagues, teams, odds, markets...etc. I added the second screen (tab) to see all stats for each account/market/league or just for combination of them. It is too much to explain. I created a video tutorial that you may see here:
  2. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    One of my friend asked me to explain with a little bit more details how works the rating based on goals scored. Let-s try: Based on the parameters you selected (ELO interval, the seasons back...etc), the system gives you the probabilities for any number of goals. 0,1,2,3,4.... Based on these probabilities the system calculates the probabilities for any market. You have to compare the system probabilities with the odds offered. Finally the system highlights the odds with value. Like the following example: Based on the last 5 seasons, the system gives the goals probabilities then consider that Away and over 2.5 have value. Yes, this is posted after the game (the result was 2-4) but the screen-shot was taken before the game with many days - please note there are no odds yet for many markets Let-s notice also how close are the odds calculated by system to bookie odds. Ok, but the probabilities are calculated based on historical results. My intention was to offer a tool to adjust the probabilities based on late events. For example we just found that the goalkeeper or centre-left defender has an affair with the centre right defender girlfriend and all have an affair with the manager girl. This, for sure will make their defence weaker..... Or we just learned that will be a heavy rain at the time of game. This for sure will affect attacks of the both teams. And so on. As I said, I created some tools - take a look to those buttons: "Home team attack", "Home team defence".... You can increase or decrease attack or defence. For example in the first example (with girlfriend) will decrease the defence with 10% lets say. Will notice that the probabilities will adjust accordingly and probably will increase the probabilities for 1,2,3, goals but will decrease the probabilities for 0 goals. I offered also the possibility to save some common situations. See the picture: Important striker is missing, heavy rain...etc. By selecting this option, automatically all the rules will change based on what you saved - please see the following picture. For example if you select "Bad weather conditions", the home attack will be decreased by 5%, away team attack with 10% ...This is just an example. You can set what you want here. Ok, let-s return to the main screen. I said that you can increase/decrease the attack/defence strength. But if we increase the attack with 10% how will affect this the probabilities to be scored 0,1,2,3,,,goals? Even here I gave the power to final user to decide. For example, in the following picture I set how will be affected the probabilities to score 0,1,2,3..goals for each (+) or (-) 5% move of the attack strength. As you can see I set as follows: the probability to be scored 0 goals will be decreased by 3% but will be increased the probabilities for 1 goal (2%) and 2 goals (1%). Also, if the attack strength will be decreased by 5% the probability to be scored 0 goals will be increased by 3% but will bede creased the probabilities for 1 goal (2%) and 2 goals (1%). This is just an example. You should try your own strategies here. It is very important to keep a zero sum (please note the green zone). Now I hope it is more clear what happens when you select "Heavy rain" for example. The attack/defence are affected with some percent then the probabilities for goals are affected based on the below screen.
  3. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Few important steps forward. I remember that this new tool will be free for one account and the basic features! Will be enough to track your bets better and faster than an EXCEL file! If you have options on EXCEL file that this tool does not have yet will add it for sure! 1. Added BACKUP and RESTORE buttons. Please take care and do not save the backup file on the program folder! At this moment, the system backup all bets and restore by overwriting the bets file! On the next versions will be possible to have more options... 2. Integrated more with UPCOMING. If you select My Bets option on the switch under table the column "My Games" will change to "My Bets" and will see all the bets you have already placed, if any. Of course, the errors are possible on this stage. Please report any problem!
  4. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Today I present you few more steps I made on Bets Tracking add-on: Possible now to add bets (only from this form, upcoming and rating will follow) and delete bets from database. I added few random games to play with them. The color code I think is obvious: green for full won, light green for half won, light red for half lost, red for full lost. Yellow for push.And of course white for pending bets. I like it very much and especially that is very fast :)) . Just to play with filters on the left side......will like it for sure. I think will be a great tool and will replace all those XLS sheets finally.....will add everything an XLS sheet can do and will have a lot more Please work and play with it until you will receive an error. Then send it to me I am open to any suggestion also.
  5. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Just made a new video-tutorial for the UPSETS section. This tool allows you to find past upsets considering league and the odds. Working for this new tutorial I found some interesting stats. For example, backing underdog with odds over 5.00 would have been profitable in Premier League this season. Also laying where the favourite was under 1.50. But laying under 1.20 was bad - would have lost everything Here is the tutorial. By the way, for November - 3 VIP licenses
  6. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Finally, following few users requests, I added few more values to compare in the Advanced Rating Maker. Shots, Shots on target Ball possesion All the values will be calculated as an average value ( per match played) Few more interesting ratings may be created now The calcualtion is limited to current season because I am not sure if there are all values for past seasons. I will check anyway. As a bonus is possible now to leave Advanced Rating Maker and go to other section then return without lost the values. You have to minimize or maximize the form but do not forget to close it when finish the work with it
  7. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Thank you Boristheblade, I have just wanted to make it to work.... I know there may be problems on some configurations and every new issue I will use to improve my experience. So, I thank you for having problems with my software. On the other hand, I have just made a new video-tutorial that presents TABLES module of my software. Will see many features that I am sure you did not know actually exist. CGMBet Tables - video tutorial
  8. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    A lot of users asked me how to use Rating Maker section. It is my fault I did not manage to make it easier to understand but today I finished a short video-tutorial. Will try to explain the main steps for creating a simple rating maker then test it against last 2 seasons results. Advanced Rating Maker video tutorial
  9. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Thank you for reporting. Unfortunatelly, it happens now and then but try to correct as soon as possible.
  10. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Yes, you will receive the second license for this month. Just install then click UPDATE to see your user code. Send it to me using the form on my CONTACT web page. eckersley, please send me your user code. If I will not receive the code within next 48 hours, the license will be taken by another one. I remember that I expect feed-back from the other who received free VIP license. Especially bad feed-back because would help me more.
  11. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Hi Eckersley Sure, just install the latest version then click UPDATE button and follow the instructions provided there.
  12. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Minor change: With the help of project's friend Konstantin, I created a new button for Rating Maker. The new button has been placed on the menu bar next to the other two rating sections. Rating Maker is a very useful set of tools where you may create your own rating based on goals scored in similar games or based on your own criterias with Advanced Rating Maker You can test your rating against past results also . Major update: Unlocked yesterday the "Suggestions" feature. Here you may find some matches selected by an automated procedure. Of course I recommend to look deeper and take all the info into consideration. It is just a robot
  13. Basic percentage questions

    What you did there I would say it is just your own rating system. Yes, you convert to odds then compare with offered odds to find value. Maybe works maybe not (probably not on log term) The odds are calculated for sure on completely different way.
  14. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Sure, just install the latest version then click UPDATE button and follow the instructions provided there.
  15. CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

    Any analyze is not complete without players information. Finally I managed to add to database players following leagues: England 1,2,3,4 / Italy 1,2 / Spain 1.2 France 1,2 Germany 1,2 What you may find now: 1. Lineups: here you will not see just an image with players positions before kick-off. It is possible to make your own team, to add players on the field, to remove ..etc in order to see how will look the teams face to face. Every player is marked with a line green – red that will show how many minutes played for his team. If the player is red colored he is probably unavailable. Of course I recommend to check the latest information on the club site. 2. Players: here you will find some data about team’s players . How many minutes played on each game. This way will see at a glance, if the player is missing, how important he was for the team. How he performed on home or away games and if the team will really miss him. 3. Players database: A list with all players in the database. May be sorted on various columns…etc. With click on player you may see almost all the events the player was involved: If he played on lineups, as substitute, the in/out minutes, goals minutes (and very important – at what score he scored) Of course any comment is welcoming