Leaderboard

Morning everyone, hope you all have a lucky day punting 🙂 Just the one for me so far today... 1705 Kempton Stockpyle 9/2 2pt win Due to go up 2lbs, ran well LTO and I think providing this doesn't come too soon it has a great chance. Good luck if you follow 💷

J.Harrington 2/2 at Limerick this season . 6.00 Gangster Granny 6/1 bet365 . 3rd 17/2 6.30 September Leaves 9/4 bet365 . 1st 11/8 👍

💥✅️💷 Lovely winner, 11pts returned 🙂

Bet 1. £10. Germany v Scotland...Germany @ 1.3 Bet 365. Just hoping to go through the tournament without a losing bet.

Result: Five Winds 1st. Won £20 June Profit £170

Well done to Dan who won leg 1 for the second month running . Can he repeat the feat in the rematch tonight, NLHE wth 3000 chips starting at 8.10pm. Don't forget we only count best 3 scores over the month so if you missed or failed miserably last week it doesn't need to affect your chances of the added value.

50% strike rate ! ok, small sample size .......... 😉

Karolina Pliskova to beat Heather Watson at 1.50 with Bet365 Pliskova is obviously far from the player she once was, but Watson is more of a part-time player nowadays, and her results are mediocre at best. Pliskova seems to be targeting this part of the season as well, so there should be at least some will to fight there too.

So the stats so far this season are 46pts stakes and 48.5pts returned so just in profit. We are about half way through the season and all remaining meetings are on Sunday's.

Hi All, We've been nominated in two categories for the Smart Betting Club Awards. I'm honoured to have been nominated in the best free horse racing tipster category (up against some real industry heavyweights) whilst the Punters Lounge has been nominated for the best sporting website. If you could spend a couple of minutes to vote for us that would be much appreciated. https://t.co/mr9Trh0o7Z

Any competition for Euro2024?

All done.

Done 👍

Done. Feel free to use the “other” option to nominate as your favourite free sports tipster!

Done

Have you looked at royal ascots over these years and if so do they rate/return the same or similar for all your criteria?

Regarding the generic email replies, you sometimes get a better response using the live chat option if that is available (and if you can type reasonably quickly!) as you can persist and rephrase your question with the handler if they don't grasp what you mean.

Today's top rated Hamilton 7.50 SACRED FALLS

Some stat packs broken down by group.. (competitive matches v current FIFA Top 100 since 09/20)

New Members 425 Posted just now Here's a Team by Team grid of prices from my model (some prices my vary from original post due to re-running the sim) ...and 1 single simulation to show the affect of randomness on a tournament (for those unfamiliar with models basically I do this 5,000 and record the result, and by I I mean Excel 😂)

6.40 Kempton Drama @14's bet365

hi harry i'm starting to look forward to the tournament. I feel that an outsider could make the semi finals and was thinking maybe austria ukraine or hungary. I've ended up having small ew bets on ukraine and hungary at 100 and 125. Portugal will be interesting as they have a great squad but for me a weak manager who may pander to ronaldo. For Ronaldo i think his performance is more important to him than the team and if he starts he will slow the play and could upset the dressing room.

Shame I couldn't get the early 3 figure odds for top goalscorer (to 5 places) but he's short enough in that market now. I saw 2/1 for him to score 2 or more (Sky Bet I think) which seems fair at the very worst. I've taken 50/1 e/w for Fernandes Golden Boot. Was interested at 66/1, the 5th place now being available at 50s just enough to tempt me in. I've also taken Szoboszlai at 200/1 e/w to 5 places. Hungary dark horses for many, form looks decent and the place return really sells this one for me.

artem dovbyk buy total goals at 1.3 sporting index Dovbyk top scored in la liga 24 in 36, he takes penalties also and ukraine should qualify (probably in second). i think england are dreadful value with a poor manager and lots of questions to answer: only 1 left back selected who is injured, who to partner rice? kane carrying a back injury, how to get the best out of foden, can he find a place for palmer? who partners stones and is stones fit?

YTD -£35.60 X Schauffele £1 win.Missed the 14/1 with bet victor earlier this week but got 11/1 plus 25 percent bonus (makes it 13.75/1) with B365. Probably will have another look after the 1st and 2nd round.

Solar Acclaim 6 40 Kem/ 1/40th of a pt ew 50/1

230 Y Hey Big Spender 22/1 EW. Back in trip and not a lot to go on but the fact Haggas won this race for the last two years ( 2 from 2 ). Last year's winner was 14/1.

A 6/4 Winner (S.P 11/8) from 3 bets yesterday.. Today's Selections: 14.43 Fontwell Paddy De Pole (7/4 Vic) 15.13 Fontwell Call Off The Dogs (85/40 Vic) 16.00 Yarmouth Magic Memories (6/4 Fred) Sel/Wins: 51/11 Strike: 21.56% P/L - 16.38 Pts

One more bet for this event, on the 'Top Amateur' market which always fascinates me to see how they get on rubbing shoulders with the pro's. Gone with: Neal Shipley 14/1 1/5 odds, 3 places, Bet365 Quite surprised he was this price bearing in mind he made the cut at this year's Masters and none of the others in this field had anything near like that form shown this calendar year.

4.43 Fontwell Beat The Heat 14/1 William Hill

Morning @Outofluck, These firms are so stringent nowadays I'm afraid that I can't see a way around your problem bar getting some form of photo ID.

Most of my input comes from the spread prices. I've long since realised, though, that you can't just use the midpoint in every market or you'll get put away with what you take as the fair odds. Most markets have a bias towards more buyers than sellers so their take on the true value tends to be closer to the sell price. Sometimes it's considerably lower than the sell price. The more volatile the market the more adjustment you need to make. Crunching your own numbers (and doing it well) will probably give you better input but doing what I do certainly gives me a better edge than anyone just looking at basic stats and using their subjective opinion.

Yeah the maths is always a starting point for me, worth remembering tho that any algorithm is only as good as the numbers you plug in and perhaps more importantly football isn't played on spreadsheets 😂

Your approach to pricing up fair odds very similar to mine. It illustrates well why most of these type of bet are poor value. The number looks big at first glance but punters have no idea how to price it up. Once in a while you might take 125/1 about something that should be less than 100/1 but more often than not it should be 200/1+. This one could go either way depending on what inputs you use for expected goals and header %. Ronaldo has scored nearly 40% of Portugal's goals over the last 6 Euros/WC (though his age is a factor in whether that can be maintained). His headed goal % for Portugal is actually quite poor though. Happy enough with it for £2 worth of interest but can't make a really strong case for it being demonstrably a value price.

My plan was to have some form of bet on every team so I'd have an interest in every game without betting on every match, going to have a good look at the groups tomorrow, so far only done a few outrights and some spreads. Outright 2pts - Spain to win Euro 2024 @ 9/1 (feel like whether or not they top or come 2nd in the group they'll have a decent draw - wouldn't put anybody off Italy either) 1pt - Netherlands to win Euro 2024 @ 18/1 0.5pts - Austria to win Euro 2024 @ 80/1 (10 of probable starting XI play in the German Bundesliga, only the GK who doesn't but he's played in the Europa Conference, 4-5 players from Bayern/ Dortmund/ Leipzig who played in the Champions League - gutted they've ended up in a group with France and Netherlands or this would be a stronger fancy) Name the Finalists 0.25pts - France v Netherlands @ 33/1 0.25pts - Germany v Spain @ 40/1 0.25pts - Italy v Spain @ 40/1 0.25pts - Germany v Netherlands @ 50/1 0.25pts - Netherlands v Spain @ 66/1 Highest Scoring team 0.5pts - Germany @ 9/2 Lowest Scoring Team 0.5pts - Georgia @ 9/1 I've learned from previous tournaments that I don't need to go to heavy on the Outrights before a ball has been kicked, I'm happy to let games play out, update my ratings and run my model every day and see the lay of the land. The draw is so important for me Whilst you'll notice from my tissue I'm generally pessimistic when it comes to England, I'm going to avoid backing any negative England result as I don't really want to be cheering against them!

Tried to place a small ante post bet 5 selections with the online bookie (you can bet every day) just 10p stakes bet made 20k if successful min stake is 10p I exceeded max so pressed button new stakes £:00 thanks can't have a penny on account closed!!!!