Australian Open 2024

[Simeon Borisof]

9 hours ago, neilovan said:

I think Djokovic is vulnerable. Realistically he has played 2 rank outsiders. Prizmic is ranked around 175 and Popyrin is 48. The Djoko of old would just win both these matches 3-0. I think age has caught up with him a little, and he has an extra 2 sets in his legs that he didn't need. For me Etcheverry is much better than both Popyrin and Prizmic. He has won both his Aussie Open matches in straight sets.  

I went to work in Argentina in the early 2000's and was amazed at how many clay court facilities there were (in Buenos Aires). Lot's of kids hitting balls, facilites for free, coaches provided. As a kid you could play hours a day for no cost. It's a system that produces very solid, strong  players. Growing up and playing on clay does that. High levels of fitness, and solid ground strokes (as the ball bounces slower).

For me Djoko is not the greatest player ever, but he is the greatest 'recoverer'. He understands his body, and how to recover properly to 100%. Most of his opponents don't.  For me there is no doubt that this recovery is slower now, at his more advanced age. It is less of  a factor. A slightly fatigued Djoko at age 36 vs a rock solid 24 year old in the prime of his life... I think this goes to the wire and Etcheverry is worth a punt at 11-1. The handicap +7.5 also looks OK at 1.83

I was super impressed with Arthur Cazaux against Rune. This kid can play. Strong and tall, with a cannon for a serve. Moves very well and has a solid temprament. Rune is tricky, but he swatted him aside. It is a top win against a top 10 opponent. Not sure why he is the underdog against Griekspoor on Sat but I think he wins here.

I watched the Pegula v Burel match, and it was amazing how Burel just wiped her out. Pegula got so frustrated and her body language and mind just crumbled. And it is no fluke. Burel was world junior #1, so she has game, very good technique and the ability to problem solve on court. The only thing that was slighly lacking was physical strength, which will grow as she gets older. I think she wins quite easily against Dodin in the all French affair.

Will continue to back Navarro, and I think she wins against Yastremska. Just on such a winning streak, against an inconsistent opponent. Burel and Navarro as a double for me. 

 

Can't say that 1.80 is tall(cazaux).i consider somebody as tall if he is over 1.95 per say

[neilovan]

1 hour ago, Simeon Borisof said:

Can't say that 1.80 is tall(cazaux).i consider somebody as tall if he is over 1.95 per say

Maybe just his serve action. Seems taller listed at 1.83m which is only 6ft

[Swami]

7 hours ago, timovk said:

AUS Open WTA Outright Winner Sabalenka @4.30 Draftkings

Sabalenka has been very solid here: 3-0 loosing only 6 games. She is tough nut to crack even to Swiatek who has not been at her best lately. Sabalenka has beaten Swiatek twice on hard and IMO everything over @3.00 has value! 

AUS Open ATP Outright Winner Djokovic, @2.1 Draftkings 

Nole has played just what he has required. Loosing two sets, but he has not played in 100%. I have even 70% for the Serb, so a lot of value! 

 

Don’t like Djokovic’s odds here, he will probably find Sinner in the semis and in that case Sinner’s odds should be no more than 2.30 imo… and then, if he wins, Alcaraz or Medvedev in the final

For how she is playing, I’m not sure Iga will make it to the final, Aryna looks like the most in form player at the moment, yesterday was literally unplayable and double bageled Tsurenko with no effort at all. 4.30 not bad odds, considered that she will be the heavy fav in every match she will play

[CzechPunter]

A.Rublev/A. De Minaur - Over 3.5 sets at 1.47 with Unibet

Time to dabble in the ATP! Both Rublev and De Minaur are having excellent starts to the season, and we should be in for a really good match here. 1.47 isn't much, but I was expecting 1.33 if I'm to be honest. 

[CraigWagers]

Anyone like the look of Sinner this year?

[888888]

Frech - Gauff 

Frech over 5,5 games at 1.80 seems very attractive to me

[Swami]

AO WTA - of the 32 seeds that started the tournament on Monday only 6 has survived. Only 3 of them are top 10 players. I can’t remember anything like this happening before, at least in a GS

Edited January 20 by Swami

[amity]

I know none of these guys are going to win and probably won't make the semis either but still these are higher odds being offered than I would have expected from Paddy Power, when you consider they're all into the fourth round now. Mannarino for instance, I know Djokovic is up next but I still wouldn't have a seasoned campaigner who won an atp title a few weeks ago at such long odds. 

Edited January 20 by amity
Added some reasoning to my post

[CzechPunter]

Oceane Dodin (+5.5) to beat Qinwen Zheng at 1.75 with Unibet

Dodin has somehow found an incredible form at the start of this season, and I didn't like how labored Zheng's win was in the previous round. With Swiatek out, there will also be some additional pressure on her, and she tended to be shaky in such circumstances before.

[four-leaf]

Oceane Dodin to beat (+1.5 set) Qinwen Zheng at 2.42 with Coolbet

I can buy Dodin +5.5 so I can just as well take the set hcp.

Edited January 21 by four-leaf

[neilovan]

For me a very difficult, unpredictable Aussie open.

How many people see Dimitrov losing to Borges, or Norrie beating an in form Ruud?

Regardless of how well Tsitsipas plays, his 1 handed backhand is just such an average shot. Fritz can more than match him, and the key matchup between his 2 handed backhand and Tsitsi's 1 hander may be the difference.  Serving wise, Fritz has the edge, and I think he just comes out on top.

I fancy de Minaur to beat Rublev. Andre is just too emotional. He gets so infuriated on the court, and it distracts and wastes energy. The crowd will largely be against Rublev, and I think this 'Davis Cup' type atmosphere will have an effect. Two very similar players, but for me de Minuar has the edge physically. He has also played 9 sets, dropping more than 3 games in a set just once. So he should be a lot fresher. He cleaned up Arnaldi and Coboli, and was done quickly with Raonic in a W/O in 1st round.

 

 

[Smiles Tennis]

Krejcikova to beat Andreeva - 2.75 Bet365

The odds shouldn't have flipped this much since their last meeting a few months ago. 

[Swami]

10 hours ago, Smiles Tennis said:

Krejcikova to beat Andreeva - 2.75 Bet365

The odds shouldn't have flipped this much since their last meeting a few months ago. 

Good call. Every time I watch Mirra Andreeva playing I see her becoming a good player… but the “next big thing”? I don’t think so… she might find some space in the contemporary WTA, which is in general very low quality in comparison with the past decades, but nothing more

[Smiles Tennis]

2 hours ago, Swami said:

Good call. Every time I watch Mirra Andreeva playing I see her becoming a good player… but the “next big thing”? I don’t think so… she might find some space in the contemporary WTA, which is in general very low quality in comparison with the past decades, but nothing more

She'll be a comfortable top 20 player and win a few trophies along the way, probably a slam at some point as she's so young and is decent with so much time on her side. 

[neilovan]

Watched the Kalinskaya v Stephens match. Kalinskaya was down 3-4 3rd set, and faced 2 break points. SHe kept her head, survived and landed up winning the last 3 games. She is an excellent athlete. Strong and very well balanced. She has an excellent backhand that she hits up the line, which just kills opponents.  I think she wins against Paolini.

I think tommorow's 4th round mens matches are all in the balance. Medvedev is not convincing. I don't know how he got past Ruusuvouri because its a match he should have lost. Ruusuvouri didn't believe he could win. It was pretty odd. His opponent Nuno Borges was certainly not expected to beat Dimitrov, so I feel this will be a lot closer than people expect. A close match here and I think over 30.5 games is worth a bet at 1.90

I think Hurkacz has his hands fully with Cazaux. For me Rune a much better player, yet Cazaux just put him away easily. I think it will be a relatively long match (both have excellent serves), but I'm taking Cazaux to win here. The kid has that bullet proof confidence of youth and I give him the edge when it comes to serving, which could prove the deciding factor in the breakers.

I gave Norrie no chance to beat Ruud. I didn't see the game. I don't know if Ruud just had a bad day, but it is a surprise result. Norrie is better than he looks. He has this weird style ... like a far more physically capable Mannarino. I think if he gets his tactics right against Zverev he can win. For me, Zverev has a terrible transition game (moving off the baseline, and hitting a midcourt volley or half volley). He can't hit through that ball, and he can't get his tall frame low enough.

On the baseline he looks amazing ... that 2 handed backhand is as good as Djoko's. But in transition play, he can't get his big frame low enough to hit those shots effectively. Its a glaring weakness in his game. Over 38.5 games at 1.83

I have not been impressed with Alcaraz. He has so much talent and physicality, but I don't see the expected improvements in his game. He still looks like an unpolished diamond. I watched the Kecmanovic match against Paul. Paul had 2 match points in the 4th set break, yet still lost it 9-7. 5th set Kecmanovic destroyed him. This is a very strong, underrated opponent who can give plenty of problems.  Over 30.5 games at 1.83

 

Edited January 21 by neilovan

[Swami]

Svitolina @1.63 bf

Noskova’s odds a little inflated because of the win over Iga, but not totally off, she played well even if it was mostly Iga’s fault, always rushing and rushing… I don’t think Elina will make the same mistake, she will be 100% focused, with the draw so open she has a real shot at making the finals… let’s see if order is restored and experience will prevail, as usually happens in the Slams

[Smiles Tennis]

D. Yastremska to beat V. Azarenka - 3.60 with Betfair

[timovk]

AUS Open WTA Outright Winner Sabalenka @4.30 Draftkings

Sabalenka has been very solid here: 3-0 loosing only 6 games. She is tough nut to crack even to Swiatek who has not been at her best lately. Sabalenka has beaten Swiatek twice on hard and IMO everything over @3.00 has value! 

AUS Open ATP Outright Winner Djokovic, @2.1 Draftkings 

Nole has played just what he has required. Loosing two sets, but he has not played in 100%. I have even 70% for the Serb, so a lot of value! 

[timovk]

Cazaux - Hurkazs @3.22 Marathonbet 👎

I see a lot of value on this! Cazaux is 8-0 on January and has beaten Rune and Griekspoor here. IMO Hurkacz is too Big favourite and struggled a lot against poor Mensik on the 2nd round. 

Azarenka + Svitolina @2.08 Marathonbet 👎

I have more than 60% on this. Both experienced favourites should win. 

 

 

Edited January 22 by timovk

[CzechPunter]

Back Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open? - No at 1.82 with Pinnacle

I'm going to go against most of the forum here, but I'm just not that convinced by Novak. He struggled big time ahead of the Australian Open, and, before that Mannarino beatdown, he had some issues as well. It's going to get tougher from now on, and there are some solid candidates in Sinner, Alcaraz, and co. I'd be surprised, but not shocked, to see him lose against Fritz in the very next round.

[timovk]

Fritz - Djokovic - 2.5 sets @2.00 👎

Nole has been convinced here especially on last two while Fritz has struggled a lot. The Serb has won last 5 mutual meetings in straight set. 

Krejchikova - Sabalenka - 5.5 games @1.95 Marathonbet 👍

Sabalenka has won all matches here easily in straight sets. Krejcikova has battled well but now the opponent will be way too tough. Sabalenka has won last two mutual matches with 7 games margins. 

Kostuyk - Gauff - 6 games @1.90 Marathonbet 👎

Coco has been very solid here without loosing a set. Kostuyk has played 3/4 three set matches. Now Gauff will take an easy win. 

 

Edited January 24 by timovk

[Schokolade2]

Carlos to get the job done against Zverev in under 38. He's sharp and fresher, having spent 5 hours less on the court. Carlos has also been getting better as the tournament goes on.

•  

[Simeon Borisof]

1 hour ago, Schokolade2 said:

Carlos to get the job done against Zverev in under 38. He's sharp and fresher, having spent 5 hours less on the court. Carlos has also been getting better as the tournament goes on.

•  

The freshness might cost Zverev the match, although he has been heavily dominating this fixture on hard courts. Zverev to take a set though.

[timovk]

Zverev - Alcaraz - 2.5 sets @2.23 Marathonbet 👎

Alcaraz is more versatile player and now has been 5 hours less on court. I expect tight first set and two easy ones for the Spaniard. 

Edited January 24 by timovk

[Smiles Tennis]

C. Gauff to beat A. Sabalenka - 2.92 with Betfair

Gauff can win ugly if needed and Sabalenka has huge problems in Slam semi finals. Little bit of value for me here. 

[four-leaf]

11 hours ago, Smiles Tennis said:

C. Gauff to beat A. Sabalenka - 2.92 with Betfair

Gauff can win ugly if needed and Sabalenka has huge problems in Slam semi finals. Little bit of value for me here. 

I totally agree  

[four-leaf]

Excuse me for going off topic here but there's another event going on in Belgium this week and I've noticed a clear wrong priceing in Goffin v Shelbay. Goffin still goes around on his name and has been put as a quite heavy favorite tonight.

I dare to say Shelbay has a pretty good chance of upsetting the local favorite at 3.45. 

So Abdullah Shelbay to beat David Goffin at 3.45 with Coolbet 

Edited January 25 by four-leaf

[CzechPunter]

Hoping for Sinner tonight, and I fancy Medvedev in the second match, though the odds are probably right.

[charliepie]

Amazing call on Shelbay!

[CzechPunter]

J.Sinner/D.Medvedev - Over 3.5 sets at 1.63 with Pinnacle

I don't really see much happening in the women's final, but I am going to go for the "obvious" bet in the men's showdown. I get that Sinner is the favorite, but it's very difficult for me to see him winning 3-0, and the reverse result is even more improbable. Both have shown a lot of fight in Melbourne, and I reckon the pressure will manifest itself once one of them comes within the reach of winning the trophy. Let's hope for a good one!