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Everything posted by froment

  1. Back in the day, there was a site WhatIfOdds, which did exactly what you described; it had boxes for each minute of the match, and shown change of odds throughout the match; you tick the minute box when a goal is scored, and it gives you updated odds after that goal. Beautiful site, that unfortunatelly went down, and I have not seen anything similar ever since. In absence of the app, the best solution I can think about is to monitor "adjacent" market; let me explain it for goal lines, it is easier. Let's say result is 0-0, and odds are as follows: Over 0.5 goals 1.10 Ov
  2. From his stats, 45 won, 83 lost, average odds 3.00, it is around 7 units profit at 1 unit stakes, ROI 5.5%. It is not bad result, but sample is way toooooo small to say if he really cracked something or it's just beginner's luck. Another 9 matches losing streak would have wiped that entire profit.
  3. When you say "preview", what do you mean, textual description and prediction, or statistics? For the former, PuntersLounge still has very good write up for a fair number of football matches, and other sports, too, especially tennis. Personally, I don't pay too much attention to them, as I am also statistics junkie. I used various sites over the time, the favourite one TipsterArea.com, and then there are other good ones, such as BTFStats.com, SoccerWay.com (it also has textual preview), FootStats.co.uk, FootCharts.co.uk, SofaScore.com... However, I also like to have raw data on my dis
  4. Actually, I made a mistake - 3 out of 12 is indeed 220, not 180 as I said, it was 3 out of 10... 😳
  5. Neither do I... 🙃 I mean, it is some kind of "shortened system" - as he says above, instead of wagering total of 84 and 220 trebles, one wagers 21 and 32 trebles, thus significantly saving on stakes, with guaranteed winners IF you win one match from each group. Though, a little bit of elaboration would have helped. Also, I don't ger where 220 trebles for second system comes from - 3 out of 12 makes 180 combinations, not 220?
  6. Any intention to explain what is it?
  7. Hi, Benfika guy, nice to see you decided to post! As for your question, I'm a bit late for the show, but I see it's not busy, so let me try anyway. At lay odds of 2.92, and asuming commission of 5%, you need strike rate, or accuracy as you call it, of 66.9% to break even. Hence, if you get only 65% of your picks correct, it's a losing system, and I believe that no staking system in the world can turn a losing system into a winning one. That is, not counting so-called Parrondo paradox, but I doubt your strategy relies onto that. It especially applies to "chasing loses", which yo
  8. Hi, Suproni, to the forum! Check CGMBet software by @giraldi here: I believe you can easily extract historical data with these criteria you mentioned, to backtest your system.
  9. This time luck was on your side, Ruzomberok went from 0-2 to 2-2 literally with the final whistle! Nice start to the day, you secured profit. Good luck with your venture!
  10. Can you tell me, please, how does it come Asian on 6.5 line? I thought Asian always had push option, and there's no push with 6.5 line, it's either won or lost, no push, correct?
  11. This is the shocking news, I didn't know anyhting about his situation, so sad to hear this... I did not know him personally either, but in times when I was regular here, he was always friendly and supportive guy. Certainly terrible days for his family, hope they will manage through that.
  12. If you cared to read, you'd have noticed CGMBet is not prediction site/program at all.
  13. Hello, Hurco; welcome to the forum! Your question is not silly; while they say that people are born with natural ability to swim, and then they lose that ability within first weeks of life, I highly doubt we are born with natural knowledge of betting exchanges, so some of us have to ask it sooner or later. I mean, all of us in this forum had such a question. With your example, there is indeed not difference between exchange and "normal bet platform". However, betting exchnage offers you a possibility to trade your bets: to place the opposite bet before the event ended, so you lock i
  14. Hey, @Xtc12, have you found this? The ones at Soccerstats do not seem user-friendly, and Footystats is paid service. I had stats for streak since last draw, but streak since last goalless draw seems interesting, so I decided to add it to my stats (for 12 leagues I follow). For example: Here are streaks for England Premier; these stats are in column "N0D", "Not drawn 0-0 ". Here is the specific match, Liverpool vs Man United in this case, streaks are at very bottom. And here are general 0-0 stats for entire league - Under 0.5 goals is effectivelly 0-0 draw.
  15. You can get somewhat better payout by laying at Betfair. At the moment, you can lay Liverpool at 2.30; if you're on 7% commission, you should stake 3,305 £, for liability of 4,297 £. If Liverpool wins, you win those 7,371, and lose 4,297, net 3,074; and if Liverpool fails to win, you get that stake, 3,305, or again 3,074 after commission. You can play with the stake, of course, so to make one or other outcome pays more or less, depending on how confident you are about Liverpool winning.
  16. You're right. Though, I referred to one of commandments to betting: bet only with money that you can afford to lose, and I had in mind recreational bettors, not professional ones whose main occupation/source of income is gambling. If I lose money that I planned to go to pub with friends, no big deal, both are entertainment; if I lose money that I planned to pay the bills, that's issue.
  17. Maybe it is bad idea, but it's certainly nice idea, I enjoy crumbling numbers, especially when you have a vast source of statistcis, similar to one created by poster above, Giraldi, check site in his signature to see what is next level statistics. And I think it's valid as long as you see betting as entertainment and not source of living. As for your article, I can hardly take seriously people who play "football" using hands, and who christened actual football as "soccer". Why not checking native British expert, Joe Buchdachl, he has several amusing books on that topic, and you can find n
  18. Your observation is totally correct, you are absolutely right! You only need to pay a bit of attention to your words that I emphasized above. If you check, you will see for yourself that odds for under 5.5 if one goal is scored at HT, and under 4.5 if no goals at HT, are barely 1.05 or even less. And if you check this year games, not a dozen of today games, but thousands of this year games, you will find that usually 5 out of 100 such a matches go over 5.5 or over 4.5. So, if you bet 100 units each time, you will win 5 units 95 times, add or take two or three times, and lose 100 units 5 t
  19. Interesting discussion, but I'm afraid it will never have a definite answer, it is highly subjective matter, everyone has opinion and believes it is right. 1. This all goes to personal skills on how to estimate the value and calculate your own odds... and bit of luck during the match itself; I remember few matches where one team had like 70% or 80% ball possesion and 20 shots on goal vs 2 shots on goal by their oponent, yet the oponent endured all attacks and materialized one of those two shots to win match 1-0, despite being completely outplayed. Take as an example West Bromw
  20. @rootsrunner I have checked again, and it works for me again. But then, I uploaded file to OneDrive, and I got similar issue as you did - some weird dates in column A. So I would say this is definitely something about cells formatting, something makes your Excel and Excel at OneDrive to recognize wrong date; I don't know what, I don't use Excel at Onedrive, so I cannot bother to investigate it now. Though, when I formatted entire column A as number, it worked again, with exception that actual date is wrong - it recognizes "6. October 2019" as "19. October"; it doesn't affect rendering of
  21. Hi, rootsrunner; sory for delayed answer, I'm not visiting forum regulary. Column C in your screenshot is not wrong, it should contain True/False statements, to decide which cell in column A contains the date, which is beginning of new row, and in column G you can see it identified rows properly - new rows of ELO ratings at PuntersLounge start in Excel rows 11, 20, 29 and 38 - the ones that contain date "29 Sep". Now, why rows 23 and 27 contain this input "Mai 50" and "Jan 67", I have no clue; it might be some regional settings in your Excel, or it might be that rating at PL was some
  22. I share scepticism of Harry Rag above, but I'm surprised to see odds in 3 out of 10 matches are above evens, didn't expect it in matches where one team has that clear difference in stats, I don't get it. This might work with additional odds screening, I'd say.
  23. Hello, Mocas, welcome to the forum, and good luck with exchanges! Answer to both of your questions is yes, it would work as you explained, Betfair matches your money at best available odds at the moment. I say Betfair, I don't know for other exchanges. The same applies to the other side - if you place lay bet at odds of 3.80, and odds of 3.76 appear in the meantime, your bet will get matched at better odds, 3.76, in amount of money available at those odds.
  24. If you believe you have an edge in finding those games, then simply lay correct score 1-0 and 0-1, it's easier.
  25. Thanks for feedback! Yes, it is possible, but what is criteria for a selection? I have updated the spreadsheet, available in the same link above; it now has two additional columns, for last 4 and last 2 matches. You enter desired value, i.e., range of ELO ratings in sheet "Settings", and if difference in ratings fits into those values, it suggests home, draw or away team. Is that what you had in your mind?
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