timovk Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 (edited) Only 12 days to the 1st Grand Slam. I'm very surprised that Djokovic is still so huge favourite! The Serb was not at his best today against Lehecka altough took two sets 6-1, but lost the second set after tiebreak. He had some problems with his wrist and got medical threatment twice. Furthermore Nole was quite nervous and made some easy errors and lost two games in his own serves in a row!Nadal was very impressive on his comeback after year-long injury absence against Thiem. Rafa was very powerfull and his movement was excellent. He played in very high level especially on the the second set. I already got Nadal @19,50 from Marathonbet and IMO everything over @10,00 has value! UNFORTUNATELY RAFA HAS RETIRED! More opinions to come... Edited January 7 by timovk CzechPunter, ThunderDan9 and amity 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Might be the time to back another player in this years edition like Alcaraz, Meddy, Rublev, Demon, Grigor? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Been thinking about Irina Maria Bara a bit and have come to the conclusion Bara to beat (+1.5 sets) Eva Lys at 2.26 with Coolbet is my call. I raise the risk a bit compared to @CzechPunter and his bet of Bara +5.5 games. I thought I place this here since qualies is a part of all events. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duffyduck74 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Outright I try this year: Djokovic @ 2.10 | 3/10 --> Suprabets Sinner @ 7.50 |1/10 --> Suprabets Tbh, I dont hav much of an idea who else should win. Nadal is absent, Alcaraz didn't play a match in 2024 and was everything else but in form in the end of 2023 and Zverev imho will not win a GS in 2024. Only other contender eventually Medvedev, but I think he had his chances 2022 and 2021 and his nerves will if he gets colse once again play tricks on him... amity, CzechPunter and ThunderDan9 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Fiona Ferro to beat Polina Kudermetova at 1.72 with Coolbet Moving in on Fiona who’s been on the up for some time now. About time she qualifies for a slam again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amity Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 (edited) removed content as requested Edited January 11 by amity grumpy four-leaf! four-leaf, ThunderDan9 and CzechPunter 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiles Tennis Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Jeanjean to beat Lys - 5.00 with Bet365 Huge price for Jeanjean who is only ranked 4 places lower than Lys, has also won in qualifying so far and has an 8-4 hardcourt record in slam qualies. These should be closer. Sonmez to beat Sun - 2.41 with Pinnacle Again should be closer, I make this more a 50/50 match so 2.41 is value on Sonmez. Larkin22, ThunderDan9 and CzechPunter 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 12 hours ago, amity said: removed content as requested Not grumpy, his whole X content came visible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amity Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 7 minutes ago, four-leaf said: Not grumpy, his whole X content came visible Understood, I won't make that mistake again. Let's draw a line under it now and we'll see if we can make a few quid over the next few weeks. 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 hours ago, amity said: Understood, I won't make that mistake again. Let's draw a line under it now and we'll see if we can make a few quid over the next few weeks. 👍 Yes, just post official links of draws from ausopen.com and so on amity 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foo_Fighter Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Sebastian Korda at 126.00 bet365 Sebastian Korda to win the 2nd quarter at 15.00 bet365 Great footwork, so light on his feet... A bit federeresque in a way, his style of play, his general composure.. the all court type play. I love that he deploys the serve & volley tactic against formidable players who cannot be beaten otherwise (defeated Medvedev 3-0 AO 3rd round). Andy Murray to win the 1st quarter at 80.00 Stoiximan If - and that is a huge if - he somehow finds a way to reach the 3rd - 4th round, then great things can happen for this guy in Melbourne. It's the start of the season and all players have huge levels of energy. I think 80.00 is definitely wrong here. AO - Women Winning Quarter - the 2nd quarter at 4.00 bet365 Rybakina, Pegula , Qinwen Zheng are at this quarter. Good luck. CzechPunter and ThunderDan9 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 But Murray is on a collisioncourse with Nole Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, Foo_Fighter said: Sebastian Korda at 126.00 bet365 Sebastian Korda to win the 2nd quarter at 15.00 bet365 Great footwork, so light on his feet... A bit federeresque in a way, his style of play, his general composure.. the all court type play. I love that he deploys the serve & volley tactic against formidable players who cannot be beaten otherwise (defeated Medvedev 3-0 AO 3rd round). Andy Murray to win the 1st quarter at 80.00 Stoiximan If - and that is a huge if - he somehow finds a way to reach the 3rd - 4th round, then great things can happen for this guy in Melbourne. It's the start of the season and all players have huge levels of energy. I think 80.00 is definitely wrong here. AO - Women Winning Quarter - the 2nd quarter at 4.00 bet365 Rybakina, Pegula , Qinwen Zheng are at this quarter. Good luck. Best of luck @Foo_Fighter but for me Korda has absolutely no chance and isn't worth backing even at those odds. The quarter maybe, but not a prayer for the tournament. He's far too flaky. I'd love to see Murray do well but it's very difficult to see him having any sort of run as he seems to be involved in long slog-fests every time he plays and his body just isn't up to that any more. CzechPunter and amity 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swami Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Cilic is 36 now and in 2023 he played only 3 official matches, I’m really tempted to go with Marozsan @1.80 in a 3/5 match… the only thing preventing me at the moment is an apparently hard fought 3setter match vs. Struff in Hong Kong at the beginning of the year… have you seen him playing in Hong Kong? What do you think? CzechPunter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 hours ago, Swami said: Cilic is 36 now and in 2023 he played only 3 official matches, I’m really tempted to go with Marozsan @1.80 in a 3/5 match… the only thing preventing me at the moment is an apparently hard fought 3setter match vs. Struff in Hong Kong at the beginning of the year… have you seen him playing in Hong Kong? What do you think? Take Maroszan without hesitation CzechPunter and Swami 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 We have an early start for this year's Australian Open! Leolia Jeanjean (+1.5 sets) to beat Caroline Dolehide at 1.93 with Pinnacle Jeanjean has qualified for the main draw while beating two very decent players in Rodionova and Lys, and she also beat Dolehide when the two met back in 2022. That was on clay, and there's no doubt that Dolehide is the favorite here, but I very much like the odds for Jeanjean getting a set at least. I think that she's a very live underdog under the circumstances. Smiles Tennis 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duffyduck74 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 (edited) My Picks for Today: Tiafoe - Coric @ 2,56 | 2/10 👎Sweeny - Cerundolo @ 3,32 | 1/10 👎 Marozsan - Cilic @ 2,225 | 2/10 👎 O'connell- Garin @ 3.02 @ 2/10 👎Halys - Harris @3.27 | 1/10 👍 Kombi {Shevchenko - Munar 🤬 Arnaldi - Walton Machac - Mochizuki} @ 2,19 | 1/10 👎 All on Suprabets. Edit: Yes I overestimated Cilic. My bad. Sweeny and Gary both lost in the 5th, so bad luck. And even Coric was not that bad. Could even have made the 2nd set, which would have made it a different game. Had also a MTO because of a bladder on his right heel). And according Shevchenko: That was ridiculous and nearly conscientious objection to work... 🤬 Edited January 14 by Duffyduck74 ThunderDan9 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 @Duffyduck74 makes no sense to move in on Cilic and you don't even give a bad reason Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duffyduck74 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 (edited) 1 hour ago, four-leaf said: @Duffyduck74 makes no sense to move in on Cilic and you don't even give a bad reason Sorry I was in a little hurry, so I just threw in the bets. Cilic beat Murray 6:3, 7:5 4 Days ago (ok, it was an exibition, but still...) and only just lost to Struff in Hong Kong (6:3, 6:7, 6:7) Marozsan lost against Shelton(3:6, 4;6) and against Bautista-Agut (2:6, 3:6) and just won against an imho out of form Monfils (6:4, 6:7, 7:6). Furthermore Marozsan is all but a specialist on hardcourt and favours rather clay avoids to play on hardcourt as good as he can, while Cilic was was never to bad on hardcourt. The odds give me a Probability of ~ 45%, and I would rate this match 50:50 at least, rather 55 %. Maybe I'm wrong, but these are the reasons, why I bet on Cilic. Edited January 13 by Duffyduck74 four-leaf, ThunderDan9 and CzechPunter 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swami Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Saville @1.92 bf Don’t understand these odds frankly, Saville already won vs. Frech last year when she was just back in the circuit, is coming from a good run in Hobart, and is playing in her home country. Moreover, Saville has a lot of variations in her game that can cause trouble to players much more gifted than Frech. 1.60 would have been the right odds imo. CzechPunter, four-leaf and Duffyduck74 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swami Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Svitolina 2-0 + Kasatkina @1.90 bet 365 Don’t think that Preston has the game to bother Elina in any way, I’ve watched her playing a couple of times and I’m unimpressed tbh. Worst possible matchup for Stearns imo. She is so prone to unforced errors and Dasha can really drive her crazy making her play a lot of extra balls. Not surprised that the 2 previous H2H ended 6-2 6-1 and 6-0 6-1. ThunderDan9, four-leaf and CzechPunter 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 (edited) 12 hours ago, Duffyduck74 said: Sorry I was in a little hurry, so I just threw in the bets. Cilic beat Murray 6:3, 7:5 4 Days ago (ok, it was an exibition, but still...) and only just lost to Struff in Hong Kong (6:3, 6:7, 6:7) Marozsan lost against Shelton(3:6, 4;6) and against Bautista-Agut (2:6, 3:6) and just won against an imho out of form Monfils (6:4, 6:7, 7:6). Furthermore Marozsan is all but a specialist on hardcourt and favours rather clay avoids to play on hardcourt as good as he can, while Cilic was was never to bad on hardcourt. The odds give me a Probability of ~ 45%, and I would rate this match 50:50 at least, rather 55 %. Maybe I'm wrong, but these are the reasons, why I bet on Cilic. You really shouldn't categorize Maroszan as a clay specialist. Those hungarians can play on all surfaces and Maroszan is capable and talented enough to win matches on all surfaces. And losing to Struff for Cilics part doesn't look good because Struff is one of the most unmotived players after bigger exploits and right now he just had his biggest exploit last season in Madrid and that has as it seems been enough for him for awhile. He's got his decent ranking and probably no plans except chilling out on the court. Edited January 14 by four-leaf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 18 hours ago, Duffyduck74 said: My Picks for Today: Tiafoe - Coric @ 2,56 | 2/10 👎Sweeny - Cerundolo @ 3,32 | 1/10 👎 Marozsan - Cilic @ 2,225 | 2/10 👎 O'connell- Garin @ 3.02 @ 2/10 👎Halys - Harris @3.27 | 1/10 👍 Kombi {Shevchenko - Munar 🤬 Arnaldi - Walton Machac - Mochizuki} @ 2,19 | 1/10 👎 All on Suprabets. Edit: Yes I overestimated Cilic. My bad. Sweeny and Gary both lost in the 5th, so bad luck. And even Coric was not that bad. Could even have made the 2nd set, which would have made it a different game. Had also a MTO because of a bladder on his right heel). And according Shevchenko: That was ridiculous and nearly conscientious objection to work... 🤬 Please @Duffyduck74 don't even say you had bad luck. Picking Sweeney and Cristian Garin who you even spell incorrectly as Gary in reality even before their matches they were massive underdog. O'Connell and Cerundolo are no pushovers as you seem to think. Cerundolo can play on every surface better than Sweeney ever will. What reason did you even have for placing your bet on Dane Sweeney to acctually beat top 20 player Francisco Cerundolo who's even won a ATP250 on grass a few months ago? Did you seriously think Francisco didn't play well on hard and you chose to categorize him as a clay specialist? CzechPunter and ThunderDan9 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, four-leaf said: who you even spell incorrectly as Gary That's an unnecessary degree of pedantry and looks slightly silly given it's close proximity to multiple misspellings of "Sweeny". I don't know about anyone else put I find that degree of criticism of someone else's selections (after they have lost) slightly excessive. Please stick to constructive comments preferably before the event. Otherwise it might look like there is an intention to discourage someone else from posting, which I'm sure is not the intention. Smiles Tennis, ThunderDan9 and Torque 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 20 minutes ago, harry_rag said: That's an unnecessary degree of pedantry and looks slightly silly given it's close proximity to multiple misspellings of "Sweeny". I don't know about anyone else put I find that degree of criticism of someone else's selections (after they have lost) slightly excessive. Please stick to constructive comments preferably before the event. Otherwise it might look like there is an intention to discourage someone else from posting, which I'm sure is not the intention. Yes I wrote Sweeney myself which is incorrect. But there seems to have been a loss of my post where I urged @Duffyduck74 to have a discussion here before placing bets to avoid mistakes when betting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duffyduck74 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 (edited) Well, I wont argue with you @four-leaf I just want to say that my estimation for the probabilities were bigger than the probabitity the odds of the bookies reflected. Tiafoe - Coric @ 2,56 --> Bookie: 39,1 %; my estimate: ~ 49 %Sweeny - Cerundolo @ 3,32 --> Bookie 30 %; my estimate ~ 44%Marozsan - Cilic @ 2,225 --> here I already said my estiation was probably incorrect.O'connell- Garin @ 3.02 --> Bookie: 33%; my estimation: ~ 50%Halys - Harris @3.27 --> Bookie: 30,6 %; my estimation: ~ 40%# So for me they were valuebets. Two of them were lost very close, one worked out, one was interesting when one watcheed the game (Tiafoe - Coric) and on one i obviously misjudged, yes. You might of course disagree on my estimations, I could also elaborate how I got to them (mixture of ELO, Form, H2H, cross-references) and you might still disagree. Well that happens. But in the future, as you wish, I will only put in my bets, when I have time to elaborate, why I pick them and why I see value. As I don't have the time for this anymore now, I just don't post them for today. Have a nice evening (it is late in Austria now). PS.: English is only my 2nd language, just before you criticize my formulations or my spelling too... Edited January 14 by Duffyduck74 CzechPunter, Smiles Tennis, ThunderDan9 and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 10 minutes ago, Duffyduck74 said: You might of course disagree on my estimations, I could also elaborate how I got to them (mixture of ELO, Form, H2H, cross-references) and you might still disagree. Well that happens. I have no idea how to price a tennis match up so would only have my occasional bet when I see a write up on here that tempts me in. I do, however, like a system approach to betting and would be slightly wary of a system that gave me true odds that were that far away from the market consensus. I assume you keep proper records of your bets so you can see if your returns match your expectations and support your pricing approach but its definitely worth doing if not. My anytime goalscorer system went through a lot of iterations before arriving at the currently (seemingly) profitable criteria but I only got there through keeping detailed records and carrying out regular analysis. Duffyduck74 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 @four-leafConsider yourself warned. four-leaf 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Jakub Mensik to beat Denis Shapovalov at 1.64 with Coolbet Any given Sunday I'd go all in on this. It's all good with Mensik. But far from ok with Shapo. Alex De Minaur to beat (-5.5 games) Milos Raonic at 1.72 with Coolbet I don't understand what the bookies see in Milos which makes them lower line to 5.5. Dasha Kasatkina to beat (-1.5 sets) Peyton Stearns at 1.96 with Coolbet Good thinking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Daria Saville to beat Magdalena Frech at 1.80 with William Hill I fully agree with what has been posted here already, Saville always gets a lot of support in Australia and she's been playing rather well lately. Duffyduck74 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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