Racing Chat - Thursday 29th July

[yossa6133]

Aldi premiums only 29p, not bad.

[alexcaruso808]

15 minutes ago, Wanderlust said:

 

Anyway...always the next one. Every loser just makes the next winner all the nicer.

How very true! 

[The Brigadier]

23 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

The ground appears to be drying out at Goodwood but that can be the worst type of tacky ground as it seemed on Wednesday. Hopefully the ground will continue to dry and we can look forward to racing on good ground on the soft side. Here’s my thoughts on Day 3’s ITV races:- 

Goodwood 150

12 promising three year olds go to post for this valuable 10F handicap. The current market leader is Sir Michael Stoute’s Aerion Power who would have won well last time out at Doncaster but for Mark Crehan mistaking the half furlong post for the winning line. A a mistake he won’t make again that’s for sure. He’s been reassessed for that run and has also never raced on anything worse than good to firm so has no appeal to me here what so ever. There’s not a great deal of soft ground form to hand although Ralph Beckett’s Patient Dream won on the soft last time out at Windsor and it is interesting that the winning jockey that day Rossa Ryan stated afterwards that the horse ‘was not enjoying the ground particularly’ which tempers my enthusiasm for him slightly. Middleham trainer Mark Johnstone runs five here in a race he has won three times out of the least eight years and my personal fancy is My Frankel who had excuses for his poor effort last time at Newmarket when the ground may have been too fast and he also played up in the stalls. He’s showed decent form previously on slow ground and there may still be some juice in his mark of 91. 

KING FRANKEL 1 ½ points each way @ 7/1 BetVictor 1/5^th 1234

 

Goodwood 225

Hugo Palmer’s Galileo Gold colt Ebro River is two from two on soft ground and can take this years renewal of the Group 2 Richmond Stakes with regular rider James Doyle doing the steering. He’s run credibly on his last two outings in the Coventry Stakes and  July Stakes on fast ground and may improve further now racing back on a slower surface. Perfect Power is penalised 3lb for his Norfolk victory and is unproven on easy ground whilst Alan King’s Asymmetric finished a length and a half ahead of the selection in the July Stakes last time and is a worthy favourite for this years Goodwood Cup winning trainer. Richard Hannon runs this year’s Super Sprint winner Gubbass but he too has only run on good to firm ground so I’ll be sticking with Ebro River with a small saver on Khunan who’s second to Tuesday’s winner Angel Bleu on soft ground looks smart form now. 

EBRO RIVER 1 ½ points win @ 11/2 William Hill

KHUNAN ½ point win @ 12/1 BetVictor

 

Goodwood 300

An open looking Gordon Stakes run over 12F and is a Group 3 contest for three year olds which has been used in the past as a trial for the St Leger in a couple of months time. Bar the disappointing Belloccio there’s only officially 8lb between the field with Aidan O’Brien’s Wordsworth heading the early exchanges. He has some very decent form to his name this season including a 3rd in the Irish Derby and 2nd in Grand Prix De Paris - both Group 1 races. He copes with any ground and must go well. Yibir impressed at the Newmarket July meeting in winning the Bahrain Trophy but is penalised 3lb for that and may prefer better ground. Also penalised 3lb is Andrew Balding’s Youth Spirit who was last seen when bombing badly in the Epsom Derby. Roger Varian’s Third Realm had Derby and King George winner Adayar 1 1/4L behind when winning the Lingfield Derby Trial in May and although the winner is probably a much more polished performer now was still a smart performance on soft ground. He disappointed when only 5th in the Derby beaten some 11 1/2L on his only start since but that form looks exceptional now with the winner winning the King George, the 3rd the Irish Derby and Grand Prix De Paris and the 7th winning a Grade 1 in America since.  He’s my selection here. 

THIRD REALM 2 points win @ 10/3 Unibet

 

Goodwood 335

The 10F Nassau Stakes is a Group 1 contest for fillies and mares and has attracted a small but select field of 6. Favourite is the James Fanshawe flag bearer Audarya who handles all ground and has some excellent form in her CV including Grade/Group 1 wins at Deauville and at the Breeders Cup. There was nothing wrong with her 3/4L runner up spot to Love at Royal Ascot on her re-appearance in the Prince Of Wales despite the fact the winner and close third Armory have both been beaten since. She’ll strip fitter for that run and is the one to beat here. Lady Bowthorpe is the other half who represents the older generation here and is stepping up to 10F for the first time. She has the same official mark as Audarya and cannot be ruled out if staying. Aidan O’Brien saddles a pair of three year olds in Empress Josephine and Joan Of Arc who were separated by the width of a cigarette paper in the Irish 1000 Guineas on heavy ground. The latter has stepped up from that to take the French Oaks since and with Ryan Moore choosing her is the pick of the Irish pair. Roger Varian’s Zeyaadah is the other interesting runner in the field. She bombed out in the Epsom Oaks but has smart form either side of that and won’t mind the soft ground. My main bet here has to be the Fanshawe runner Audarya but I can’t  resist a small stakes saver on Zeyaadah who’s on the upgrade. 

AUDARYA 2 ½ points win @ 13/8 BetVictor

ZEYAADAH ½ point win @ 12/1 BetVictor

 

Goodwood 410

15 have declared for the 7F nursery which has an open look about it although I do quite fancy the Michael Bell trained Adjuvant who has the assistance of Ryan Moore today. This New Bay colt has won both his starts at Chester and Salisbury over today’s trip on good and good/soft ground so bot( trip and going will hold no fears for him. His latest win came when scooting 2L away from a Roger Varian horse called Sed Maarib who came out and bolted up at Beverley on Tuesday to boost the form. Thrown in stall 1 and we have ourselves a decent each way bet. The Richard Hannon trained Ardbraccan is making her handicap debut and could be very well treated if her 1 1/2L second to 1000 Guineas ante post favourite Inspiral at Newmarket is taken strictly at face value. She’s won a Newmarket maiden since and is a big player here if she can cope with the softer ground. Best outsider maybe the Balding runner Aldbourne who doesn’t look that badly treated off of only 72. 

ADJUVANT 2 points each way @ 4/1 BetVictor 1/5^th 1234

No good today - a day for the layers looking at the results. Loss of 14 points on day. Fridays selections up soon.

[Zilzalian]

2 minutes ago, Wanderlust said:

Thats why there are no poor bookies.

You have very strong opinions, which very often are the complete opposite to the ones I have. Neither of us are right 100% of the time. Their books will always balance in their favour.

Apart from the fact that horses simply are not machines and can just have an offday, with regards to the above race, honestly I did not fancy Audarya.

Racing at a track which she has had no experience. Racing against another 5 yr old with the exact same rating, who has looked very good recently and that form is backed up.

Throw in the mix several 3 yr olds, all in receipt of 9lb, that are improving. I just thought it was a bet fraught with dangers.

Anyway...always the next one. Every loser just makes the next winner all the nicer.

Getting beat wasn't the issue with me to be honest, happens all the time but bottom line it had the best form in the race by far and that run was all wrong so questions have to be asked, what annoyed me more was all the butt licking of Emma Banks before and after and not a mention of the original fav (was 6/4 out to 11/4) not showing up, might sound like bad eggs from me but can you imagine John Mccirrick or Francome's reaction to that race? I am curious to what Fanshawe has to say. oddly enough the last time i was so involved in a horse and its chance v the betting and so perplexed was when a horse called Gorytus 40 odd years ago was beaten it ran with its dick out and subsequently it was found to have been doped. so its more about integrity. I am a strong believer if you cant take losing you shouldn't bet and yes they are not machines and yes there maybe many factors usually idiot jockeys that get horses beat. One more thing most people on here and in the media tipped up Audarya

[Wanderlust]

1 minute ago, Zilzalian said:

Getting beat wasn't the issue with me to be honest, happens all the time but bottom line it had the best form in the race by far and that run was all wrong so questions have to be asked, what annoyed me more was all the butt licking of Emma Banks before and after and not a mention of the original fav (was 6/4 out to 11/4) not showing up, might sound like bad eggs from me but can you imagine John Mccirrick or Francome's reaction to that race? I am curious to what Fanshawe has to say. oddly enough the last time i was so involved in a horse and its chance v the betting and so perplexed was when a horse called Gorytus 40 odd years ago was beaten it ran with its dick out and subsequently it was found to have been doped. so its more about integrity. I am a strong believer if you cant take losing you shouldn't bet and yes they are not machines and yes there maybe many factors usually idiot jockeys that get horses beat. One more thing most people on here and in the media tipped up Audarya

Fanshawe will say it didnt act around Goodwood, end of.

The result, regardless of who tipped Audarya, was not as big a surprise as what you are making out. Its OR is 117, same as the winner. So your argument ends right there.

Audarya was actually backed near the off, as O'briens horse drifted.

Hindsight is 20/20 and all that. I did not back the winner as I was not sure she would stay, but all the signs were there as she has been very strong at the end of her races over 10f. My opinion was IF she stayed, she would win.

[Zilzalian]

3 minutes ago, Wanderlust said:

Fanshawe will say it didnt act around Goodwood, end of.

The result, regardless of who tipped Audarya, was not as big a surprise as what you are making out. Its OR is 117, same as the winner. So your argument ends right there.

Audarya was actually backed near the off, as O'briens horse drifted.

Hindsight is 20/20 and all that. I did not back the winner as I was not sure she would stay, but all the signs were there as she has been very strong at the end of her races over 10f. My opinion was IF she stayed, she would win.

Sounds like you didn't have a bet in the race, from all you have said, i ask myself why was that with such strong opinions. Anyway its all history now tomorrow is another day.

[Wanderlust]

3 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Sounds like you didn't have a bet in the race, from all you have said, i ask myself why was that with such strong opinions. Anyway its all history now tomorrow is another day.

I actually backed the second.

Like I said I wasnt sure Lady Bowthorpe would stay and with the 3yr olds getting 9lb, it was too risky. 

My strong opinion, that I explained PRIOR to the race, was that of the 5 yr olds, I preferred Lady Bowthorpe and that I did not fancy the one that you were strong about.

Anyway, like you said, its history and no real benefit over analyzing everything.

I do agree with your statement that tomorrow is another day!! Still got Galway Festival to enjoy today, though

[Zilzalian]

I watched Burning Victory's race on the flat in France 48 days ago and it was very impressive, 20/1 is a tasty price i will have a nibble at that and hope the hurdles don't get in the way.

[Darran]

I really hope Babytaggle can find a race before the summer is out. Ran another cracker to finish 2nd again and the form of his first 2nd was franked with the winner going in again today despite going up massively in the weights. At the very least it is good to see that my thinking he ran a hell of a race at Huntingdon back in May has turned out to be profitable when he went back into handicaps.

[The Equaliser]

11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

My Goodwood bets today:

1.50 Tarashoq £2.50 win at 9.4 = £20.58 if it wins

2.25 Khunan £1 win at 18/1 with a £1 ins bet on Asymetric at 2/1

3.00 Yibir £4 win at 6.4 = £21.17

3.35 Audarya £10.00 win at 3.10 (I have put in a £10 lay bet at 2.08 to achieve a £10.00 profit if it runs very well in the race)

4.10 Highland Premier £3.20 win at 7.8 = £20.38 if it wins

4.45 Silverdale £2 win at 16.00 = £29.40 if it wins

5.20 Fantasy Master £2 win at 18 = £33.32

Total stakes £25.70 which is on the high side for festival bets

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Only Asymetric won for me today as a cover bet .  Therefore a net loss of £22.70 in the book.  My new balance is £678.35

I did get nervous about Audarya drifting and as I had to go out I put in a lay bet at 3.10 which luckily for me did get matched so didn't lose anything on the race.  I do agree with @Zilzalianthat there should be some explanation given regarding the poor running of the horse.  After all this is a class 1, group 1 race, not a class 7 event. When I see this type of thing I can't help thinking that racing is fixed and that the whole lot of the established bookies and media are all in on it by fleecing the general public wholesale of their hard earned cash by prormoting so called good things that in reality should not have turned up for the race

Also luckily for me @Darran's tip  (Many, many thanks) paid off and I almost can't believe that my real loss for the day was only £2.39

Another day at Goodwood tomorrow; Let's hope that @The Brigadierhas a change of luck.  He deserves it