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She is 17 so inconsistency isn't a surprise - although so many of the players are inconsistent regardless of age - and as you say it's a huge match with a place in the final on the line so there's nerves to deal with as well. Paolini as the older player and with so many years on tour and all the experiences she's had is possibly better equipped to deal with the occasion. It's interesting to see that both Swiatek and Paolini won and kept unforced errors to a minimum. It's such an important part of the game and gives such an edge when it comes to getting wins. It's like a high first serve percentage - it increases your chances of winning a point and in the longer run a match so much.

AW selection Chelmsford 8.45 ORBITAL

Won. BSP 12.0 71 from 280, LSP 70.62

Beat me to it - just

17yr old after such a big win.

Has been confirmed and pounded into 5/1 .....looks like the gamble is on !!

4.30 Hamilton-Bashful Been on my radar for a while, today looks the day 7-2 with Paddy Power

In the interests of balance you see that kind of thing plenty of times in the ATP also.

I've added a few more variables to my analysis Going variance, @The Brigadier's key factor. The numbers do back this up with an AE of 1.04 when the horse is running on the same going. In the 5 year period there were 3,460 winners from 24,431 runners with a profit of 870 points. Distance variance. Not as important as the going variance. Horses running over the same distance show a loss of 1,746 points with an AE of 1.01. Horses stepping down in trip have a good record with 2,100 wins from 14,852 runs with a profit 0f 664 points. The AE is 1.08. Horses stepping up in trip by more than 1 furlong have a poor record with 270 wins from 2,575 runs and a loss of 720 points. The AE is 0.86. Weight variance. The ideal is for the horse to be carrying the same weight or up to 9 pounds higher. 5,473 from 37,411, LSP 907. AE 1.05.

6.55 Ripon Cash In 50/1 Bet365 EW

7.15 Kempton: North View @ 16/1 E/W (Bet365)

Result: Divine Breath 1st. Won £32.50 June Loss £3.50

Agree. Bagels and breadsticks most likely. Might get a decent price for that though so there might be something worth taking.

The women's final is bound to be a letdown though, I can't see Paolini doing much.

When I calculate the LSP I take into account the 2% Betfair commission, so in effect I need an AE of approx. 1.02 to breakeven. Even then it could show a big loss / gain dependant on the odds of the selections. For my personal tend to calculate PL based on proportial stakes rather than level stakes, these results are much close to AE. However I post results on here as LSP as that is what most people use / understand.

Result Leopardstown 19:30 Glor Tire .... 1st(11/8F) Todays Profit = +13.75 pts Current Years Profit 2024 = + 76.69 pts Bank = + 2073.6 pts.  Profit = + 1973.6 pts. Current Winning Run =1

Complete implosion from Andreeva.. I wonder has the big occasion gotten to her? She's playing even worse than Rybakina did yesterday. Paolini playing solid but nothing remarkable but Andreeva just hasn't showed up at all, particularly in this second set, could be a breadstick at this rate. 😕

It's pretty much a coin toss really, just that Mbappe's not the worst player to be on if assists come into play. That said, "top scorer" guarantees you a return if there's a tie for most goals whereas Golden Boot goes to assists to find a winner. If there's a tie you can guarantee there will be moans from people who get nothing back on one player because they bet in the GB market and from those who get a partial return on the other because they bet on TS!

Frustrating to be so close. On the plus side, if Paolini doesn't win then it's irrelevant. But then like you just said, you know she'll win now.

Women’s tennis 💩 lol

Haydock 3:05 The good biscuit. 7/2 3:35 Grace Angel 7/1 4:40 Forever blue 5/2 Uttoxeter 4:18 Edison Kent 6/1 E/W Lucky 15

I have NO big hopes about this one, but who knows!

I wouldn't say that. Paolini is no mug having won a 1000 earlier in the year and I'm not sure I'd have Andreeva as the favourite so I can see the appeal. Swiatek should be winning without too much fuss because the only style that can trouble her is power - like Osaka showed or Sabalenka - and Guaff is not a big hitter. The bakery set score is the riskiest for me, despite the price, because as much as Gauff is at a disadvantage in these conditions I'm not sure I see a blowout. The sets were reasonably close the last time they played.

I'd probably lay him if he was as short as 5/2, brilliant as he is. Given that he'll need to score at least 5, probably 6, goals to be clear winner that would be too short. You'd have bad luck in front of goal, injury or him (and France) having a stinker on your side. 5/1 looks about right to me. Not big enough for me to back him but certainly in the zone for being a reasonable bet if you fancy him. How have you backed him out of interest, top goalscorer or Golden Boot? Here's the biennial reminder of the difference between markets. Golden Boot is an official award decided by most goals, then assists, then least minutes played. There can only be one winner. Top goalscorer means most goals so could end in a two (or three plus) way deadheat. If your fancy gets quite a lot of assists then GB might be best, if they rarely get any then TS might be preferable. If in doubt maybe split your stake! Best price should be the first criteria but be aware of which market you're betting on. All firms are just listed as top scorer on Oddschecker but at least Sky Bet, Paddy and the Exchange are Golden Boot. The latter worth bearing in mind if you end up in a potential laying off position.

out-there bets I suppose but I'm going with the following today : 2pts Paolini to win & Swiatek to win 2-0 and each set 6-0/6-1/6-2 or 6-3 double 7/2 Paddypower 2.5pts Swiatek to win set 1 6-0 or 6-1 23/10 Paddypower

Surprised Mbappe is as big as 5/1 to top score, thought he'd be half that. Toughish group maybe? Backed him at the WC and there's no Messi to make it interesting this time. No doubt they will beat us in the Semi's if we make it that far. Good bet for me at 5's.

It's amazing with Djoko. He was out on his feet against Musetti. Has a tablet from his bag and a sip from that little white plastic cylinder and he's as good (actually better) as new. Against Cerundolo he was done and dusted in the 4th set. At 4-3 2 sets up Cerundolo comes to the net and makes a simple volley into the open court to be 30:15 up. Djoko is motionless on the other side of the court. Yet an hour and and 15 minutes later Djoko looks as fresh as a daisy (again see him sip from that little white cylinder). At age 37 his 'recovery' is off the charts, a complete outlier... Could Djoko possibly be the Lance Armstrong of tennis? What was the quote from Eddy Merx on the tour de France? Was something like ... "Nobody goes up Alpe d'Huez on a cup of tea and a biscuit"

Swiatek - 1.5 sets @1.52 Pinnacle 👍 Paolini - Andreeva over 2.5 sets @2.37 Pinnacle 👎 Krawczyk/Skupski @1.65 Pinnacle 👎 Tsitsipas/Tsitsipas @4.48 Pinnacle 👎 Tsitsipas /Tsitsipas over 2.5 sets @2.65 Marathonbet 👎 Yesterday 4 - 2, RG over all 17-7. GL you all.

He (Šeško) will for sure score against us (Serbia)..every team score against Serbia..for fun..we can't keep clean sheet against any opponent.

Either that or the other suggestion was the time of the month. Regardless, she's another who can spray UE's like confetti and who's had problems with getting serves in. And she's the second best player in the world.

apparently, Sabalenka had some kind of sickness bug? could be an excuse, who knows?

Better a 2/7 winner than a 11/8 loser !

Won

True of course but it shows that there's still room for improvement at the top level. Eventually someone's going to come along who doesn't make the mistakes and loses most of their points via winners from the opponent. A player like that would clean up.

Or she could go and lose her serve the very next game! 🤣 Womens' tennis ftw!!! 😁😆

Curragh 8.00 - Ice Cold In Alex (ew) Ken

That's been the case with the WTA since I can remember, even Serena was making tons.

When you think about how this is the elite level of the sport it's staggering that players can make so many mistakes.

Absolutely. Paolini didn't win the match, Rybakina won it for her. Looking like Sabalenka is going out too.

Fivecromwellplace 20.30 Curragh 22/1 bet365 Each way

clearance 4.10 newton Abbott

I don't know what the heck happened to her, 🙈 completely unfocussed out there, dreadful performance, Paolini did well but Rybakina pretty much handed the match to her with that shocking effort.

1/40 th of pt = a pony { 25 quid }

Boom 💥I do love Bog As i have said before its not about getting all four. Shortest price let me down again Al ameen

sorry everyone for lack of updates. Temporary fix til 💩show gets sorted out... please anyone who I already tagged in the Divisional threads as winners do go ahead and message me your Paypal details then when I sit down and compile the £list for the boss I'll hopefully have most of the info to send straight on to him 🙏

So far I've had 5 points e/w on Italy outright at 18/1 and Lukaku top goalscorer at 28/1. Italy are still 18/1 in one place and on the exchange (or if you can boost the 16/1 with Lads) Lukaku seems to be shortening; still 25/1 in places but a bit shorter on the exchange. I read a preview on the main Golden Boot contenders and thought Lukaku wasn't bad at the price. Another that looks worth a second look is Dovbyk (Ukraine) at 3 figure odds but, so far, I haven't been able to get on at quite the best price or place terms. I backed Italy when they won the last one based on Kevin Pullein tipping them in the RP. They might merit being bigger odds this time based on form but I still think the argument of backing one of the "usual suspects" at a bigger price holds water. There's so much luck in tournament football that qualifying and friendly form is of little relevance. There's a few who feel too short for me above Italy in the betting and plenty at bigger odds I can't see going all the way. At the price I'm happy to go with the Italians getting their act together when it matters (and, hopefully, enjoying a bit of the rub of the green). Anyone else got any thoughts or had any bets yet?

Final Result: Sad to say we managed to produce the worst overall result of all the divisions, we were obviously overcome by the occasion of being in the top tier! We wiped out half our overall bank and only 3 managed to stay in individual profit for the season although most of us did find at least one winner. But it looks like only our 1st place winner will be returning to Division 1 for the next season. 3 small wins this week plus an eliminating no show gives us a change to the top 4. @Sterphyle is our well deserved winner by some margin with 7 wins over the season, a mix of double and treble picks. @tonythepaint climbs up to 2nd place with a 5th win, and @Cauncie maintains his 3rd place. @Jediknight was our other weekly winner and takes the 4th place prize although not in overall profit. Well done to everyone for trying so hard all season, see you down in a lower Division next year.