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froment

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froment last won the day on December 11 2019

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About froment

  • Birthday 09/28/1975

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    http://www.BetGPS.com

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    Montenegro

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  1. I guess it was deleted by moderators, and probably this one will be deleted, too - it's just plain spam, to promote site listed in your workbook. Yeah, of course, I also had a couple of winning runs, first I turned $14.72 into $102,380, and then I took $1,256 out of that amount and turned it into $1 Million! I started another hunt, and yesterday I was on ~$250,000!!! I took day off today to check for some stupid posts online and reply; I'll continue tomorrow, and expect to reach $ 1 Million this time next year! And it was pretty easy - I take a list of past matches, already finished ones; I arrange them in a nice Excel table; then I write outcomes: "Win", "Win", "Win"... ok, then "Lose" here and there, it is impossible to win each match, and voila! here is my first $ 1 Million, in the table! What I want to say, if you expect us to believe your story, you should have posted all those bets here, before the match, not now. Had you indeed won 1 Million, I'm sure you wouldn't be spamming forums, you would be working towards next million... My grandma can make millions the way you did.
  2. Back in the day, there was a site WhatIfOdds, which did exactly what you described; it had boxes for each minute of the match, and shown change of odds throughout the match; you tick the minute box when a goal is scored, and it gives you updated odds after that goal. Beautiful site, that unfortunatelly went down, and I have not seen anything similar ever since. In absence of the app, the best solution I can think about is to monitor "adjacent" market; let me explain it for goal lines, it is easier. Let's say result is 0-0, and odds are as follows: Over 0.5 goals 1.10 Over 1.5 goals 1.40 Over 2.5 goals 1.90 Over 3.5 goals 2.90 If a goal is scored at that moment, all odds will be "shifted" to the next line, i.e: Over 0.5 goals closed Over 1.5 goals 1.10 Over 2.5 goals 1.40 Over 3.5 goals 1.90 Over 4.5 goals 2.90 Of course, not exactly the same odds, but add or take a couple of ticks, that would be it. The same applies to Unders. For match result, Home/Draw/Away, you monitor European Handicap line (3-way handicap). Let's say: 1X2 market Home win 1.80 Draw 3.60 Away win 4.50 European handicap market, home team -1 Home win 3.00 Draw 3.80 Away win 2.10 European handicap market, home team +1 Home win 1.25 Draw 6.00 Away win 10.00 Now, if home team scores a goal, 1x2 odds will become Home win 1.25 Draw 6.00 Away win 10.00 If away team scores a goal, 1x2 odds will become Home win 3.00 Draw 3.80 (you see these odds barely changed compared to before goal, they can be even lower - if you ever traded Lay The Draw strategy, you are certainly familiar with "underdog scores first" bomb, duh...) Away win 2.10 For next goal, you observe EH+2 or EH-2 markets, and so on... Similar for AH markets. The site I mentioned above, WhatIfOdds, also had ability to include red card impact; I'm not sure how you could evaluate change of odds after red card; certainly not this way.
  3. From his stats, 45 won, 83 lost, average odds 3.00, it is around 7 units profit at 1 unit stakes, ROI 5.5%. It is not bad result, but sample is way toooooo small to say if he really cracked something or it's just beginner's luck. Another 9 matches losing streak would have wiped that entire profit.
  4. When you say "preview", what do you mean, textual description and prediction, or statistics? For the former, PuntersLounge still has very good write up for a fair number of football matches, and other sports, too, especially tennis. Personally, I don't pay too much attention to them, as I am also statistics junkie. I used various sites over the time, the favourite one TipsterArea.com, and then there are other good ones, such as BTFStats.com, SoccerWay.com (it also has textual preview), FootStats.co.uk, FootCharts.co.uk, SofaScore.com... However, I also like to have raw data on my disposal, and then I do my manipulation with them. My favourite sources are Football-Data.co.uk and CGMBet.com; the later one is an incredible tool, I guess you are aware of its own successfull thread here: I publish some of the tools I use on my site, BetGPS.com. I also like the spreadsheets available at OddsPredictor.org.uk, they have very interesting stats.
  5. Actually, I made a mistake - 3 out of 12 is indeed 220, not 180 as I said, it was 3 out of 10... 😳
  6. Neither do I... 🙃 I mean, it is some kind of "shortened system" - as he says above, instead of wagering total of 84 and 220 trebles, one wagers 21 and 32 trebles, thus significantly saving on stakes, with guaranteed winners IF you win one match from each group. Though, a little bit of elaboration would have helped. Also, I don't ger where 220 trebles for second system comes from - 3 out of 12 makes 180 combinations, not 220?
  7. Any intention to explain what is it?
  8. Hi, Benfika guy, nice to see you decided to post! As for your question, I'm a bit late for the show, but I see it's not busy, so let me try anyway. At lay odds of 2.92, and asuming commission of 5%, you need strike rate, or accuracy as you call it, of 66.9% to break even. Hence, if you get only 65% of your picks correct, it's a losing system, and I believe that no staking system in the world can turn a losing system into a winning one. That is, not counting so-called Parrondo paradox, but I doubt your strategy relies onto that. It especially applies to "chasing loses", which your proposed staking system basically is. If you increase stakes after a loss to recoup accumulated losses is a sure way to poor house, please don't do it. If you're not familiar with pitfalls of Martingale staking system, google it, and you will find extensive resources. My advice is to try to refine your strategy to increase accuracy (or decrease lay odds), and once your accuracy is above break even limit, simple staking systems will do - fixed stake (which would be fixed liability in the case of laying), fixed profit or fixed bank percentage will do its work quite well.
  9. Hi, Suproni, to the forum! Check CGMBet software by @giraldi here: I believe you can easily extract historical data with these criteria you mentioned, to backtest your system.
  10. This time luck was on your side, Ruzomberok went from 0-2 to 2-2 literally with the final whistle! Nice start to the day, you secured profit. Good luck with your venture!
  11. Can you tell me, please, how does it come Asian on 6.5 line? I thought Asian always had push option, and there's no push with 6.5 line, it's either won or lost, no push, correct?
  12. This is the shocking news, I didn't know anyhting about his situation, so sad to hear this... I did not know him personally either, but in times when I was regular here, he was always friendly and supportive guy. Certainly terrible days for his family, hope they will manage through that.
  13. If you cared to read, you'd have noticed CGMBet is not prediction site/program at all.
  14. Hello, Hurco; welcome to the forum! Your question is not silly; while they say that people are born with natural ability to swim, and then they lose that ability within first weeks of life, I highly doubt we are born with natural knowledge of betting exchanges, so some of us have to ask it sooner or later. I mean, all of us in this forum had such a question. With your example, there is indeed not difference between exchange and "normal bet platform". However, betting exchnage offers you a possibility to trade your bets: to place the opposite bet before the event ended, so you lock in a profit - or, more usually, in a loss - regardless of final outcomeof the match. Let's see how; in your example, you laid 0-0 at odds of 4.00 (insanely good odds for laying 0-0, if you ask me) with stake of 10 units, and liability of 30 units. Odds for 0-0 tend to shorten during the match, untill they reach 1.01 in closing moment. After quarter of an hour of play, you're dissapointed with performance of your team, so you decide to trade out. By that time, odds have shortened to 3.50. You place the opposite bet now: you back 0-0, with stake of 11.43. So, you're risking 11.43 units to win 28.58 units. If they manage to find their way to net, you win 10 units from lay bet, and you lose 11.43 units from back bet; net loss 1.43 units. If, however, no goal is scored by the end of the match, you lose 30 units from lay bet, and you win 28.58 units from back bet; again, 1.42 units net loss. So, you were able to trade out when you saw that match does not develop as you expected, and instead of losing 30 units, you lost only 1.24 units. Let's say that you laid the draw, at odds of 3.00, with stake of 10 units, so liability is 20 units. The goalkeeper has bad day, so there is a goal minutes into the match, and it sends draw odds to 8.00. Now, you back the draw, with stake of 3.75 units, for possible profit of 26.25 units. If match does not end in draw, you win 10 units from lay bet, and lose 3.75 units from back bet; net profit 6.25 units. If bad keep team manages to claw back to the draw, you lose 20 units from lay bet, and you win 26.25 units from back bet; net profit again 6.25 units. Thus, you were able to lock in profit after first goal, regardless of how the match will develop further. That example is known as "lay the draw" strategy; once profitable, it is worn out nowadays, and it is not easy to take profit from that. This works the same way if you first place the back bet - you need subsequently to place lay bet, or you can trade more than once during the same match - place more than one back bet or lay bet at different odds; if back odds are higher than lay odds, you make profit, otherwise, you make loss. Stakes above are calculated using formula: Back stake * Back odds = Lay stake * Lay odds and it does not incorporate comission at betting exchange, you need to deduct it from your winnings; Betfair has 7% basic commission. Now, bookmakers started offering "cash out" option, which is very similar to this trading, as long as your bet still has the ability to win. Once it is losing, of course they won't offer you possibility to decrease your losing stake. Hope it was understandable... Good luck with your trading!
  15. Hey, @Xtc12, have you found this? The ones at Soccerstats do not seem user-friendly, and Footystats is paid service. I had stats for streak since last draw, but streak since last goalless draw seems interesting, so I decided to add it to my stats (for 12 leagues I follow). For example: Here are streaks for England Premier; these stats are in column "N0D", "Not drawn 0-0 ". Here is the specific match, Liverpool vs Man United in this case, streaks are at very bottom. And here are general 0-0 stats for entire league - Under 0.5 goals is effectivelly 0-0 draw.
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