Duffyduck74

As a base in Tennis I take the Elo-Estimation of two Webites that offer them for the probility. And then I take corrections according to form, H2H, cross-references, ... And by no way I reached the level of systematic approach and automatisation that I want... 😁 I keep record of my bets since last August (overall not only tennis, also football, darts and wintersports). Since then I have 1338 bets (which I know is not that much) and a ROI of a little more then 10 % (tennis might be lower then 10 % i feel, but for sure positive), and I know that is not as good as othersare especially compared to the low nuber on bets I have kept record off. But I am profitable since 2 years (although as I said only very low stakes). I am no way a pro, nor do I bet for living or for earning money. I do it just for fun, because I like Sports and as long as I don't lose on the long run (if i start losing on the long run I will stop for sure). That said, there are many more better sources (eg. CzechPunter and four-leaf) than I am. But I like being on a forum and exchanging bets and ideas. I also like exchanging opinions (if i have the time) and discussion, but what I like most is netiquette in a forum. In can also critizise with appreciation. Waht I dislike is being critizised for English not being my first language, and for spelling names incorrectly or for typos. So just let's have fun and interesting discussions in here. 🤩 Greetings from Vienna.

Well, I wont argue with you @four-leaf I just want to say that my estimation for the probabilities were bigger than the probabitity the odds of the bookies reflected. Tiafoe - Coric @ 2,56 --> Bookie: 39,1 %; my estimate: ~ 49 %Sweeny - Cerundolo @ 3,32 --> Bookie 30 %; my estimate ~ 44%Marozsan - Cilic @ 2,225 --> here I already said my estiation was probably incorrect.O'connell- Garin @ 3.02 --> Bookie: 33%; my estimation: ~ 50%Halys - Harris @3.27 --> Bookie: 30,6 %; my estimation: ~ 40%# So for me they were valuebets. Two of them were lost very close, one worked out, one was interesting when one watcheed the game (Tiafoe - Coric) and on one i obviously misjudged, yes. You might of course disagree on my estimations, I could also elaborate how I got to them (mixture of ELO, Form, H2H, cross-references) and you might still disagree. Well that happens. But in the future, as you wish, I will only put in my bets, when I have time to elaborate, why I pick them and why I see value. As I don't have the time for this anymore now, I just don't post them for today. Have a nice evening (it is late in Austria now). PS.: English is only my 2nd language, just before you criticize my formulations or my spelling too...

Sorry I was in a little hurry, so I just threw in the bets. Cilic beat Murray 6:3, 7:5 4 Days ago (ok, it was an exibition, but still...) and only just lost to Struff in Hong Kong (6:3, 6:7, 6:7) Marozsan lost against Shelton(3:6, 4;6) and against Bautista-Agut (2:6, 3:6) and just won against an imho out of form Monfils (6:4, 6:7, 7:6). Furthermore Marozsan is all but a specialist on hardcourt and favours rather clay avoids to play on hardcourt as good as he can, while Cilic was was never to bad on hardcourt. The odds give me a Probability of ~ 45%, and I would rate this match 50:50 at least, rather 55 %. Maybe I'm wrong, but these are the reasons, why I bet on Cilic.

My Picks for Today: Tiafoe - Coric @ 2,56 | 2/10 👎 Sweeny - Cerundolo @ 3,32 | 1/10 👎 Marozsan - Cilic @ 2,225 | 2/10 👎 O'connell- Garin @ 3.02 @ 2/10 👎 Halys - Harris @3.27 | 1/10 👍 Kombi {Shevchenko - Munar 🤬 Arnaldi - Walton Machac - Mochizuki} @ 2,19 | 1/10 👎 All on Suprabets. Edit: Yes I overestimated Cilic. My bad. Sweeny and Gary both lost in the 5th, so bad luck. And even Coric was not that bad. Could even have made the 2nd set, which would have made it a different game. Had also a MTO because of a bladder on his right heel). And according Shevchenko: That was ridiculous and nearly conscientious objection to work... 🤬

Outright I try this year: Djokovic @ 2.10 | 3/10 --> Suprabets Sinner @ 7.50 |1/10 --> Suprabets Tbh, I dont hav much of an idea who else should win. Nadal is absent, Alcaraz didn't play a match in 2024 and was everything else but in form in the end of 2023 and Zverev imho will not win a GS in 2024. Only other contender eventually Medvedev, but I think he had his chances 2022 and 2021 and his nerves will if he gets colse once again play tricks on him...

Today i try: Lehecka - Jarry @ 1.75 | 1/10 --> Betway 👎 Muller - Daniel @ 2.00 | 2/10 --> Betway 👍 Paul - Draper @ 2.20 | 1/10 --> B365 👍

Hope everybody got good to 2024! Here are the bets I take today: Kombi {Hijikata - Dimitrov Kotov - Ruusuvuori} @ 1.95 | 1/10 👍 Kombi {Rublev - Fils (1) Nadal [-1,5] - Thompson} @ 2,04 | 1/10 👎 Ann.: Nadal won the first set, and had 3 matchpoints (one for 7:5, two more in the TB), before he lost the 2nd set in the TB. Ofner - Bautista @ 2,75 | 1/10 👍 Safiullin - Arnaldi @ 2,80 | 1,5/10 👎 Ann.: Good 1st set from Arnaldi, but he lost in the TB. After that it was a clear thing for Safiullin and Arnaldi didn't play well anymore. Good Luck everybody!

Dimitrov - Tsitsipas @ 2,25 | 2/10 Djokovic - Rublev: Rublev wins > 0,5 Sets @ 1,75 | 1/10

Today I take the following ones: Hurkacz - Dimitrov @ 2.25 1/10 👎 Djokovic - Rune: Rune > 0,5 Sets @2.20 | 1/10 👍 De Minaur - Rublev @ 3.00 | 1/10 👎 Kombi {Tsitsipas - Khachanov Djokovic - Rune} @1,98 | 2/10 👍 Let's see what happens... 😉

I think Thiem - Rune is priced well by the bookies. Not much value in it. Both were getting better in the last Week, but i think is well in front of Thiem. Maybe I do something live, as I will watch the game. What I try today is: Sinner - McDonald: McDonald to win at least one Set @ 3,10 | 1/10 The Matchodds on McDonald are also interesting @ 8,25. Hmmm...

Today I play: Zverev - Rublev @ 2.00 | 1/10 Kombi {Medvedev - Khachanov Tiafoe - Sinner Shevchenko - Auger Aliassime} @ 2.26 | 2/10 Kombi {Humbert - Stricker Rune - Etcheverry} @ 2.10 | 2/10

Tennis (Stockholm): Rune - Kecmanovic @ 2.30 | 1/10 👍 Rune dod win only one match since Wimbledon, and that was against FAA, who was also totaly out of form back then (OT.: FAA still is out of form, but it slowly gets better). Kecmanovic won some games, although nothing special or explicitly notable. That was whzy i was hoping vor a higher quota, which didn't happen. I'll take him anyway small.

F...! When will I finally learn NOT to touch Ostapenko!!!!! 🙈 Edit: Ok. In the end she made it, but... 🤪

San Diego (WTA): Navarro - Sasnovic @ 2.02 | 2/10 (Mr Green) Alexandrova - Ostapenko @ 1,90 | 2/10 (Betway) 👍

Sorry that I ask, but english is not my 1st language, and so I don't know, what the abbrevations NAP and NB mean. Can you please help me with that? Thx a lot!

Rodionov should be a save pick as part of a combination. I just picked him myself in a single bet: Ejupovic - Rodionov (-4,5 Games) @ 2.05 | 1/10 👎 Another interesting Match could be this pick: Oberleitner - Miedler @ 1,98 | 1/10 👎 And: Sorry if this ist too OT as this thread is about the US Open. I just answered @sterziyskii, because I am from Austria... 😉

These are my picks for today: Medvedev - De Minaur: > 35,5 Games @ 1.73 | 2/10 👎 Note: What a pitty, that the single sets were so clear (2:6, 6:4, 6:1, 6:2), b/c 3 more games would have done it... Kombi {Alcaraz (-2,5) - Arnaldi Tiafoe - Shelton} @ 1,93 | 2/10 Cirstea - Muchova (-2,5 Games) @ 1,96 | 2/10

Thx for the Jabeur-hint. I oversaw that. I will see if I can Cashout Edit: As Pliskova plays before Jabeur, I probably will wait until she played and hopefully won her match. Then a CO should be much better. If I do it now, i would lose 20 % of my stake of this bet.

Today I play: Draper - Hurcacz: > 1,5 TBs @ 3,4 | 2/10 🤮 Kombi {Wawrinka - Etchevary Melingeni - Baez Samsonova - Korpatsch} @ 1,98 | 2/10 👍 Kombi {Jabeur -Noskova Pliskova - Burel} @ 2,28 | 1/10 👎 Kombi {Sinner - Sonego Wu - De Minaur Gojo - Vesely] @ 1,82 | 2/10

Maria - Sorribes Tormo > 21,5 Games @ 1,94, Mr Green| 2/10 👎 For the Bookies Sorrribes Tormo is the favorite, although Maria is better in the ranking, also has a great run atm (Semis in Warsaw, won Barranquilla and two good wins against Gracheva and Fernandez in this tournament; 10:1 in the last games). But Sorribes Tormo plays also a good tournament after coming through the qualifier. so I expect a close Match and this ist why I bet on > 21,5 Games

Some plays for today: Kalinina - Maria > 21,5 Games @ 1,9 | 2/10, Admiral --> Kalinina retired Robbe - Kraus @1,95 | 3/10, Tipp3 👎 Cerundolo - Kumar @ 2.48 | 2/10, Suprabets 👎

Well that was a little bit unlucky yesterday... 🙄 Today I try: Draper - Griekspoor @ 1.95 Betway | 2/10 --> VOID; Draper gave up after the 1st set. Draper - Griekspoor: at least one Tie-Break in the match @ 2.02 Mr Green | 4/10 👍 Draper - Griekspoor: a Tie-Break in the 1st set @ 4.00 Mr Green | 1/10 👍 Both players have a good Service and their Service-Stats are close (small advantage Griekspoor), and on the return the stats favor Draper a little bit. Griekspoor is all in all the better player and will win, but I think the sets themselves will be close and I expect a TB in this Match. If it comes in the 1st set, even better... 🙃 Good Luck!

Hello! I am new here, but I will try to post three bets: Koepfer - Lestienne @ 2,56 Suprabets | 2/10 👎 Althoutgh Koepfer is ahead in the rankings and the favorite for the bookies, I think Lestienne will win. He is the better HC-Player, he leads the H2H 2:0 and he is in good shape, having won the challenger in Palo Alto. Fucsovics - Zhang @ 1,72 Suprabets | 2/10 👍 Fucsovics ist 0:1 back at the H2H. On the other hand , Shangs HC-Season this year was rather poor and he also is behind in the ranking. So imho Fucsovics will win this match and is even a bigger favorite than the bookies think. van Asche - Kwiatkowski @ 2.40 Bet365 1/10 👎Here I go totally agains the Bookies. For them the ranking (65 vs.477) makes van Asche the total fafourite. BUT: van Asche only polaed 5 Matches on HC in the last 2 years and didn't win a single one of those. Somehow it is strange (he is eg. good indoors), but it seems, like open air HC is just not his thing. So I take Kwiatkowski. Good Luck!