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.............also worth adding that when the inevitable day arrives when getting the first three winners at big prices then the bonus for all correct ( assuming at least 10% ) won't be included either in the bookmakers cash out calculation , so making the offer seem even less worthless , based on that TE information.

615 Fairy SOUTH SHORE ISLAND has the profile of a horse improving and has the 3 lb allowance today to help .....surely has to run well ..only .danger is kings thistle I can see 5 PT win 9/4

Yes useful that TE as it proves conclusively that the software used for cashing out calculations is based purely on it being a simple yankee with 4 single wins , so even double odds aren't included in the calculation as is evident with your example.

Reading different contributions on what has definitely been a useful thread, it seems obvious to me that there are still some that can't tell the difference between a good bet that loses and a bad bet that wins. And in that difference can be found those that can make a go of betting and those that can't.

I'm still of the view that you should not cash out or lay on the exchanges. Although laying is a less expensive option I believe you will still be worse off.

Won Profit: +£55 Month: -£125

Can be useful in footy where you've backed a player (or included them in a bet builder) and they're not starting. With some firms it gives you the option to cash out and get your stake back as opposed to letting the bet run and stand if they come on as a sub (potentially too late for your bet to remain attractive at the price taken),

Rating the current dozen in the betting at this stage you would have missed out on 3 winners over the last 12 seasons. i am 7 from 17 in the arc and the ground is everything, shit deep and you get whoppers. You can mark up your selections if they either won or started favourite in the Prix Neil or the Prix Foy.

We lost just the one, The joker was available, too... 5 players through to next GW

Hamilton 14.58 £20 The Dragon King @6/4 William Hill

3.40 Sedgefield: Lord Accord @ 11/4 (Bet365)

The arc is only a couple of weeks away so I rated the current dozen top in betting and it came out as these few best rated Sosie. 648 Look de vega 649 Shin emperor. 675 Los Angeles. 686 Delius. 616 Al riffa 641 Bluestocking 706 I know a few people like this race especially @Zilzalian...on my ratings... bluestocking looks a fantastic value bet at 12/1 .....is this on your radar ???? Plus am I right would receive 3 lb from the males ? Rossa Ryan seems to think she will go there with a serious chance so it's caught my eye ....especially on good soft to soft ground ..mind you I'm not even sure is Def in ??....might have to be supplemented ....but if she is I can see the odds tumbling

To save my typing fingers i would say of all this discussion this @harry_rag summary is about right 99% of the time. If in any doubt never cash out is my only addition to this.

Or that margins are tight and that cashing out or laying can take that margin away.

5.45 Fairyhouse - REBEL DIAMOND 12/1 eway bet365 .

Goo luck. I considered the btts angle but was a little deterred by them having only just started scoring (drawn a blank in 6 out of 8 games overall). 25% boost not as tempting as 50% but gone for Coughlan to score, Graydon score or assist and 2+ away cards at 6/1. Also done the Coughlan brace at 18.5 on the exchange. A bet at anything over 11/1 for me.

Fleetwood and both teams to score for me at 4.33 with MGM. It's hard to look past Fleetwood what with Morecambe's form, but they can get on the scoresheet.

Placed +£40 -£38 day 14

Reckon this thread has been brilliant for lots of reasons but mostly because i think we've all agreed the best course of action when the time comes , with the options of letting the bet exhaust , wait until the last leg and use the exchange for for hedging. Unless i've missed something the general concensus is to choose the personal choice above that's appropriate but bookmaker cashing out should never be considered a viable option.

No problem with that. 'Cashing out' on the exchanges is completely different to cashing out with a bookie.

Result: The Dragon King 2nd. Lost £20 September profit to date £11.53

@harry_rag your the football man i reckon. What about this. M'city, Chelsea, Newc, A Villa, Liverpool, Arsenal all to win (yes i know Newc void) Acca was 1/1 was just thinking how interesting the C/O would be after 5 winners, thats apart from thinking what piss poor odds that is for 6 winners, your the stats man how often would/has all six won? or in other words how often has the shock result occurred? This is why i never bet on the footie anymore.

You're quite right, the required bet would be to back Forest or lay Brighton in the double chance market (i.e. lay the same bet I'd backed). Similar outcome though one might be better than the other allowing for rounding. I make it a fiver on Forest to win at 16.5 more or less locks in a £70 quid profit so, as you say, the cash out looks a lot more sickly in that light.

Wolverhampton 6.30 ZENO £20 win BSP

Have patience with me as i'm a non soccer follower for either betting or viewing , had to google the odds and opposition 😀 Looking at the scenario you didn't take , laying Brighton , wasn't that not like for like as you only needed win/draw so as it was a draw you'd have collected twice for a double whammy. The like for like comparison would have been to back NF at presumably pretty big odds as a full cover option , so that would make the cash out offer not as generous as it first seemed. Is that fair comment or have i wrongly interpreted , if so it does beg another question as to whether concessions vs boosts are treated differently by the cash out software.

That's short-term gain for long-term pain unfortunately, as I showed in a worked example earlier in the thread. It's that thought process, along with the loss aversion @MCLARKE mentioned which it ties in with, that sees the bookies lining their pockets. I don't have any data to back it up, but I'd be surprised if cash-out offers don't give the bookie an even bigger margin than the 'normal' bets that they take. And that's before bonuses being removed if you cash-out which makes it even worse.

we're straight back into the PC tomorrow. All getting a bit "samey" now with the big boys winning these more often but I'll go with these lot. Van Veen 40/1 Menzies 40/1 Nijman 50/1 ----------------------------- De Decker 150/1 Clemens 150/1 J.Williams 175/1 Wattimena 200/1

Bluestocking would have to be supplemented and it'll cost 120,000 Euros !

I could cash out for 49p before my last selection ran. I already had a winner at 9/2, meaning I would receive 73p even if the next horse lost because of the triple payout on a single bet. Hence, to cash out would have been a bad idea. I just thought I would flag it up on your thread, as it seemed worthwhile pointing out.

Ham 148 Retirement Beckons 12/1 £10 ew. bet365.

1 pt win Time Patrol 14/1 William Hill 4.25 Wolverhampton

Day 14 3.45 listowel Fairy wings 25/1 £10 e/w bet365

Day 207 -£46.59

6.45 Fairyhouse: Jackie Brown @ 25/1 E/W (BetVictor)

Thanks @fd1972uk @MinellaWorksop Great win for Horschel Rai placed top 10 for a small payout as well

Most winners @Quartu SE stretches his lead to 3 winners

Good win for my dad. Rai did grt himself in there. Better return for Dad. Well done horschel backers.

well done harry both won just your freebie to come in

I'll also take the same bet with the same firm about Lewandowski for Barcelona. Slightly lesser price at 8.00, but worth a go.

There definitely is. A 96 second goal from Linfield would be my preference

Lost. 2nd. &. 8th

As part of my continuing quest to disprove the maxim that you can't lose with a 50% boost on your side I've gone for Welbeck and Wood to score and Brighton win or draw at 15/1 for an interest in the early prem game.

Any semi-finalist v the other would have beenb a good match up. Hard lines @sirspread and @Wanderlust. Look out for you guys in a future final. Happy punting in the final for this week's victors - @mickyftm32 and @LeMale

Just realised I forgot to include the odds for my double today, below again: Southampton vs Ipswich (X) 3.60 Aston Villa (1) 1.60

Aston Villa @ 1.60 Athletic Bilbao @ 1.70 Union Berlin @ 2.10 All two-word team treble for 25 points

Aston Villa please 👍 Note to self : You are allowed to use a 🃏 in the main competition rather than to be put into this consolation every season without playing it 😕

Agree to a large degree as written but you can never say never and be certain you mean it. If for example the banker was in a generous or defeatist mood in DOND and you had the 1p vs £250k left and he offered £100k instead of the mathematical £125k how many would consider it , the vast majority would take it i'd say. Part of the reason to justify the decision for me would be the fact id argue the first £100k matters an awful lot more than the latter £150k regarding getting what you want or going some way to changing your life , it's the same winning one or two million imo in that the first million means everything to most but the 2nd million would probably hardly ever be used , also all this depends on the age of contestant. On the above example i've no idea what i'd do until the time came but i'd still remain primarily a let it run punter. Think this thread by Harry has been really useful and highlighted a few positives vs negatives but the general consensus is very much to avoid bookmaker cash outs unless it's a needs must decision that's unavoidable.

I'm with you @Mrjol. However, loss aversion is a cognitive bias that describes why, for individuals, the pain of losing is psychologically twice as powerful as the pleasure of gaining. The bookies have obviously latched on to this bias. On this basis we should cash out every time.

Never cash out, no no no never. Wish you could turn it off