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giraldi

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giraldi last won the day on March 9 2017

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About giraldi

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 05/13/1968

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  1. A few days ago I had a discussion with some friends about two very controversial topics. I opened the discussion here because both topics are the basis for many betting strategies. It's about "gamblers fallacy" and "value in betting" There are probably just a few who don't know what we are talking about here, so I will remind them: Value, in betting, appears when the odds are suggesting that the chances to happen the event are smaller than they really are. And according to Wikipedia: The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less frequently in the future (or vice versa). Now, the problems in discussion were, and I would appreciate your opinion 1. We talk every day about value but is it possible to calculate the exact value for a price so we can tell if we will have profit on long run? If we have the price 2.10 for 50% event like coin flip it is a clear value and will have profit on long run but, For example we have 1.90 odds for home team win and we know with 15 minutes earlier than anyone else (my brother’s best friend is brother in law with the wife-s manager) that the away team will play with the second team or something similar. On this particular situation the odds 1.90 is a certain value and should hurry to get it? Why? Common sense tell us that should be value, but based on what? We bet based on common sense or based on value? What is the probability for home team to win event? What way is calculated? I agree that there are way more chances to have value but my opinion is that will never know if we bet with value or not. Until will see that checking the money into accounts of course. 2. I have often warned about the danger of “gambler’s fallacy” but I was right regarding to betting on football? We have an average team that won 5 in a row. Would be correct to start a strategy like Martingale against them? At first sight would be terrible wrong if looking to “gambler’s fallacy” concept. But, extremely important, the concept is about independent events. If there will be red 100000 times the next red/black will have the same 50% probability to appear. This is the same thing for our team? The next game is not affected at all by the previous games? Some players are probably getting more and more tired. And many other similar things that affects next games. I am against Martingale in betting but my opinion is that is am extremely good strategy in some very particular situations.
  2. I would say to not believe such things and just find out yourself what means dropping odds, why the odds are dropping, what values remain for odds after dropping...and so on then will decide if it is OK to risk your money
  3. I've been working for over a month to see in a 2-2 match for instance, what follows depends on whether it was 2-0 or 0-2 ..etc It definitely matters so will find soon a very important feature. Filter the sample games according to the goals' order. Will post soon a very interesting statistics about what happens in any score game depending on the previous goals' sequence. Until now I considered only the score in the minute 35 for example at score 2-2 but did not consider the order of goals. It is a big difference between 0-2, 2-0, 2-1,1-2...etc
  4. My opinion is that sport betting is learnable for sure but the problem is that you will need more and more resources (time for instance) as you are closer to real profit. Not everyone has patience and resources to do that. (I have not ) It is relatively easy and with a minor effort to study some afticles, books..anyone can transform betting from a black hole into a thing that will not give money but will not suck your money neither. Maybe will just pay the correct price for the "fun" you have when your bet is win/lost in 92 min. If you want to win money from betting, first off all you need to check if you "deserve" it. Did you forget about luck/badluck and accept that s about knowledge and hard workl? Do you know more than other 99% of the bettors the teams involved in your selections? Are you able to calculate in short time complex probabilities?...and maybe there are another 10 similar questions. If you have just a single "NO" then is not good and... back to school. Regarding the previous comments, probably what posted notanotherdonkey is not related to betting but it brings to attention a very impotant problem the begginers have to learn: the gambler's fallacy concept. On short, from Wikipedia : " is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less frequently in the future (or vice versa). " .
  5. I hope we all agree that the value can be found in very small odds but, as in real life, to study the small things you need fine tools and a lot of patience, otherwise you destroy them. It is best to avoid small odds, in my opinion. Is best to avoid very "crowded places" as well. No value where are too many players. My first impression, as did my colleagues above, was that such a strategy simply applied cannot be mathematically winning. I checked all the matches in September considering the difference at least 10 places for the league positions, see picture no.1. 157 out of 1635 met the condition and, as expected the results would have been not extraordinary as you can see in picture no.2 Now, lets-s see what if will consider the places in the home table for home teams and in the away table for the away teams. We have some improvements already. Almost 7% profit for home win. It makes sense because we filtered teams with a good play at home vs teams with a bad play away (and too many players consider only overall teams performance) See pictures no.3 and no.4 Now, let-s go a little bit further and check for home teams placed between 1-5, so they are very strong at home, and the odds over 2.00 (the potential has not been seen yet by the majority of the payers). See pictures no.5 and no.6 The results are much better. See picture no 7. Of course, the results are based on aveage odds but I am sure you got the idea. Don-t play what another 99% play becasue it-s not possible to have 99% of players winners on long term. Finally, of course, I will not be a hypocrite and to say that I did not want to show off the possibilities of my program.
  6. Someone asked me, in order to prepare the next day, if he can know the probabilities early, for ex. if will be 1-0 in 50 min what are the probabilities to score again H or A? No one can say what the probabilities are but LiveStats can say what has been in similar games in the same league last 15 seasons For example for tomorrow game in Ligue1, I set the parameters like in the picture below. Then we ca see that home teams scored in 35.71% and away teams in 30.95% out of 126 games when home team had 1-0 in the 55 minute. Finally we can say that in 65% games there will be another goal until the end of the game.
  7. I received a lot of criticism, obviously, and some referred to the fact that the complexity of the program is overwhelming for those who have just discovered football statistics (and not only). That-s why I created a Light version of the software for beginners or for those that just want basic football statistics. It works like "the mother software" with regular updates...etc but has only the main sections and inside sections, the main features.
  8. I think it is a very important topic. Until one of the experienced guys will help us with the answer I will say my opinion. I think that one of the mistake the player does is to increase the stake too early. We have to understand that betting is a game of probabilities and the probability to lose all bets for the rest of our life is not 0. It is extremely small but is not 0. Of course this is an extreme example.. The most logical answer is to increase to 2 units when your bank is 200, in order to keep 1% from bank. Probably this would say most of the players. The second logical answer would be to never increase the stake, and to save every 100 you get. Probably this would say just a few. I prefer a combination: I would keep the stake 1 until I have 300, then save 100 and increase the stake to 2. Now I have 200 and stake 2, still 1% but have 100 saved (my real pofit). A few comments here: Another mistake can be done is to think that the balance you see on your bookie, under your account are yours. No, the money are yours only when save them to your bank account. Will keep it until I have 400, then save 100 and increase to 3... And so on As I said, this is what I think in this Monday early morning, the worst hours for my brain in the entire week
  9. One of the friends of my project asked for a tool to see what happened on set rounds or against similar teams with current opp Now you can find it in H2H section Chelsea was one of the most profitable teams in the first 3 rounds. Man.Utd games were losers no matter what market
  10. Added new features and improvements lately The most important are: New odds engine that allows you to select where come the odds from (from a list of 3 main bookies for now) Will explain this a little bit later here I added in UPCOMING section a few new buttons to allow you to select the bookie you want to be shown in the system. For now, there are 3 main bookies but the list will continue. It is possible now to see the first odds collected ot the last odds collected (please note: first odds collected not the opening odds - but will be the same in many cases) If you want to see odds movement you will see an improved odds movement screen 2. A few new improvements in CGMBet Live Stats The most important thing so far is that I improved a lot the section where can see the games for future and past days. I added the odds stored for those games so it will be possible now to check the games a few days before and to be ready for action. For example you can see tomorrow games and can see what will be the probabilities for 0 minute but also for 25 minute at 0-1 score. The same thing for past games where you cam set the minute and will see the score at that minute and probabilities. That way you can compare with what really happened and to learn where are the best results.
  11. Should be OK now with the "upsets" section. I managed last week to check the Brasilian Serie A, last 6 seasons data, and I think it is good enough now to be added to the Live Stats software (96.45% goals minutes data accuracy - will be futher improved). More features will be added soon to Live Stats as I decided to focus on this for the next months, to be more helpful in preparing the next days. Of course the 50% discount coupon CGMPL1901 for PL registered members is still in place for the entire next season
  12. I am still working to set up the program for the next season. Will be good to go in a few days, including "upsets'
  13. I have never denied the fact that my database can be used even better then I use in my software so you always had the possibility to export More than that, from now on, in my members area, as VIP user, you can download in EXCEL format any league. The files contain the main data for the current season, including goals time and will be updated every morning. Past seasons data are comming also!
  14. Just a few minor but useful new features 1 Sound alert when a job is done in the main sections and when is value or a goal is scored in LiveStats 2 Mini help buttons placed where users had most questions 3 Open for other suggestions!
  15. Following the users request, the Statistics section is faster now with a completely new engine that will allow you to check very complex stats at league or team level. I had no idea that Lazio did not concede goals in the first half in the last 14 games!