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1608 Thirsk Noisy Music 9/4 2pt win

My plan was to have some form of bet on every team so I'd have an interest in every game without betting on every match, going to have a good look at the groups tomorrow, so far only done a few outrights and some spreads. Outright 2pts - Spain to win Euro 2024 @ 9/1 (feel like whether or not they top or come 2nd in the group they'll have a decent draw - wouldn't put anybody off Italy either) 1pt - Netherlands to win Euro 2024 @ 18/1 0.5pts - Austria to win Euro 2024 @ 80/1 (10 of probable starting XI play in the German Bundesliga, only the GK who doesn't but he's played in the Europa Conference, 4-5 players from Bayern/ Dortmund/ Leipzig who played in the Champions League - gutted they've ended up in a group with France and Netherlands or this would be a stronger fancy) Name the Finalists 0.25pts - France v Netherlands @ 33/1 0.25pts - Germany v Spain @ 40/1 0.25pts - Italy v Spain @ 40/1 0.25pts - Germany v Netherlands @ 50/1 0.25pts - Netherlands v Spain @ 66/1 Highest Scoring team 0.5pts - Germany @ 9/2 Lowest Scoring Team 0.5pts - Georgia @ 9/1 I've learned from previous tournaments that I don't need to go to heavy on the Outrights before a ball has been kicked, I'm happy to let games play out, update my ratings and run my model every day and see the lay of the land. The draw is so important for me Whilst you'll notice from my tissue I'm generally pessimistic when it comes to England, I'm going to avoid backing any negative England result as I don't really want to be cheering against them!

Added in Group Exact Finishing Order to my model...

From earlier in week

cannot sleep so been looking for at all the 100/1 shots for the euros to paly for small stakes this is the one i picked Cristiano Ronaldo & Romelu Lukaku Each To Score Over 1 Header 100/1WH Cristiano Ronaldo 145. As he does with most things, Cristiano Ronaldo tops the list of most headed goals scored in football history Romelu Lukaku has scored some goals with his head

It is not a tipping site, this is a free naps / most winners / cup competition. Everybody is free to choose whatever selection they wish, short odds or long odds. It takes me 10 seconds to find the shortest horse.

Tennis is such a strange game. Rybakina you can kind of understand. She is not a clay court player. Great serve and forehand, but her movement (on clay) is below average. She does not get the 1st ball setup that she does on grass or hard court. When she runs for a wide ball, she can't slide, so there is little chance she gets positioned for the next ball that comes back. But some players are just great athletes and really poor in the mental/strategy parts of the game. Hurkacz, Auger-Aliasimme, Zverev, Rublev, Paul, Taifoe, Sakkari, Garcia ... and Andreeva. She is only 17 and will learn, but a 17 year old with skills and mental fortitude ... like Monica Seles is a generational talent..

Won. BSP 12.0 71 from 280, LSP 70.62

Better a 2/7 winner than a 11/8 loser !

Haydock 1.50 Just eight go here for this listed Achilles Stakes run over the minimum trip of 5F. Roger Teal’s Live In The Dream stands out and this represents a drop in class for the five year old who’s contested Group ones and two’s on his last four outings winning the Group 1 Nunthorpe at 28/1 last August at York. He ran very well on his seasonal re-appearance on ground that wouldn’t have suited and with conditions more in his favour here and having officially 6lb and upwards in hand of his field it will be a shock were he not to get himself back into the winners enclosure. George Boughey’s Believing may be the one to chase him home but this should be an easy victory for Sean Kirrane’s mount. LIVE IN THE DREAM 2 points win @ Evens bet365 Beverley 2.05 A big field for one of the two class 2 two year old contests today with fifteen juveniles declaring for this Hilary Needler Trophy run over the minimum trip of 5F. With the stalls on the inside it usually pays to be drawn in the low stalls and the selection has bagged stall 4. Tom Clover’s Over Spiced stepped forward for her Brighton fourth on her debut when leading a furlong out and sticking on to win by half a length in a Leicester maiden. That form looks relatively good now with both the runner up and third winning since and in an open looking race looks the each way pick under Joanna Mason who was on board last time. Adrian Nicholls’s Maw Lam made a winning debut from the re-opposing Mademoiselle and is drawn on the far rail in stall 1 but will need to get away quicker than she did that day or she could get cut off from the others. OVER SPICED 1 point each way @ 17/2 BetVictor 1/5th 1234 Haydock 2.25 A nine runner 1M 4F class 2 handicap is up next in which several can be given chances. Charlie Hills’s Maghlaak sports first time blinkers and could be interesting if forgetting his latest modest effort whilst David O’Meara’s Iron Lion could run well though like Maghlaak has to put a poor recent run behind him. One horse who arrives in good form is the Rae Guest trained filly Divina Grace who started the season well with a fine third at Goodwood a fortnight ago to Ayaad. Sure to have benefited from that run, her first for 230 days, she looks the pick here with Callum Shepherd taking over from Darragh Keenan. DIVINA GRACE 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet3651/5th 123 Beverley 2.40 Only six go to post for the latest renewal of the class 2 Two Year Old Trophy with the most intriguing runner in the race (and on the card) is the Wathnan Racing owned, Karl Burke trained newcomer Shareholder. Costing $62,000 as a yearling he must of breezed exceptionally well at the Arqana Breeze Up’s in France as he was bought for 460,000 euros by his wealthy owners only seven months later. James Doyle rides as the retained owner’s jockey and could, as they say, be anything. You can’t beat experience though so I will l take him on with the Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood trained Regal Gem who had his debut victory won over a furlong out when scoring at Pontefract a fortnight ago over 6F. He’s dropping back to the minimum trip under David Nolan and with improvement likely looks a value bet with the Richard Fahey trained Moving Force another to enter the equation following his course and distance victory 25 days ago for his very much in form yard. REGAL GEM 1 point win @ 9/2 BetVictor Haydock 3.00 The first of two Group 3’s on Haydock’s card today is the 1m 4F Lester Piggott Fillies’ Stakes which has attracted a bumper field of fourteen. William Haggas has won the last two renewals (three from the last five years) which is not surprisingly as his wife Maureen is the daughter of the legend Lester Piggott. He saddles an interesting runner here in the shape of the seasonal debutant Sea Theme who won two of her fours starts as a three year old at Doncaster and the listed Galtres Stakes at York. She will have to be part of the staking plan but the main bet will be with the Charlie Appleby trained four year old Sapphire Seas who won four on the bounce last season culminating in a listed success at Yarmouth in September. Runner up in a Group 2 at Meydan in February she contested a better race than this on her latest start when fourth of five in the Group 2 Middleton Stakes at York’s Dante meeting behind Bluestocking. She steps up a furlong and a half today which should suit and with a saver on Sea Theme looks the bet. SAPPHIRE SEAS 1 point each way @ 13/2 coral 1/5th 1234 SEA THEME 1/2 point each way @ 6/1 Coral 1/5th 1234 Beverley 3.15 A wide open class 4 7F 96 yard handicap completes the trio of races covered by the ITV cameras today at the Yorkshire track and has attracted a maximum field of sixteen. It has a wide open look about it although my two against the field are Michael & David Easterby’s Eligible ridden by Joanna Mason who found trouble in running when a 4 1/2L seventh to Riot at York last time and following a 2lb drop in the weights finds himself on a mark on the same mark as when he last won on the turf at York a year ago with the other one that interests me being the Craig Lidster trained Billyb. He too ran well in a big field York handicap last time, his first for 273 days and first for Lidster, when finishing fifth (beaten 3 1/4L) to Feel The Need and like Eligible is now back on a winning handicap mark. Slight preference of the pair would be for the former but both are worth backing to small stakes each way in a wide open modest handicap. ELIGIBLE 1 point each way @ 17/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345 BILLYB 1 point each way @ 10/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345 Haydock 3.35 A dozen go to post for this Group 3 John Of Gaunt Stakes run over 7F. Officially there’s only 11lb between the field on ratings and several hold chances. The winners of the last two year’s are back to challenge for honours in the shape of Pogo and Jumby who both have each way claims. Charlie Appleby’s Noble Dynasty is stepping out of handicap company with his latest victory at Newmarket already boosted by the runner up English Oak bolting up since. He’s a player alongside Richard Fahey’s Ramazon who is the selection here. Fahey is in an unbelievable run of form at present and anything he saddles has to be given the upmost respect at present. Ramazon has finished runner up on his last four starts with his latest silver medal coming in the Victoria Cup at Ascot with the re-opposing Bless Him, Popmaster and Jumby behind and apparently held. He is two from two at the track and deserves to get his head in front with his yard in such superb form. RAMAZON 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 123

Give up on British racing so going to France Lyon Parilly for my fancies 1542 Wodka Lemon 1617 Sekku 1727 Perfect Hedges 1802 Dreams 1938 Lucky You

think this might have a squeak of landing Bruno Fernandes, Phil Foden & Rodri Each To Score Over 1 Goal WH 14/1 how foden been playing this year he must have chances to score rodri as harry said was tip somewhere and i do think fernandes may get some chances to score as for england i cannot see why they are favourite to win i see only WH giving this market first time winner yes 5/4 and no 4/7 The sixteen Euros tournaments have been won by ten national teams: Germany and Spain have each won three titles, Italy and France have won two titles, and the Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia, the Netherlands, Denmark, Greece and Portugal have won one title each. so if you think england are going to win at 5/4 you have 14 other teams with you just in case there is a shock coming as when greece won it i would like to be on 8 teams that won it pity the prices were not the other way around good luck what ever your doing

I like the look of Over 140 goals at 7/4 with Bet365, Skybet go Evens 141+ which is the same bet, I make it the Skybet price in 100% - no notes anywhere mentioning no extra time so I'm hoping it's all in

Acorn Stakes, Saratoga 1140 Leslie's Rose 9/1 ew. bet365. 2nd.

well skybet is into 8/11 hope you were on at even harry rag

1405 Beverley Maw Lam 5/1 1.5pts e/w This was info on debut and it won for us at 14s and I fancy it to get the job done again.

Market Rasen 3:18 pm Copper Fox 7/1 4: 50 pm Cofficionado 7/1 Clonmel 6:20 pebble bleu 9/1 8:30 Gillians voyage 11/1 Lucky 15 E/W

735 good never dream 18/1 ew bet365

Although not won after just one round, you can definitely lose a tournament with a bad start. So it was good to see all our players make decent respectable starts Hovland, Fleetwood at 3 under. Tom Kim at 2 under. Hodges at 1 under and Si Woo Kim at even par. Preferably they can kick on and carry that momentum throughout the tournament. 🤞

I think in the 2 semi finals today the bookmakers have the wrong favorite both times. For me, very little between Sinner and Alcaraz. But I do think SInner has more maturity. Maybe Alcaraz has more talent but he is a rougher diamond (that still needs work). If Sinner is injury free, I think he wins here. Physically, neither has had a tough road to the semi-final. Alcaraz had 3 easy matches and Sinner probably 4. I think Ruud is a terrible matchup for Zverev. They actually play a similar baseline game, but last year Ruud beat him 6-3 6-4 6-0, and demolished him in the 3rd set. Zverev simply had no idea what to do. He just stuck to a losing strategy even though it was obvious it was flawed. It tells you that he has no ability to solve the 'in game' problem ... there is no plan 'B'. Has Zverev added much to his game? I don't think so. He still struggles when forced off the baseline, and his decision making in those touch/cat and mouse situations is not great. His transition game is poor and that is the area that Ruud should/will take advantage of. Today the analytics of each opponent are substaintial. The tactics for Ruud will be clear and obvious here (get him off the baseline) and I'll be very surprised if Ruud does not come with a super solid tactical plan. Then add to this that Ruud has had a few days rest (which is gold), having got the walkover v Djokovic. To get the opportunity to reset and recharge, and possibly take care of a minor niggle, in the middle of a 2 week tournament is huge.

3.00 hay Night sparkle 8.7 6/1 Starry heavens 8.5 16/1 5pt wins both ....Ew doubles both above races

I made a silly mistake and put Postic Force instead of Poetic Force - one letter wrong , hope that i wont be penalized for that.

Has been confirmed and pounded into 5/1 .....looks like the gamble is on !!

That's above my remit mate! I'm still just coming to terms with this whole subscription idea from Oddschecker. I get it but it's a tough pill to swallow for a lot of us that can claim to have contributed to them getting to where they are now. A bit of a slap in the face to the users.

Team Odds BF SX GF GA FIFA Euro R World R Group G Ave GA% Prank Portugal 9 9.2 37 9.55 4.9 1748.1 4 6 F 1520 115.02 1 Czech Rep 176 310 12.5 4.8 6.05 1501.5 17 36 F 1520 98.79 6 Turkey 81 140 14.5 5.15 5.85 1495.9 19 40 F 1520 98.43 2 Georgia 751 810 4 2.75 6.45 1333.8 24 75 F 1520 87.76 5 Last and least (in terms of average FIFA ranking) it's group F. Portugal with more apparent daylight between themselves and the other 3 teams than any other group favourite. First take has to be that they top the group and Georgia tail it with the other two teams fighting it out for 2nd and 3rd. Turkey are the only team where the market rates them higher than FIFA in the group hierarchy and I'd be inclined to side with the market on that one.

Team Odds BF SX GF GA FIFA Euro R World R Group G Ave GA% Prank Belgium 23 25 28 8.55 5.15 1795.2 2 3 E 1573 114.09 2 Ukraine 101 120 13.5 5.05 5.65 1568.9 12 22 E 1573 99.71 5 Romania 301 330 8 3.8 6.05 1468.2 20 46 E 1573 93.31 5 Slovakia 501 890 7 3.7 6.25 1461.6 21 48 E 1573 92.89 2 Joint 4th strongest group overall, level with group A and with F the only weaker group. Belgium have the second easiest group of all the favourites (on this metric) with only Portugal looking more of a shoo-in. Ukraine and Romania being 5th weakest 2nd and 3rd ranked teams illustrates the point. Ukraine look a bit clear of the other two who are ranked quite closely. If you gave me a free bet to use I'd probably stick it on the Belgium/Ukraine straight forecast at 11/4 but it's not a group I've got any "real money" views on at this stage. (Worth saying I'm not totally convinced that Belgium quite merit being ranked as the 3rd best team in the world and 2nd best in Europe.) I'm on Lukaku e/w at 28/1 in the top scorer market (20s best now) and, with a bit of luck, the place money will be pretty much banked by the end of the group stage.

Team Odds BF SX GF GA FIFA Euro R World R Group G Ave GA% Prank France 5 5.3 45 10.75 5 1840.6 1 2 D 1667 110.39 4 Netherlands 19 21 24 6.75 5.85 1742.3 5 7 D 1667 104.50 2 Austria 81 100 13.5 4.8 6.45 1554.8 13 25 D 1667 93.25 6 Poland 251 280 7 3.4 6.65 1531.5 15 28 D 1667 91.86 3 Group D has the highest average ranking but it feels like a group of 2 halves. France are only the 4th strongest favourite and they sit smack in the middle of the "hard" groups (Germany and Spain) and the "easy" ones (England, Portugal and Belgium). The Dutch are the "second best second best" but Austria look the weakest 3rd team and Poland are no great shakes. Anything can happen with only 3 games to play but it should be a case of France and the Netherlands going through with the other two scrapping it out for 3rd place. 15/8 for the "obvious" straight forecast and 10/11 the dual don't seem bad prices.

Team Odds BF SX GF GA FIFA Euro R World R Group G Ave GA% Prank England 4 4 47.5 11 4.7 1794.9 3 4 C 1585 113.25 3 Denmark 51 65 17.5 5.45 5.85 1602.7 11 21 C 1585 101.12 4 Serbia 126 240 14.5 4.9 6.15 1514.2 16 33 C 1585 95.54 4 Slovenia 501 870 6 2.95 6.45 1427.9 22 57 C 1585 90.09 4 One more group for today and it's England's. It has the 3rd highest average FIFA ranking and England are the 3rd strongest favourite based on how much stronger than they are compared to the group average. Only Portugal and Belgium have slightly easier groups by that measure. All other teams are ranked as 4th best for their position in the group. My gut feel on this group is that it would be unsurprising if it finished up in the forecast order. That said, I could make a case for Denmark to top the group at 5/1 not being bad given that they're only around a 13/8 shot to avoid defeat against England. Maybe a perm of a few decent group 2nd favourites to finish top would be a viable bet (said the man trying to limit his antepost bets)!

Team Odds BF SX GF GA FIFA Euro R World R Group G Ave GA% Prank Spain 10 10.5 35 9.05 5.05 1727.5 6 8 B 1637 105.52 5 Italy 17 19 26 7.25 5.45 1724.6 7 9 B 1637 105.35 1 Croatia 41 55 17.5 5.45 5.95 1721.1 8 10 B 1637 105.13 1 Albania 501 810 3 2.15 6.75 1375.1 23 66 B 1637 84.00 6 If you want a "group of death" cliche then it's probably group B! 1637 is the highest group average FIFA ranking bar group D. Obviously there's not much between the top 3, the only blessing is that they've got the weakest "worst" team in the group. Given Germany's home advantage that probably makes Spain the least clear favourite in any group with the 2 toughest teams in behind them. I'm not sure I'd want to back Spain at odds on to top the group and this is a group where the team that finishes 3rd will be disappointed not to progress. That said, 2 tough games and 1 "easy" one isn't necessarily the best recipe for finishing up as a best 3rd placed team.

Team Odds BF SX GF GA FIFA Euro R World R Group G Ave GA% Prank Germany 6.5 6.6 42 10.5 4.5 1644.2 9 16 A 1573 104.55 6 Switzerland 81 150 13.5 5.05 6.05 1616.4 10 19 A 1573 102.79 3 Hungary 126 130 9.5 4 6.35 1532.2 14 26 A 1573 97.43 3 Scotland 176 240 8 3.6 6.45 1497.5 18 39 A 1573 95.23 1 A slightly random assortment of numbers but it's where I'm up to (prices taken midweek)! So Germany were a best bookies price of 6.5 and 6.6 on the exchange. Based on the midpoint of their prices, SX had them rated at 42 on the outright index and expect them to score 10.5 goals and conced 4.5. Their FIFA ranking puts them at 16 in the World and 9th in Europe. The group average ranking is joint 4th with group E with only F coming in lower. With Germany's ranking only being 104.55% of the group average that makes them the weakest group favourite on that metric. Scotland come in as the strongest of the "worst" teams in the group with the other two teams being 3rd best in their positions. Germany shouldn't have too much trouble getting out of the group (or topping it) but it's a reminder that they haven't been gifted the easiest of groups. Switzerland are reasonably clear second best but all of the teams have a reasonable chance of qualifying. Barring Scotland at 11/10 with one firm no-one is odds against to go through.

Pissing it down now at saratoga Last few big meetings I've bet keeps going sloppy

All in pre for 40 bigs, guess the river card ? Oh how we laughed...