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This is probably the trickiest Grand Slam we've had to deal with so far in terms of conditions, because this is very different from having some rainy weeks. It's also hard to know how good the air qua

Gauff/Mcnally to beat Shibahara/Aoyama at 1.64 with Marathonbet I repeat with Gauff/Mcnally. The first time these Japanese players played together was 6 months before in San Jose where they reach

WTA Australian Open S Hsieh / B Strycova - T Babos / K Mladenovic 2@1.81 pinnacle /flat 10u/ I thought I am done with AO, but this one is simply too good. Babos/Mladenovic are the best pair for

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Not until it's complete. Also, I want to wait for the updated weather, they are apparently considering playing a lot of matches indoors, could turn out to be a very stupid tournament if things go wrong. Should've been postponed long ago. The only thing that I'm not afraid of putting out there is Jessica Pegula to beat Taylor Townsend at 1.58 with PinnaclePegula is just better in every single regard currently.

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Must admit I'm also wary of what the tournament will bring. The conditions are usually difficult enough due to heat and humidity but whilst you can get an idea of which players struggle and thrive in conditions like that due to previous performances, who knows how different players will react to poor air quality. Logic says that they'll all struggle, but if some struggle less than others that could definitely lead to some strange results. Anyway, it's going ahead so let's see what happens but personally I'll be treading very carefully during the first few days and probably during the tournament in general.

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This is probably the trickiest Grand Slam we've had to deal with so far in terms of conditions, because this is very different from having some rainy weeks. It's also hard to know how good the air quality is going to be in advance, because there are a lot of factors affecting that. I've also read that the umpires will be able to stop play pretty much indefinitely once the air quality becomes unbearable, although how exactly that is going to work is anyone's guess, because I'm sure that they are going to be pushed to the limit in that regard so as not to delay the tournament unnecessarily (well, unnecessarily for the organizers, that is). The world's elite and a few other lucky players are very likely to be shielded from most of the burden thanks to the three roofs the Australian Open comes with and I'm actually not all that surprised that Federer isn't against playing anymore, since he was likely notified that he's going to get all the right scheduling again, as is very likely to happen with Nadal, Djokovic, Barty, etc. as well.

So what are we to make out of all this? Well, I've ran through the quarters a couple of times and, right now, pretty much the only bet that I'm considering is Barty to win her quarter, because she's been seriously impressive this week and as I'm sure that the organizers are going to do everything in order to increase her chances. So yeah, let's actually stick that out there - Ashleigh Barty to win the 1st quarter at 3.00 with Bet365 - the other strong players in her quarter are Kvitova (who might have serious physical issues) and Keys, while the rest shouldn't be too difficult honestly.

As for the matches, I think that one has to be somewhat cautious and I honestly reckon that the best strategy to make a profit is to stay up all night, watch as many matches and possible, see how the players are coping with the conditions and bet accordingly. I stand by the Pegula bet that I've posted above, as she really is better than Townsend and as, let's face it, Townsend is the likelier of the two to seriously struggle if heat or bad air shows up. In general, you also have to be very wary of players that haven't played in any events so far or that haven't really performed in them, which is why I also very much like Cori Gauff (-2.5) to beat Venus Williams at 1.93 with Pinnacle. If I remember correctly, Venus withdrew from one of the early events due to some health issues and she has some chronic problems as well, so, unless nerves get to her, Gauff should prevail. I also like Shuai Zhang (-2.5) to beat Sloane Stephens at 1.88 with Pinnacle, because the two are going in different directions at the moment and because Sloane just isn't worth backing unless she's focused and on some sort of a run. She has the right skills for beating everyone, but she's just terrible when off and Zhang has the weapons to put her off and a 5-2 season record to boot. I really am focused too much on women and favorites and this might cost me, but what can I do when I don't see anything else? I'll also be backing three straight set victories on that front, Tamara Zidansek (-1.5 sets) to beat Han Na-Lae at 2.02 with Pinnacle, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to beat Nina Stojanovic 2-0 at 1.80 with Bet365 and Magda Linette (-1.5 sets) to beat Arantxa Rus at 1.85 with Pinnacle. Those are some serious mismatches at the moment as far I see things, especially Zidansek and Pavs. Finally, in terms of qualifiers, I can't ignore Lauren Davis (-3.5) to beat Annie Leylah Fernandez at 1.71 with local and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to beat Norbert Gombos at 1.62 with local.

That's what I have so far and I'm looking forward to everyone else's suggestions!

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Alja Tomljanovic 2.10 to beat Anastasija Sevastova Bet365

Reasons:

Home crowd support, a good lead up to the first major with preparation games v Halep, Sharapova, Pliskova and Putintseva

Sevastova leads 2-0 h2h but both in Mallorca on grass. Has been a bit average at end of 2019 and continued with 2 losses in lead up games to the Open to similar players to Tomljanovic (Kenin, Vekic)

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Ricardas Berankis to beat Roberto Carballes Baena || 1.66 @ OLYBET ||

Both guys met before two times on hard surface.  2018 Challenger in Brest Ricardas beat him 6:2 6:2, and the other one, not that long ago he lost in Moscow 2:6 6:4 3:6 Kind of surprise, because Roberto basically playing very bad on hardcourt. Thoughout his pro carrer he played 39 singles and doubles finals and none of them has been played on hard. Also he never won in the first round in AO. The only time he won back in 2017 qualification 2nd round.  

Ricardas will play his 9th time here in Australia, 2011 and 2013 was years when he got to the 3rd round.  Overall this is succesfull Grand Slam for him comparing to others. So maybe he has a tricky offseason, but he loves to play hardcourts and should get though here! GL 👍 

 

Edited by fizrukas
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New to this Forum

Im a pro tipster

Aussie Open will occur as follows:

Mens Seni will be nadal vs medvedev

Mens Semi will be Novak vs denis shapovalov

The big upset will be first round defeat of halep to the American brady

Ugo Humbert will also win first round, but later Federer will beat him then deniis beats federer

gauff isn't yet due to win her maiden slam cos youngest will always remain with maria, but give it a few years

Best to bet on "quarter bet" accumulators with dennis, brady and either Svitolina/pliskov a( the latter two will compete for semi place)

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Guys what you think about Benoit Paire vs Cedrik-Marcel Stebe?! I am considering some bet on Benoit handicaps,  if anyone has some info about it please let me know.  Frenchmen looks like very unpredictable,  but he has some momentum going on and i think that he can have some great tournament.  

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16 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Set handicap maybe? The issue with games handicaps there is that he can easily drop a set 6-1 if he decides to not care for a while.

Absolutely. That would be ben-wah all over if it happened.

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Hi! I have been out for a long time but this is a Grand Slam so here I am again. 

Corentin Moutet to beat Marin Cilic at 2.62 with bet365

Cilic’s bad form still goes on. 0 finals played in 2019 and now out of the Top 30. He also left bad feelings in the ATP Cup so I can see an early bye from him here. The young talented Frenchman comes here with confidence. He did Final in his previous tournament (Doha) beating there Andrej Martin, Popyrin, Sandgren, Raonic, Verdasco and Wawrinka. He lost the Final against the very in-form Rublev.

Giles Simon to beat (-1,5 Sets) Pablo Cuevas at 1.85 with 888

Cuevas is another player in a very bad form. His performance in the ATP Cup was pathetic. He lost against Nishioka (6-0, 6-1), Nadal (6-2, 6-1) and Basilashvili in 3 sets. He was destroyed in his last match by Tommy Paul (6-1, 6-2) after beating Opelka (5-7, 7-6, 7-6). Im not worried for that win considering that was against Opelka. Simon is not in his best moment but his game and results in the last months are clearly better so I expect Simon to win this with the handicap.

Yoshihito Nishioka to beat (-1,5 Sets) Laslo Djere at 1.76 with 888

Nishioka played very well in the ATP Cup beating Cuevas and Basilashvili in straight sets and putting Nadal in some troubles despite losing the match. Djere has a bad record on hard courts so I expect Nishioka who is clearly the better hard court player here to take this 3-0 or 3-1.

Reilly Opelka vs Fabio Fognini Over 3.5 Sets at 1.51 with Marathonbet

Nothing much to say here. I can’t imagine this match being won in straight sets. These players faced each other in the US Open (Opelka won 3-1). 

I have to take a hard look to the women draw and let see what can I take from there.
 

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13 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

This is probably the trickiest Grand Slam we've had to deal with so far in terms of conditions, because this is very different from having some rainy weeks. It's also hard to know how good the air quality is going to be in advance, because there are a lot of factors affecting that. I've also read that the umpires will be able to stop play pretty much indefinitely once the air quality becomes unbearable, although how exactly that is going to work is anyone's guess, because I'm sure that they are going to be pushed to the limit in that regard so as not to delay the tournament unnecessarily (well, unnecessarily for the organizers, that is). The world's elite and a few other lucky players are very likely to be shielded from most of the burden thanks to the three roofs the Australian Open comes with and I'm actually not all that surprised that Federer isn't against playing anymore, since he was likely notified that he's going to get all the right scheduling again, as is very likely to happen with Nadal, Djokovic, Barty, etc. as well.

So what are we to make out of all this? Well, I've ran through the quarters a couple of times and, right now, pretty much the only bet that I'm considering is Barty to win her quarter, because she's been seriously impressive this week and as I'm sure that the organizers are going to do everything in order to increase her chances. So yeah, let's actually stick that out there - Ashleigh Barty to win the 1st quarter at 3.00 with Bet365 - the other strong players in her quarter are Kvitova (who might have serious physical issues) and Keys, while the rest shouldn't be too difficult honestly.

As for the matches, I think that one has to be somewhat cautious and I honestly reckon that the best strategy to make a profit is to stay up all night, watch as many matches and possible, see how the players are coping with the conditions and bet accordingly. I stand by the Pegula bet that I've posted above, as she really is better than Townsend and as, let's face it, Townsend is the likelier of the two to seriously struggle if heat or bad air shows up. In general, you also have to be very wary of players that haven't played in any events so far or that haven't really performed in them, which is why I also very much like Cori Gauff (-2.5) to beat Venus Williams at 1.93 with PinnacleIf I remember correctly, Venus withdrew from one of the early events due to some health issues and she has some chronic problems as well, so, unless nerves get to her, Gauff should prevail. I also like Shuai Zhang (-2.5) to beat Sloane Stephens at 1.88 with Pinnaclebecause the two are going in different directions at the moment and because Sloane just isn't worth backing unless she's focused and on some sort of a run. She has the right skills for beating everyone, but she's just terrible when off and Zhang has the weapons to put her off and a 5-2 season record to boot. I really am focused too much on women and favorites and this might cost me, but what can I do when I don't see anything else? I'll also be backing three straight set victories on that front, Tamara Zidansek (-1.5 sets) to beat Han Na-Lae at 2.02 with Pinnacle, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to beat Nina Stojanovic 2-0 at 1.80 with Bet365 and Magda Linette (-1.5 sets) to beat Arantxa Rus at 1.85 with PinnacleThose are some serious mismatches at the moment as far I see things, especially Zidansek and Pavs. Finally, in terms of qualifiers, I can't ignore Lauren Davis (-3.5) to beat Annie Leylah Fernandez at 1.71 with local and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to beat Norbert Gombos at 1.62 with local.

That's what I have so far and I'm looking forward to everyone else's suggestions!

Czech, any the same analys in mens tournament? :) you are doing great job! 

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@CzechPunter All the time i have been active you were always on profit and we have gain a lot of money because of you so I'm sure that we will have a very profitable tournament!

I edit this post to add a couple of bets more.

Ons Jabeur to beat Johanna Johanna Konta at 2.52 with Marathonbet

Konta has been all the year with knee problems. After her match against Svitolina in the US Open she decided to end her season. She played her first match since then in Brisbane where she lost against Strycova in a 3 set match. Jabeur has win 3 matches in Hobart (Ninomiya, Brengle and Blinkova, all of them in straight sets). She finally lost against Muguruza in a 3 set match (6-3, 3-6, 6-7). Considering that Konta is absolutely far away from her best form I think Jabeur can take this.

Jennifer Brady to beat (+1.5 Sets) Simona Halep at 1.75 with 888

This won’t be an easy match for Halep. Brady played very well in Brisbane where she won against Sharapova and Barty. Halep is not in her best form.

There are a lot of interesting bets posted for the women draw so there is nothing much more to add. 
 

Edited by darko08
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Hey guys, especially to the Czech punter (also Czech ;) )

New to this forum. The first rounds of slams are always tricky, especially the Aussie Open as there aren’t many result to base your opinion and I personally don’t like odds of 1.1 or 1.2. I have found a few matches, which seem interesting to me.

1. Osaka - Bouzkova: over 19.5 games at 2.3 SN/RZ or 10Bet 

2. Pera - Rybakina: Rybakina at 1.58 Marathon bet (min 1.53)

3. Edmund - Lajovic: Edmund at 1.67 Betway (min 1.61)

4. Querrey - Coric: Querrey at 2.20 Paddy Power/William Hill/888sport and others (min 2.1)

5. Kanepi - Krejcikova: Krejcikova at 2.20 at William Hill

 

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Australian Open 1th round matches

½ amount on RUBLEV-2.5sets HANDICAP OVER O’CONNELL @ 1.62 pinnacle / betfair sportsbook
½ amount on RUBLEV-7.5games HANDICAP OVER O’CONNELL @ 1.78 pinnacle / betfair sportsbook
Rublev in a great form winning Doha and Adelaide. Should have no problems againast a local wild-card player.


½ amount on SAKKARI-1.5sets HANDICAP OVER  GASPARYAN @ 2 pinnacle
½ amount on SAKKARI-4games HANDICAP OVER GASPARYAN @ 1.82 pinnacle
Sakkari is just a better player, much more consistent than an erratic Gasparyan, who is also out-of-form lately.



 

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13 hours ago, Jves said:

Hey guys, especially to the Czech punter (also Czech ;) )

New to this forum. The first rounds of slams are always tricky, especially the Aussie Open as there aren’t many result to base your opinion and I personally don’t like odds of 1.1 or 1.2. I have found a few matches, which seem interesting to me.

1. Osaka - Bouzkova: over 19.5 games at 2.3 SN/RZ or 10Bet 

2. Pera - Rybakina: Rybakina at 1.58 Marathon bet (min 1.53)

3. Edmund - Lajovic: Edmund at 1.67 Betway (min 1.61)

4. Querrey - Coric: Querrey at 2.20 Paddy Power/William Hill/888sport and others (min 2.1)

5. Kanepi - Krejcikova: Krejcikova at 2.20 at William Hill

 

Welcome @Jves! Why do you think Edmund is gonna win against Lajovic? Lajovic played very well in the ATP Cup. He won against Harris, Felix, Khachanov.. Im asking you because Lajovic was another bet i had in my mind. 

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Great price on Nikoloz. I think he comes into this tournament healthy and refreshed from last season. We are talking about a top quality player vs Kwon who I believe was struggling with injury late last season, and form is not good so far in 2020 as well. It's going to be very difficult to take 3 sets from Nikoloz here.. But I have weird questions about the air quality from the fires, so I'm second guessing all of my bets... There looks to be alot of live dogs out there.. tough trying to nail one. I don't think Kenin is in top form, but that doesn't mean she can't beat Trevisan.  I do however think that Trevisan is playing the best tennis of her career from the footage I saw of her in qualies. I am seeing Nikoloz win this match in 3 or 4 sets completed.. Anything else will be a shocker because I believe he will take the first set as well. 

Nikoloz Basilashvilli to beat SoonWoo Kwon @ odds -175 with William Hill

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Does anyone have an opinion on the Cuevas - Simon match ? I think Cuevas is fit, and he's losing 0-3 to Simon h2h.. Should provide ample motivation to finish here.. Maybe I'm thinking crazy, and but I think Cuevas is going to have the stronger serve, and be just as fit as Simon on the court. I think the groundgame will be a wash but the serving edge should allow Cuevas to advance.. The odds are really kind of juicy on this one. I've got the match rated as 55/45 in favor of cuevas with the true odds being set around Cuevas -125. I think the actual listed price for bettors should be Cuevas odds 2.15 for a fair line. 😎 gl all, and nice to see u again @darko08. Its clear this is a pivotable point in the season for making money, and mistakes cannot be made at this juncture. 

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34 minutes ago, money44 said:

Does anyone have an opinion on the Cuevas - Simon match ? I think Cuevas is fit, and he's losing 0-3 to Simon h2h.. Should provide ample motivation to finish here.. Maybe I'm thinking crazy, and but I think Cuevas is going to have the stronger serve, and be just as fit as Simon on the court. I think the groundgame will be a wash but the serving edge should allow Cuevas to advance.. The odds are really kind of juicy on this one. I've got the match rated as 55/45 in favor of cuevas with the true odds being set around Cuevas -125. I think the actual listed price for bettors should be Cuevas odds 2.15 for a fair line. 😎 gl all, and nice to see u again @darko08. Its clear this is a pivotable point in the season for making money, and mistakes cannot be made at this juncture. 

Cuevas is not really a hardcourt player and he got smashed in the ATP Cup so I'd think that Simon has the definite advantage here.

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1 hour ago, money44 said:

Does anyone have an opinion on the Cuevas - Simon match ? I think Cuevas is fit, and he's losing 0-3 to Simon h2h.. Should provide ample motivation to finish here.. Maybe I'm thinking crazy, and but I think Cuevas is going to have the stronger serve, and be just as fit as Simon on the court. I think the groundgame will be a wash but the serving edge should allow Cuevas to advance.. The odds are really kind of juicy on this one. I've got the match rated as 55/45 in favor of cuevas with the true odds being set around Cuevas -125. I think the actual listed price for bettors should be Cuevas odds 2.15 for a fair line. 😎 gl all, and nice to see u again @darko08. Its clear this is a pivotable point in the season for making money, and mistakes cannot be made at this juncture. 

Hi @money44 ! Thanks buddy! Nice to see you again!. Well, I have a posted a bet for this match and there's my opinion about that. 

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ok right I see it now darko .. thanks for your input guys .. really appreciate it... I still see some value on Cuevas, but I'm going to be as careful as possible betting on him because it seems like I might be the only here that thinks that. 

Martina Trevisan to beat Kenin @ 6.5 with William Hill (100% stake)

I just believe there is some doubts with the current fitness level of Kenin. She is being bullied by Collins recently, which I understand. But, this is just as much a bet on Trevisan's current form as the question marks I have with Kenin. So, at these odds.. I feel there is some value. I think there is atleast a 25% chance that Trevisan wins this one. 

Jill Teichmann to beat Alexandrova @ 6.5 with William Hill. (50% Insurance stake)

Teichmann is a young talented player, and its hard to determine where her level will be.  I am suspicious that Alexandrova could be a little bit tired from her great tournament in Shengzen. Definitely not superconfident with this one.  Its relaly only being bet to insure the top play for which I was going to bet 150% stake.  So now there is some double chance to win money with this format. 

 

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