Racing Chat - Thursday 29th July

[The Brigadier]

The ground appears to be drying out at Goodwood but that can be the worst type of tacky ground as it seemed on Wednesday. Hopefully the ground will continue to dry and we can look forward to racing on good ground on the soft side. Here’s my thoughts on Day 3’s ITV races:- 

Goodwood 150

12 promising three year olds go to post for this valuable 10F handicap. The current market leader is Sir Michael Stoute’s Aerion Power who would have won well last time out at Doncaster but for Mark Crehan mistaking the half furlong post for the winning line. A a mistake he won’t make again that’s for sure. He’s been reassessed for that run and has also never raced on anything worse than good to firm so has no appeal to me here what so ever. There’s not a great deal of soft ground form to hand although Ralph Beckett’s Patient Dream won on the soft last time out at Windsor and it is interesting that the winning jockey that day Rossa Ryan stated afterwards that the horse ‘was not enjoying the ground particularly’ which tempers my enthusiasm for him slightly. Middleham trainer Mark Johnstone runs five here in a race he has won three times out of the least eight years and my personal fancy is My Frankel who had excuses for his poor effort last time at Newmarket when the ground may have been too fast and he also played up in the stalls. He’s showed decent form previously on slow ground and there may still be some juice in his mark of 91. 

KING FRANKEL 1 ½ points each way @ 7/1 BetVictor 1/5^th 1234

 

Goodwood 225

Hugo Palmer’s Galileo Gold colt Ebro River is two from two on soft ground and can take this years renewal of the Group 2 Richmond Stakes with regular rider James Doyle doing the steering. He’s run credibly on his last two outings in the Coventry Stakes and  July Stakes on fast ground and may improve further now racing back on a slower surface. Perfect Power is penalised 3lb for his Norfolk victory and is unproven on easy ground whilst Alan King’s Asymmetric finished a length and a half ahead of the selection in the July Stakes last time and is a worthy favourite for this years Goodwood Cup winning trainer. Richard Hannon runs this year’s Super Sprint winner Gubbass but he too has only run on good to firm ground so I’ll be sticking with Ebro River with a small saver on Khunan who’s second to Tuesday’s winner Angel Bleu on soft ground looks smart form now. 

EBRO RIVER 1 ½ points win @ 11/2 William Hill

KHUNAN ½ point win @ 12/1 BetVictor

 

Goodwood 300

An open looking Gordon Stakes run over 12F and is a Group 3 contest for three year olds which has been used in the past as a trial for the St Leger in a couple of months time. Bar the disappointing Belloccio there’s only officially 8lb between the field with Aidan O’Brien’s Wordsworth heading the early exchanges. He has some very decent form to his name this season including a 3rd in the Irish Derby and 2nd in Grand Prix De Paris - both Group 1 races. He copes with any ground and must go well. Yibir impressed at the Newmarket July meeting in winning the Bahrain Trophy but is penalised 3lb for that and may prefer better ground. Also penalised 3lb is Andrew Balding’s Youth Spirit who was last seen when bombing badly in the Epsom Derby. Roger Varian’s Third Realm had Derby and King George winner Adayar 1 1/4L behind when winning the Lingfield Derby Trial in May and although the winner is probably a much more polished performer now was still a smart performance on soft ground. He disappointed when only 5th in the Derby beaten some 11 1/2L on his only start since but that form looks exceptional now with the winner winning the King George, the 3rd the Irish Derby and Grand Prix De Paris and the 7th winning a Grade 1 in America since.  He’s my selection here. 

THIRD REALM 2 points win @ 10/3 Unibet

 

Goodwood 335

The 10F Nassau Stakes is a Group 1 contest for fillies and mares and has attracted a small but select field of 6. Favourite is the James Fanshawe flag bearer Audarya who handles all ground and has some excellent form in her CV including Grade/Group 1 wins at Deauville and at the Breeders Cup. There was nothing wrong with her 3/4L runner up spot to Love at Royal Ascot on her re-appearance in the Prince Of Wales despite the fact the winner and close third Armory have both been beaten since. She’ll strip fitter for that run and is the one to beat here. Lady Bowthorpe is the other half who represents the older generation here and is stepping up to 10F for the first time. She has the same official mark as Audarya and cannot be ruled out if staying. Aidan O’Brien saddles a pair of three year olds in Empress Josephine and Joan Of Arc who were separated by the width of a cigarette paper in the Irish 1000 Guineas on heavy ground. The latter has stepped up from that to take the French Oaks since and with Ryan Moore choosing her is the pick of the Irish pair. Roger Varian’s Zeyaadah is the other interesting runner in the field. She bombed out in the Epsom Oaks but has smart form either side of that and won’t mind the soft ground. My main bet here has to be the Fanshawe runner Audarya but I can’t  resist a small stakes saver on Zeyaadah who’s on the upgrade. 

AUDARYA 2 ½ points win @ 13/8 BetVictor

ZEYAADAH ½ point win @ 12/1 BetVictor

 

Goodwood 410

15 have declared for the 7F nursery which has an open look about it although I do quite fancy the Michael Bell trained Adjuvant who has the assistance of Ryan Moore today. This New Bay colt has won both his starts at Chester and Salisbury over today’s trip on good and good/soft ground so bot( trip and going will hold no fears for him. His latest win came when scooting 2L away from a Roger Varian horse called Sed Maarib who came out and bolted up at Beverley on Tuesday to boost the form. Thrown in stall 1 and we have ourselves a decent each way bet. The Richard Hannon trained Ardbraccan is making her handicap debut and could be very well treated if her 1 1/2L second to 1000 Guineas ante post favourite Inspiral at Newmarket is taken strictly at face value. She’s won a Newmarket maiden since and is a big player here if she can cope with the softer ground. Best outsider maybe the Balding runner Aldbourne who doesn’t look that badly treated off of only 72. 

ADJUVANT 2 points each way @ 4/1 BetVictor 1/5^th 1234

[Zilzalian]

2YO 6F Richmond stakes speed figures

1 Caturra              127+

2 Perfect Power   127

3 Khunan              125

Hearts says perfect power but gotta go with the figures and to be honest value so Caturra it is at around 10/1

I like this race so im going all in on R/FCast

335      I think if Audarya doesnt win we should all pack up and stick to dominoes back in the smoke room. max max max bet, print your own money.

410 another 2yo race not much to go on but will chuck a speculative one in here      South Audley

 

 

[Zilzalian]

Audarya

Every day we see odds on shots many many of them have very little to recommend them. Audarya was very unlucky in france on arc day could have beaten Tarnawa in that.

Went on and won at the breeders cup at an unbelievable price, it then took on Love and arguably had the worst passage and again was a huge price, it also handles any ground. lots think love and or Tarnawa (4th and 6th in the anti post market) could win the Arc so If someone can tell me why Audarya isn't odds on in this race then I would very much appreciate the reasoning. Win or lose that price represents the best value i have seen for any horse this year or last for that matter, says this bloke that hates betting on favs.

[The Equaliser]

21 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Audarya

Every day we see odds on shots many many of them have very little to recommend them. Audarya was very unlucky in france on arc day could have beaten Tarnawa in that.

Went on and won at the breeders cup at an unbelievable price, it then took on Love and arguably had the worst passage and again was a huge price, it also handles any ground. lots think love and or Tarnawa (4th and 6th in the anti post market) could win the Arc so If someone can tell me why Audarya isn't odds on in this race then I would very much appreciate the reasoning. Win or lose that price represents the best value i have seen for any horse this year or last for that matter, says this bloke that hates betting on favs.

Sold.  I just had £10 to win at 3.1 = £20.58 if it wins

[Villa Chris]

Just transferred my life savings to my betting account . It better win now or it’s back to beans on toast every night..... which come to think of it isn’t that bad a thing. 

Edited July 29, 2021 by Villa Chris

[black rabbit]

Qaader    1 50 good   1/2 pt win  10/1   betfair 

Tudor   city   6 15  galway     1/4 pt win   40/1   betfair 

Irish Acclaim   6 55 newc   1/4   pt win    13/1  betfair 

 

P/L   + 112  pts   

[Darran]

My old friend Babytaggle is back out in the 3.55 at Stratford and at a double figure price I think he is value for a small e/w bet. He bumped into another well handicapped horse last time and I think late on he paid for trying to go with the winner. He did at least hold on for 2nd and I think he has a solid chance of at least hitting the frame again.

Babytaggle e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365 (11/1 with them to 4 places if you want the extra place)

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:

Just transferred my life savings to my betting account . It better win now or it’s back to beans on toast every night..... which come to think of it isn’t that bad a thing. 

Steady on, Audarya is not worth half of anyone's betting bank.  It has to give 9lbs to Joan Of Arc which is now promoted as favourite for this event

[The Equaliser]

50 minutes ago, Darran said:

My old friend Babytaggle is back out in the 3.55 at Stratford and at a double figure price I think he is value for a small e/w bet. He bumped into another well handicapped horse last time and I think late on he paid for trying to go with the winner. He did at least hold on for 2nd and I think he has a solid chance of at least hitting the frame again.

Babytaggle e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365 (11/1 with them to 4 places if you want the extra place)

Had £4.30 at 3.45 3TBP = £10.32; Thanks

 

[Zilzalian]

3 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Steady on, Audarya is not worth half of anyone's betting bank.  It has to give 9lbs to Joan Of Arc which is now promoted as favourite for this event

Bigger price for Audarya now and if i barffed myself every time an O'Brien horse was hyped i would never have a bet, every horse he has ever run is the best since Galileo the list is endless and even when they are near the best horse since Galileo they get beat by one of his outsiders. The betting bank comment was tongue in cheek btw. But the rest is reasoned logic, there is no such thing as a dead cert as we all know. My argument is simply it should be odds on on all known form. @The Brigadierreally fancied Fearby on Wednesday for excellent reasons but it didn't win, that's what we as risk takers do, we take a position back our judgement and hope we are right if we are wrong we move on.

[The Equaliser]

16 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Bigger price for Audarya now and if i barffed myself every time an O'Brien horse was hyped i would never have a bet, every horse he has ever run is the best since Galileo the list is endless and even when they are near the best horse since Galileo they get beat by one of his outsiders. The betting bank comment was tongue in cheek btw. But the rest is reasoned logic, there is no such thing as a dead cert as we all know. My argument is simply it should be odds on on all known form. @The Brigadierreally fancied Fearby on Wednesday for excellent reasons but it didn't win, that's what we as risk takers do, we take a position back our judgement and hope we are right if we are wrong we move on.

Very good points you make especially about O'Brien's horses and I reckon that one always has to have a saver bet on his outsider runners as they are not put in the races for fun.  However, none of us would last very long puting half our betting bank on any selections over a long period of time.  I appreciate it was a tongue in cheek remark but I wouldn't want anyone to go over the top with staking especially in highly competitive events.

[The Equaliser]

My Goodwood bets today:

1.50 Tarashoq £2.50 win at 9.4 = £20.58 if it wins

2.25 Khunan £1 win at 18/1 with a £1 ins bet on Asymetric at 2/1

3.00 Yibir £4 win at 6.4 = £21.17

3.35 Audarya £10.00 win at 3.10 (I have put in a £10 lay bet at 2.08 to achieve a £10.00 profit if it runs very well in the race)

4.10 Highland Premier £3.20 win at 7.8 = £20.38 if it wins

4.45 Silverdale £2 win at 16.00 = £29.40 if it wins

5.20 Fantasy Master £2 win at 18 = £33.32

Total stakes £25.70 which is on the high side for festival bets

 

[alancraik]

todays Goodwood selections

a better day yesterday for a small profit, hope for further improvement today

1:50 - Patient Dream 9/2 win

2:25 - Perfect Power 13/2 e/w

3:00 - Yibir 13/2 e/w

3:35 - Audarya 5/2 win

4:10 - Mayfair Stroll 6/1 e/w

4:45 - Typewriter 14/1 e/w

5:20 - Whenthedealisdone 8/1 e/w

[cannotbebeat]

Stratford
1.00 The Bees Knees 3/1

2.10 Regaby 4/1

3.55 Getwaytonewbay 13/2

4.25 No Fixed Charges 4/1

Goodwood
3.00 Wordsworth 3/1

Nottingham
3.10 Halcyon Spirit 9/4

3.45 Roman Mist 7/2

Good luck all CNBB.

[Zilzalian]

17 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

2YO 6F Richmond stakes speed figures

1 Caturra              127+

2 Perfect Power   127

3 Khunan              125

Hearts says perfect power but gotta go with the figures and to be honest value so Caturra it is at around 10/1

I like this race so im going all in on R/FCast

335      I think if Audarya doesnt win we should all pack up and stick to dominoes back in the smoke room. max max max bet, print your own money.

410 another 2yo race not much to go on but will chuck a speculative one in here      South Audley

 

 

Some silly betting swings in the Richmond, perfect power out to 13/2 is weird on what it has done, I am not sure Ebro River is any value at the now 4/1 the fav is the King horse at a very miserly 9/4 its speed figures don't back it up, this is the most interesting race of the day for me.

[roger2256]

July +6.5 

1pt level stakes win only 

17.20 Gd Fantasy Master 12/1

18.45 Gal Vocarium  33/1

Prices as of now b365 

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365 and all 1pt e/w:

1.50 Goodwood - Taraashoq @ 8/1

Has kept his powder relatively dry compared to some of these and I think will certainly be winning races off this mark. Bred to stay middle distances and saw out the mile very well last time to give the impression this will suit. The horse back in third that day has since won a handicap well off 78 so this mark of 86 looks well within reach and although beaten out of sight on heavy ground on debut, hopeful that this ground won't be too soft.

2.25 Goodwood - Gis A Sub @ 11/1

This horse looks well overpriced to me as he's done nothing wrong in two starts and form ties in nicely with a few of these. Pulled clear with a good horse on debut when chinned on the line but it was this one's debut against a horse with a run under its belt (that one subsequently won well next time out too) and then Gis A Sub won at Pontefract from a horse who was 3rd in a French group race next time and the third then went on to be very closely matched with the favourite for this race. 11/1 looks huge.

3.00 Goodwood - Sir Lucan @ 12/1

Brother to Sir Dragonet who did nothing wrong other than when behind Alenquer on seasonal reappearance but probably wasn't fully tuned up and then he beat Wordsworth last time out when upped to 1m5f. Was always likely to improve for middle distances and looks overpriced here with any give in the ground no problem.

3.35 Goodwood - Zeyaadah @ 17/2

I was expecting her to win easier than she did at Newcastle but she'll enjoy the return to a stronger run race here and I had her down as a place certainty in the Oaks before the rain came. She travelled well but never picked up on the ground and I think she retains plenty of potential on her good second at Chester when not having a good run round. These conditions look ideal and I think she can kick on again today.

4.10 Goodwood - Ardbraccan @ 8/1

Any form tied in to Inspiral looks strong and makes me think that this horse is fairly handicapped. Has done nothing wrong, improving with each start, culminating in that 2nd to what I think is a very high class and then winning last time out, digging in to get up. The extra stamina test on this ground will suit and I think this one can go in again.

5.20 Goodwood - A Pint of Bear @ 12/1

This one has good all round pace and is a consistent type so I think can run well up in grade. Was a solid 2nd at York last time and previously rallied well to win at Catterick and whilst needs more here, has 5lbs off his back today and the soft ground at a speedy track can suit. Ought to be up there throughout and can make the frame at a double-figure price.

[azzybear]

prodigiouse blue 2.00

[Villa Chris]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Steady on, Audarya is not worth half of anyone's betting bank.  It has to give 9lbs to Joan Of Arc which is now promoted as favourite for this event

It’s drifted hasn’t it, which doesn’t necessarily mean anything , but I’d be worried about the O’Brien favourite. Good luck, hope it wins for the members on here .

[fd1972uk]

Will jump on soon, saw a few bets on various races. 

Might use a couple of my free bets on a double or so too. 

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Nottingham 3.10

IMPERIAL FLIGHT 2/1

[Wanderlust]

13 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Audarya

Every day we see odds on shots many many of them have very little to recommend them. Audarya was very unlucky in france on arc day could have beaten Tarnawa in that.

Went on and won at the breeders cup at an unbelievable price, it then took on Love and arguably had the worst passage and again was a huge price, it also handles any ground. lots think love and or Tarnawa (4th and 6th in the anti post market) could win the Arc so If someone can tell me why Audarya isn't odds on in this race then I would very much appreciate the reasoning. Win or lose that price represents the best value i have seen for any horse this year or last for that matter, says this bloke that hates betting on favs.

Has to give decent and improving 3yr olds 9lb

And with the ground drying out, that helps Lady Bowthorpe get the trip. Her OR is exactly the same as Audarya. Of the older horses, I prefer L.B

[fd1972uk]

Maybe look at a double later. 

Got money back on 1350 Good Aerion P, will. Do. Towards a future bet. 

[Zilzalian]

20 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

2YO 6F Richmond stakes speed figures

1 Caturra              127+

2 Perfect Power   127

3 Khunan              125

Hearts says perfect power but gotta go with the figures and to be honest value so Caturra it is at around 10/1

I like this race so im going all in on R/FCast

335      I think if Audarya doesnt win we should all pack up and stick to dominoes back in the smoke room. max max max bet, print your own money.

410 another 2yo race not much to go on but will chuck a speculative one in here      South Audley

 

 

No excuses for Caturra didnt handle the ground but what a shocker from Hanagan (usually rock solid) but the figures were held up by Khunan so i am reasonably pleased with said figures.

[azzybear]

South odly 4.10 ew

[fd1972uk]

Double out, had used a couple of free bets using Joan of Arc and Aurdrya, not the best choices. 

[Zilzalian]

Well I just can't work that out to be honest, there is no way Audarya was right and questions should be asked but we have to accept that it is all part and parcel of this game and sometimes you have to take it on the chin. Cats dead, computer is in pieces wife aint talking to me, and i only have one arm and one leg left. but the trees are still green and the sky is still blue, and the grand kids are still healthy.

[Villa Chris]

Anyone know where does cheap tins of beans, like really cheap .

[Wanderlust]

17 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Well I just can't work that out to be honest, there is no way Audarya was right and questions should be asked but we have to accept that it is all part and parcel of this game and sometimes you have to take it on the chin. Cats dead, computer is in pieces wife aint talking to me, and i only have one arm and one leg left. but the trees are still green and the sky is still blue, and the grand kids are still healthy.

Thats why there are no poor bookies.

You have very strong opinions, which very often are the complete opposite to the ones I have. Neither of us are right 100% of the time. Their books will always balance in their favour.

Apart from the fact that horses simply are not machines and can just have an offday, with regards to the above race, honestly I did not fancy Audarya.

Racing at a track which she has had no experience. Racing against another 5 yr old with the exact same rating, who has looked very good recently and that form is backed up.

Throw in the mix several 3 yr olds, all in receipt of 9lb, that are improving. I just thought it was a bet fraught with dangers.

Anyway...always the next one. Every loser just makes the next winner all the nicer.

[Villa Chris]

2 hours ago, Wanderlust said:

Has to give decent and improving 3yr olds 9lb

And with the ground drying out, that helps Lady Bowthorpe get the trip. Her OR is exactly the same as Audarya. Of the older horses, I prefer L.B

The winner Lady Bowthorpe I noticed had some very good RPRs , on par with the horse in question. That’s why I’m not keen on betting on 3 year olds because they are so hard to calculate IMO. Some literally improve a tonne with each race and I feel like I’m going in blind by backing them. Then there’s the distance thing, where you never know who’s going to be able to step up in trip.