Tennis Tips - March 8 - March 14

[CzechPunter]

Karen Khachanov to beat Mackenzie McDonald at 1.53 with Pinnacle

I also think that Khachanov can do well in this tournament and it will all start with him beating McDonald soundly hopefully. McDonald was nothing special yesterday, there were plenty of awful line calls in his match against Travaglia and most went his way honestly. Which, in such a tight match, did influence the result. The conditions are fast enough for Khachanov to be able to hit through McDonald.

[darko08]

Gerasimov to beat Hanfmann at 1.40 with bet365

I also like this match. The odds are not high but Gerasimov is really good playing on indoors. In Montpellier he beat Murray, Bedene, Davidovich and lost in the SFs against Goffin in a 3 set match. In Rotterdam he lost in the 1st round but it was against Tsitsipas and it was tight (7-6, 7-5). The last year here he reached the SFs, beating Ruusuvuori, Novak and Goffin and lost against Aliassime. As I said, I really like him when he plays indoors and here is where he has his best results. Hanfmann best surface is clay. 

[Robinnho]

3 hours ago, darko08 said:

Gerasimov to beat Hanfmann at 1.40 with bet365

 

 

4 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Karen Khachanov to beat Mackenzie McDonald at 1.53 with Pinnacle

 

 

I have a Combo on the above bets.

Congrats Darko08 ..............&

Good Luck CzechPunter!

[Robinnho]

9 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Karen Khachanov to beat Mackenzie McDonald at 1.53 with Pinnacle

I also think that Khachanov can do well in this tournament and it will all start with him beating McDonald soundly hopefully. McDonald was nothing special yesterday, there were plenty of awful line calls in his match against Travaglia and most went his way honestly. Which, in such a tight match, did influence the result. The conditions are fast enough for Khachanov to be able to hit through McDonald.

7-6 (7-4) & 6-4

Congrats CzechPunter

[darko08]

Gerasimov to beat Medvedev at 6.50 with bet365

There is a match from this last year tournament that I still remember quite well, and it is the match Medvedev played against Simon in his second round (6-4, 6-0). He played horrible and his attitude was also horrible. He spent all the match complaining about everything and he also smashed some rackets. He has never achieved good results here and he lost his last match in Rotterdam against Lajovic in 2 sets (7-6, 6-4). Anyways, as I said before, Gerasimov is a really dangerous player on indoors and he's in a good form. He has won against Hanfmann in his first match here (6-2, 6-0). They have played 2 times before and Danill won both. St Petersburg 2019 (7-5, 7-5) and Tokyo (6-7, 6-3, 6-3).

[Foo_Fighter]

17 hours ago, darko08 said:

I add this one. 

Olmos (+6.00 Gamest) to beat Podoroska at 1.67 with Pinnacle

I think the line is just to big. Olmos has already played 2 matches here and she beat Sherif in straight sets (Sherif was priced at 1.20). Podoroska did not end well her australian season. She lost easily against Vekic in the 2nd round of the AO (6-2, 6-2) and in the 1st round of the Phililp Island Trophy against Begu (6-3, 6-3). Olmos is better known for doubles but I have seen her and she's not a bad player on singles despite her ranking. Podoroska last match was against Begu and it was 1 month ago. Considering Olmos has already played 2 matches here (including a win in 2 sets against Sherif) I think she can cover this handicap. This match starts in 1 hour.

Thanks an awful lot man. ??✌️✔️

[darko08]

Herbert to beat Norrie at 1.91 with William Hill

I like Herbert for this match. He's really good on indoors and he beat Nishikori easily (6-1, 6-4) in his first round while Norrie had problems with Lestienne (6-4, 6-7, 6-3). None of these players was on a good form but Herbert has showed more and i have seen him playing really good matches on this surface. 

[CzechPunter]

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to beat Arthur Rinderknech at 1.44 with William Hill

I'm not a massive fan of backing ADF indoors, but he looked good to me when I saw him last week. I also got to catch Rinderknech against Kukushkin and both players were average at best. Kukushkin was serving poorly and making a lot of errors, ADF should be way better.

[888888]

Has anyone watched Basilashvili? Federer wasn't that impressive to be such a huge favorite, Evans has no nerves he choked on important points.

[CzechPunter]

Didn't see either match, but my info is that Federer was better than expected after such a long break. That said, betting-wise, it's either a bet on Basilashvili or no bet at all.

[bet4fun]

6 hours ago, 888888 said:

Has anyone watched Basilashvili? Federer wasn't that impressive to be such a huge favorite, Evans has no nerves he choked on important points.

cmon he is playing after almost 1 yr 3 months. what do u expect from him. daniel evans is a tough opponent because he comes back fighting for every point and more physical. federer is class. he will improve.

[bet4fun]

pegula had the biggest choke up of this year so far. 7-5, 4-1 40-15 up. she chokes and does not break. wins the next game and chokes for 11 games. wow. no wonder she is not in top 10 and does not deserve

[four-leaf]

I've seen Pegula v Bianca Andreescu in the Newport final, She won first set 6-0 and after that it was all about Bianca. Nobody has even mentioned that Pegula is a top 10 player or deserves to be so. She isn't better than her ranking.

[four-leaf]

Has anyone seen the servingcapacity of Astra Sharma? I saw her yesterday, so high level of serving by Astra. I mean she was completely awesome. Leylah Annie Fernandez just got owned by Astra. I've never seen the aussie as anyone particularly good but now in Guadalajara she is in some mean awesome form. She can take out anyone with that level of serving that she produces right now.

[888888]

3 hours ago, bet4fun said:

cmon he is playing after almost 1 yr 3 months. what do u expect from him. daniel evans is a tough opponent because he comes back fighting for every point and more physical. federer is class. he will improve.

i am not saying the opposite, i totally don't care that he is impressive or not plays well or plays bad, i only cared about the value of the @5.5 odds on Basi

[four-leaf]

11 hours ago, 888888 said:

Has anyone watched Basilashvili? Federer wasn't that impressive to be such a huge favorite, Evans has no nerves he choked on important points.

Good thinking! I hope you made a minor fortune or bigger by betting on Basi.

[CzechPunter]

Did anyone see Rune against Paire?

[Larkin22]

4 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Did anyone see Rune against Paire?

He looked ok, he didn't need to play particularly well though. Paire beat himself really and Rune just looked happy to be there. I think Rune could struggle if he got involved with someone who can rally, he didn't look the quickest. Definitely got potential though for someone so young.

I've not seen much of Delbonis recently but I definitely wouldn't be taking Rune myself.

Edited March 11, 2021 by Larkin22

[darko08]

Herbert (+4.5 Games) to beat Tsitsipas at 1.9 with Pinnacle

As I said before, Herbert is really good playing on indoors. Neither Nishikori (6-1, 6-4) nor Norrie (6-3, 6-4) broke his serve here. Tsitsipas has won against Pouille (6-2, 6-3). I haven't seen this match but I'm not impressed by this win. As I said on previous posts, I saw Pouille against Horansky, Maden and Kamke and he played really bad. I even bet against him on his first round match against Bonzi (7-6, 6-2) in Montpellier. Tsitsipas did well in Rotterdam but he did not have easy matches there. He had a tight match against Gerasimov (7-6, 7-5) and he dropped sets against Hurkacz (6-4, 4-6, 7-5) and Kachanov (4-6, 6-3, 7-5). He finally lost against Rublev in 2 sets. Tsitsipas is so much better from the baseline but I expect Herbert to play really aggressive, serving well and winning a lot of points on the net as he did against Kei. They only played once before and Herbert won it in straight sets but it is irrelevant cause it was in 2018.

[darko08]

And I add one more, my last bet for this week most likely.

Muguruza (-3.5 Games) to beat Mertens at 1.80 with bet365

Muguruza has won 15 of her last 18 matches and she covered this line on all those wins, even against players as Sakkari, Sabalenka (2 times), Swiatek, Kenin,... She's been very dominant and her 3 defeats were against Barty, Osaka and Kvitova. IMO, if Muguruza had won the match points she had against Osaka in the AO she would have won the tournament. Her way to the SFs here has been more complicated than Mertens' way as she had to face Swiatek (6-0, 6-4) and Sabalenka (3-6, 6-3, 6-2) in her last 2 matches. Mertens came to the AO in a good form but her match against Muchova was disappointing. After that, she hasn't convinced me at all either. She had a tough match against Tomova in her 1st round here (4-6, 6-2, 6-4). Then, she won against Rogers (6-3, 6-3), García (6-4, 6-2) and Pegula (5-7, 7-5, 6-0). Rogers apparently had physical problems and García is out of form. As some punters have pointed, Pegula was 1 set up and leading the 2nd set 4-1 (15-40) but she choked. She even had 3 match points when she was 5-4. Besides, there's something that shocks me about Mertens and it's her really bad record against the best players of the circuit (with some really big defeats).

[CzechPunter]

Nothing for me today, though I somewhat like Muguruza. I wanted to back Zuk in some capacity, but he needed a MTO and plenty of luck yesterday.

[darko08]

I haven't seen Sinner against Gaston but he could have lost against Barrere (Barrere was serving for the match but he took very bad decisions on that game and he finally lost). In Montpellier Sinner took a medical timeout in his match against Bedene for some back problems. I remember he said in an interview that his back problems did not affect his game and he said he lost because he did not play well but then he did not play in Rotterdam... I had doubts about Medvedev but he has won easily against Gerasimov. I think Medvedev should win... but still worried about his intentions. I would not like to put money on him and then see him repeating the same pathetic performance he showed against Simon. Opinions on this match..?

 

Edited March 12, 2021 by darko08

[CzechPunter]

I think staying away is the best option honestly. Both can be mercurial, but also poor at times. If I had to make a bet, I'd be on Medvedev outright.

[liquidglass]

1 hour ago, darko08 said:

I haven't seen Sinner against Gaston but he could have lost against Barrere (Barrere was serving for the match but he took very bad decisions on that game and he finally lost). In Montpellier Sinner took a medical timeout in his match against Bedene for some back problems. I remember he said in an interview that his back problems did not affect his game and he said he lost because he did not play well but then he did not play in Rotterdam... I had doubts about Medvedev but he has won easily against Gerasimov. I think Medvedev should win... but still worried about his intentions. I would not like to put money on him and then see him repeating the same pathetic performance he showed against Simon. Opinions on this match..?

 

Something does not feel right about backing Medvedev regardless of his easy victory over Gerasimov. And since Simov himself had played so much tennis prior, he really could not be used as a yardstick. I do not care about what Sinner played against Gaston or Barrere. I am inclined to rely on his pedigree as a man who is going to eventually reside among the top 5 sooner or later. There will be nothing strange if he does a Djokovic on us and finds real form to push into the later stages. Odds movement is positive.

[CzechPunter]

Arina Rodionova to beat Kathinka Von Deichmann at 3.16 with Pinnacle

Taking a bit of risk with this one, as Rodionova is yet to win a match this year. However, I think that she has a good chance here. Von Deichmann is a big step down from the likes of Garcia or even Trevisan, i.e. the opponents Rodionova has faced so far. Von Deichmann is an average player at best and she's never been ranked as high as Rodionova. She's arguably the favorite regardless, but 3.16 for Rodionova? I'll take that!

[AgaRadwanska]

any thoughts on Bouzkova vs. Sorribes Tormo, guys? 

[darko08]

39 minutes ago, AgaRadwanska said:

any thoughts on Bouzkova vs. Sorribes Tormo, guys? 

Considering what both players showed in the australian season Bouzkova should win this match. Anyways, I haven't seen them here so don't take my words too seriously..

[darko08]

Herbert (+2.5 Games) to beat Humbert at 1.81 with Pinnacle

I go with Herbert again cause I wasn't expecting these odds. Today Humbert could have lost against Rinderknech. Rinderknech was serving for the match but finally he choked. I really like Humbert but he has been disappointing this year. He started the year losing in the 1st round of the Murray Valley Open against Duckworth (7-6, 6-4). Then, he received a painful comeback against Kyrgios after beating Uchiyama in 4 sets in the AO. His results in Montpellier and Rotterdam were not good either. He suffered to beat Gombos (6-3, 6-7) and Griekspoor (6-7, 7-6, 7-6), before losing easily against RBA (6-3, 6-3). In Rotterdam he lost in the 1st round against Chardy (6-4, 6-7, 6-7). Here, he has beat Tsonga (6-3, 6-4), who is not competitive at all right now, and Rinderknech (4-6, 7-5, 7-6) after saving a MP when Rinderknech was serving for the match. Herbert came here in a bad form but here he has showed his best tennis. He has beat Nishikori (6-1, 6-4), Norrie (6-3, 6-4) and Tsitsipas (6-7, 6-4, 6-2).

[bet4fun]

15 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

I think staying away is the best option honestly. Both can be mercurial, but also poor at times. If I had to make a bet, I'd be on Medvedev outright.

thankfully the opponents are so poor that medvedev inspite of his temper issues shall win. he has already lost two tournaments and the list will be long at the end of the season because of his temper issues.

[bet4fun]

2 hours ago, darko08 said:

Herbert (+2.5 Games) to beat Humbert at 1.81 with Pinnacle

I go with Herbert again cause I wasn't expecting these odds. Today Humbert could have lost against Rinderknech. Rinderknech was serving for the match but finally he choked. I really like Humbert but he has been disappointing this year. He started the year losing in the 1st round of the Murray Valley Open against Duckworth (7-6, 6-4). Then, he received a painful comeback against Kyrgios after beating Uchiyama in 4 sets in the AO. His results in Montpellier and Rotterdam were not good either. He suffered to beat Gombos (6-3, 6-7) and Griekspoor (6-7, 7-6, 7-6), before losing easily against RBA (6-3, 6-3). In Rotterdam he lost in the 1st round against Chardy (6-4, 6-7, 6-7). Here, he has beat Tsonga (6-3, 6-4), who is not competitive at all right now, and Rinderknech (4-6, 7-5, 7-6) after saving a MP when Rinderknech was serving for the match. Herbert came here in a bad form but here he has showed his best tennis. He has beat Nishikori (6-1, 6-4), Norrie (6-3, 6-4) and Tsitsipas (6-7, 6-4, 6-2).

all three sets can go in tie breakers as well.