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Tennis Tips - 2019 Off-Season

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  • 4 weeks later...

Alright guys, the 2019 tennis season is more or less officially over, so it's time for a fairly long review of what happened.

On the sporting side of things, I think that we had a fairly intriguing season. I am, of course, hugely disappointed that we don't have any new Grand Slam winners, with Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal splitting all four titles evenly, but Daniil Medvedev came agonizingly close in the US Open and I think that the final there was actually the match of the year for me. I reckon that some of you will claim that the Wimbledon finals were the real thing, but I unfortunately didn't actually get to see that one, so I have no idea about what actually happened apart from the scoreboard changes. I did get to watch Nadal-Medvedev in the middle of the night while a storm was raging outside, however, so yeah, that was an interesting experience :D.

The second ATP story of the year that I'd like to highlight here was Murray's comeback, as I was genuinely convinced that he wouldn't be able to do much after his loss against.....er...I think it was Viola. He did grab a title afterwards in style, however, and I think that he might do even more in 2020. It's hard to say how much he can do in the physically-more-demanding Grand Slams, but he should be very dangerous everywhere else.

As far as the WTA is concerned, well, it's still a mess, isn't it? And I think that we have Clijsters or someone coming back next year as well, which is honestly just crazy - if she's going to make it, it really is going to speak volumes about the difference between ATP and WTA, I really can't imagine that we'd have Radek Stepanek or someone making a singles comeback in the same vein :D. The Grand Slams were obviously quite exciting with the Williams story and with seven different players occupying those eight final places, which is just really good for the game imo. It's great to have Bianca coming up, but I'm really sad that Marketa Vondrousova is yet another of those great talents trapped in awfully frail bodies. I'm getting Djokovic vibes whenever I see her play for some reason, but, well, she's currently after a surgery and we haven't see her since Wimbledon, so I'm not sure what the state of affairs is going to be next year.

On the forum side of things, the activity has picked up quite a bit in comparison with the previous season and we now have a nice mix of regulars and newcomers, so I'm really hoping that we are going to continue in the same fashion once the Australian Open starts. The passion always goes down a bit after the US Open and that is understandable, but I'd like to see all the guys here again in January. I'm not even going to name anyone, as I'm sure that I'd miss someone! In any case, I didn't even have to ban all that many people in 2019, which is just excellent!

And, finally, the betting side of things. While I was hoping to get to the lower levels of the competition, I didn't get to that for all sorts of reasons, so there were no easy pickings to be found anywhere. I'm hoping to get to exploring that area next year, especially if everything is still going to be so difficult on the main tours, but that's not for now, that's for later - and January is going to be all about the main tour anyway. Results-wise, I'm happy to say that 2019 was another profitable year, although I must admit that it wasn't as great as I was hoping it to be. Overall, it appears that I managed to place a grand total of 292 bets and that I ended with a decent ROI of 103%. I know that many people are still actively debating what ROI is achievable long term, but it's really hard for me to contribute to that, as it really depends on a great many of factors. I'm certainly guilty of being a bit overactive, which leads to some bad bets here and there, and I'm also guilty of not trying to exploit ITFs and Challengers as often as possible. I am going to try to change that if given a chance - and should lead to at least somewhat better results.

So, on that note, I hope that you are all going to have a great off-season, Christmas, etc., and I hope that we are all going to meet here either at the end of December or at least for the start of the Australian Open (January 20). I thank you all for being here and contributing!

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  • 3 weeks later...

I'm usually shooting for something like 10+ season-long bets, here is what I've come up with so far. Unfortunately, it seems that the bookies are a bit scared by the long term markets this time around for some reason, so this is all with Unibet - if you find a good range somewhere, let me know and I'm going to take a look through it (and I really mean this)!

Top 50 - ATP Singles Ranking as of 30 November 2020 - Hyeon Chung - Yes at 1.85 with Unibet

Chung was obviously missing from action last year and that's why his ranking dropped so much, but he recovered well when he came back and I think that he's now ready to roll again. I don't know what's there to say honestly, I think that this one is only about fitness and the signs are that it should hold.

Top 70 - ATP Singles Ranking as of 30 November 2020 - Cameron Norrie - Yes at 1.88 with Unibet

I backed Cameron Norrie to do well in 2019 and I'm going to back him to do well in 2020 yet again, as he really matured as a player and as he is now an established guy that rarely fails to deliver. Sure, he might not have enough talent to make it to the really top spots, but he has what it takes to get a good run in major tournaments and even win one or two smaller ones, so he should have every chance to finish within top 70, if not even higher.

Top 80 - ATP Singles Ranking as of 30 November 2020 - Vasek Pospisil - Yes at 1.73 with Unibet

The Davis Cup that took place in November was interesting for all sorts of reasons, but the one man that stood out apart from Nadal was Vasek Pospisil. The Canadian had to go through all sorts of issues in recent times, but he seems to be on the up at the moment and he seems to be up for the singles again as well, so I think that we are going to see him go places in 2020. Besides, the top 80 line is so low that even one good GS run can be enough for it to be easily covered and I have no doubts that Pospisil can produce such a run.

Top 80 - ATP Singles Ranking as of 30 November 2020 - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Yes at 1.96 with Unibet

Top 100 - ATP Singles Ranking as of 30 November 2020 - Hugo Dellien - Yes at 2.08 with Unibet

I'm going to group these guys together, as the reasoning is pretty similar. Both played mainly in Challengers in 2019 and managed to finish quite up there in the rankings, so they should be both aiming to play the main events almost exclusively in 2020 - and they are both good enough to crush these lines talent-wise. There are some natural doubts about how they can compete outside clay, but Dellien looked amazing in Basel and Fokina just needs more prep, which he should be able to get in the off-season with some decent coaching.

Top 50 - WTA Singles Ranking as of 9 November 2020 - Rebecca Peterson - Yes at 1.88 with Unibet

Peterson's name might not be on anyone's list, but she's surprisingly consistent and still quite young, so I actually wouldn't be surprised to see her go again in 2020. She finished 44th in 2019 despite winning just three matches on the Grand Slam level, which is a really good achievement imo and one that shows that she just needs that little bit of experience to perhaps break through. The fact that she won two really good events in China at the end of the 2019 season should boost her confidence as well.

Top 70 - WTA Singles Ranking as of 9 November 2020 - Marie Bouzkova - Yes at 1.88 with Unibet

Honestly, this is the bet that I like the most from the entire list, as Bouzkova could easily finish much higher. She's tremendously talented and she's been working hard in the off-season from what I know, so I have no idea why she shouldn't deliver, fitness-permitting. I reckon that she's still flying under the radar for many, but she's a genuine gem imo.

Top 80 - WTA Singles Ranking as of 9 November 2020 - Laura Siegemund - Yes at 2.10 with Unibet

Laura Siegemund had to go through a long recovery process after a bad injury and she's not the youngest anymore, so this is somewhat risky on that account, but I don't see her giving up after a fairly promising 2019. She was top 30 for a good reason and she managed to beat many decent names in 2019, while the top 80 line can get smashed with just a single good GS run - and she has enough experience to get one if luck is on her side draw-wise.

Top 90 - WTA Singles Ranking as of 9 November 2020 - Jil Belen Teichmann - Yes at 1.96 with Unibet

Top 120 - WTA Singles Ranking as of 9 November 2020 - Jessica Pegula - Yes at 1.88 with Unibet

Finally, I'm also going to back two talented players in Teichmann and Pegula. I'm not quite sure whether they have what it takes to be really good in the long run, although Teichmann might be, but what made me go for these bets are the lines, which really are low given what Teichmann and Pegula are capable of here and there. Pegula was playing very little in 2019 and finished 83th despite all that, so there you go.

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On 12/17/2019 at 8:33 PM, CzechPunter said:

Yep, I was just about to post that. Apparently, the guys that match the description are Matteo Berrettini, Diego Schwartzman, Benoit Paire, Nikoloz Basilashvili, and Alex de Minaur.

how do you come to that selection mate? just wondering.

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