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Tennis Tips - June 20 - June 26


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  • 2 weeks later...

We've got plenty of action this week, including Wimbledon qualifiers, and one thing that I'd probably want to point out is that there are no points for the Grand Slam due to the exclusion of Russians/Belarussians. That means that perhaps the motivation factor of players wanting to focus on the Wimbledon will be slightly different this season than previously. Now, there's obviously way more money in the Grand Slam than in these minor tournaments this week, but it's something to keep in mind.

Marta Kostyuk to beat Barbora Krejcikova at 2.25 with Unibet

Krejcikova has played just a single match since February, and she was utterly without fitness in the French Open, so I think it's not too fair to have Kostyuk as the underdog here, especially since she was crushing it nicely yesterday.

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A few words about Garbine for anyone of a mind to back her anytime soon - tread carefully. Conditions are a little tricky in Eastbourne right now due to wind, but even so the unforced error count from her is too high and shows why she's been losing so often recently. If you can't keep the ball in the court then literally anyone can beat you, and a quick look at Garbine's record this season shows that's exactly what's been happening.

Edited by Torque
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Katerina Siniakova (+1.5 sets) to beat Simona Halep at 2.41 with Pinnacle

Something just isn't clicking with Halep, she's good in patches and bad in patches, and she had a very disappointing Sunday when she lost against Haddad Maia. If she's still in a bit of a slump, Siniakova can certainly steal a set, as she did against Andreescu last time out. Given the odds, I much prefer the set handicap over the games handicap, as Siniakova can produce a meltdown in the decider.

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2 picks for Wimbledon qualifying matches tomorrow:

KUBLER-4 GAMES HANDICAP OVER TIRANTE @ 1.75 pinnacle
Kubler has 33-10 record this year, and winning 14 out of his last 16 matches, and he is playing a clay court specialist.

GRENIER-BARRANCO 2:0 sets @ 1.5 (several bookies)
Grenier has good serve and a good game for grass, in general, playing vs another clay court specialist (Barranco).


 

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Despina Papamichail (+4.5) to beat Natalija Stevanovic at 1.83 with Pinnacle

I'm not quite sure why Papamichail isn't getting any credit for her big win over Lys, she's constantly underrated by the bookies, but she's had some decent results recently. Stevanovic had a good win in the first round, but +4.5 looks off to me.

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7 hours ago, amity said:

I presume Badosa and perhaps Sakkari too decided to give themselves a few days off before Wimbledon to rest up and recharge. Although that said, with Badosa you're never quite sure, as she has had some shocking losses at times this year for a player who's considered to be top 5 in the world. 

For the ATP I think it is Tsitsipas who will like to take a rest and freshen up before the GS.  So Ivashka got a chance to beat him at a great value.

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33 minutes ago, Robinnho said:

For the ATP I think it is Tsitsipas who will like to take a rest and freshen up before the GS.  So Ivashka got a chance to beat him at a great value.

Tsitsipas is the most overrated player. To lose from Ivashka is something not shocking. I mean i don't trust Tsitsipas any more against any player. And especially on grass, he looks weak player. Dozens would beat him on grass. Zero progress in the last three years on his game. Actually is moving backwards than forwards. And i hate his father. If he doesn't fire his idiot father for ever, don't expect anything from Tsitsipas. 

I am out of any betting involvement this week. 

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9 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Despina Papamichail (+4.5) to beat Natalija Stevanovic at 1.83 with Pinnacle

I'm not quite sure why Papamichail isn't getting any credit for her big win over Lys, she's constantly underrated by the bookies, but she's had some decent results recently. Stevanovic had a good win in the first round, but +4.5 looks off to me.

yeah, very disappointing from Lys, she was overpowered her groundstrokes and has not found the lines. Great defense from Papamichael, she covered the court really well and was the better player for the last 1,75 sets.

good luck for your pick. if she plays like yesterday she will easily cover that handicap

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Danielle Lao to beat Nastasja Mariana Schunk at 2.10 with BetVictor

Not quite sure why Lao is even the underdog here, she's played more on grass recently and with some good results, while Schunk really has only the two qualifying matches under her belt if you don't count the awful performance against Sanders. And, she's beaten clay court players in those two wins. She's talented, true, but Lao has experience on her side and is probably also better on grass overall. Everything above evens is value here imo.

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57 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, that didn't quite work out, should've stayed with the regular WTA I guess. Anyway, not much now until the Grand Slam!

These few weeks between the French and Wimbledon are always trappy. It's really hard to get a handle on a good bet - motivation is questionable, the transition from clay to grass is probably the most pronounced surface transition there is and lots of players have hardly ever played on grass so you've got much less of an idea of what to expect and sometimes no idea at all. It all adds up to results like Van Rijthoven winning the other week and Haddad Maia turning into Serena out of nowhere which are scenarios I don't think you'd see on other surfaces.

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1 hour ago, Torque said:

These few weeks between the French and Wimbledon are always trappy. It's really hard to get a handle on a good bet - motivation is questionable, the transition from clay to grass is probably the most pronounced surface transition there is and lots of players have hardly ever played on grass so you've got much less of an idea of what to expect and sometimes no idea at all. It all adds up to results like Van Rijthoven winning the other week and Haddad Maia turning into Serena out of nowhere which are scenarios I don't think you'd see on other surfaces.

Bellier might be about to do a Van Rijthoven as well. In fairness it's not all unpredictable - Berrettini going back to back couldn't be described as that much of a surprise, except maybe from the perspective he's not long back from injury.

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Any opinion on Cressy to beat Draper at 1,75?  He won his last 3 matches as an underdog in straight sets, Draper also won his last 3 in straight sets but beating easier opponents.

 

Haddad Maia is on a 13 game winning streak on grass so it's tempting but it also means she has played a lot of games and might be tired; however yesterday Tsurenko withdrew so yesterday she didn't play which could be a good luck sign for her today? 

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As much as the first set didn't go to a breaker and the next two did, I'd say it's much more likely the first set goes to a breaker than subsequent sets. Once you get past the first set players can start to get affected by fatigue and start to make mistakes. Also you often see the player losing the first set on a breaker folding easily in the second due to the lesser chance of winning the match from a set down. I think you got value. The fact you didn't cash doesn't change that in my eyes. Place enough bets like that and you'll get ahead eventually.

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Yea, my first tho was +25.5 but the odds were only ~1.8 and as you said, players often after losing tiebreaker in first, in 2nd are a little bit looser and flustrated and sooner or later are broken, that what i wanted to avoid 😂.

Edited by rainz
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Anybody here have opinions on the Borna Coric vs Diego Schwartzman match? I don't trust Diego to win this, and would never even consider backing him here. thoughts?

If you saw some of Coric match in Parma.. He seems to be in great form, and is serving the ball huge. He didn't have much trouble transitioning to grass when he won the title in Halle several years ago.. I imagine it's going to be more of the same.. He plays basically the same style with whatever surface you put him on.. just a grinder, and when in form with a massive serve. 

Edited by money44
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